Michael Ejercito wrote:
> HeartDoc Andrew, in the Holy Spirit, boldly wrote:
>> Michael Ejercito wrote:
>>
>>>
https://archive.ph/ZQgqX
>>>
>>>
>>> Fear we go again! UK health officials including 'Professor Lockdown'
>>> begin Covid-style 'worst-case scenario' planning for if bird flu becomes
>>> transmissible in humans - as girl, 11, dies and TWELVE more people are
>>> feared infected in Cambodia
>>> Scientists are modelling how an outbreak of avian flu could sweep the UK
>>> Only one infection has been spotted in a Brit since outbreak began in 2021
>>> By EMILY CRAIG SENIOR HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
>>> UPDATED: 20:32 EST, 23 February 2023
>>> e-mail
>>> 41
>>> shares
>>> 747
>>> View comments
>>> A dozen people in Cambodia are suspected of being infected with the H5N1
>>> bird flu strain in the same province where an 11-year-old girl died on
>>> Wednesday - raising fears the virus may be spreading from human to human
>>> for the first time in decades.
>>> Scientists are modelling how a worst-case scenario bird flu outbreak
>>> could sweep the UK if the virus spread to humans.
>>> The Khmer Times – a local newspaper – reported that the suspected
>>> patients have all been tested for the virus and are waiting on lab
>>> confirmation, four of whom are symptomatic.
>>> Officials at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said they are
>>> developing 'scenarios of early human transmission' to help with
>>> preparedness, planning and improvements to surveillance.
>>> While only one infection has been spotted in Britain since the record
>>> bird flu outbreak began in October 2021, officials begin modelling
>>> outbreaks in people when it deems the risk level is three out of five –
>>> which it is currently.
>>> This picture released by Cambodia's Communicable Disease Control
>>> Department (CDCD) on February 23, 2023, shows villagers posing with
>>> posters about H5N1 virus threats, in Prey Veng province - where a girl
>>> died from the virus this week and 12 more are suspected to have been
>>> infected
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> This picture released by Cambodia's Communicable Disease Control
>>> Department (CDCD) on February 23, 2023, shows villagers posing with
>>> posters about H5N1 virus threats, in Prey Veng province - where a girl
>>> died from the virus this week and 12 more are suspected to have been
>>> infected
>>> Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson (pictured),
>>> an epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led the UK
>>> Government to impose the first lockdown
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson
>>> (pictured), an epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led
>>> the UK Government to impose the first lockdown
>>> TRENDING
>>>
>>> Bird flu outbreak: Cambodia girl dies, 12 others potentially infected
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>>> Dr Arturo Casadevall, an immunologist at Johns Hopkins, reacted to the
>>> suspected outbreak in Cambodia. He wrote on Twitter: 'Key information is
>>> whether the 12 infected people obtained it from a bird source or from
>>> human-to-human transmission, which would be very worrisome.'
>>> Dr Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and Chief of COVID Task Force at
>>> the New England Complex Systems Institute, tweeted: 'Hope this wasn’t
>>> human to human, but I’m now getting to be worried,'
>>> H5N1 was first detected in chickens in Scotland in 1959, and again in
>>> China and Hong Kong in 1996. It first was detected in humans in 1997.
>>> Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is incredibly rare, but not
>>> impossible. In 1997, officials confirmed 18 H5N1 cases in Hong Kong,
>>> some of which were acquired through human-to-human transmission. The
>>> outbreak stayed relatively small, though. And did not spiral into a
>>> massive issue at either the local or global level.
>>> This recent outbreak has caused particular concern. More than 15million
>>> domesticated birds, and countless wild animals, have been struck down by
>>> the virus.
>>> There is nothing to be done that can prevent the spread among wild
>>> birds, but officials are working to keep domesticated populations away
>>>from them. In the UK, all farmed chickens are now required to stay indoors.
>>> Among those working on the models is Professor Neil Ferguson, an
>>> epidemiologist whose modelling of the Covid outbreak led the UK
>>> Government to impose the first lockdown.
>>>
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> The above map shows locations where there is a growing risk of a
>>> zoonotic virus outbreak. Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health expert at
>>> Brown University in Rhode Island, warned that Texas was also a potential
>>> epicenter
>>> Pictured: A National Trust ranger clears deceased birds from Staple
>>> Island in July 2022
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> Pictured: A National Trust ranger clears deceased birds from Staple
>>> Island in July 2022
>>> The UKHSA graph shows the number of bird flu cases, by region in
>>> England, confirmed among kept and wild birds between October 2022 and
>>> February 2023
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> The UKHSA graph shows the number of bird flu cases, by region in
>>> England, confirmed among kept and wild birds between October 2022 and
>>> February 2023
>>>
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> A young girl in Cambodia has died from the H5N1 bird flu. She was
>>> infected with the virus last week. She is the nation's first case since
>>> 2014 (file photo)
>>> Bird flu cases detected in poultry facilities, by county, in 2022 and 2023
>>> Bird flu cases detected in wild birds, by county, in 2022 and 2023
>>> The above map shows bird flu cases detected in poultry facilities (left)
>>> and in wild birds (right) in 2022 and 2023. The WHO has warned the world
>>> to prepare for a potential bird flu pandemic saying the virus could jump
>>> to humans
>>> Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been
>>> detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> Before the cases in Cambodia, only one case of H5N1 in humans had been
>>> detected this year. Cases in humans have been rare in recent years
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>>> In an update today, the UKHSA confirmed that its Avian Influenza
>>> Technical Group – which includes Professor Ferguson and around two dozen
>>> other experts – calculated how an outbreak could sweep the UK.
>>> Under a 'mild scenario', the scientists estimated that one in 400 people
>>> who caught bird flu would die due to the virus.
>>> This infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.25 per cent is similar to
>>> Covid's in mid-2021 and the 2009 bird flu outbreak.
>>> But under a 'more severe scenario', the virus would be fatal among one
>>> in 40 people who became infected (an IFR of 2.5 per cent).
>>> However, the World Health Organization warns that of the 868 human H5N1
>>> cases reported to it over the last two decades, 456 - just over half -
>>> have been fatal.
>>> Bird flu outbreak: Everything you need to know
>>> What is it?
>>> Avian flu is an infectious type of influenza that spreads among birds.
>>> In rare cases, it can be transmitted to humans through close contact
>>> with a dead or alive infected bird.
>>> This includes touching infected birds, their droppings or bedding.
>>> People can also catch bird flu if they kill or prepare infected poultry
>>> for eating.
>>> Wild birds are carriers, especially through migration.
>>> As they cluster together to breed, the virus spreads rapidly and is then
>>> carried to other parts of the globe.
>>> New strains tend to appear first in Asia, from where more than 60
>>> species of shore birds, waders and waterfowl head off to Alaska to breed
>>> and mix with migratory birds from the US. Others go west and infect
>>> European species.
>>> What strain is currently spreading?
>>> H5N1.
>>> So far the new virus has been detected in some 80million birds and
>>> poultry globally since September 2021 — double the previous record the
>>> year before.
>>> Not only is the virus spreading at speed, it is also killing at an
>>> unprecedented level, leading some experts to say this is the deadliest
>>> variant so far.
>>> Millions of chickens and turkeys in the UK have been culled or put into
>>> lockdown, affecting the availability of Christmas turkey and free-range
>>> eggs.
>>> Can it infect people?
>>> Yes, but only 860 human cases have been reported to the World Health
>>> Organization since 2003.
>>> The risk to people has been deemed 'low'.
>>> But people are strongly urged not to touch sick or dead birds because
>>> the virus is lethal, killing 56 per cent of people it does manage to infect.
>>> ADVERTISEMENT
>>> The Avian Influenza Technical Group noted that while other H5N1
>>> outbreaks have had 'much higher fatality estimates', these did not
>>> involve sustained human-to-human transmission, so are not 'directly
>>> comparable'.
>>> Unlike the Covid pandemic, the scientists said that a bird flu outbreak
>>> could be more deadly among the young, rather than the elderly – as was
>>> seen in the 1918 flu pandemic.
>>> Professor Ferguson has admitted he became 'something of a marmite
>>> figure' and that he 'made mistakes' and 'oversimplified things' during
>>> the pandemic.
>>> Modelling from the epidemiologist and his colleagues at Imperial College
>>> London in March 2020 predicted the NHS would be overwhelmed within weeks
>>> and a terrible death toll would arise if nothing was done to stop the
>>> spread of the disease.
>>> Professor Ferguson has said while it had been challenging for most
>>> Western governments to act in a timely manner, the science throughout
>>> the crisis 'had basically been right'.
>>> In light of the modelling, the UKHSA said it would continue to
>>> investigate how it could detect cases if there was an outbreak among people.
>>> This could see Covid-style lateral flow tests rolled out to test Brits
>>> for bird flu, it said.
>>> The UKHSA said it is investigating whether the swabs, which provided
>>> results in as little as 15 minutes during the Covid pandemic, would
>>> detect the circulating deadly H5N1 strain.
>>> It is also probing whether a blood test could be developed that detects
>>> antibodies against the virus.
>>> Genetic mutations in positive samples are also being monitored for any
>>> signal that the virus is mutating to become a bigger risk to people.
>>> It will 'remain vigilant' over whether the 'constantly' evolving virus,
>>> which kills over half of those it infects, has gained mutations that may
>>> better allow it spread among people.
>>> The UKHSA also noted that the 'very high levels' of transmission in wild
>>> birds presents a 'constant risk'.
>>> The agency noted that there is 'no evidence so far that the virus is
>>> getting better at infecting humans or other mammals' and data suggests
>>> H5N1 'does not pass easily to people'.
>>> But it warned there is an 'increased chance' of people coming into
>>> contact with the virus due to the sky-high rates among birds.
>>> It urged Brits to avoid contact with sick or dead wild birds in parks
>>> and waterways and wash their hands after feeding wild birds, to reduce
>>> the risk of exposure to bird flu.
>>> Dr Meera Chand, incident director for avian influenza at the UKHSA,
>>> said: 'The latest evidence suggests that the avian influenza viruses
>>> we're seeing circulating in birds do not currently spread easily to people.
>>> 'However, viruses constantly evolve, and we remain vigilant for any
>>> evidence of changing risk to the population, as well as working with
>>> partners to address gaps in the scientific evidence.'
>>> The weekly update also revealed that 2,310 Brits have been monitored by
>>> UKHSA officials between October 1 2022 and February 14 after being
>>> exposed to bird flu.
>>> Imperial College London published a paper in March 2020 on the potential
>>> impact of coronavirus. It weighed up options on how a lockdown could
>>> reduce demand on hospitals
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> Imperial College London published a paper in March 2020 on the potential
>>> impact of coronavirus. It weighed up options on how a lockdown could
>>> reduce demand on hospitals
>>> The UKHSA graph shows the number of cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain
>>> detected among mammals, such as foxes and otters, between October 2021
>>> and January 2023 in England (light blue), Scotland (dark blue) and Wales
>>> (green)
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> The UKHSA graph shows the number of cases of the H5N1 bird flu strain
>>> detected among mammals, such as foxes and otters, between October 2021
>>> and January 2023 in England (light blue), Scotland (dark blue) and Wales
>>> (green)
>>> The graph, from the UKHSA, displays cases of H5N1 among mammals
>>> worldwide between January 2020 and February 2023
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> The graph, from the UKHSA, displays cases of H5N1 among mammals
>>> worldwide between January 2020 and February 2023
>>> The UKHSA graphic shows the number of people exposed to bird flu between
>>> October 2022 and February 2023, by region in England
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> The UKHSA graphic shows the number of people exposed to bird flu between
>>> October 2022 and February 2023, by region in England
>>> But samples taken from those who developed any cold or flu-like symptoms
>>> in the three weeks after coming into contact with the virus revealed
>>> none had become infected.
>>> The UK's avian flu outbreak began in October 2021, after health chiefs
>>> spotted the virus was still spreading among birds after the spring and
>>> summer months – when they usually decline.
>>> Health chiefs have warned that the winter migration of wild birds is
>>> likely to further hike avian flu transmission in the coming months. This
>>> is because migrating birds can infect local kept and wild birds, driving
>>> up cases.
>>> As well as record cases in birds, the virus has also been spotted in
>>> other animals, such as foxes, otters and seals in the UK, mink in Spain
>>> and sea lions in Peru.
>>> This sparked concern that the virus may be spreading between the
>>> mammals, which would indicate it had picked up a troublesome mutation
>>> that could, in theory, make it easier for humans to become infected.
>>>
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> Nearly 300 confirmed cases of H5N1 have been detected among birds in
>>> England since the current outbreak began in October 2021. However, the
>>> true toll is thought to be much higher. The map shows the areas where
>>> cases have been detected and where 3km (blue dots) and 10km (yellow
>>> dots) protection zones have been imposed — meaning enhanced infection
>>> control measures are in place among those who have birds
>>> Pictured: A dead bird in Queens Park in Heywood, Rochdale, amid the
>>> bird flu outbreak
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> Pictured: A dead bird in Queens Park in Heywood, Rochdale, amid the
>>> bird flu outbreak
>>> Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus
>>> after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
>>> No one else caught the virus
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus
>>> after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
>>> No one else caught the virus
>>> Further testing is still required to determine if mammals are
>>> transmitting the virus, however.
>>> But there has only been one case of a British person becoming infected
>>> since the current outbreak began.
>>> Alan Gosling, a retired engineer in Devon, caught the virus in early
>>> 2022 after his ducks, some of which lived inside his home, became infected.
>>> Cambodian Health Minister Mam Bunheng warned that bird flu poses an
>>> exceptionally high risk to children who may be feeding or collecting
>>> eggs from domesticated poultry, playing with the birds or cleaning their
>>> cages.
>>> The virus can spread to humans when a person has an open wound exposed
>>> to an infected bird. Usually, infections occur when a person is pecked
>>> or clawed by a bird. Transmission can also occur from a dead bird to a
>>> human.
>>> America is still 'fundamentally unprepared' for zoonotic diseases
>>>
>>> Harvard and NYU experts have described it as the greatest threat to
>>> humankind and warn much of the world in unprepared
>>> ADVERTISEMENT
>>> World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom
>>> Ghebreyesus said the agency still deems the risk of bird flu to humans
>>> as low. 'But we cannot assume that will remain the case, and we must
>>> prepare for any change in the status quo,' he said earlier this month.
>>> He advised people not to touch dead or sick wild animals and for
>>> countries to strengthen their surveillance of settings where people and
>>> animals interact.
>>> Cambodia had 56 human cases of H5N1 from 2003 through 2014, and 37 of
>>> them were fatal, according to the World Health Organization.
>>> Each person had samples were taken for analysis for a lab in Phnom Penh,
>>> the nation's capital, around 40 miles west of the rural province of Prey
>>> Veng, where the suspected cases were detected.
>>> It is unclear whether this group of people had any interaction with the
>>> 11-year-old girl, or if they come from the same part of the province. It
>>> is also unclear whether they had interactions with any birds that could
>>> be carrying the virus.
>>> More than 1.1million people live in Prey Veng, it is the third most
>>> populous province in the country, and known to be densely populated.
>>> Prey Veng is also were the girl who eventually died lived. She became
>>> ill on February 16 and was sent to be treated at a hospital in the capital
>>> She was diagnosed last Wednesday after suffering a fever up to 39C
>>> (102F) with coughing and throat pain. She died shortly after her
>>> diagnosis, the Health Ministry said in a statement Wednesday night.
>>> There are no treatments designed specifically for humans infected with
>>> bird flu, let alone H5N1. Those who fall ill are treated with regular
>>> antiviral drugs such as Zanamivir and Peramivir.
>>> In case of an outbreak, the US does have a stockpile of vaccines
>>> designed to prevent infection from H5N1.
>>> It is sold under the name Audenz and was approved in 2021 by the Food
>>> and Drug Administration for people six months and older. It is a
>>> two-dose vaccine.
>>> Health officials have taken samples from a dead wild bird at a
>>> conservation area near the Prey Veng girl's home, the ministry said in
>>> another statement Thursday. It said teams in the area would also warn
>>> residents about touching dead and sick birds.
>>> Experts warn that the virus is adapting in ways that allow it to cause
>>> outbreaks in other mammals - increasing the risk it could spread among
>>> people.
>>> In October, an outbreak of the bird flu ravaged a population of 52,000
>>> mink at a farm in Spain.
>>> Some of the critters were initially infected by eating meat from birds
>>> that died while infected.
>>> There were also signs of mink-to-mink spread of the flu, which is
>>> unusual for a mammal population and signals a change to the virus.
>>> In Peru, 716 sea lions were found to have died from the bird flu in
>>> recent weeks. Local officials worry that the virus has also spread
>>> between the animals - which are also mammals.
>>> The world is suffering what has been described as the worst bird flu
>>> outbreak ever recorded, with over 58million birds in the US alone having
>>> been culled or killed by the virus over the past year.
>>> Unlike usual spikes in bird flu that last months, this outbreak
>>> sustained itself through the summer of 2022 and is spread almost
>>> entirely by wild birds
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> Unlike usual spikes in bird flu that last months, this outbreak
>>> sustained itself through the summer of 2022 and is spread almost
>>> entirely by wild birds
>>> For the US poultry industry the battle has been deadliest in history.
>>> The outbreak has ramped up pressure on the industry to protect its
>>> flocks and forced them to kill millions of birds to avoid the deadly spread.
>>> To protect their domesticated birds, farmers around the country have
>>> installed extra protections from wild flocks, including installing
>>> vibrating mechanisms in containers holding chicken feed to avoid worker
>>> contamination.
>>> The disease is so contagious that wind can carry bird droppings to a
>>> barn vent causing the virus to circulate inside.
>>> It can also be spread to commercial flocks by workers stepping on
>>> wild-bird feces outside of a barn and spreading it inside with each step.
>>> Some farms have installed motion-detecting alarms, known as 'sound
>>> cannons', as well as bright laser systems to shoo away wild birds
>>> without harming them.
>>> The recent spread of the virus has lead to rampant inflation of both
>>> chicken and egg prices in the US and across the world.
>>> Federal officials also fear that the spring migration of birds could
>>> also reignite spread of the deadly virus.
>>> A Cambodian man carries dead chickens at a market in Phnom Penh - the
>>> capital and most populous city of Cambodia
>>> +16
>>> View gallery
>>> A Cambodian man carries dead chickens at a market in Phnom Penh - the
>>> capital and most populous city of Cambodia
>>> It comes as experts express greater fears of the threat of zoonotic
>>> diseases spreading in America. Last week, experts at Harvard University,
>>> in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and New York University, warned about the
>>> risks of zoonotic transmission.
>>> In an editorial, they accuse the US of being too obsessed with external
>>> threats such as bioterrorism and lab leaks while failing to keep a close
>>> eye on the risks in its own backyard.
>>> They called for an overhaul of regulatory agencies, including the US
>>> Department of Agriculture.
>>> Experts have already warned that the next zoonotic outbreak could occur
>>> in China — because of its wet food markets — and Rwanda and Brazil —
>>> where urbanization and expanding agriculture are bringing people into
>>> contact with wild animals they would previously have been separated from.
>>> But they also warn that Texas — one of the world's leading producers of
>>> meat — could also be a hotbed for new dangerous viruses.
>>> In the piece, they urged: 'What is needed is not simply for agencies to
>>> do their jobs better or to paper over the gaps, but a fundamental
>>> restructuring of the way that human-animal interfaces are governed.
>>> 'A One Health approach, which NBS-22 claims as its guiding principle,
>>> would take the health of other living things not merely as the
>>> occasional means or obstacles to human health, but as continuous with it.
>>> 'The first step in implementing such an approach would be to create a
>>> high-level process for integrating the broken mosaic of multiple
>>> agencies, with their unclear and sometimes competing mandates, into an
>>> effective, comprehensive regime.'
>>> Figures show 10billion animals were killed for meat in the US in 2022,
>>> the highest number on record and up 204million in 2021.
>>> The country is also a leading importer of live animals — which could
>>> harbor diseases — bringing in about 200million annually according to
>>> estimates.
>>> There is also a large wild game market which raises about 40million
>>> animals annually.
>>> Scientists warned that infections could jump from animals to humans at
>>> any stage in the meat supply chain — from the rearing facility right
>>> through to slaughter and where it is consumed.
>>> They warn there is a higher risk with live imported animals because
>>> these come into the US with no health and safety checks on arrival,
>>> meaning they could bring new diseases into the country.
>>> There is also a higher risk with game animals, because these are not
>>> sanitized or regulated before being eaten.
>>> Evidence is mounting that the US is already facing a growing number of
>>> animal-to-human infections.
>>> The country recorded more animal-to-human infections in the second half
>>> of the 20th century than any other country globally, the scientists said.
>>
>> While COVID-19 has been detected in the wild deer populations in the
>> U.S., there hasn't been any reports of deer-to-human/hunter infections
>> yet. The worst-case scenario here is that the millions with long-COVID
>> have a terrible 100% CFR when H5N1 joins the on-going pandemic.
>>
>> In the interim, the only *healthy* way to stop the on-going pandemic,
>> thereby saving lives, in the UK & elsewhere is by rapidly (
>>
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) finding out at any given moment,
>> including even while on-line, who among us are unwittingly contagious
>> (i.e pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) in order to
>>
http://WDJW.great-site.net/ConvinceItForward (John 15:12) for them to
>> call their doctor and self-quarantine per their doctor in hopes of
>> stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the best while
>> preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage mutations
>> and others like the Omicron, Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda, Mu &
>> Delta lineage mutations combining via slip-RNA-replication to form
>> hybrids like
http://tinyurl.com/Deltamicron that may render current
>> COVID vaccines/monoclonals/medicines/pills no longer effective.
>>
>> Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry (
http://tinyurl.com/RapidOmicronTest
>> ) and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
>>
>> So how are you ?
>>
>
> I am wonderfully hungry!
Source:
https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/vzgjegyll5M/m/rX6ffLQLBAAJ