@@ Threatening Iran - despite evidence @@
Arash
December 18, 2004
Threatening Iran - despite the evidence
Dr. James Gordon Prather
Nuclear weapons physicist
According to Undersecretary of State John Bolton, "[T]he United States
strongly believes that Iran has a clandestine program to produce nuclear
weapons and has been warning publicly about Tehran's weapons ambitions for
over a decade."
Now, having nuke ambitions is one thing. Having the "fissile" material -
plutonium-239 or uranium-235 - needed to produce nukes is quite another.
The key to preventing nuke proliferation is the international control of the
production, processing, transformation and disposition of certain "nuclear"
materials. In return for a promise not to acquire or seek to acquire nukes,
the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons recognizes the
"inalienable right" of all signatories to enjoy the peaceful benefits of
nuclear energy. But all NPT-proscribed "nuclear" materials - as well as the
facilities in which they are stored, processed, transformed or consumed -
have to be made subject to an International Atomic Energy Agency Safeguards
Agreement.
More than a year ago, Iran signed an Additional Protocol to its Safeguards
Agreement, vastly expanding the authority of IAEA inspectors to go anywhere
and see anything. Director General Mohamed ElBaradei has just reported to
the IAEA Board of Governors that after a year-long exhaustive and intrusive
inspection he has - to date - found no evidence that Iran has - or ever has
had - a nuke program.
So, perhaps what Bolton should have said is that the United States strongly
believes - despite all evidence to the contrary - that Iran has a
clandestine program to produce nuclear weapons.
Take for example the nuclear power plant under construction at Bushehr,
Iran. In the 1970s, Siemens began construction of two plants at Bushehr and
had nearly finished one of them when both were practically destroyed during
the Iranian-Iraqi War.
Until 1995, the U.S. effectively prohibited any Western-based engineering
firm from resuming construction. But then Russia overrode U.S. objections
and agreed - in return for about $800 million in hard currency - to build a
conventional Soviet-designed 1000 MWe nuclear power plant at Bushehr. Now
scheduled for completion in 2006, it will - of course - be made subject to
Iran's Safeguards Agreement.
Anti-nuclear activists charge that the Iranians can and will produce nukes
from plutonium they recover from the reactor's "spent fuel." That's
nonsense, of course, but the neo-crazies have echoed that charge.
You see, as the "fissile" U-235 isotope in uranium fuel is "burned" in a
nuclear reactor, a small amount of plutonium is "bred." Initially, it is the
"fissile" Pu-239 isotope that is produced. But as more fuel is burned, more
and more fissile and non-fissile plutonium isotopes will be produced.
All plutonium atoms have the same chemical properties. Therefore, the
plutonium atoms can be chemically separated out. But "weapons-grade"
plutonium must be about 90 percent Pu-239. So there is a definite limit to
the length of time - much less than a year - the fuel can be allowed to
remain in the operating reactor if weapons-grade plutonium is to be
produced.
But the IAEA will see to it that the Russian-owned fuel will remain - on
average - in the safeguarded Iranian reactor for more than four years.
Hence, the plutonium eventually recovered - after it has been sent back to
Russia - from the Russian-owned "spent fuel" will be less than 60 percent
Pu-239 and definitely not "weapons-grade."
Bolton and the neo-crazies know that. So they argue that as soon as Bushehr
has operated for a few months, Iran will withdraw from the NPT, throw out
the IAEA and the Russians, and proceed to separate out enough
"weapons-grade" plutonium to make a few nukes. Therefore, the neo-crazies
argue, we must never allow Bushehr to begin operating.
Well, to Bolton's consternation, the European Union has rejected his
arguments and has made a deal - endorsed by China and Russia - with Iran.
If - in addition to adhering to the IAEA Additional Protocol - Iran will
suspend its uranium-enrichment activities, they'll see to it that nuclear
power plants are just the beginning of the benefits Iran will receive.
Iran's wish list includes fuel for Iranian power plants at "market prices";
the resumption of EU-Iran Trade and Cooperation Agreement negotiations; and
EU support for Iran's application for World Trade Organization membership.
So what do the neo-crazies intend to do about the clandestine nuke program
that spy satellites in space and IAEA inspectors on the ground can't find?
Well, when The New Republic's Franklin Foer asked Bolton at a recent
conference at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs if the use
of military force was still an option, Bolton replied, "No options are off
the table."
* Physicist James Gordon Prather has served as a policy implementing
official for national security-related technical matters in the Federal
Energy Agency, the Energy Research and Development Administration, the
Department of Energy, the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the
Department of the Army. Dr. Prather also served as legislative assistant for
national security affairs to U.S. Sen. Henry Bellmon, R-Okla. -- ranking
member of the Senate Budget Committee and member of the Senate Energy
Committee and Appropriations Committee. Dr. Prather had earlier worked as a
nuclear weapons physicist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in
California and Sandia National Laboratory in New Mexico.
http://www.antiwar.com/prather
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/archives.asp?AUTHOR_ID=35
Dave Simpson
for years.
Antiwar has been making a laughingstock of itself lately -- it has
loud-mouth morons there who deny China threatens the USA and other
Asian nations, for example.
Lazarus Cain
Pacifist
news:1103503040.5...@c13g2000cwb.googlegroups.com
> Iran has been seeking nuclear weapons and has been deceptive about this
> for years.
Iran has every right to nuclear energy. Furthermore, Israel is the
nuclear-armed entity that threatens the other states in the area.
> Antiwar has been making a laughingstock of itself lately -- it has
> loud-mouth morons there who deny China threatens the USA and other
> Asian nations, for example.
Whereas Wall Street Jewnal, Fox News etc. are covered in glory for their
accurate reporting and analysis ;-)
--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG