@@ 81-mm smoking rockets @@
Arash
April 11, 2005
Smoking Rockets
Dr. James Gordon Prather
Nuclear weapons physicist
The report (http://www.whitehouse.gov/wmd) of the Commission on the
Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass
Destruction begins as follows:
"On the brink of war, and in front of the whole world, the United States
government asserted that Saddam Hussein had reconstituted his nuclear
weapons program, had biological weapons and mobile biological weapon
production facilities, and had stockpiled and was producing chemical
weapons.
"All of this was based on the assessments of the U.S. Intelligence
Community. And not one bit of it could be confirmed when the war was over."
Apparently the assertions the Commission is referring to were those made –
on Feb. 6, 2003 – to the UN Security Council by Secretary of State Colin
Powell.
Here are excerpts from Powell's hair-raising presentation:
http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/02/05/sprj.irq.powell.transcript.05/index.html%5C
"Saddam Hussein already possesses two out of the three key components
needed to build a nuclear bomb. He has a cadre of nuclear scientists with
the expertise, and he has a bomb design.
"Since 1998, his efforts to reconstitute his nuclear program have been
focused on acquiring the third and last component, sufficient fissile
material to produce a nuclear explosion. To make the fissile material, he
needs to develop an ability to enrich uranium.
"Saddam Hussein is determined to get his hands on a nuclear bomb.
"He is so determined that he has made repeated covert attempts to
acquire high-specification aluminum tubes from 11 different countries, even
after inspections resumed.
"People will continue to debate this issue, but there is no doubt in my
mind, these illicit procurement efforts show that Saddam Hussein is very
much focused on putting in place the key missing piece from his nuclear
weapons program, the ability to produce fissile material."
So Iraq's attempts "to acquire high-specification aluminum tubes" had
convinced Colin Powell that Saddam was close to getting his hands on a
nuclear weapon.
But UN inspectors empowered by UN Security Council Resolution 1441 – enacted
at the urging of the United States the previous November – had been
conducting intrusive go-anywhere see-anything inspections in Iraq for
several months.
Here are excerpts from an interim report
(http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/SV/Invo/reports/s_2003_95.pdf), made to the
Security Council on Jan. 27, 2003 – a week before Powell's presentation – by
Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy
Agency.
"Drawing from satellite imagery and other information available to it, IAEA
identified a number of sites, some of which had been associated with Iraq's
past nuclear activities, where modifications of possible relevance to IAEA's
mandate had been made, or new buildings constructed, between 1998 and 2002.
"Eight of these sites were identified by States as being locations where
nuclear activities were suspected of being conducted.
"All of these sites were inspected to ascertain whether there had been
developments in technical capabilities, organization, structure, facility
boundaries or personnel.
"The IAEA has found no signs of nuclear activity at any of these sites.
"Several other facilities which had never been inspected by IAEA or by the
United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) in the past were inspected in
response to information that indicated the presence of large industrial
capabilities at those locations.
"None of these facilities has proven to be nuclear-related or to require
their declaration by Iraq."
So much for the sites "suspected" by our "intelligence community" of being
engaged in – or constructed for – "nuclear" activities.
But what about Powell's smoking gun?
"In response to IAEA questioning, the Iraqi authorities indicated that
unsuccessful attempts had been made between 2000 and 2002 to procure
high-strength aluminum tubes, but that the tubes had been intended for use
in connection with a program aimed at reverse engineering 81-millimeter
rockets.
"The IAEA has conducted a series of inspections at sites involved in the
production and storage of reverse-engineered rockets, held discussions with
and interviewed Iraq personnel, taken samples of aluminum tubes, and begun a
review of the documentation provided by Iraq relating to contracts with the
traders.
"As a result of these inspection efforts, it has been possible to confirm
the existence of a program for producing 81-millimeter rockets.
"The IAEA's analysis to date indicates that the specifications of the
aluminum tubes recently sought by Iraq appear to be consistent with reverse
engineering of rockets.
"While it would be possible to modify such tubes for the manufacture of
centrifuges, they are not directly suitable for such use."
Thus, by the time Powell made his assertions, irrespective of what our
intelligence community had concluded, Saddam's nuclear weapons program
smoking gun had, in fact, turned out to be an 81-millimeter smoking rocket.
Listen to a recent interview with Dr. Prather
http://www.weekendinterviewshow.com/InterviewDisplay.aspx?i=87
Audio part 1 (20 minutes)
http://www.charlesgoyette.com/archive/media/2005-02-16-Charles-04.mp3
Audio part 2 (20 minutes)
http://www.charlesgoyette.com/archive/media/2005-02-16-Charles-05.mp3
* Physicist James Gordon Prather has served as a policy implementing
official for national security-related technical matters in the Federal
Energy Agency, the Energy Research and Development Administration, the
Department of Energy, the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the
Department of the Army. Dr. Prather also served as legislative assistant for
national security affairs to U.S. Senator Henry Bellmon, R-Okla. -- ranking
member of the Senate Budget Committee and member of the Senate Energy
Committee and Appropriations Committee. Dr. Prather had earlier worked as a
nuclear weapons physicist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in
California and Sandia National Laboratory in New Mexico.