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Arash

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Dec 10, 2005, 7:39:36 AM12/10/05

AntiWar
December 10, 2005

Referring Nuke-Threats to Security Council

Dr. James Gordon Prather
Nuclear weapons physicist
Nuclear bomb tester at Lawrence Livermore
Technical director of nuclear bomb testings at Sandia
Chief scientist of the U.S. Army
U.S. Navy veteran

Last month the New York Times reported that unnamed senior "intelligence officials"
had told them that – as part of a campaign to increase international pressure on
Iran – they had "briefed" International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General
Mohamed El-Baradei and senior staff in mid-July on some of the sensitive
"intelligence" they had gleaned from a "stolen Iranian laptop computer".
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f552c361c6d02dfc

They presented what they claimed was the strongest "evidence" yet that Iran must be
developing lightweight compact nukes for its Shahab ballistic missile, which could
"reach Israel".

However, "sources close to the IAEA" said what they had been briefed on appeared to
be aerodynamic design work for a ballistic missile reentry vehicle, not a nuclear
warhead.

Furthermore, according to David Albright, a sometime consultant to the IAEA, the
information on the "stolen Iranian laptop" is all about reentry vehicles and does not
even mention "nuclear" or "nuclear warhead".

The distinction between "reentry vehicle" and "warhead" is all important.

During the Iran-Iraq war in the late 1980s, each side launched 300 to 400 Scud
ballistic missiles – carrying high explosive warheads – at each other's cities.

The Scud is a liquid-fueled single-stage missile.

The entire missile – containing the warhead – reenters the atmosphere, frequently
tumbling end-over-end, breaking up into several pieces.

It is a very expensive, very inaccurate delivery vehicle for high-explosives.

Since then the Iranians have been attempting to develop a super-Scud ballistic
missile wherein a cone-shaped "reentry" vehicle – in which the warhead is protected
from the intense shock-heating of reentry into the atmosphere – detaches from the
missile in flight.

A properly designed reentry vehicle can deliver a warhead with great accuracy.

Of course, if you've got a lightweight compact nuke capable of being delivered by
ballistic missile you don't need great accuracy.

So, whether the "briefing" unnamed senior intelligence officials made to El-Baradei
and other IAEA officials convinced them that Iran had a relatively sophisticated
ballistic missile reentry vehicle development program is irrelevant.

Why?

The IAEA has two missions:

(a) to facilitate the international transfer of nuclear-related technologies and
materials, and
(b) to ensure – insofar as is possible – that "source and special nuclear materials"
are not used in furtherance of some military purpose.

Under the Iranian Safeguards Agreement – in force since 1974 – Iran agreed to allow
IAEA inspectors to satisfy themselves that no amount of Iranian uranium or
plutonium – however physically or chemically transformed – is being used or has been
used "in furtherance of any military purpose". [See: Iran Safeguards Agreement
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc214.pdf ]

However, under that agreement the IAEA is ONLY authorized to inspect facilities and
activities that Iran has "declared".

In 2003, at our insistence and at the urging of the IAEA Board, Iran signed an
Additional Protocol to their Safeguards Agreement.
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Factsheets/English/sg_overview.html

The Iranian Parliament has yet to ratify it, but, pending ratification, the Iranians
volunteered to cooperate with the IAEA as if the Additional Protocol was in force.

Among other things, the Iranians have allowed El-Baradei to inspect any Iranian
facility he had good reason to suspect housed materials and/or activities that should
have been "declared", but hadn't been.

At our insistence, the Iranians even allowed El-Baradei to visit certain Iranian
military research and development sites at Parchin and elsewhere where we suspected
the Iranians were doing something we don't want them to do.

Maybe we're right.

Maybe they are.

But, as of now, El-Baradei has yet to find any indication that Iran is or has been
engaged in any activity involving the use of source or special nuclear materials in
furtherance of any military purpose.

In any case, unless El-Baradei finds materials and/or activities at those sites that
should have been Safeguarded – but were not – then under the IAEA Statute he is
"prohibited" from telling us or anyone else what he does find there.

For all those "senior intelligence officials" know, El-Baradei may already have known
about the Iranian ballistic missile reentry vehicle development program.

In any case, whether Iran has such a ballistic missile program or not is NONE of the
IAEA's business.

In fact, as the 24 September 2005 resolution of the IAEA Board of Governors
explicitly acknowledged, these are "questions that are within the competence of the
Security Council, as the organ bearing the main responsibility for the maintenance of
international peace and security".

So, since the IAEA Board won't, Condi-baby is threatening to take Iran's suspected
nuke-missile program directly to the Security Council herself.

That might not be a good idea. Some Council member might note that "Israel" almost
certainly has lightweight compact nukes mounted on ballistic missiles capable of
"reaching Iran".

* Physicist James Gordon Prather has served as a policy implementing official for
national security-related technical matters in the Federal Energy Agency, the Energy
Research and Development Administration, the Department of Energy, the Office of the
Secretary of Defense and the Department of the Army. Dr. Prather also served as
legislative assistant for national security affairs to U.S. Sen. Henry Bellmon,
R-Okla. --ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee and member of the Senate
Energy Committee and Appropriations Committee. Dr. Prather had earlier worked as a
nuclear weapons physicist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
(http://www.llnl.gov) in California and Sandia National Laboratory
(http://www.sandia.gov) in New Mexico. http://www.antiwar.com/prather

IAEA and Iran
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/index.shtml

Setting the Record Straight about Iran's Nuclear Program
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/a19f89b941a33707

Iranian nuke warheads
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/9d475a1b45c388d5

AIPAC statement on the U.S. administration's policy on Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0c5663f63d76e5c0?hl=en

IAEA is doing Israel's bidding
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/953912efce75cbd9?hl=en

Without Discrimination
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/e2a592e4c4c6fcf8?hl=en

Nuclear terrorism
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/7254647c13390f5a?hl=en

Neo-Crazies Already Planning Beyond Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/470563f4bdf3cb36?hl=en

Authoritative mis-information on Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/66bbad26c0f03d49

"Stolen Iranian Laptop", GLADIO's new campaign of misinformation
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f552c361c6d02dfc

New York Times, Nuclear Weapons and Iran:
Stupidity, Laziness or Déjà vu All Over Again?
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f2718b3d938eaed2
Iran's transparency
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/b385feaa1916d4d2

Whoops! There she goes again
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/6f573bd90d5e1ee1

Fixing and forging intelligence
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/4c6663c968fd5f6c?hl=en

Clumsy forgeries, Italian style
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/75bf490e791b0806

Stifling neo-crazy media sycophants
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/8790e709a9a122b4?hl=en

After 2 years of intrusive go-anywhere see-anything ask-anybody inspections!
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/a545047699722ca7?hl=en

Nobel's peaceful kick to the groin
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/22f9662d106ce9c4?hl=en

Bolton the Peacemaker
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/de17232f52db3933?hl=en

Saving Face
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/7da8706c13c8a059?hl=en

West does not seek the elimination of nukes, but rather the establishment of nuclear
monopoly
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/502efbdfaa7622f7?hl=en

Unratified additional protocol
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1b2b77819b38d9e3?hl=en

The high price of hounding Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/7c854d944d6e061d?hl=en

Such a Blot
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/43ee2e2149e17310?hl=en

Weapons of Mass Murder
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0f3f87b645a72fde?hl=en

Neocrazies Foiled
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/86df9c0e9c38d475?hl=en

Iran knocks Europe out
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/497a81cb3c315c65?hl=en

UN opens a Pandora's Box of "Iran exceptionalism"
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/24bfe5a318d9a222?hl=en

There is Nothing to refer to UN Security Council
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/76824d9387903d4a?hl=en

WMD Postmortem
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0d02537756cafca8?hl=en

No wonder the West is so mad at Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/83e63797f1a1af3b?hl=en

Bolton in a China Shop
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/9927bb4f65924e34?hl=en

JEW media sycophants & 36% HEU - IRAN told the truth, yet JEW keeps lying
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f90a6eef507f10a0?hl=en

Past Arguments Don't Square With Current Iran Policy
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f53d3a05bc5403c1?hl=en

The fuel behind Iran's nuclear drive
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/2fcf81313deb4ae0?hl=en

The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0d0dcf76abbaafb1?hl=en

NO Nuclear double standards
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/8e41f4a8a1a3e04c?hl=en

Backlash Builds Against Cheney's 'Guns of August'
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/8286b2b389247d0a?hl=en

An offer Iran MUST refuse
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/743b96400831f8a1?hl=en

Zero Tolerance
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1641ae424fde5b89?hl=en

Sino-Russian Guarantees?
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/bd8f5389ab0e8956?hl=en

More neo-crazy media sycophant LIES about Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/d3fe84a9b64d20bc?hl=en

What The Neo-Crazies Knew
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/6b45fabf57726a03?hl=en

EU vs. Iran - Who's Right?
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/cbce70a3093360fb?hl=en

Iran should refer U.S. to Security Council for violating UNSCR-984
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0d54ef8e41b971bf?hl=en

Castration of NPT - U.S. instantly tore up NPT for India, so why should Iran obey a
torn up agreement!
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/2c234f4a148cd298?hl=en

U.S. ripped NPT into pieces; Iran must withdraw from this annulled treaty
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/fbf55e939908b2c2?hl=en

U.S. proliferation rhetoric and reality
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/7d8c268ee51c07be?hl=en

Ambassador Bolton's Agenda
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1ca916601b7a7bc8?hl=en

Iran's INALIENABLE RIGHT to uranium enrichment
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/245f6081b4e3d019?hl=en

A Palliative for Neo-Crazy Lies
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1b7968f98173938d?hl=en

Inalienable right without discrimination
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/5012a673328fa044?hl=en

U.S. doesn't want to disarm even though it promised to do so
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/c0b86cad11cb9413?hl=en

UN Referral – Not
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/bddc928154c8c96a?hl=en

What Iranian obligations? What breaches? America's lies, lies, lies...
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/9535c4a90df98471?hl=en

Memo to slimy senators
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/7065ffd57b51a959?hl=en

U.S. promised in 2000, to get rid of it's nukes!
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1e23bafecdac9e82?hl=en

U.S. has violated Iran's NPT rights!
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/02f1f48fafcac2b6?hl=en

Iran's diplomatic masterpiece
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f532352654efee1d?hl=en

Bush to sabotage NPT
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/6386adef83860d3e?hl=en

West's repeated violations of "Article IV & I" against Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0123ceb12dd47321?hl=en

Israel guns for Iran - Why?
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/2c0274540f3957b7?hl=en

U.S. wants definition of NPT 'noncompliance' changed!!!
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/2abab5a7b8bce4c5?hl=en

NTP for dummies
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f317bb918ca244da?hl=en

CNN's Wolf Blitzer & David Albright: Jews global campaign against Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/44fcd2a53218eb52?hl=en

The Real Threat From John Bolton
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/16fb61c3cca32703?hl=en

81-mm smoking rockets
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/fb2c580ba00d79a6?hl=en

U.S. plans to destroy NPT
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/760abaff1d8ac7c2?hl=en

Nuts to Bush
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/de936f823b4dfb11?hl=en

Iran's logic proven correct to the entire World
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/a5798de678dad2a9?hl=en

Sandbagging the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group)
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/238000abe8fe032e?hl=en

What Noncompliance?
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/32f537772749ecc2?hl=en

Sandbagging the EU
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/bb437d1ee00ad1e9?hl=en

Bye-Bye, NPT
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/eb8e9f617d0e0867?hl=en

Jew tells Bush to lie about Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/c96849f55f92353e?hl=en

Targeting Non-existent Nukes?
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/e25e86754767e3ef?hl=en

Blindly Backing Israel Against Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/ca49370dcc1f41a4?hl=en

Condi Desperate to Stop EU-China-Iran Chain Reaction
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/26e6a24b43339654?hl=en

The Impossible Dream in the State of the Union Address
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/74938ea7958d0764?hl=en

Targeting Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/dbb46af7ff3f0b66?hl=en

Bay of Pigs part 2, CIA-Israeli-MEK
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/b58f2a1d8b2290ff?hl=en

Threatening Iran - despite the evidence
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/ce6e09919da68cbb?hl=en

Virtual Nukes
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/c245e595ad17ae57?hl=en

Iran's having the capability to enrich uranium is not even tantamount to having the
capability to produce the essentially pure uranium-235 required to make a nuke
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/303c3ca53b67c0a7?hl=en

Dangerous Delusions About Iran
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/42c57f2ae0cdb3b0?hl=en

Thwarting the Neo-Crazies
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/66c79d721fd588d4?hl=en

Trashing the IAEA Again
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f8c610f6cc9e1fda?hl=en

U.S. keeps lying about Iran again & again
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/e9f480b192bd425e?hl=en

Iran's Stealthy Nukes
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/e47cc87d2b268368?hl=en

Uranium-Enrichment Myths Busted
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f7ebc6f4bed9d13a?hl=en

Iran Plays by the Rules - No Fair!
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/25be300601cc8984?hl=en

Nuclear Bait and Switch
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0a0dc80ca3b8e98f?hl=en

The myth of Iranian nukes
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/bf78503a661673e9?hl=en

North Korea has what Iraq didn't
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/56f613221080276e?hl=en

Iran has absolute right to enrich uranium
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0a8ac2dc599976ba?hl=en

Iran is in full compliance with NPT & IAEA
http://groups.google.com/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/737b74e86ba897cb?hl=en