I think it was Brooke who asked whether a “Kershaw baronetage analysis” could be produced for the peerage. While I don’t have time to do that I thought it would be useful to produce a list of those peerages potentially in danger of extinction using the A and B formula adopted in the Kershaw baronetage analysis - I don't think this has been attempted before. This would update and supplement the article “Fifty Years On: The Hereditary Peerage since 1965” by Stephen Kershaw in 2015 Debrett’s P&B and also various posts on heirless peerages etc on this forum and especially Henry W’s useful Wikipedia user pages on heirless titles – see Heirless titles (google.com)
A means the peerage has no heirs aged under 40 ie born after 1981 preventing extinction (or dormancy)
B means the peerage has one heir or none aged under 35 (ie born after 1986) preventing extinction (or dormancy)
* indicates the present peer is the youngest heir to the title. In each case the date is the year of birth of the youngest heir to the title
+ indicates certain other peerages held by the peer will continue. Dukes, Marquesses and Earls in bold. Possible abeyances are not taken into account.
Rather perversely I have listed the A’s in rough order of putative extinction (depending on whether the precise DOB of the youngest heir is known) and the B’s in alphabetical order.
Names in italics indicate that some unknown information may change the position if it were known – explained in notes below
Please let me know any errors and omissions - I am sure there must be some
Trimlestown B – A* 1930; Lawrence B – A* 1937; Sudley B (held by Arran E) – A* 1938 +; Alexander of Tunis E - A 1939
Simon V – A* 1940; de Villiers B – A* 1940; Gough V – A* 1941; Clanmorris B - A 1942; Bagot B – A* 1944; Craigavon V – A* 1944; Croft B – A* 1949; Malvern V - A 1949;
Ilchester E – A 1950; Cullen of Ashbourne B – A* 1950; Sherfield B – A* 1951; Rootes B – A* 1951; Rathcreedan B – A 1952; Glendevon B – A* 1952; Clancarty E – A* 1952; Sinclair of Cleve B – A* 1953; Strathspey B – A 1953; Banbury of Southam B – A* 1953; Northbrook B – A* 1954; Silkin B – A 1954; Montgomery of Alamein V – A* 1954; Latham B – A 1954; Abergavenny M – A* 1955 +; ffrench B – A* 1956; Mills V – A* 1956; de Saumarez B – A 1956; Gridley B – A* 1956; Attlee E – A* 1956; Leighton of St Mellons B - A 1957; Shaughnessy B – A 1957; Stuart of Findhorn V – A 1957; Woolton E – A* 1958; Milner of Leeds B – A* 1959; Norwich V – A* 1959
York D – A* 1960; Graves B – A* 1960; Glendyne B – A* 1960; Margesson V – A* 1960; Long V – A* 1960; Tankerville E – A 1961; Haig E – A* 1961; Monck V – A 1961; Monson B – A 1962; Southwell V – A 1962; Tenby V – A 1962; Keyes B – A 1962; Milverton B – A 1963; Stratheden and Campbell B – A* 1963; Powerscourt B (held by Powerscourt V) – A* 1963 +; Derwent B – A 1965; Brain B – A 1965; May B – A* 1965; Camden M – A 1965; Ashton of Hyde B – A 1966; Napier of Magdala B – B 1966; Harris B – A 1966; Westmeath E – A 1966 +; Jellicoe E – A 1966 + Gisborough B – A 1966; Norbury E – A* 1967; Sinha B – A 1967 – see Note 1; Burden B – A 1967; Gifford B – A 1967; Lindsay of Birker B – A 1967; Burnham B – A* 1968; Renwick B – A 1968
St Davids V – A 1970 +; Simon of Wythenshawe B – A 1970; Swinfen B – A 1971; Davidson V – A* 1971; Doneraile V – A 1971; Teviot B – A 1971; Russell E – A* 1971; Listowel E – A 1972 – see Note 2; Blakenham V – A* 1972 - see Note 2; Poole B – A 1972; Addison V – A 1973; Nelson of Stafford B – A* 1973; Brownlow B – A 1974; Sanderson of Ayot B – A 1974; Coleraine B – A* 1975; Savile B – A 1975; Montagu of Beaulieu B – A 1975; Robertson of Oakridge B – A* 1975; Wilton E – A 1977; Sutherland D – A 1977 +; Methuen B – A 1977; Hatherton B – A 1977; Castle Stewart E – A 1977 (to dormancy); Huntingdon E – A 1977 – see Note 3; Mountevans B – A 1977; Calverley B – A 1978; Rennell B – A* 1978; Cadman B – A 1979; Hardinge of Penshurst B – A 1979 – see Note 4
Scarbrough E – A 1980; Merrivale B – A 1980; Baldwin of Bewdley E – A 1980; Bolingbroke and St John V – A 1980; Caithness E - A 1981; Dunalley B – A 1981; Phillimore B – A 1981; Glenarthur B – A 1981; Kinross B – A 1981; Kirkwood B – A 1981; Soulbury V – A 1981
Albemarle E – B 2003; Aldington B – B 1990; Amwell B – B 2007; Anglesey M – B 1986 releasing Uxbridge E – B 2013 + - see Note 5; Annaly B – B 1990; Antrim E – B 2006; Ashbrook V – B 2006; Aylesford E – B 2014
Baden-Powell B – B 2009; Balfour E – B 1990; Beaverbrook B – B 2014; Birkett B - B* 1982; Bledisloe V – B 2004; Blyth B – B 2006; Bradbury B – B 2008; Braybrooke B – B 2015; Bridport V – B 1983; Broadbridge B – B 1983; Byron B – B 1990
Caldecote V – B 1985; Caledon E – B 1990; Carnock B – B 1988; Carrington B – B 1990; Castlemaine B – B 1989; Cathcart E – B 1986; Chaworth B (held by Meath E) – B 2010 +; Chelmsford V – B 2006 +; Churchill B – B 1990; Clanwilliam B (held by Clanwilliam E) – B 1998 + Clwyd B – B 2006; Cottenham E – B 2020; Cranworth B – B 2006; Craven E – B* 1989
Daventry V – B 1995; de L’Isle V – B 1985; Denham B – B 1997; de Ramsey B – B 2020; Devon E – B 2009; Devonport V – B 1982; Dormer B – B 1995; Dowding B – B 1983; Drogheda E – B 1986; Dudley E – B 1993; Dunleath B – B 1986
Effingham E – B 2007; Elton B – B 2010
Fermoy B – B 2007; Ferrard V (held by Massereene V) – B 2014 +; Fisher B – B 1996; Foley B – B 2006 – see Note 6; Forres B – B 2011; Freyberg B – B 2007
Garvagh B – B 1990; Gerard B – B 1986; Gloucester D – B 2007; Gorell B – B 1993; Goschen V – B 2001; Gosford E – B 1988; Gowrie E – B 1990; Grantley B – B 2005; Gretton B - B 2008
Haden-Guest B – B 1996; Hailsham V – B 1991; Halifax E – B 2010 +; Hampden V – B 2005; Hampton B – B 2005; Harlech B – B* 1986; Harington E – B 2005; Hawke B – B* 1995; Hayter B – B 1986; Hazlerigg B – B 1987; Head V – B 1982; Hemingford B – B 2011; Henniker B – B 1986; Herbert of Lea B (held by Pembroke and Montgomery E) – B 2012; Hill V – B 1988 +; Hives B – B 1987; Howe E – B 1994
Inchyra B – B 1996; Inverforth B – B 1997; Ironside B – B 1991
Kershaw B – B 2001 – see Note 7; Kilbracken B – B 2008; Killanin B – B 2003; Kimberley E – B 2017 +; Kingsale B – B 1993; Kingston E – B 2000 (to dorm)
Langford B – B 1987; Leigh B – B1994; Leinster D – B 1988; Londesborough B – B 1990; Lucan E – B 2020
Macdonald B – B 1982; McGowan B – B 1985; McNair B – B 1984; Mansfield E – B 1988; Marchamley B – B 2004; Marks of Broughton B – B 1989; Martonmere B – B 2003; Mayo E – B 1989; Melville V – B 2018; Midlothian E (held by Rosebery E) – B 2005 +; Milford Haven M - B 1991; Morris B – B 1998; Mount Edgcumbe E – B 1985; Mountgarret V – B 2015; Muskerry B – B 1986
Nathan B – B 1999; Noel-Buxton B – B 1988; Norton B – B 2015
Oaksey B – B 1990; O’Hagan B – B 1985; Onslow E – B 1984 +; Orkney E – B 2008
Peel E – B 2015; Piercy B – B 1989; Poltimore B – B 1987; Ponsonby of Shulbrede B – B 1995; Portland E - B 1988;
Rankeillour B – B 2003; Rathcavan B – B 1984; Ravensworth B – B 1987; Reading M – B 1986; Redesdale B – B 2000; Reith B – B 2006; Rendlesham B – B 2002; Ritchie of Dundee B – B 2004; Rochdale V – B 2001; Rochester B – B 1985; Rosslyn E – B 1995; Rossmore B – B 1983; Rothschild B – B 1985
Sackville B – B 2000; St Aldwyn E – B 1998; St Germans E – B* 2004; St Helens B – B 1986; Samuel V – B 1983; Scarsdale V – B 2001; Seaford B – B 2017; Selsdon B – B 2006; Shaftesbury E – B 2011; Sligo M – B 1988 +; Snowdon E – B 1999; Spens B – B 2000; Stamp B - B 1990; Strathcarron B – B 2017; Sudeley B – B 2004; Sussex D – B 2019; Swansea B – B 1999
Tedder B – B 1986; Terrington B – B 1987; Thomson of Fleet B – B 2006; Trevor B – B 2004
Ullswater V – B 2009
Ventry B – B 1995
Wakehurst B – B 1986; Waldegrave E – B 1989; Warwick and Brooke E – B 2003 releasing Brooke B – B 2011; Waverley V – B 1996; Wessex E – B 2007; Westminster D – B* 1991; Westwood B – B 2003 – see Note8 Wigram B – B 1984; Wimborne V – B 2016; Winchester M – B 1999; Wrenbury B – B 1997 – see Note 9
Note 1 – Sinha B (A 1967) - Dr Sunil KR Sinha (b 1939 of California) has two sons of unknown DOBs by a marriage of unknown date
Note 2 – Listowel E (A 1972) - Viscount Blakenham is married (date unknown) with a son (Inigo) of unknown DOB so may be in succession – Debrett’s indicates he is though
Note 3 – Huntingdon E (A 1977) - the youngest heir (Adam F Hastings of New South Wales) appears to have a son who may be in succession
Note 4 – Hardinge of Penshurst B (A 1979) - the half-brother (Hon Charles A Hardinge b 1967 of Germany) of present Baron is married (unknown date) with two sons (Anthony C and Alexander M) of unknown DOB’s so may be in succession
Note 5 – Uxbridge E (B 2013) (assuming Anglesey M is extinct) - kinsman William Berkeley Paget (b 1976) is married (date unknown) with a child (of unknown sex and DOB) who may be in succession
Note 6 – Foley B (B 2006) - the hp Rupert Thomas Foley (b 1970) is married and has a son of unknown DOB so may in succession
Note 7 – Kershaw B (B 2001) - there are unspecified issue of unknown DOBs of Alexander J (b 1977) and Christopher D Kershaw (b 1980) – so there may be further heirs
Note 8 – Westwood B (B 2003) – this assumes that the present Baron’s brother Hon Alistair C Westwood (b 1974) does have a son Ben (b 2003) in succession – see WESTWOOD, Rt Hon 3rd Baron (1944-2019) (google.com)
Note 9 – Wrenbury B (B 1997) - hp’s brother Samuel B Buckley (b 1973) is married and has three (unspecified) children who could also be in succession
These are a few notes to update the second half (“Looking Forward”) of the article “Fifty years on: the Hereditary Peerage since 1965” in Debrett’s P&B 2015 for the benefit of those with access to this edition. Kershaw’s article deals mainly with the change in the number of peers rather than peerages
Kershaw states that (in Oct 2014) that were 98 peerages in Category A and 150 in Category B. In fact those figures have increased over the past six and a half years and there would appear now to be 106 in Category A and 162 in Category B
PEERS OF THE BLOOD ROYAL
As predicted a Dukedom was conferred on Prince Harry which is in Cat B
Edinburgh and Cambridge have both come off the B list although both will almost certainly in due course revert to the Crown
DUKES
Sutherland has moved into Cat A. This makes 1 extinction very probable
MARQUESSES
Anglesey has moved into Cat B making 5 in total now
Kershaw states that if Westminster were to become extinct it would release the Marquessate to the Earl of Wilton but none of the heirs to the Earl of Wilton are younger than the Duke himself.
EARLS
Lovelace has become extinct.
Baldwin of Bewdley, Caithness, Castle Stewart, Huntingdon, Scarbrough and Wilton have moved to Cat A. This makes 18 extinctions very probable instead of 13. Clancarty to dormancy rather than extinction
The death of the Earl of Ilchester’s son (Lord Stavordale) in 2018 puts that earldom in a worse position, the only heir being the Earl’s unmarried younger brother.
Listowel should however move to the B list if Viscount Blakenham’s son is legitimate as seems to be the case
There are now 34 Earls on the B list instead of 25
The Marquessate of Anglesey has only one heir born after 1986 preventing its extinction and the release of the Earldom of Uxbridge (cr 1784) but that Earldom may then only have one heir itself under 35 preventing extinction (subject to Note 5 to my original post).
VISCOUNTS
Alanbroke and Churchill (which released the Barony of the same name) have become extinct
Mountgarret has moved to Cat B
Bolingbroke/St John and Soulbury have moved to Cat A. This makes 20 extinctions probable instead of 21
Viscount Blakenham should however move to the B list if his son is legitimate as seems to be the case
There are now 21 Viscounts on the B list instead of 16
Kershaw states that if the Earldom of Peel were to become extinct it would release the Viscountcy of the same name but none of the heirs to the Viscountcy are now younger than the heir to the Earldom. Lord Peel does now have a young grandson in succession so the Earldom is in a better position.
BARONS/LORDS
Birdwood, Gladwyn, Greenhill, Lyell, Melchett, Strang and Wardington have become extinct
Haden-Guest has moved to Cat B
Chorley and Wise are no longer on either list.
Coleraine, Savile, Montagu of Beaulieu, Robertson of Oakridge, Methuen, Hatherton, Mountevans, Calverley, Rennell, Hardinge of Penshurst, Merrivale, Phillimore, Glenarthur and Kinross have moved to Cat A. This makes 64 probable extinctions instead of 60
Kirkwood is still on the A list though in a better position as it appears the youngest heir is b 1981
Brabourne has now been absorbed by Mountbatten of Burma E. The Barony of Churchill has indeed been released by the extinction of the Viscountcy of Churchill. The present Viscount (and Baron) Powerscourt succeeded in 2015.
There are now 97 Barons on the B list instead of 99
The Earl of Onslow has no heirs under 35 preventing release of the Barony of Onslow on the extinction of the Earldom and other subsidiary peerages.
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DE VERE CAPELL
On Tuesday 5th January [2016] peacefully at Dolphinlee House Doris Margaret (Countess of Essex) Aged 94. Beloved wife of the late Robert and loving mother to Paul and his
partner Jim, also a much loved sister to Jean and to sister-in-law Margaret,
and aunt to many generations of nephews and nieces.......
Doris Capell Obituary (2016) - Lancaster Guardian
The new Earl of Essex, 11th of his line and successor to some of the most powerful and feared noblemen in English history, is not your obvious toff.
Otherwise known as plain Paul Capell, the earl has spent most of his life as a teacher, drives a four-year-old Rover 25, and lives in a two-bedroom, pebble-dashed bungalow called Lindisfarne.
He is more concerned with the state of his flowering rockery than the rolling acres of country houses his ancestors once owned, and would never relinquish his comfortable sports jackets for ermine.
His neighbours in the village of Caton, near Lancaster, regard the 61-year-old bachelor simply as "a gent''.
"He's just a very good chap to live next to,'' said Ken Garton, the retired managing director of a plastics company.
"He's never lorded it over us and he's far too modest to make anything of his title.''
The earl assumed the title when his father, the 10th earl, aka Robert "Bob" Capell, from nearby Torrisholme, Morecambe, died on June 5.
Like his father, the 11th earl inherited nothing of value, merely avowed membership of an ancient and drama-soaked lineage.
Mr Capell Snr, whose widow, Doris Countess of Essex, survives him, was similarly known for his modesty. A former Hampshire county footballer, he served as a flight sergeant and PT instructor in the RAF, worked for the Post Office savings department and eventually ran a greengrocer's in Morecambe.
His life changed for ever in 1966 when an anonymous letter landed on his doormat, telling him of the author's view that he was the rightful heir to the title.
Unless he claimed it, the title would pass to a more distant relative in America.
Mr Capell spent the next two decades, and a sizeable proportion of a Post Office employee's salary, trying to prove his ancestry. He did so by tracing all the lines of heirs from the sixth Earl, who died in 1892, contacting distant relatives and collecting 80 signed documents.
He proved that his great-uncle Ethelred Capell died childless in 1929 in Australia and another great-uncle, Brownlow Capell, perished without heirs in a typhoon in the Sea of Japan in 1860.
Eventually, in 1969, Bob Capell proved that his great-grandfather was older than the great-grandfather of his rival. Debrett's upheld his claim and when his distant relative the 9th Earl died in 1981, the one-time Socialist took his seat in the Lords as the 10th Earl of Essex, Viscount Malden, Baron Capell.
He vowed that his ennoblement would not change him. "My title is the Earl of Essex,'' he said, "but call me Bob.''
His son, Ferederick Paul De Vere Capel, has long been free to use the title Viscount Malden, but few of his colleagues or pupils at Skerton County Primary School, where he was deputy headmaster and acting headmaster, knew of his aristocratic connection.
Nor that his family motto is Fide et fortitudine (By fidelity and fortitude).
Yesterday the earl, whose hobbies include walking, gardening and working out in his local gym, was reluctant to speak of his new title, beyond confirming the details of the legal battle to claim it.
One of the countess's neighbours recalled: "Bob told us he'd known from childhood that he could one day be the Earl of Essex, but it took him a long time to get the certificates sorted out.
"He was such a nice man and he loved pottering about in his garden. I don't know much about Paul, but he seems very similar."
The 11th Earl is a bachelor. After his death, the title will pass to a distant cousin in California.