Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.

Dismiss

@@ As far as Iran is concerned, the EU-3 are now history @@

0 views

Skip to first unread message

Arash

unread,

Sep 6, 2005, 11:31:27 AM9/6/05

Asia Times
September 7, 2005

Showdown as Iran refuses to jump another nuke hoop

Under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has every right to process uranium
into reactor fuel. But what's OK for other countries is forbidden to Iran, according
to the U.S. and the EU's negotiating trio. For Iran, the bar keeps being raised, and
until the weekend it had jumped every time. Now the stage is set for a showdown
following the latest - rejected - demands by the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) chief and the EU. On September 19, the IAEA decides whether to refer Iran to
the UN Security Council, where it faces the possibility of sanctions, over what
amounts to no more than a failure to continue implementing "legally-non-binding"
measures.

Iran knocks Europe out

By Pepe Escobar

Tehran - In the high-stakes nuclear poker game between Iran and the EU-3 (Britain,
France and Germany), Tehran has decided to call the EU's bluff and turn the game
around.

On top of it Ali Larijani, the new head of the Supreme National Security Council -
appointed by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad - and now Iran's top nuclear negotiator,
stressed on Iranian TV that the criticism expressed in Saturday's report by
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Mohammad ElBaradei was "neither legal
nor technical" and distorted by political motives. ("The nuclear issue is a national
issue. They [a reference to the EU-3, not the IAEA] should not talk to Iranian people
with bullying language").

Ali Larijani once again stressed that as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT), Iran had the right to develop the nuclear fuel cycle for civilian
purposes. Right on cue, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi added that
"access to peaceful nuclear technology is our inalienable right and we will not
forsake such a right. The Isfahan issue is irrevocable". This a reference to uranium
conversion being resumed at the Isfahan plant. According to Larijani, "If the IAEA
was seeking to resolve Iran's nuclear issue, it could have already done so by now".

Putin to the rescue?

The European view appears to be that Iran now is trying to split the international
community by talking to other players like Italy, as well as members of the
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), such as India, Malaysia and South Africa. The fact is the
international community is already split on the issue between the U.S. and the EU-3
on one side, and most of the developing world on the other.

As much as the EU-3 is accusing Iran of playing the 35 member countries of the IAEA
Board of Governors against each other, the U.S. is exercising tremendous pressure
over these same countries to refer Iran to the Security Council for possible
sanctions.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, currently a key advisor on
foreign affairs to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is quoted as saying that
Iran now has the upper hand - and that's the consensus in Tehran.

Ali Akbar Velayati is a realist. If Iran is referred to the Security Council, "They
will obviously set a deadline for Iran, and in the worst circumstances we would have
to expect sanctions". Velayati thinks that both Russia and China may not veto the
move for sanctions, "but they will try to moderate the Security Council's stances".

There are insistent rumors in diplomatic circles in Tehran that Italian Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi has asked his close friend, Russian President Vladimir
Putin, to intervene as the new broker of last resort - since the failure of the EU-3
strategy is now being widely acknowledged.

Italy from the start wanted to be part of the negotiating team. Silvio Berlusconi
believes that only Putin can bridge the gap between Western Europe and Iran as he
is - relatively - trusted by both sides.

Russia said on Monday that it opposed sending Iran's case to the Security Council.

The showdown is when the 35-member IAEA board meets on September 19 in its
headquarters in Vienna. The U.S. and the EU-3 know that both Russia and China - with
multiple billion-dollar deals with Iran - would be inclined to block any eventual
Security Council sanctions.

Diplomats in Brussels realistically realize that sanctions would not be considered at
first: the council instead would try hard to come up with a long-term "constructive"
solution.

Deal? What deal?

The story of the EU-3's mediation is a chronicle of a debacle foretold. In a
nutshell, Iran voluntarily agreed under the Paris Agreement of November 2004 to
suspend uranium enrichment at Isfahan as part of negotiations with the EU-3.

The IAEA itself recognized the move as "a voluntary, non-legally binding,
confidence-building measure".

Five months ago, Iran actually proposed to freeze uranium enrichment but to keep a
few centrifuges (under severe IAEA inspections). The EU-3 rejected the offer. Why?
Because of Washington.

From the Bush administration's point of view, Iran has the right to nothing - much
less to master parts of the fuel cycle.

Iranian negotiators saw through the EU-3 strategy from the start.

They accused the EU-3 of trying to maintain the suspension of uranium enrichment
"indefinitely" and at the same time obstructing any significant development in the
negotiations.

That was exactly the case, because Washington had blocked any possibility of a
compromise.

Iran has the right to work on a nuclear fuel cycle according to the NPT, and it has
the right to keep at least a pilot enrichment program. In Tehran's view, the EU-3,
pressured by Washington, was in fact trying to impose no uranium enrichment and no
reprocessing.

The EU-3 had nothing to offer except a heavily spun "nuclear, commercial and
political package", as it was advertised in Brussels. An iron rule in the package was
for Tehran to definitively renounce uranium enrichment. For Tehran, conversion is not
enrichment, thus the restart of Isfahan's plant.

The EU-3 package was in fact a very limited - and conditional - one. It offered a
guaranteed supply of fuel for Iran's civilian reactors, as long as they were fully
supervised by the IAEA; an agreement (but only in principle) for European companies
to build a nuclear power station besides the Russian-made Bushehr reactor, but as
long as Tehran allowed extremely intrusive IAEA inspections (and even this wouldn't
fly if Washington actively blocked it); more trade (including conditional access to
the World Trade Organization) and economic cooperation; sales of Airbus planes; and
vague support in terms of "security cooperation" on energy matters, Iraq and
Afghanistan, as well as the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking.

Last month in Brussels, some European diplomats, off the record, admitted to Asia
Times Online that the package was "an empty box of chocolates".

But "there is nothing else we can offer", a diplomat said. "The Americans simply
wouldn't let us". The diplomats also confirmed that both France and Germany were
absolutely ready for a deal, considering they want to invest heavily in Iran, and
want to close oil and gas agreements.

The problem was Britain. "We know", said officials in Tehran, barely disguising their
smiles.

Tehran was incensed not only by the terms of the package but by the way it was
presented - a bureaucratic letter with no official signature by any of the EU-3
foreign ministers. The conditional offers were only on Europe's name, and did not
implicate the U.S. That was the last straw. Iran called the EU-3's bluff and resumed
uranium conversion at Isfahan. That led to last Saturday's IAEA report.

The report says many important things. Crucially, ElBaradei acknowledges that Iran is
cooperating with the IAEA. And he admits that results of extensive analysis tend to
support Iran's official statement about the foreign origin (from Pakistan) of uranium
contamination.

ElBaradei also says that Iran has been asked to provide more information regarding
its P-2 centrifuge program. He says a final assessment of Iran's plutonium research
activities must await the results of more analysis. He says that Iran is building a
heavy water research reactor at Arak (planned to start in 2014) and a heavy water
production plant at Arak as well. He says Iran's heavy water reactor program will be
monitored by the IAEA.

But ElBaradei also criticizes Iran for not reporting to the IAEA all its experiments
in uranium enrichment, uranium conversion and plutonium research. He adds, however,
that Iran has agreed to provide further supporting information and documentation. He
says that after two-and-a-half years of intensive inspections and investigations the
IAEA is not yet in a position to clarify some important outstanding issues; and he
calls for Iran's "full transparency". In essence: the tone is "let's keep talking",
not "let's shut the door".

Courting India

Ali Larijani insists that "we did not stop the talks, they [the EU-3] did. We
consider negotiations with every country as useful. We have not hidden anything. They
must know that threats would not have any effect on our national will".

Tehran's new global diplomatic thrust is now evident. The strategy insists on Iran's
inalienable nuclear rights according to the IAEA charter; stresses a close,
respectful cooperation with IAEA inspectors; and actively courts support from
non-aligned countries like India, Malaysia and South Africa (that's the spirit of
Larijani's high profile visit to India last week).

As far as Tehran is concerned, the EU-3 are now history. Unless they table a
realistic proposal.

Tehran stresses that both Israel and Pakistan totally ignored the NPT and built their
own nuclear weapons, without giving any explanation to the "international community".
So why should Iran be punished when it is actually complying with the NPT?

The Isfahan plant will keep working on uranium conversion. And Tehran plans to resume
uranium enrichment at Natanz as well. There's nothing the EU-3 can do about it.

According to an Iranian diplomat, "The IAEA of course can talk about their 'serious
concern' about nuclear activities in Isfahan and Natanz, but they cannot use this
legally as a means to refer Iran to the UN Security Council". Or can they?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GI07Ak06.html

Related:
Iran refuses to jump another nuke hoop - UN opens a Pandora's Box of "Iran
exceptionalism"
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/24bfe5a318d9a222?hl=en

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)
http://www.aeoi.org.ir/NewWeb/default.asp

Technical History of Iran’s Nuclear Activities Since 1970” (Keyhan - April 27, 2005)
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/Technical_History_of_Irans_Nuclear_Activities_Since_1970.pdf

Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in Iran (Sep. 2, 2005)
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/GOV_2005_67.pdf

Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in Iran (Nov.15, 2004)
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2004/gov2004-83_derestrict.pdf

Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in Iran (Sep.1, 2004)
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2004/gov2004-60.pdf

Iran: Countdown to showdown
David Albright & Corey Hinderstein
http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=nd04albright_037

Iran’s the Gchine uranium mine and mill, near Bandar Abbas, and Saghand, near Yazd.
http://www.iranwatch.org/international/IAEA/iaea-goldschmidt-statement-061305.pdf

No wonder the West is so mad at Iran
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/83e63797f1a1af3b?hl=en

America's plan to undermine the high-level event
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/9927bb4f65924e34?hl=en

JEW media sycophants & 36% HEU - IRAN told the truth, yet JEW keeps lying
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f90a6eef507f10a0?hl=en

Past Arguments Don't Square With Current Iran Policy
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f53d3a05bc5403c1?hl=en

The fuel behind Iran's nuclear drive
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/2fcf81313deb4ae0?hl=en

The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0d0dcf76abbaafb1?hl=en

NO Nuclear double standards
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/8e41f4a8a1a3e04c?hl=en

Backlash Builds Against Cheney's 'Guns of August'
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/8286b2b389247d0a?hl=en

An offer Iran MUST refuse
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/743b96400831f8a1?hl=en

Zero Tolerance
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1641ae424fde5b89?hl=en

Sino-Russian Guarantees?
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/bd8f5389ab0e8956?hl=en

More neo-crazy media sycophant LIES about Iran
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/d3fe84a9b64d20bc?hl=en

What The Neo-Crazies Knew
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/6b45fabf57726a03?hl=en

EU vs. Iran - Who's Right?
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/cbce70a3093360fb?hl=en

Iran should refer U.S. to Security Council for violating UNSCR-984
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0d54ef8e41b971bf?hl=en

Castration of NPT - U.S. instantly tore up NPT for India, so why should Iran obey a
torn up agreement!
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/2c234f4a148cd298?hl=en

U.S. ripped NPT into pieces; Iran must withdraw from this annulled treaty
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/fbf55e939908b2c2?hl=en

U.S. proliferation rhetoric and reality
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/7d8c268ee51c07be?hl=en

Ambassador Bolton's Agenda
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1ca916601b7a7bc8?hl=en

Iran's INALIENABLE RIGHT to uranium enrichment
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/245f6081b4e3d019?hl=en

A Palliative for Neo-Crazy Lies
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1b7968f98173938d?hl=en

Inalienable right without discrimination
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/5012a673328fa044?hl=en

U.S. doesn't want to disarm even though it promised to do so
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/c0b86cad11cb9413?hl=en

UN Referral – Not
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/bddc928154c8c96a?hl=en

What Iranian obligations? What breaches? America's lies, lies, lies...
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/9535c4a90df98471?hl=en

Memo to slimy senators
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/7065ffd57b51a959?hl=en

U.S. promised in 2000, to get rid of it's nukes!
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/1e23bafecdac9e82?hl=en

U.S. has violated Iran's NPT rights!
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/02f1f48fafcac2b6?hl=en

Iran's diplomatic masterpiece
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f532352654efee1d?hl=en

Bush to sabotage NPT
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/6386adef83860d3e?hl=en

West's repeated violations of "Article IV & I" against Iran
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0123ceb12dd47321?hl=en

Israel guns for Iran - Why?
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/2c0274540f3957b7?hl=en

U.S. wants definition of NPT 'noncompliance' changed!!!
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/2abab5a7b8bce4c5?hl=en

NTP for dummies
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f317bb918ca244da?hl=en

CNN's Wolf Blitzer & David Albright: Jews global campaign against Iran
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/44fcd2a53218eb52?hl=en

The Real Threat From John Bolton
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/16fb61c3cca32703?hl=en

81-mm smoking rockets
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/fb2c580ba00d79a6?hl=en

U.S. plans to destroy NPT
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/760abaff1d8ac7c2?hl=en

Nuts to Bush
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/de936f823b4dfb11?hl=en

Iran's logic proven correct to the entire World
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/a5798de678dad2a9?hl=en

Sandbagging the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group)
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/238000abe8fe032e?hl=en

What Noncompliance?
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/32f537772749ecc2?hl=en

Sandbagging the EU
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/bb437d1ee00ad1e9?hl=en

Bye-Bye, NPT
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/eb8e9f617d0e0867?hl=en

Jew tells Bush to lie about Iran
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/c96849f55f92353e?hl=en

Targeting Non-existent Nukes?
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/e25e86754767e3ef?hl=en

Blindly Backing Israel Against Iran
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/ca49370dcc1f41a4?hl=en

Condi Desperate to Stop EU-China-Iran Chain Reaction
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/26e6a24b43339654?hl=en

The Impossible Dream in the State of the Union Address
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/74938ea7958d0764?hl=en

Targeting Iran
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/dbb46af7ff3f0b66?hl=en

Bay of Pigs part 2, CIA-Israeli-MEK
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/b58f2a1d8b2290ff?hl=en

Threatening Iran - despite the evidence
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/ce6e09919da68cbb?hl=en

Virtual Nukes
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/c245e595ad17ae57?hl=en

Iran's having the capability to enrich uranium is not even tantamount to having the
capability to produce the essentially pure uranium-235 required to make a nuke
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/303c3ca53b67c0a7?hl=en

Dangerous Delusions About Iran
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/42c57f2ae0cdb3b0?hl=en

Thwarting the Neo-Crazies
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/66c79d721fd588d4?hl=en

Trashing the IAEA Again
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f8c610f6cc9e1fda?hl=en

U.S. keeps lying about Iran again & again
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/e9f480b192bd425e?hl=en

Iran's Stealthy Nukes
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/e47cc87d2b268368?hl=en

Uranium-Enrichment Myths Busted
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/f7ebc6f4bed9d13a?hl=en

Iran Plays by the Rules - No Fair!
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/25be300601cc8984?hl=en

Nuclear Bait and Switch
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0a0dc80ca3b8e98f?hl=en

The myth of Iranian nukes
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/bf78503a661673e9?hl=en

North Korea has what Iraq didn't
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/56f613221080276e?hl=en

Iran has absolute right to enrich uranium
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/0a8ac2dc599976ba?hl=en

Iran is in full compliance with NPT & IAEA
http://groups.google.ca/group/soc.culture.iranian/msg/737b74e86ba897cb?hl=en