Beware the E-bike menace in NYC - they must be banned

[Leroy N. Soetoro]

https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/beware-the-e-bike-menace-in-nyc-they-must-
be-banned/

Are you about to cross the street? Look both ways — and pray.

The e-bike swarm makes a stroll to the other side so risky, it’s a wonder
that pedestrians aren’t required to sign a liability release before
stepping off the curb.

The menace that sets New Yorkers scrambling for their lives at every
corner calls for only one solution:

Ban e-bikes completely, no matter how much car-hating bike advocates
scream and impatient New Yorkers gripe about their General Tso’s chicken
taking a few minutes longer to arrive.

New Yorkers must watch out for muggers and crazies lurking under scaffolds
and on subway platforms. Now, since the state legalized e-bikes in 2020,
we put our lives on the line every time we step out of our homes in broad
daylight. It will be even worse as spring turns to summer. Citi Bikes just
began rolling out 1,500 more, fancier e-bikes to its 5,000-strong fleet.

The new e-bikes have handlebar LED screens to show speed and directions.
Imagine, riders who rarely bother to look left or right can now focus all
their attention on a tiny, handlebars-mounted screen with sound!

Incredibly, e-bike riders don’t need licenses. But the two-wheel terrors
are a license to kill and maim.

The city that closes restaurants over a dead fly winks at the electric-
powered “pedal-boosting” bikes that bear down on hapless pedestrians at 25
mph — silently, often from the wrong direction, and frequently on
sidewalks (where not even regular bikes are allowed).

Cycling proponents cite the pandemic for helping to popularize e-bikes.
The logic of that isn’t clear, unless it’s that the lockdowns of 2020 and
lingering, needless restrictions caused everyone to lose their minds.

Politicians and biking “advocates” forever propose brainstorms to wish
away the e-bike carnage. Require licenses! Register the bikes! Install
more bike lanes! Tougher enforcement!

But it would be easier to hold back a killer-bees invasion with a single
can of Raid. Our streets and sidewalks are overrun. With the number of e-
bike rides in the city more than doubling from 2.7 million in 2020 to 6.7
million last year, no Mickey Mouse-level tinkering could make a
difference.

The Department of Transportation says there has been one death by e-bike
this year, and three in 2021. But the statistics, or lack thereof — the
agency does not break out non-fatal collisions — belie the disorder they
add to already near-lawless streets, and the dread they bring to millions
of New Yorkers every day.

E-bikes scare the bejeezus out of everyone except the people riding them.
Elderly and less-mobile people rightly cower at their approach.

Uptown and downtown, food deliverers zoom between restaurant sidewalk
seats and dining tents in the street heedless of traffic lights — or of
waiters who risk their lives bringing dishes to tables.

E-bikers in my Upper East Side neighborhood play a game of chicken. Ha,
ha! Let’s see how close I can come to crippling you without hitting you!

But there’s nothing funny about it.

My friend, former New York Post writer Doree Lewak, was nearly killed by a
wrong-way e-bike four years ago. The hit-and-run strike on Sixth Avenue at
West 37th Street knocked out a half-dozen of her teeth, damaged ten more,
and left her with permanent injuries.

“Gone Girl” actress Lisa Banes died of brain injuries last June after an
electric scooter, the e-bikes’ close cousin, ran her down on the Upper
West Side. An Upper West Side restaurant manager perished last summer
after being struck by an e-bike on Amsterdam Avenue.

This year, the highest body count is so far among e-bikers themselves.
Among them: an off-duty NYPD cop who lost control in Flatbush; another
Brooklyn man run over by a car after his e-bike brakes locked, causing him
to be ejected; and one man killed and a second hurt when they drove their
e-bike into a parked truck in Gravesend.

The damn things are a menace even when they aren’t even moving. Lithium
ion batteries were responsible for more than 40 fires, one of them fatal,
in the Big Apple so far this year.

It won’t be easy for Mayor Adams, the City Council or the auto-hating DOT
to pull the e-bikes’ plug. Many “progressives” would like to see them
replace cars altogether.

True leadership calls for guts. But I wouldn’t count on the pols and
bureaucrats finding their spines before the next tragedies that are
waiting to happen.



--
"LOCKDOWN", left-wing COVID fearmongering. 95% of COVID infections
recover with no after effects.

No collusion - Special Counsel Robert Swan Mueller III, March 2019.
Officially made Nancy Pelosi a two-time impeachment loser.

Donald J. Trump, cheated out of a second term by fraudulent "mail-in"
ballots. Report voter fraud: sf.n...@mail.house.gov

Thank you for cleaning up the disaster of the 2008-2017 Obama / Biden
fiasco, President Trump.

Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp. Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood
queer liberal democrat donors.

President Trump boosted the economy, reduced illegal invasions, appointed
dozens of judges and three SCOTUS justices.

[Tom Kunich]

You might as well be spitting into the wind. The leftist here would rather be executed by their present leftist regime than say so much as a single word against them. Looking at the past postings it is easy to see why, not one of them has a hold on reality any tighter than on a billion dollars.

[John B.]

"The leftist here" ????

But what is a "leftist"? the term is usually used to designate those
of a socialistic leaning... you know, those who are living on the
Government Dole.

And I read:
"In 2011 some 49.2 percent of U.S. households received benefits from
one or more government programs—about 151 million out of an estimated
306.8 million Americans—according to U.S. Census Bureau data released
last October."
https://tinyurl.com/5ee3txts

Sounds like about half of the U.S. is "leftist".
And that was in reference to the 2012 Census. No telling what the
numbers are today.

Whoops! Here is a later report:
"the Biden Administration’s revised Build Back Better Act would be by
far the largest increase in means-tested welfare spending in U.S.
history, piled on top of the existing welfare system that costs $1.16
trillion per year. The average poor family with children already
receives $65,200 in cash, food, housing, medical care, and educational
support from the taxpayer each year. The Biden plan would add at least
another $11,300, with payoffs to special-interest groups"
https://www.heritage.org/welfare/report/largest-welfare-increase-us-history-will-boost-government-support-76400-poor-family

Gee.. 65,200/52 is $1253 a week, if no vacation is taken.
So... something like half of the U.S. population is getting all this
"bread" and you talk about "leftists", "Socialists" and "Communists".
--
Cheers,

John B.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

I'd question those numbers. The $65,200 number in particular. The US Census says the median (50% above, 50% below) income in the USA in 2020 is $67,521. How could a poor family be considered poor if they are only $2,321 below the median for the whole USA? If you are only 3.4% below median income, are you really poor? Kind of like a poor guy only making $96,600 salary per year saying he is poor compared to his co-worker making $100,000. And if Joe gives another $11,300 to the poor people, then the poor would be making $76,500 per year. Or $8979 above median. I'm sure you cannot be called poor if you make that much more than median. We might run out of poor people in America. Then who would we judge and oppress? The USA needs poor people to maintain the hierarchy. Good people at the top and poor people at the bottom.

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

[John B.]

To paraphrase Will Rogers, "All I know is what I read on the Internet"
and I did include references (:-)

But the point was to demonstrate is that Tommy's commonly used
insulting descriptions of being "Left wing", "Socialist" or even
"Communist" are, to some extent perfectly true for a growing portion
of the U.S. population. And thus hardly an insult (in the U.S.) at
all.

And that is ignoring all the other "freebies" the government hands
out, like the subsidies to farmers, etc. There is even an "Oil
Subsidy... something like $14.7 billion in federal subsidies and $5.8
billion in state-level incentives, something like 80% to the oil
industry.

Lets not get into an extended discussion of the U.S. financial system
but it does seem a bit strange when the government takes some of
Andrew's (for example) income away in the guise of taxes and then pays
a portion of that to the potato framer to keep the retail price of
potato's low enough that Andrew can afford them when with lower taxes
Andrew might well be able to buy potato's at an unsubsidized price
(:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

[AMuzi]

Yes, that would seem to be the problem.

--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

[Tom Kunich]

I see that John believes that if a person takes money being handed to him that he is of definition a communist. He also has the belief that communist is somehow different than socialist. The only difference is in name alone. When the Russian socialist party went to register as a party, the name socialist was already taken so they registered as communist. Don't you find it comical that people like Frank and John that they spew communist crap and can't even recognize it for what it is? When you're so stupid that you cannot recognize social security as nothing more than a self paid retirement fund you're not able to understand anything. But stupid people remain stupid no matter what.

[John B.]

But in a more serious tone, this "social security" is essentially vote
buying... "Elect Me and I will..."
I remember seeing a news item that Biden said, before the election,
"Elect me and I will make $15/hour the minimum wage".

Back in the bad old days one went to the "Ward Boss" and he got you a
job "on the garbage" or "down the Edison" and of course you voted as
he suggested. Sort of "tit for tat".

Now, in more enlightened times, it is "Vote for me and I'll give
you..."tit for no tat" (:-)

This slide toward the socialist end of the spectrum is seems to be
simply the logical results of the democratic form of government.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

On Sun, 15 May 2022 08:34:00 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich

No Tommy, I didn't say that. And yes there is a difference, albeit
small in come cases, between socialism and communism, although
admittedly things blur in usage. But basically communism controls the
entire economy, N. Vietnam and China, in the old days, are examples.

Socialism, as the perhaps more modern usage, is the government taking
care of the population while allowing some, perhaps all, businesses to
be owned and managed outside the government. (sort of in the direction
the U.S. is headed)

N. Korea and (I believe) Cuba are pure Communist governments while the
Scandinavian countries and modern China (to some extent) are examples
of the modern form of Socialism. In these terms socialism if a far
more efficient system then communism while still providing the same
advantages.

Your description of the Russians using "Communism" because the name
"socialist" was already taken is illogical to the point that it is
just plain silly.

After the Russian revolution of 1917 two political parties formed, the
Bolsheviks were a far-left party, led by Vladimir Lenin and the
Mensheviks. Mensheviks is a Russian word meaning "minority"while
Bolshevik means majority. The two words were used in reference to
members of the Russian Congress. In November 1917, Bolsheviks
overthrowing the Provisional Government became the only ruling party
in the subsequent Soviet Russia.

And as the winning party could, and did, just as they damn pleased
including naming things as they pleased.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[AMuzi]

One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.

[John B.]

Well... I was replying to Tommy and I thought that he might be able to
manage a discussion with two "forces", this the referent to the
Mensheviks and Bolsheviks, rather then the host of minority parties
all trying to get a place in the sun.

But direct Governmental control of industries when referring to Nazi
Germany, for example isn't exactly correct as over all the government
took the position that State ownership was to be avoided unless it was
absolutely necessary... Thus one of the main factors of the Nazi
government efforts to aid German recovery was to privatize a great
many industries. But it was more complex then that as the German
Government also passed laws giving it the right to form "cartels" and
to some extent control them.

Take for example, the German aircraft industry, certainly encouraged
by the government but directly managed internally. Or the V-1 which, I
believe wax developed by a group of three companies.

But my point was largely to educate Tommy a bit of the meanings of the
words, "leftists", "Socialists" and "Communists" which he tosses about
as symbols of defamation.

And, well in my view, the U.S with it's multiple welfare schemes is
sliding toward socialism, in the sense of the government taking care
of the population, like a loving mother.

However, that seems the direction all democracies are heading. As in
"Vote for me and I will give you ..."

--
Cheers,

John B.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

I think you have to modify your "population" for the US. Some of the population, the select chosen ones, are taken care of in a socialist manner. But its called capitalism to dress it up. Not socialism. And then there are other sections of the population that are not taken care of. They are harangued, castigated, and denigrated. Is it really socialism if you only take care of a select few and openly harm the others?

[John B.]

No, I believe that you've got it wrong. In the U.S. you have a sort of
modified capitalist system... We gonna do it but we gotta do it the
way the gomment say.

And you have a sort of modified socialism in that something like 56
million people receive some sort of welfare from the government. Then
add in subsidies (even the oil industry gets subsidies) and various
other freebees.

Example... when I was a young man my father, who worked in the Post
Office, could afford to send his kids, my brother and I, to collage.
No loans, no borrowing money from relatives, just a check every month
for the tuition and so on. Today I read about all the government
collage loans and the difficulties young people have in repaying them.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[Lou Holtman]

On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:59:33 AM UTC+2, John B. wrote:

>
> Example... when I was a young man my father, who worked in the Post
> Office, could afford to send his kids, my brother and I, to collage.
> No loans, no borrowing money from relatives, just a check every month
> for the tuition and so on. Today I read about all the government
> collage loans and the difficulties young people have in repaying them.
> --
> Cheers,

And why is this?

Lou

[Rolf Mantel]

> And why is this?

A typical "delay feedback loop":

1) Studies find out that people with a college degree earn significantly
more money during their lifetime
2) More people are willing to pay to go to college
3) colleges increase their tuition fees massively
4)more college graduates one the market reduce the wage gap between
college graduates and non-graduates

Step 3 mostly happend during the 1990's, step 4 is still ongoing

In Germany, standard University education is paid for by the govermnent,
students only have to take out loans (or jobs) for their cost of living.

[Lou Holtman]

My question was about why a family with one full time paid job can't support a family anymore.

Lou

[funkma...@hotmail.com]

On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:

> >
> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.

yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to nationalize US private industries being announced daily <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any attempts to take over a private business, right?

[John B.]

I suggest it is the level of luxury that one sees as normal. People
used to walk, for example. From the age of 6 I walked about a mile to
school, and yes, there was a school bus... for those that lived more
then a mile from the school.

Today? Walk? A whole mile? "You've got to be kidding".

The average US family has 2.5 TV's and about a third have more then 4
https://www.sidmartinbio.org/how-many-tvs-does-the-average-house-have/

Cars? The average seems to be 1.8 per family and 35 percent of
American households own three cars or more.

and so on and on and on.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[AMuzi]

'capitalism' is a pejorative term invented by Karl Marx.

Among his many errors, Marx' fixation on capital ignored
the other more significant input which is human ingenuity
and incentive for continued improvement in all ventures. The
best examples are the poverty where freedom and incentive
are lacking.

A more descriptive term is 'free market' where liberty,
property rights, especially intellectual property, and
risk/reward are unfettered.

That does _not_ describe my country at all. We're now some
socialist declining mess, a 'directed economy' as the
Planners claim, with more regulation and so less hope year
over year.

[AMuzi]

On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>
>>>
>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>
> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to nationalize US private industries being announced daily <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any attempts to take over a private business, right?
>
>

The large political parties both have deep corruption and
that's not secret. Nor news.

Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
and less prosperity is not getting better:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/

[Radey Shouman]

In the USA the federal government guarantees loans made by commercial
banks to students for tuition and other expenses. These debts cannot be
discharged in bankruptcy. US universities expect to get a full
statement of family finances before making any offers of financial
assistance. In other words they know exactly how much money you have
when they decide how much to charge you -- it's a differential pricing
wet dream.

[Frank Krygowski]

I agree with John on this. Our family's standard of living is quite a
bit different than, say, our immediate neighbors'. ("What? You don't
have a dishwasher? A 48" TV? A zero turn lawn mower? You don't do a
Caribbean cruise every year? You don't carry a huge credit card balance?")

But our lifestyle is much more luxurious than that of my parents, and
incredibly more luxurious than my grandparents'.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[Frank Krygowski]

And as I've mentioned before, things have changed markedly at
universities. When I attended, there were not hundreds of exercise
machines, multiple sports fields, a bunch of on-campus restaurants
besides the dozen independent ones surrounding campus, the landscaping
was far less elaborate with no fountains or sculptures, etc. But today
colleges are competing heavily for students, and the administration's
and trustees' thoughts are that these amenities increase enrollment.
(State subsidy is based heavily on enrollment.)

More important, back then the size of the administration was tiny
compared to today's. I believe administration expenses have soared
faster than any other aspect of the university budget. When I began
teaching at the local university 40-odd years ago, the Provost's Office
was one man plus one secretary. Now it's an entire complex with
something like ten people plus part-time student assistants. Oh, and the
university president's wife is now supplied with a personal shopper. :-/

--
- Frank Krygowski

[Frank Krygowski]

On 5/17/2022 10:11 AM, AMuzi wrote:
>
> 'capitalism' is a pejorative term invented by Karl Marx.
>
>  Among his many errors, Marx' fixation on capital ignored the other
> more significant input which is human ingenuity and incentive for
> continued improvement in all ventures. The best examples are the poverty
> where freedom and incentive are lacking.
>
> A more descriptive term is 'free market' where liberty, property rights,
> especially intellectual property, and risk/reward are unfettered.
>
> That does _not_ describe my country at all. We're now some socialist
> declining mess, a 'directed economy' as the Planners claim, with more
> regulation and so less hope year over year.

Are there countries whose economic system you like? What are they? What
are the differences with ours?


--
- Frank Krygowski

[sms]

Collages are not expensive. For John's father to have sent his children
to college would have been pretty costly.

[Lou Holtman]

It would be the 'leave me alone' economy I think. Everyone should take care of himself.

Lou

[AMuzi]

+1

[Jeff Liebermann]

That sounds like an anarchist economy. I vote for Somalia as an
example of a laissez faire economic system:

"Somalia: Counting the cost of anarchy"
<https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12285365>

"Anarcho-capitalism"
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarcho-capitalism>

Some (historical) examples:
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarcho-capitalism#Historical_precedents>
Bring back the wild west (USA)?

Some links to variations on the anarchist theme:
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarcho-capitalism#See_also>

--
Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

[Tom Kunich]

Teachers continually demand increasing wages and the college owners continually want increasing profits. How can you argue with that except for students to no longer select that school to attend? Suddenly teachers are willing to accept less and owners will make less profit margin. This is the way that the Free Enterprise system is supposed to work. But it cannot work properly if everyone believes that the college bills are going to be paid off by me.

[Tom Kunich]

These studies are outdated. I without a doubt would have made a great deal more money and better retirement benefits had I remained working as a technician for the Bay Area Rapid Transit district or as a Telephone Installation Technician as partner in a firm.

Carpenters, Plumbers and concrete workers if they work for solid companies that can keep them working and making reasonable overtime will ALL earn higher wages than MOST college educations. Russell probably has first hand knowledge of this if he owns a home and has to have normal maintenance work completed. I had crown molding installed in ONE room by a carpenter who completed the world in under 4 hours for $2,200. He did a good job and I can't complain. I had to have my sewer pipe replaced out into the street and it took a good reliable company 4 hours and that was $8,500. These were well before the Biden inflation.

I made up to a quarter million a year with a high school diploma and a two year city college. Neither of these helped my job. But I was also known as a problem solver and as managers moved around they knew they could call on me to fix their problems

[AMuzi]

You can carp about academic staff salaries/benefits. And
people do.
But the massive expense increases are in the
administrative/construction/facilities budgets.

[Frank Krygowski]

"Rothbard's anarcho-capitalist society would operate under a mutually
agreed-upon 'legal code which would be generally accepted, and which the
courts would pledge themselves to follow' "

Sounds lovely. We should be able to set that up by next week, worldwide.


--
- Frank Krygowski

[Frank Krygowski]

Exactly. And colleges and universities are ever more reliant on
exploitation of part-time or adjunct faculty. Those people are paid
pitifully low wages and typically have no contract rights, no benefits.
I know, because part of my job was finding and hiring qualified
engineers (_real_ engineers; Tom wouldn't qualify) to teach courses.

I was lucky to have a few truly brilliant guys who did that for the
pleasure of passing on their knowledge and experience, out of love for
our program. Still, I felt ashamed of the pittance I could offer them.

BTW, when I was totally done teaching, contract completely up, I was
asked to continue as a part-timer. I politely refused. I said it would
be hypocritical for me to work for that pittance, after so many years of
lobbying for better part-timer wages.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[Frank Krygowski]

How odd. Tom told us he had a GED instead of a high school diploma, and
bragged about walking away from that two year college because he knew
more than the teachers. How stories change!

There are some craftsmen like finish carpenters, welders, etc. who do
very well, most often by working all the overtime they can possibly fit
in their lives. But data, in contrast with anecdotes, indicate that on
average, college degrees do pay off monetarily (not to mention in other
ways).
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2011/05/15/chapter-5-the-monetary-value-of-a-college-education/

Of course, if you're interested in a good financial return, it pays to
carefully choose both the college and the major. Worst case is probably
something like an Art History or Peace Studies degree from a major Ivy
League school - expensive, and little market for whatever specialized
skills one learns. Best choice is probably an engineering degree from a
good state school.
https://bigeconomics.org/the-college-majors-that-pay-off-and-those-that-dont/

I haven't been able to find any decent data on high school dropouts who
are smarter than everyone else in the world. Odd, that.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[John B.]

Yup,
In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
work on these proposed lease sales."
and
The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
as the reason for scrapping the sales.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
--
Cheers,

John B.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

Lou, you live in the Netherlands? That country with billions of dollars of dikes and other water management systems. To prevent half or more of the country from being a swamp, lake, flooded, below sea level. Who did all of these projects? Individuals? Each landowner by himself? I doubt it. I believe the Government did everything. Yes the people paid for it eventually over time. But the government did the projects collectively for everyone to benefit. Socialism at its finest. Help your neighbor, everyone, to benefit all. No "alone", no "himself" to it.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

Tommy, you must be confusing Trump University with a real college or university. Publicly sponsored schools are not free enterprise institutions. They are not profit and loss entities. They are very socialistic. Just like free public education for kids is too. They are established for the greater achievement, benefit of all society. People without children are still required to pay taxes to support elementary schools in their town. The higher ups, society, have decided that is acceptable because everyone overall will be better with educated people. All of society will benefit if this cost is paid. Even taking money from those who do not receive a direct benefit.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

???????
So now Tommy has a high school diploma and a community college degree?

Regarding me owning a home. I am very adept at carpentry, plumbing, and electrical work. I have renovated a few houses over the decades. So I usually do not pay people to do my work. I have hired plumbers for a couple special jobs over the years. Costs were reasonable.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land, that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common. But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets, so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable. No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.

https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/

[John B.]

How things change... it was barely a year ago and Tommy was bragging
about all the money he made as a bloke without a high school diploma.
And now, Low and Behold! he suddenly has both a diploma AND two years
of collage.

It is written that the Israelites marched around the city of Jericho
blowing horns and the walls fell down, and here we have Tommy "blowing
his horn" on the Internet and he now has not only a high school
diploma but a collage degree too.

The age of miracles is not over.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

There was a sort of myth or fable about Airman Jones and the firing
range.

The troops go to the range and are shooting and Jones runs out of
ammunition, so he tells the Sergeant and the Sergeant tells him to
"run, get some more". So Jones hustles off and when he gets back his
buddy calls out, "I'm out of ammunition" and since Jones is already up
the Sergeant tells Jones to make another trip. But Jones complains
that the ammunition is heavy and he can't carry more, so the Sergeant
says, "take your buddy to help". And so on. And on.

Ultimately it is one man firing and the rest of the troops carrying
ammo (:-)

The story is, of course, how a simple operation grows into a monster
project.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

The Browning M1919 machine gun had a crew of 5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1919_Browning_machine_gun
"As a company support weapon, the M1919 required a five-man crew: the squad leader; the gunner (who fired the gun and when advancing carried the tripod and box of ammunition); the assistant gunner (who helped feed the gun and carried it, and a box of spare parts and tools); two ammunition carriers."

[John B.]

But what is "luxury"?

From memory, my family, Mother, Father, two boys" did things together
certainly until I left for collage. Well, yes, my parents did leave me
and my brother with my grandparents once, for a week, when they
attended the World's Fair in New York - an unmovable long trip - but
basically that was it.

Yes, my mother washed dishes, did laundry, and the shopping, but my
father worked 7 days a week.

My memory, for whatever that is worth, was that I was the member of a
family and I was quite contented.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
$10/bbl.

I remember in Indonesia, leases usually contained a requirement to
drill, usually three, exploration wells and one company we worked for
had drilled the required exploration wells and hit oil but were
abandoning the project. When I asked them why? They said, "well, it's
heavy oil and not worth producing now but when the price goes up it
will still be there".
--
Cheers,

John B.

[Lou Holtman]

Op woensdag 18 mei 2022 om 02:02:10 UTC+2 schreef russell...@yahoo.com:

I was answering Franks question what economy/government Mr. Muzi would prefer.
I was guessing based on Andrewks posts here that everything the government does is inefficient and corrupt and we have to leave most things to the privat sector exept the military. That is not my idea.

Lou

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

But John you live in Thailand now. And traveled all over southeast Asia working or military. Is that more luxurious than your parents or grandparents? Traveling the world? Living in a foreign land? And you have mentioned on this forum that your wife has a maid/servant lady come in a few times a week or something. Did your parents or grandparents have a maid? Is that luxury? Now I realize for middle income Thai people, that may be just common practice and everyone does it. But for the USA that would be considered luxury. A maid!!!!!!!

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

OK. I misread your post. You were answering Frank's question of Andy with what he might/would say. Not answering for yourself and the Netherlands. For Andy my response would be something like this. You are in Madison Wisconsin. Your bike shop. Madison is a metropolis because the government funded, provided, University of Wisconsin is there. Otherwise, Madison would be a nothing town. So your bike shop owes all of its existence to government provided services. Something like that. Although I may be off a bit with my analogy. Everyone is interconnected whether we want to be or not.

[John B.]

My question, above, was "what is luxury?"

Is it that you don't have to walk all the way down the street to the
7-Eleven? My Goodness, that must be, Oh... 200 yards?

Or, Yes sir, we got a 48 incher in the bedroom (but only 24" in the
toilet.)

Or, "Well the wife and I've been married for 20 years now, the kids
are doing well in school, the house is paid for, we paid cash for the
car and..."

As for the maid (:-) Well, my wife is 77 years old, so yes, I agreed
that she could have a helper... who comes in half a day several times
a week and does the"heavy lifting", while my wife still does the
cooking. I'm probably spoiling the Old Girl and in mitigation I can
only say that, "It's only been for the last two years".

And, Oh Yes, the Grand Kids are doing well in school (:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

[funkma...@hotmail.com]

Right, I could have sworn that a while back he said he got a 4-year liberal arts degree at some bay area college (don't recall if it was a community college or a small private school) by going nights while working full time, paid for by the company he worked for at the time - though he resume show he was was only employed by them for 4 years.

Of course that would mean he went to school full time while working full time. I guess that's doable, but tommy?

[funkma...@hotmail.com]

On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 3:16:02 PM UTC-4, cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 2:12:56 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
> > Am 17.05.2022 um 10:32 schrieb Lou Holtman:
> > > On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:59:33 AM UTC+2, John B. wrote:
> > >
> > >>
> > >> Example... when I was a young man my father, who worked in the Post
> > >> Office, could afford to send his kids, my brother and I, to collage.
> > >> No loans, no borrowing money from relatives, just a check every month
> > >> for the tuition and so on. Today I read about all the government
> > >> collage loans and the difficulties young people have in repaying them.
> > >
> > > And why is this?
> >
> > A typical "delay feedback loop":
> >
> > 1) Studies find out that people with a college degree earn significantly
> > more money during their lifetime
> > 2) More people are willing to pay to go to college
> > 3) colleges increase their tuition fees massively
> > 4)more college graduates one the market reduce the wage gap between
> > college graduates and non-graduates
> >
> > Step 3 mostly happend during the 1990's, step 4 is still ongoing
> >
> > In Germany, standard University education is paid for by the govermnent,
> > students only have to take out loans (or jobs) for their cost of living.
> These studies are outdated. I without a doubt would have made a great deal more money and better retirement benefits had I remained working as a technician for the Bay Area Rapid Transit district or as a Telephone Installation Technician as partner in a firm.
>
> Carpenters, Plumbers and concrete workers if they work for solid companies that can keep them working and making reasonable overtime will ALL earn higher wages than MOST college educations. Russell probably has first hand knowledge of this if he owns a home and has to have normal maintenance work completed. I had crown molding installed in ONE room by a carpenter who completed the world in under 4 hours for $2,200. He did a good job and I can't complain. I had to have my sewer pipe replaced out into the street and it took a good reliable company 4 hours and that was $8,500. These were well before the Biden inflation.

"I got bored with the slime on RBT burnishing their self-esteem through reacting to tech input according to the poster’s political beliefs." - andre jute

>
> I made up to a quarter million a year with a high school diploma and a two year city college. Neither of these helped my job. But I was also known as a problem solver and as managers moved around they knew they could call on me to fix their problems

It would take a lot more than an associates degree to help your career when you're an asshole to everyone you meet. It's a bit late since you're already retired, but just consider that constructive criticism.

[AMuzi]

I'm not completely rigid but my usual question, 'name
something the government does efficiently and well' gets
that thousand-mile stare...

[AMuzi]

We are not. It's been nine years now.

[Frank Krygowski]

I suspect if given dozens of examples, you would dispute that any were
done efficiently, or done well.

But FWIW, we had new friends visiting in our backyard last night. A
significant amount of conversation was on the theme of how nice it is to
live here. Much of that praise was due to government functions done
either very well, or at least well enough.

In any case, I like having paved roads. I like having water at the tap
and not having to maintain the well (our house actually has a disused
well). I'm glad we have a police force. I'm glad I don't have to deal
with a septic system. I like national parks, state parks, township parks
and our village's forest preserve. I'm glad the local river has been
cleaned of pollution. I like that there are agencies ensuring safety of
food, water and medications. I'm happy with my medical coverage, which
as I understand it is a blend of medicare and insurance negotiated by my
state's teacher retirement system.

Oh, and speaking of the latter: My dealings with insurance companies
tells me that giving them, or any other private company, total power
over medical care would be a disaster for most individuals.

(But I admit, contractors who design and build massive new insurance
company headquarters would probably do even better than they are now.
And we shouldn't forget the yacht manufacturers whose customers are
insurance CEOs.)


--
- Frank Krygowski

[Radey Shouman]

What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...

[Radey Shouman]

Frank Krygowski <frkr...@sbcglobal.net> writes:

> On 5/17/2022 10:35 AM, Radey Shouman wrote:
>> Rolf Mantel <ne...@hartig-mantel.de> writes:
>>

>>> Am 17.05.2022 um 10:32 schrieb Lou Holtman:
>>>> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:59:33 AM UTC+2, John B. wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Example... when I was a young man my father, who worked in the Post
>>>>> Office, could afford to send his kids, my brother and I, to collage.
>>>>> No loans, no borrowing money from relatives, just a check every month
>>>>> for the tuition and so on. Today I read about all the government
>>>>> collage loans and the difficulties young people have in repaying them.
>>>>
>>>> And why is this?
>>>
>>> A typical "delay feedback loop":
>>>
>>> 1) Studies find out that people with a college degree earn
>>> significantly more money during their lifetime
>>> 2) More people are willing to pay to go to college
>>> 3) colleges increase their tuition fees massively
>>> 4)more college graduates one the market reduce the wage gap between
>>> college graduates and non-graduates
>>>
>>> Step 3 mostly happend during the 1990's, step 4 is still ongoing
>>>
>>> In Germany, standard University education is paid for by the
>>> govermnent, students only have to take out loans (or jobs) for their
>>> cost of living.

>> In the USA the federal government guarantees loans made by
>> commercial
>> banks to students for tuition and other expenses. These debts cannot be
>> discharged in bankruptcy. US universities expect to get a full
>> statement of family finances before making any offers of financial
>> assistance. In other words they know exactly how much money you have
>> when they decide how much to charge you -- it's a differential pricing
>> wet dream.
>
> And as I've mentioned before, things have changed markedly at
> universities. When I attended, there were not hundreds of exercise
> machines, multiple sports fields, a bunch of on-campus restaurants
> besides the dozen independent ones surrounding campus, the landscaping
> was far less elaborate with no fountains or sculptures, etc. But today
> colleges are competing heavily for students, and the administration's
> and trustees' thoughts are that these amenities increase
> enrollment. (State subsidy is based heavily on enrollment.)
>
> More important, back then the size of the administration was tiny
> compared to today's. I believe administration expenses have soared
> faster than any other aspect of the university budget. When I began
> teaching at the local university 40-odd years ago, the Provost's
> Office was one man plus one secretary. Now it's an entire complex with
> something like ten people plus part-time student assistants. Oh, and
> the university president's wife is now supplied with a personal
> shopper. :-/

This. When I was a student (at a state university), it was quite possible
to finance an education by part-time work. No longer.

Not to mention all the expensive but butt-ugly buildings. Universities
have become rapacious consumers of real estate.

[Radey Shouman]

Tom Kunich <cycl...@gmail.com> writes:

> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 1:32:10 AM UTC-7, Lou Holtman wrote:

>> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:59:33 AM UTC+2, John B. wrote:
>>
>> >
>> > Example... when I was a young man my father, who worked in the Post
>> > Office, could afford to send his kids, my brother and I, to collage.
>> > No loans, no borrowing money from relatives, just a check every month
>> > for the tuition and so on. Today I read about all the government
>> > collage loans and the difficulties young people have in repaying them.

>> > --
>> > Cheers,
>> And why is this?
>
> Teachers continually demand increasing wages and the college owners
> continually want increasing profits. How can you argue with that
> except for students to no longer select that school to attend?
> Suddenly teachers are willing to accept less and owners will make less
> profit margin. This is the way that the Free Enterprise system is
> supposed to work. But it cannot work properly if everyone believes
> that the college bills are going to be paid off by me.

Unfortunately many of the teachers (the adjunct faculty) are hired on a
semester contract basis and paid poverty level wages. Sometimes they're
asked to teach just for the honor of having the experience. In
technical fields faculty are expected to bring in research grant money,
mostly from the federal government. Back when I was gradually deciding
not to be in gradual school some of my classmates searching for work
found that institutions expected them to pay for their own salaries out
of grant money immediately.

[Frank Krygowski]

Yep. I did that.


--
- Frank Krygowski

[AMuzi]

Real estate is cheap compared to
administrative/support/maintenance/construction payroll.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from the sailing school. With a degree I guess.

[John B.]

But, do you want true efficiency?

The collection of exactly the amount of taxes owed, for example? Years
ago I remember H&R Block advising clients to claim the maximum for
charities, as "they never check". Technically that can be viewed as
defrauding the Government and, I believe Federal fraud charges can
lead to 10 years or more in federal prison.

The rigidly enforcing of highway speed laws? 2 MPH over the limit and
Bingo! $300 fine Sir! Or "run a stop sign" and it's $50 the first
time.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
to recover drilling and development costs.

Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.


--
Cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

Well... Tommy has done a great many weird and wonderful things. If you
don't believe it, why just ask him (:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

[sms]

On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:

<snip>

> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
> $10/bbl.

"In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely exceeded
$10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs were $5.40
a barrel."

There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to $100/bbl
that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the oil that
they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case because
they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not buying oil on
the world market.

If the Saudi's crashed the price of oil it would be a big problem for
both Russian and U.S. oil companies. OTOH, by keeping the price high,
they are encouraging the move to electric vehicles which is bad for them
in the long term.

[John B.]

On Wed, 18 May 2022 19:44:05 -0700, sms <scharf...@geemail.com>
wrote:

>On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>
><snip>
>
>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>> $10/bbl.
>
>"In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely exceeded
>$10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs were $5.40
>a barrel."
>
>There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to $100/bbl
>that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the oil that
>they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case because
>they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not buying oil on
>the world market.

Spot prices for oil futures is a rather over simplification of the oil
market. Oil companies, in most cases, do produce the crude that their
refineries process into gasoline, and various other substances, but in
some instances they will sell their oil and buy other oil because of
processing requirements. A plant that produced asphalt, for instance,
would not want West Texas Light, or Brent Crude oil.

>If the Saudi's crashed the price of oil it would be a big problem for
>both Russian and U.S. oil companies. OTOH, by keeping the price high,
>they are encouraging the move to electric vehicles which is bad for them
>in the long term.

--
Cheers,

John B.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:44:10 PM UTC-5, sms wrote:
> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>
> <snip>
> > I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
> > but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
> > straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
> > $10/bbl.
> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely exceeded
> $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs were $5.40
> a barrel."
>
> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to $100/bbl
> that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the oil that
> they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case because
> they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not buying oil on
> the world market.

There has been a separation of the oil production companies and the refiners and the retail gasoline sellers for a long time now. Some do all three operations. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, British Petroleum, Conoco Phillips, Shell, Marathon are examples. But many oil producers have nothing at all to do with refining or selling retail gasoline. Occidental Petroleum, Apache, Devon, and many others. And there are many refining only companies. Nothing to do with the oil production or retail selling. Can't think of any off the top of my head though. And there are other companies that are only involved with the transportation of oil products. Energy Transfer and Enterprise Partners Distribution are two I know of. And of course there are many many companies that only sell the retail gasoline. Casey's, Quik Trip, 7-11 are examples. Just look at all the convenience stores and gas stations on your drives or rides. Many, not all, have nothing to do with oil production or refining or transporting. They just sell it.

Except for the vertically integrated companies, everyone is buying it from the next lower rung of the ladder. And even with integrated companies, they also mix in other's oil or refined products. Whatever results in the best profit. Crude oil is $110 barrel right now. Retail USA gasoline is $4.57 average. Oil barrel is 42 gallons. So raw price is $2.62 gallon for the oil. $1.92 profit. Except have to add transport fees and refining costs. Not sure what those costs are. But all that is left is profit. Except for the cost per barrel to produce the oil. John says $50/barrel for shale. That is $1.19/barrel. And the cost to pay the retailers for their labor and equipment. $1.92 minus $1.19 minus refining cost minus transporting/piping cost minus retail convenience store cost and labor = profit!!!!!!!!

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Wed, 18 May 2022 17:00:59 -0700 (PDT), "russell...@yahoo.com"
<ritzann...@gmail.com> wrote:

>Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from the sailing school. With a degree I guess.

He claimed to have a degree in navigation from California Maritime
Academy, now called CSU Maritime Academy.
<https://www.csum.edu>
The first problems were:
- They didn't offer a degree in navigation.
- it's basically a military academy with uniforms.
- living on campus is required.
- Tom properly located the school in Valejo CA but then claimed that
Valejo is in Marin County when it really is in Solano County.

He also claimed to have audited a physics class at UC Berkeley:
<https://groups.google.com/g/rec.bicycles.tech/c/csB3WzGgrZQ/m/h-RoBpUuBQAJ>
>and that after almost the entire hour of the class the instructor
>hadn't uttered one single word of physics but had recited socialist
>propaganda. So I told him off and walked out.

and attended Cabot College to obtain a BA in something:
<https://groups.google.com/g/rec.bicycles.tech/c/csB3WzGgrZQ/m/oQdgjRuSBgAJ>
Cabot College appears in an early version of Tom's resume:
<https://groups.google.com/g/rec.bicycles.tech/c/_Y1MbXuzvNo/m/o6omSxsfAgAJ>
Education
general education - Degree in navigation
Tality requested I get a BA so that they could
promote me to department manager
Chabot College - Hayward, CA


--
Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

[sms]

On 5/18/2022 9:49 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

<snip>

> and attended Cabot College to obtain a BA in something:
> <https://groups.google.com/g/rec.bicycles.tech/c/csB3WzGgrZQ/m/oQdgjRuSBgAJ>
> Cabot College appears in an early version of Tom's resume:
> <https://groups.google.com/g/rec.bicycles.tech/c/_Y1MbXuzvNo/m/o6omSxsfAgAJ>
> Education
> general education - Degree in navigation
> Tality requested I get a BA so that they could
> promote me to department manager
> Chabot College - Hayward, CA

Chabot does not offer bachelor's degrees.

[AMuzi]

That's right, errors happen. But I know oil geologists and
generally they're accurate enough overall to justify their
salaries with a profit to the company.

[AMuzi]

As discussed here previously, more than once, wellhead price
in The Kingdom is not the same as delivered price at a
refinery in Louisiana.

[AMuzi]

Right. Moreover, the amount of gasoline refined from one
barrel of crude is much less than 42 gallons and refinery
services are an added expense.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:50:00 PM UTC-5, jeff.li...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Wed, 18 May 2022 17:00:59 -0700 (PDT), "russell...@yahoo.com"
> <ritzann...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from the sailing school. With a degree I guess.
> He claimed to have a degree in navigation from California Maritime
> Academy, now called CSU Maritime Academy.
> <https://www.csum.edu>
> The first problems were:
> - They didn't offer a degree in navigation.
> - it's basically a military academy with uniforms.
> - living on campus is required.
> - Tom properly located the school in Valejo CA but then claimed that
> Valejo is in Marin County when it really is in Solano County.
>

That's it. I knew my memory was working fairly well. Tommy was talking about his yacht club and this came up. I can't remember why Tommy was talking about his yacht club though. I think it was due to where the Navy had bases in the bay area.

[John B.]

Well, I read that Brent Crude is selling for $107.70/bbl as of
19/05/22-05:30, and you get something like 19 - 20 gallons of gasoline
from one barrel (:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Wed, 18 May 2022 22:16:46 -0700 (PDT), "russell...@yahoo.com"
<ritzann...@gmail.com> wrote:

>That's it. I knew my memory was working fairly well. Tommy was talking about his yacht club and this came up. I can't remember why Tommy was talking about his yacht club though. I think it was due to where the Navy had bases in the bay area.

You had it right. He claimed to be a life member of the Aeolian Yacht
Club:
<http://www.aeolianyc.org>
The problem is that the Aeolian YC doesn't offer life memberships.
<http://www.aeolianyc.org/schedule-of-fees-and-charges.html>

[John B.]

I was around them for a lot of years and they do tend to use a lot of
"if's" and "assuming that" in their reports (:-) Especially when
evaluating a new location.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[AMuzi]

So do doctors. And bicycle mechanics. And attorneys. An
adult with some expertise and imperfect information should
note uncertainty of outcome.

[Frank Krygowski]

True. Our university's trustees once, long ago, had a plan to expand the
campus to the east, into what was an old, traditionally Italian inner
city neighborhood. The university began buying and razing house after
house. Out of hundreds, now only a dozen or so are still standing. (I
had a friend who was one of the holdouts, until he died.)

Then the trustees changed their mind. Campus expanded north instead. The
intimate, pleasant old neighborhood is gone and wasted. There's one ball
field, a couple parking lots and lots of empty lots punctuated by a few
lonely houses.

> Real estate is cheap compared to
> administrative/support/maintenance/construction payroll.

As I understand it, new buildings are funded almost entirely by the
state, if officials believe the trustees sales pitch. Those funds don't
pass through the university budget. It seems to be a case of "Well,
that's a different pot of money, so it doesn't count."

--
- Frank Krygowski

[Radey Shouman]

Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
of the well.

[Radey Shouman]

That's actually a very low bar, given the size of revenue streams
involved. If they do any good at all they can probably justify their
salaries. On the other hand, it's possible to do harm ...

Producing oil once a well is drilled is also a tricky problem, one has
to predict multi-phase (oil, water, gas) flow through porous rocks,
often blocked by non-porous rocks, with properties and geometry that
have to remotely estimated. The market in oil also has to be
considered, since it's not practical to store large amounts except in
the ground.

[Radey Shouman]

sms <scharf...@geemail.com> writes:

> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>
> <snip>
>
>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>> $10/bbl.
>
> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely
> exceeded $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs
> were $5.40 a barrel."
>
> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to
> $100/bbl that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the
> oil that they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case
> because they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not
> buying oil on the world market.

If they could sell that oil at $100/bbl, then that is their opportunity
cost, and what the refinery operation should be considered to pay,
regardless of whether it's actually paid to an outside firm.

> If the Saudi's crashed the price of oil it would be a big problem for
> both Russian and U.S. oil companies. OTOH, by keeping the price high,
> they are encouraging the move to electric vehicles which is bad for
> them in the long term.
>

--

[funkma...@hotmail.com]

No, that's yet another case of him writing about his fantasy life. I was more amused that he claimed to have received a BA going nights in less than 4 years

[John B.]

On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:55:44 -0400, Radey Shouman
<sho...@comcast.net> wrote:

>sms <scharf...@geemail.com> writes:
>
>> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>>
>> <snip>
>>
>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>> $10/bbl.
>>
>> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely
>> exceeded $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs
>> were $5.40 a barrel."
>>
>> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to
>> $100/bbl that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the
>> oil that they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case
>> because they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not
>> buying oil on the world market.
>
>If they could sell that oil at $100/bbl, then that is their opportunity
>cost, and what the refinery operation should be considered to pay,
>regardless of whether it's actually paid to an outside firm.
>

Theoretically, but the major "oil" companies are in the business of
selling a refined product, not the raw materials. If every barrel of
crude oil sucked out of the ground were to placed on the market the
price would undoubtedly tumble.

Which puts Saudi, who essentially does sell it's raw product very much
in the driver's seat when it comes to oil prices.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:45:43 -0400, Radey Shouman

Well, yes... except for the word "design". Substitute "Expected", or
even "Hoped for" :-).

--
Cheers,

John B.

[Radey Shouman]

The price of crude might tumble, but the price of finished products
would rise. If you're running an operation that's a part of a
vertically integrated corporation, you normally have to keep accounts
for your operation internally. Transfer prices from one unit of the
corporation to another may be somewhat theoretical, but in a well run
operation they're not crazy.

> Which puts Saudi, who essentially does sell it's raw product very much
> in the driver's seat when it comes to oil prices.

They would be better off selling finished products, but they don't have
the workforce and infrastructure to make that happen.

[Radey Shouman]

"Minimum expected" is what "design" means. If your management is reasonably
conservative it's quite a bit less than what they hope for. And of
course everything has to be brough to net present value using an assumed
interest rate, which is also uncertain.

[AMuzi]

>>>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time

+1
All of it is rigor, not magic. The skill is making decisions
with imperfect information.

[John B.]

On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:34:21 -0400, Radey Shouman

My experience, as a contractor to major oil companies operating in
Indonesia, was that they were very knowledgeable about costs. I
remember talking to a Drilling Manager about the feasibility of
drilling on a rather remote lease in Western New Guinea. In the
conversation he said something like, "Of course to be profitable in
that area they would have to be 1,000 bbl a day wells".

>They would be better off selling finished products, but they don't have
>the workforce and infrastructure to make that happen.

Perhaps. But not necessarily true. I remember a period when Indonesia,
producing some 1.5 million bbl oil per day, found it cheaper to import
kerosene from Singapore.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[AMuzi]

And qualitative differences too. Not that long ago,
Venezuelan crude was refined in Aruba for the US fuel market
as that type of oil wasn't compatible to US Gulf refineries.

[John B.]

On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:38:50 -0400, Radey Shouman

Not necessarily. It is very much a matter of semantics.

Oil Wells are "designed" largely based on tested flow rates. i.e, if a
well flows at, well say, 10,000 bbl/day, in an open hole test the one
doesn't size downhole components for a 100bbl/day well.

As for a "field" then on a "do it or don't" decision is made. I worked
on one project in Western New Guinea where three exploration wells
were drilled over a large area and oil was found, but reservoir
pressure was almost nonexistent and the lease was abandoned.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[John B.]

That is certainly true in more then one case. I believe that when the
Alaskan pipeline was finally finished and oil was being shipped that a
certain amount was being sold to Japan and foreign oil imported. There
was some sort of big To-Do about it and it turned out that some W.
Coast refineries weren't able to handle the heavier Alaskan crude and
imported lighter foreign oil.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[Radey Shouman]

That's why I asked about what your $/bbl figure meant. It requires
knowing, or estimating, how much a well will flow before it is drilled.
I guess maybe you mean that multiple wells drilled in the same field may
be expected to flow about the same amount, but I'm not sure.

[John B.]

On Thu, 19 May 2022 21:57:32 -0400, Radey Shouman

The way it works is that first you run seismic test on the area. Which
will tell you whether there is any hope of there being oil. There are
other tests, side scan radar, etc, but I think seismic is still the
mainstay.

If there is a sufficiently large "structure" shown which "might" hold
oil then the decision of whether to drill exploration wells, or not,
is made. Where is the field? How hard is to get to? If we do hit oil
then what?
Essentially, how much will it cost and how much can we make?

If the decision is to go ahead then a number of test wells are
drilled. In Indonesia, in my time, usually three.

Depending what was found, both quality and quantity, the decision to
establish a "field", or not, is made.

Generally, wells drilled in the same structure will flow about the
same for about the same length of time But... often the "structure is
a "dome" so wells drilled around the periphery will probably not have
as long life as wells drilled near the apex of the dome.

There are all kinds of other problems, water, structure permeability,
and so on, but the above is pretty much the major points in the Oil
Business.

--
Cheers,

John B.

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!! BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!! Sounds a little bit foo foo to me. Tommy the artist. Drawing his delicate little swirls with brightly colored ink on the soft cloth. Or reading Elizabethan Shakespeare poetry. I'm worried about Tommy when he goes to his gang reunions in the bad streets of Oakland. If they find out he has a BA, things could get bad for Tommy. They would no longer bow down to him as the baddest bad man in town.

[Rolf Mantel]

Am 20.05.2022 um 05:09 schrieb russell...@yahoo.com:
> On Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 11:10:46 AM UTC-5, funkma...@hotmail.com
> wrote:
>> On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:01:01 PM UTC-4,
>> russell...@yahoo.com wrote:

>>> Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or
>>> Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from
>>> the sailing school. With a degree I guess.
>> No, that's yet another case of him writing about his fantasy life.
>> I was more amused that he claimed to have received a BA going
>> nights in less than 4 years
>
> Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self
> respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!!
> BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So
> I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a
> Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!!

Actually, as a Mathematician, I have:

Bachelor of Arts,
Master of Science,
Doctor of Philosophy

[Jeff Liebermann]

On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:09:08 -0700 (PDT), "russell...@yahoo.com"
<ritzann...@gmail.com> wrote:

(chomp)

>Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!! BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!! Sounds a little bit foo foo to me.

It took me 6 years to get my BSEE (bachelor of science electrical
engineering). That was typical for the time (late 1960's). 5 years
was considered extraordinary.

>Tommy the artist. Drawing his delicate little swirls with brightly colored ink on the soft cloth. Or reading Elizabethan Shakespeare poetry. I'm worried about Tommy when he goes to his gang reunions in the bad streets of Oakland. If they find out he has a BA, things could get bad for Tommy. They would no longer bow down to him as the baddest bad man in town.

There is hope. With all the creative lying and amazing fact
contriving he does in RBT, I suggested that he take up writing fiction
as a profession. I still think it's a good idea. The nice thing
about writing fiction is that there's little or no fact checking. A
BA in literature or something similar might be useful.

[Frank Krygowski]

On 5/20/2022 10:25 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:09:08 -0700 (PDT), "russell...@yahoo.com"
> <ritzann...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> (chomp)
>> Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!! BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!! Sounds a little bit foo foo to me.
>
> It took me 6 years to get my BSEE (bachelor of science electrical
> engineering). That was typical for the time (late 1960's). 5 years
> was considered extraordinary.

When I started college, the Bachelor's in Engineering required five
years, more time and courses than any other major.

Partway through, the college became a state university, and the state
demanded that no bachelor's curriculum require more than four years. So
the faculty took all the same courses, the same number of classroom and
laboratory hours, and shoehorned them into a theoretical four years.

Nobody, as in nobody, was able to complete the requirements in four
years. It took me five years, the same as most of my friends. A few
required longer.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[ritzann...@gmail.com]

Mathematics is a Bachelor of Arts? I would have put it into the Bachelor of Science category. Or did you just get a general Liberal Arts degree with a specialty in Mathematics.

I hope you do realize I am not speaking ill of the Bachelor of Arts degrees. Or any college or other education. I have a Master of Arts myself. I am merely whipping our poor Tommy boy for fun. Tommy, who denigrates all education as a waste of time and effort.

[John B.]

But of course education is a total waste of time, money and effort!
Hasn't our very own Tommy told us of making literally tons of money
with almost no education at all? PHD's rushing in to be have their
problems solved by the indomitable Tommy.

Why, just the other day he recounted how he was making $250,000
annually and the proof is that he lives in a $50,000 home, drives a
second hand Ford, and had to marry very carefully to ensure that both
he and his new wife could keep drawing their Social Security.
--
Cheers,

John B.