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    arthur garbayo <arthur...@gmail.com> Feb 09 08:09PM -0200  

    [image: Economist Intelligence Unit]
     
    *Iraq oil: Crude restraints*
    February 8th 2012
     
     
    FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
     
    *With one of* *Iraq**’s** senior leaders on the run,* *political* *tensions
    are running high.* *Will** a worsening political climate and other problems
    undermine progress in* *the country’s oil* *sector**?*
     
    The dominant narrative of Iraq’s oil industry in the past few years has
    been a positive one. Improved security has given foreign oil companies the
    confidence to funnel significant resources into Iraq through
    government service-contracts.
    The fourth round of bidding for these since 2009 will take place on May
    30th-31st, as Iraq pursues ambitious oil output targets. It wants to
    produce 12m barrels/day (b/d) by 2017, up from around 2.7m b/d last year.
    (This includes only production at fields in the south of the country, not
    that of the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north.)
     
    Also slotting into place is the infrastructure needed to bring millions
    more barrels of Iraqi oil to overseas markets. Notably, Basrah port’s
    oil-export capacity will jump by 900,000 b/d with the opening of a new “single
    point mooring” (SPM) terminal that will allow tankers to load and offload
    oil. This is expected in mid-February, following a delay. Two further SPMs
    are due to come online later this year, raising export capacity from the
    country’s southern oilfields, currently about 1.7m b/d, by 2.7m b/d. Abdul
    Karim al-Luaibi, the oil minister, says that these developments and
    production increases will allow Iraq to boost exports by as much as 400,000
    b/d by March. Yet a rise in political instability threatens to make
    conditions for oil companies in Iraq more problematic.
     
    *Pulling out*
     
    In mid-December, Iraq’s judiciary served one of the most prominent Sunni
    Arab leaders, vice-president, Tareq al-Hashemi, with an arrest warrant. The
    charge, which he denies, was directing hit squads to target rival political
    leaders. Mr Hashemi promptly fled to the KRG enclave, where he remains
    under the protection of the KRG leadership.
     
    The move against Mr Hashemi, which coincided with the final withdrawal of
    US troops from Iraq, has raised fears that the president, Nouri al-Maliki,
    is bent on amassing power for his Shia-dominated Dawa party. Even nominal
    allies are worried. Many in Iraq fret that the attempted arrest of such a
    senior Sunni politician augurs further sectarian conflict. Recent efforts
    by three Sunni-majority provinces to become autonomous regions underscore
    the risks; violence has spiked since the American pull-out.
     
    Despite massive investment in security, oil infrastructure also remains
    vulnerable to attack. On January 12th, militants damaged an installation
    used by Angola’s Sonangol, near Mosul, the capital of the restive Ninawa
    governorate. Sonangol is developing two fields in the area, Najmah and
    Qaiyarah, with a combined production target of 230,000 b/d.
     
    Some companies working in Iraq appear to be getting the jitters. Iraqi oil
    officials said last week that a deal under which Norway’s Statoil would
    dispose of its 19% share of the Lukoil-led West Qurna phase 2 oilfield was
    in its “final stages”. The joint venture has targeted initial production of
    400,000 b/d by 2013, eventually rising to 1.8m b/d.
     
    On top of these political and security risks, some oil firms that have
    signed contracts with Baghdad are reportedly troubled by more mundane
    aspects of doing business in the country. Red tape and the slow-moving
    bureaucracy attract fewer headlines than bombings and assassinations, but
    are nonetheless off-putting. ExxonMobil, which signed a controversial
    six-block deal with the KRG to explore in Kurdish areas in October, is
    understood to be particularly frustrated with tardy payments for work at
    its West Qurna phase 1 field. Some wonder whether the hold-up is
    politically motivated: Baghdad does not recognise the Kurds’ right to award
    oil licenses and has threatened to kick Exxon out of West Qurna phase 1 and
    replace it with Royal Dutch Shell.
     
    *A law unto itself*
     
    Then there is the protracted quest for an oil law to set a framework for
    the industry. A first draft was submitted to parliament in 2007, but
    legislation
    is bogged down in political disagreements. Hopes rose recently that the
    hydrocarbons law would be passed in February, but appear to have faded. Mr
    Maliki’s top adviser, Thamir Ghadhban, on February 2nd dampened
    expectations. “I am not optimistic that the energy law will be adopted in
    the coming months and I would be happy if it is adopted by the end of the
    year,” he said.
     
    Differences over the proposed hydrocarbons legislation remain in five
    areas, according to a member of parliament who sits on the legislature's
    oil and energy committee. They concern the agency that will oversee Iraq’s
    oil and gas sector; the responsibilities and composition of a Federal Oil
    and Gas Council; the role of the Ministry of Oil; contractual and licensing
    procedures for foreign oil companies; and how to resolve the differences
    between the KRG and Baghdad over contracts already signed with foreign
    operators in the north. It is an imposing list.
     
    *Silver lining?*
     
    While Mr Maliki’s attention is elsewhere and the Baghdad government is mired
    in chaos, the KRG is forging ahead with deals like that with Exxon. It
    wants to raise oil production within its borders to 200,000 b/d this year
    and 1m b/d by 2015.
     
    To do so, KRG officials want to whittle down a minnow-dominated roster of
    oil companies to a smaller group of stronger, better-capitalised players.
    With virtually all of the KRG’s oilfield blocks parcelled out among several
    dozen operators, the time seems ripe for larger firms to begin bolstering
    their presence. UK-listed Genel Energy, for instance, announced in
    mid-January that it is taking over the entire foreign interest in the Chia
    Surkh block. The KRG oil sector appears to be due for a surge in mergers
    and acquisitions that will deepen the involvement of big players—a
    development that could further antagonise Baghdad.
     
    Kurdistan’s independent approach to promoting its oil industry has strained
    relations with Baghdad and appeared to put back progress towards an oil
    law. Yet, ironically, it is possible that the KRG-Exxon deal could be just
    what is needed to force a way through the impasse. Given that MR Maliki is
    fighting battles on more than one front, he could be willing to forgo his
    deputy and hardline stalwart on the Exxon issue, Hussein al-Shahristani,
    and agree terms on a law that recognises deals already signed by the KRG. An
    outcome along these lines would mark a happy turn in the Iraqi oil story.
     
    Source: Industry
    Briefing<http://viewswire.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=eiu_Industry_Briefing_enhancements&page_title=Industry%20Briefing&rf=0>
     
    --
     
    *Para ter mais informação acesse estes portais:
    www.desenvolvimentistas.com.br e http://www.joserobertoafonso.ecn.br/*

     

    arthur garbayo <arthur...@gmail.com> Feb 09 08:07PM -0200  

    [image: Economist Intelligence Unit]
     
    *Spain economy: Labour pains*
    February 7th 2012
    Printer version<http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWPrintVW3&article_id=1498796134&printer=printer>
     
    FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
     
    *A central tenet of the new government's policy programme is to introduce
    labour market reforms to improve the economy's longer-term competitiveness.
    Restrictive labour laws and a high degree of wage regulation have
    persistently undermined the Spanish economy's capacity to improve skills
    and productivity. The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, seems determined to
    push through radical changes to the rigid two-tiered structure of the
    labour market and decentralise collective wage-setting procedures, although
    implementation risk suggests that their overall impact over the near term
    will be modest. Recent data underline the need for reform, with employment
    declining sharply in the final quarter of 2011 and the rate of youth
    unemployment rising close to 50%.*
     
    Recognising that the political mood across Europe has shifted slightly in
    recent months from an earlier blinkered focus on "more austerity" to
    address growing concerns over future growth prospects, since entering
    office late last year Spain's new centre-right Popular Party government has
    placed a clear emphasis on the need to foster a more growth-oriented
    economic strategy.
     
    The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has called for a European investment
    programme to help stimulate demand, and the finance minister, Cristóbal
    Montoro, has unveiled tax-cutting plans for small businesses and the
    self-employed, while ruling out a widely-anticipated increase in
    value-added tax (VAT). There is an acknowledgement among Spain's European
    partners, and in financial markets, that Mr Rajoy is prepared to try to
    push through meaningful structural reforms that improve the underlying
    efficiency of the economy, although there are clear implementation risks.
     
    Of particular interest in Spain is Mr Rajoy's intention to proceed promptly
    with a reform of labour market regulations. At best incremental changes
    over the past decade mean that the labour market remains one of the weakest
    areas of the country's business environment, on account of its restrictive
    labour laws and a relatively high degree of wage regulation. The market is
    characterised by a duality between fixed-term (temporary) workers with
    little or no protection from dismissal, and "permanent" employees with
    indefinite contracts, who are often expensive to lay off. This two-tier
    system distorts incentives and undermines the economy's capacity to improve
    skills and productivity. Moreover, centralised collective bargaining
    procedures oblige companies to make pay awards that are often unrelated to
    individual company performance. As a result, labour market adjustment, when
    it occurs, works more through quantity than price: faced with rigid wages
    in a downturn, massive job losses occur.
     
    *Generation gap*
     
    This has certainly been the case in Spain. According to the country's main
    labour survey, employment fell by a seasonally adjusted 248,000 in the
    final quarter of 2011, a similar decline to that registered in the previous
    three-month period (237,000) and the worst rate of job destruction since
    early 2009. The figures confirm that the economy has entered a renewed and
    damaging contraction. This brought to 2.5m the number of net jobs that have
    been lost since the second quarter of 2008—about 12% of total employment at
    the time—and leaves unemployment standing at a seasonally adjusted 5.3m, a
    record high. The headline unemployment rate is now 22.8% of the active
    population (23% on a seasonally adjusted basis): the rate would be higher
    if it were not for a decline of 24,000 in the number of people seeking work
    in the final quarter of 2011.
     
    By age group, an extraordinary 48.6% of those aged 16-24 are now unemployed
    (compared with 21.4% of the 25-54 age group and 15.6% of those over 55)—a
    statistic that underlines the urgent need for reform. By sector, quarterly
    employment fell by a further 81,000 in construction (more than half of all
    construction jobs have been lost since 2007) and by 55,800 in industry, but
    increased by 67,800 in agriculture. For the second consecutive quarter the
    service sector shed the most jobs, with employment falling by 179,200.
    Moreover, job losses are accelerating in the public sector, where total
    employment fell by 84,500 in the final quarter (not seasonally adjusted).
     
    These are not workers with the full status and entitlements
    of*funcionarios* (civil
    servants), who enjoy virtually iron-clad job security, but the near 40% of
    Spanish public-sector employees who do not enjoy such status and are
    subject to standard labour law. This is an inevitable adjustment in the
    current circumstances, given that total public sector employment rose by
    almost 10% between 2002 and mid-2011. With the shakeout in the labour
    market limited to the private sector during the first four years of the
    crisis; as fiscal retrenchment is intensified, this is no longer the case,
    with widespread lay-offs occurring particularly at the level of local and
    regional government.
     
    *Wage restraint*
     
    Anticipating Mr Rajoy's reform proposals, and in the hope of affecting its
    outcome, the country’s main trade unions, UGT and CCOO, and business
    associations, CEOE and Cepyme, recently reached an agreement of their own,
    albeit focused more on wage settlements than structural reform. The
    agreement establishes a virtual freeze in nominal wages over the next 2-3
    years, and a probable decline in real wage terms. The deal is significant,
    and represents an acknowledgement on the part of the trade unions that a
    substantial improvement in unit labour costs cannot be achieved exclusively
    through productivity gains, but also requires greater wage constraint.
    Since the economic crisis began, unit labour costs have fallen, but mainly
    by means of massive job losses rather than real wage moderation. With
    unemployment now standing above 20%, a new means of adjustment had to be
    found.
     
    The agreement sets guidelines for contractual pay increases, to be set by
    collective bargaining processes, of 0.5% in 2012 and 0.6% in 2013. In 2014,
    it accommodates the possibility of higher wage growth, but conditional upon
    the strength of the economy: if GDP rises by more than 2%, for example,
    wages will then rise by 1.5%. The agreement also abandons full indexation
    to consumer price inflation, thereby facilitating declines in real wages.
     
    At present, most wage agreements include an indexation clause which
    compensates workers when inflation rises above target, thereby guaranteeing
    real purchasing power. This is to be replaced by a new, somewhat convoluted
    mechanism, designed to only partially compensate workers in the event of
    higher-than-expected inflation. Moreover, the inflation index used will be
    either the Spanish national index or the harmonised euro zone index,
    whichever is lowest; the index used will also change if petrol prices rise
    by more than 10%, in which case a measure of core inflation (excluding
    petrol prices) will be used instead.
     
    The agreement between employers and trade unions represents a sea-change in
    the wage bargaining process. It was also accompanied by proposed reforms to
    collective bargaining processes, including easier opt-out clauses for firms
    in financial difficulties and greater flexibility in the organisation of
    working hours. The surprising reach of the agreement probably reflects the
    hopes among trade unions that evidence of concessions might be rewarded
    with only a further modest reform of labour market regulations by the
    government. However, Mr Rajoy, while welcoming the news of the wage deal,
    has sought to dispel any such impression, indicating that the government
    will look to press ahead with a more far-reaching shake-up of the labour
    market later this month.
    The Economist Intelligence Unit
     
    --
     
    *Para ter mais informação acesse estes portais:
    www.desenvolvimentistas.com.br e http://www.joserobertoafonso.ecn.br/*

     

    arthur garbayo <arthur...@gmail.com> Feb 09 07:26PM -0200  

    *9 de fevereiro de 2012*
     
     
    *
    *
     
    ------------------------------
    * *
     
     
     
    Os Conselheiros do Instituto de Estudos para o Desenvolvimento Industrial –
    IEDI externam seu pesar pelo falecimento de seu Conselheiro Emérito
     
    *Abraham Kasinsky*
     
    Símbolo de empresário inovador e pioneiro,
    foi fundador do IEDI.
     
     
     
    ------------------------------
     
     
     
     
     
     
    --
     
    *Para ter mais informação acesse estes portais:
    www.desenvolvimentistas.com.br e http://www.joserobertoafonso.ecn.br/*

     

    clipping-d...@googlegroups.com Feb 09 07:12PM  

    =============================================================================
    Resumo do tópico de hoje
    =============================================================================
     
    Grupo: clipping-d...@googlegroups.com
    URL: http://groups.google.com/group/clipping-de-esquerda/topics
     
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    =============================================================================
    Tópico: Privatização à moda Dilma Rousseff : vai sobrar para o BNDES...
    URL: http://groups.google.com/group/clipping-de-esquerda/t/d874ffda911fa1ea
    =============================================================================
     
    ---------- 1 de 1 ----------
    De: "Mauricio David" <mauric...@terra.com.br>
    Data: Feb 09 04:33PM -0200
    URL: http://groups.google.com/group/clipping-de-esquerda/msg/d63e26d37dd49da7
     
    Direto da fonte - Sonia Racy
    Privatização à moda Dilma Rousseff : vai sobrar para o BNDES...
     
     
    Direto da fonte - Sonia Racy
    http://blogs.estadao.com.br/sonia-racy/
    --
    No ar <http://blogs.estadao.com.br/sonia-racy/no-ar-20/>
    8 de fevereiro de 2012 | 23h09
     
    Direto da fonte
     
    O governo Dilma está, sim, preocupado com o resultado do recente leilão dos aeroportos. Não será surpresa se houver questionamentos em relação aos vencedores em Brasília e Viracopos.

    Acredita-se que há espaço jurídico para isso.

    No ar 2
    Quem diz que a francesa Egis Avia (do consórcio que levou Viracopos) não tem experiência em aeroportos, mente.

    Ela ostenta nada menos que 20% da empresa que opera dois terminais em. Chipre.

    No ar 3
    Já a operadora que ficou com Brasília, pertencente ao argentino-armênio Eduardo Eurnekian, tem um modo "sui generis" de fazer negócios.

    A taxa de embarque nos aeroportos que administra pelo país de Cristina Kirchner é paga em guichê separado, entrando direto nos cofres da empresa. Dizem que o moço não confia em repasses.
     
     
     
    =============================================================================
    Tópico: Privatização à moda da Dilma provoca surpresa em observadores
    URL: http://groups.google.com/group/clipping-de-esquerda/t/b1e2746ec19bc3c0
    =============================================================================
     
    ---------- 1 de 1 ----------
    De: "Mauricio David" <mauric...@terra.com.br>
    Data: Feb 09 04:28PM -0200
    URL: http://groups.google.com/group/clipping-de-esquerda/msg/40602a83f3a128bb
     
    Estou surpreso!Privatização à moda Fernando Henrique era assim : os fundos de pensão eram pressionados a entrar nos consórcios, o BNDES financiava os "compradores" com juros subsidiados, bons ágios eram obtidos porque os preços mínimos eram habilmente jogados lá prá baixo... Faziam-se negócios do arco da velha, como foi o caso notório da Vale do Rio Doce ( um patrimonio que vale hoje centenas de bilhões e foi vendido por um mísero cheque de três bilhões...). Muita gente se enriqueceu no processo... Era o que se convencionou chamar de "A Privataria Tucana".
    Privatização à moda Dilma Rousseff é assim : os fundos de pensão são pressionados a entrar nos consórcios, o BNDES financiará os investimentos com juros subsidiados, bons ágios são obtidos porque os preços mínimos foram habilmente jogados lá prá baixo...( em que outro país do mundo preços mínimos estabelecidos em 1/5 dos preços finais não abririam discussões sobre a competencia técnica de quem os estabeleceu...ou a má fé...). É o que será conhecido como "A Privataria Petista".
    No final, vai sobrar para o BNDES que terá que financiar empresas notoriamente despreparadas e arcar com todos recursos para os investimentos previstos...
     
    .-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
     
    From: Marcio
    Sent: Thursday, February 09, 2012 12:48 PM
    To: 4MaurícioDavid
    Subject: Estou surpreso!
     
     
     
    Maurício,
     
    Confesso estou surpreso com a notícia de que o Mantega anuncia que não haverá mais privatizações de aeroportos, que alguns vencedores poderão perder as concessões até por não possuírem as qualificações necessárias e que até a própria Dilma não gostou dos resultados.
     
    _ Como você entende isso?
     
    Estou para lá de surpreso! Ainda não sei como interpretar estes fatos até porque ontem o José Dirceu meteu falação pelos quatro ventos.
     
    Não sei! Vou esperar para ouvir mais notícias e pensar melhor. Estas até tenderão a ser desmentidas mas são verdadeiras porque foram ditas no primeiro impulso e depois entra o pessoal de comunicação, empresários interessados e aí sairão matérias dirigidas.
     
    Abraços,
     
    Marcio
     
     
     
     
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     
     
     
    http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/noticia/2012-02-08/nao-havera-mais-privatizacoes-de-aeroportos-avisa-mantega
    --
     
    Não haverá mais privatizações de aeroportos, avisa Mantega
    08/02/2012 - 17h15

    Wellton Máximo e Luciene Cruz
    Repórteres da Agência Brasil
     
     
    Brasília - A concessão à iniciativa privada de outros aeroportos está descartada, garantiu hoje (8) o ministro da Fazenda, Guido Mantega. Ele negou que o governo pretenda privatizar os aeroportos internacionais do Rio de Janeiro (Galeão-Tom Jobim) e de Confins, em Minas Gerais. O ministro também assegurou que não está em estudo a transferência de aeroportos regionais para estados e municípios. "Vamos consolidar aquilo que está sendo feito", destacou.
     
    O ministro descartou ainda a possibilidade de os R$ 24,5 bilhões obtidos pelo governo no leilão de outorgas dos aeroportos de Brasília, Guarulhos e Campinas serem usados para reforçar o superávit primário, que é a economia de recursos que o governo faz para pagar os juros da dívida pública. Apesar de, em tese, o dinheiro poder ser empregado na ampliação do esforço fiscal, o ministro garantiu que os recursos financiarão investimentos nos terminais aéreos do país nos próximos anos.
     
    De acordo com Mantega, as receitas dos leilões, que irão para o Fundo Nacional da Aviação Civil, serão aplicadas principalmente na melhoria de aeroportos regionais. "O dinheiro não será utilizado para pagamento de dívida ou coisa parecida. Por lei, os recursos têm de entrar na conta única [do Tesouro Nacional], mas irão para esse fundo financiar novos investimentos no setor aeroportuário, principalmente nos aeroportos regionais, que têm rentabilidade menor e não são passíveis de concessão", declarou.
     
    O ministro ressaltou ainda que o modelo atual de privatizações é diferente do adotado no governo do presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso. "A nossa concessão é diferente da praticada no governo Fernando Henrique, em que a lei estabelecia que as receitas arrecadadas com concessões e privatizações tinham a obrigação de serem usadas para pagar a dívida [pública]", comentou. "A nossa forma de concessão não vai para superávit primário."
     
    Pelos critérios do Tesouro Nacional, os recursos obtidos nos leilões são registrados como receitas primárias e, em princípio, poderiam ser usados para abater os juros da dívida pública. Mesmo se a equipe econômica pretendesse reforçar o superávit primário, isso só poderia ser feito a partir de 2013 porque o próprio edital da Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (Anac) estabelece que a primeira parcela do pagamento só será paga 12 meses depois da assinatura do contrato.
     
    O ministro disse ainda que as empresas vencedoras serão avaliadas e que elas devem ter capacidade própria de investimento e gerenciamento dos aeroportos, apesar da ajuda do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES). O banco estatal de fomento vai financiar até 80% dos investimentos previstos para ampliação e modernização dos terminais. "A parte operacional é tão importante quanto a parte financeira e de sustentabilidade. A empresa tem de ter condição financeira para fazer investimento porque todos os aeroportos exigem investimentos. Ela tem de ter capacidade operacional para que nós tenhamos excelente serviço nos aeroportos brasileiros".
     
    Sobre os cortes no Orçamento da União, o ministro disse apenas que o valor não está definido, mas que o contingenciamento (bloqueio de verbas) seguirá o modelo adotado em 2011. "O contingenciamento será da mesma forma do ano passado, com outros valores, mas será dentro dos moldes do ano passado. Haverá [superávit] primário cheio [sem recursos contábeis] e contingenciamento suficiente para gerar esse resultado".
     
    Edição: Vinicius Doria
     
     
     
    Atualizado em 05/09/2011
     
     
     
    =============================================================================
    Tópico: [lalineadefuego] DEMANDA CONTRA “EL GRAN HERMANO” REDUCE LA HISTORIA A CASUÍSTICA. Por Gustavo Abad
    URL: http://groups.google.com/group/clipping-de-esquerda/t/4b0a57e01de18a96
    =============================================================================
     
    ---------- 1 de 1 ----------
    De: Ana Santanna <anapai...@gmail.com>
    Data: Feb 09 03:15PM -0200
    URL: http://groups.google.com/group/clipping-de-esquerda/msg/5acb106f05b3654c
     
    *DEMANDA CONTRA “EL GRAN HERMANO” REDUCE
    LA HISTORIA A CASUÍSTICA*
    Por Gustavo Abad. (publicado inicialmente el 6 de abril 2011)
    Cuando diario Expreso publicó el reportaje “Las obras que ejecuta el hermano
    del presidente”, en junio de 2009, era difícil prever que, veintiún meses
    después, los periodistas Juan Carlos Calderón y Cristian Zurita, principales
    responsables de ese trabajo, tendrían que cargar sobre sus huesos y recursos
    el efecto de los golpes bajos que han intercambiado en los últimos cuatro
    años los poderes político y mediático en el Ecuador......
    LEER TODO:
    http://lalineadefuego.info/2011/04/06/demanda-contra-%e2%80%9cel-gran-hermano%e2%80%9d-reduce-la-historia-a-casuistica/
     
    *“LA GENTE QUE PROTESTA PUEDE AYUDAR A LA SUSTENTABILIDAD DEL PLANETA”:*
    *ENTREVISTA JOAN MARTÍNEZ ALIER**
    Por Rubén Martín Revista Magis <http://www.magis.iteso.mx>
    ¿Qué plantea el acercamiento a la ecología desde la posición política?
    La ecología política empezó en la geografía, en la antropología y, sobre
    todo, en el sur del planeta. El libro que fundó la ecología política es de
    Blaikie y Brookfield, se llama Degradación de los suelos y plantea que
    cuando
    hay erosión se pierden los suelos, y que esto no se debe tanto a la
    sobrepoblación sino con mucha frecuencia a un exceso de producción para la
    exportación o para otros mercados. O sea que los culpables de la erosión no
    eran tanto campesinos pobres sino mas bien el sistema exterior de producción
    para exportar.....
    LEER TODO:
    http://lalineadefuego.info/2012/02/09/la-gente-que-protesta-puede-ayudar-a-la-sustentabilidad-del-planeta-entrevista-joan-martinez-alier/
     
    *
    “Es triste el papel de los asambleístas, senadores y diputados, que lo
    único que hacen es cumplir órdenes y no deliberar nunca…..”*
    *BOLIVIA, TIPNIS: LA CONSULTA GUBERNAMENTAL
    DEPREDADORA E INCONSULTA*
    Raúl Prada Alcoreza
    5 de febrero de 2012
    A veces la actividad de los políticos se parece a una trama de novela, tan
    intricada como las complicadas historias que aparecen, cuyos personajes se
    ven
    empujados a hacer cosas que cada vez los sumergen en el laberinto de
    pasiones.
    Sus actos provocan consecuencias no controladas. No pueden salir del
    marasmo en
    el que se han metido, que es como un terreno lleno de accidentes.....
    LEER TODO:
    http://lalineadefuego.info/2012/02/09/bolivia-tipnis-la-consulta-gubernamental-depredadora-e-inconsulta/
     
     
     
    --
     
    [A rede castorphoto é uma rede independente tem perto de 41.000
    correspondentes no Brasil e no exterior. Estão divididos em 28
    operadores/repetidores e 232 distribuidores; não está vinculada a nenhum
    portal nem a nenhum blog ou sítio. Os operadores recolhem ou recebem
    material de diversos blogs, sítios, agências, jornais e revistas
    eletrônicos, articulistas e outras fontes no Brasil e no

     

    arthur garbayo <arthur...@gmail.com> Feb 09 04:11PM -0200  

    **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ****
     
    ****
     
    ** **
     
    Análisis** **económico****
     
    9** **Febrero** **2012****
     
    ** **
     
    Situación** **Global****
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    Estimados** **lectores,** ******
     
    Adjuntamos** **nuestro** **último** **Situación** **Global,** **de** **9** *
    *de** **febrero** **de** **2012.****
     
    ** **
     
    *Download<http://www.bbvaresearch.com/KETD/fbin/mult/1202_Situacionglobal_tcm346-286433.pdf?ts=922012>
    *****
     
    <http://www.bbvaresearch.com/KETD/fbin/mult/1202_Situacionglobal_tcm346-286433.pdf?ts=922012>
    ****
     
    ** **
     
    **· ***La economía mundial se desacelera*.**
    **El** **crecimiento** **se** **recuperará** **en** **la** **segunda** **
    mitad** **de** **2012,** **liderado** **por** **las** **economías** **
    emergentes.****
     
    **· ***Los riesgos a las previsiones de
    crecimiento mundial están fuertemente sesgados a la baja*,** **dada** **la**
    **continuación** **de** **la** **crisis** **soberana** **y** **financiera**
    **en** **Europa.****
     
    **· ***Esta crisis ha empujado a Europa a la
    recesión*.** **Las** **sucesivas** **cumbres** **europeas** **desde** **
    octubre** **y** **la** **intervención** **del** **BCE** **sólo** **ha** **
    servido** **para** **ganar** **tiempo,** **pero** **aún** **se** **requieren
    ** **avances** **sustanciales.****
     
    **· ***Las economías emergentes se dirigen a
    un aterrizaje suave*,** **apoyados** **en** **una** **resistente** **demanda
    ** **interna.** **Las** **políticas** **económicas** **girarán** **hacia** *
    *el** **apoyo** **al** **crecimiento****
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    Escenarios Económicos****
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    Juan Ruiz ****
     
    juan...@bbva.com****
     
    Rodrigo Falbo****
     
    rodrig...@bbva.com****
     
    Jaime Martínez Martín****
     
    j.martin...@bbva.com****
     
    Jorge Rodríguez Vález****
     
    jorg...@bbva.com****
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    <http://www.bbvaresearch.com/KETD/ketd/esp/index.jsp>****
     
    [image: Adobe Systems] <http://twitter.com/#!/BBVAResearch>**
     
    │ Castellana 81, Planta 7, 28046 Madrid │ Tel.: +34 91 374 60 00 │
    www.bbvaresearch.com**
     
    ** **
     
    Antes de imprimir este mensaje, por favor, compruebe que es necesario
    hacerlo.****
     
    La presente comunicación y sus anexos quedan sujetos a confidencialidad en
    los términos establecidos en la normativa aplicable, dirigiéndose
    exclusivamente al destinatario mencionado en el encabezamiento. Son de
    exclusivo uso interno y queda prohibida su divulgación, copia, cesión,
    entrega, remisión o envío a terceros ajenos al Grupo BBVA sin
    consentimiento previo y escrito del remitente. Si ha recibido este mensaje
    por error, debe saber que su lectura, uso o copia están prohibidos y le
    rogamos que lo comunique inmediatamente mediante reenvío a la dirección
    electrónica del remitente, eliminándolo a continuación.****
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
    ** **
     
     
     
    --
     
    *Para ter mais informação acesse estes portais:
    www.desenvolvimentistas.com.br e http://www.joserobertoafonso.ecn.br/*

     

    arthur garbayo <arthur...@gmail.com> Feb 09 10:28AM -0200  

    [image: Centraal Plan Bureau]
    Currency derivatives and the disconnect between exchange rate volatility
    and international trade
     
    Exchange rate risk will only have a small effect on international
    transactions as long as this risk is easily tradable. We find evidence
    indicating that the availability of currency futures can explain the
    relatively small impact of exchange rate volatility on trade.
     
    The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade is small for
    industrialized countries, especially since the late 1980s. An explanation
    for this is Wei’s (1999) “hedging hypothesis”, which states that the
    availability of currency derivatives has changed the relation between
    exchange rate volatility and trade. Exchange rate risk will only have a
    small effect on international transactions as long as this risk is easily
    tradable. We find evidence indicating that the availability of currency
    futures can explain the relatively small impact of exchange rate volatility
    on trade.
     
    *Bas Straathof* his research activities include IPR reform (including
    patents), innovation, executive compensation, international economics, and
    economic geography. He is also affiliated with the University of Groningen
    and the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
     
     
    http://www.cpb.nl/en/publication/currency-derivatives-and-disconnect-between-exchange-rate-volatility-and-international-trade
     
     
    --
     
    *Para ter mais informação acesse estes portais:
    www.desenvolvimentistas.com.br e http://www.joserobertoafonso.ecn.br/*

     

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