Election Betting Odds

[John Clark]

Election Betting Odds says  Trump has a 60% chance of winning, I hate to say it but I think that's about right. The polls say it's dead even but in 2020 Trump did better than the polls said he would, and in 2016 he did MUCH better, probably because Trump fans are embarrassed to admit that they are going to vote for Trump. I'd be embarrassed too if I was going to vote for Trump. I think the same thing is gonna happen this time, and I sure hope I'm wrong.  

Election Betting Odds

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

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[John Clark]

About those betting odds, I found out something new today, the odds may have been manipulated. In today's New York Times I read this: 

"Mr. Trump’s apparent lead may be an illusion. The odds on Polymarket began favoring him this month after just four accounts, with user names like Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro, bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory, according to an analysis of transaction records by Chaos Labs, a crypto data provider. Polymarket said on Thursday that all four accounts were controlled by one person, whom it described as a French national with a financial services background, without revealing the person’s identity.

The election betting has placed enormous scrutiny on Polymarket, a start-up based in New York that allows people to wager crypto on everything from sports to Taylor Swift’s romantic prospects. The start-up, which is backed by an investment firm of the conservative tech mogul Peter Thiel, a strong Trump supporter. The bets that bolstered Mr. Trump’s odds have raised alarms that Polymarket could be vulnerable to manipulation. The trader who placed the wagers might have been “willing to take the losses in order to change public perceptions,” said Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College. “And possibly have an effect on things like donations and morale and volunteer support and turnout.” "

John K Clark

[Giulio Prisco]

To me, this thing is a 50% coin toss. I don't trust the partisan
propaganda of the two main parties, and I don't trust the betting
markets, which are still too small to be impermeable to manipulation.
So I think either of the two main candidates could win, by a small or
a big margin. Who wins will be known soon enough, though if the margin
is small then the losers will say that the winners have stolen the
elections. So I won't waste too much time thinking about this, please
write to me in a few weeks and tell me who won.

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[John Clark]

On Fri, Oct 25, 2024 at 10:30 AM Giulio Prisco <giu...@gmail.com> wrote:

 > if the margins are small then the losers will say that the winners have stolen the elections.

That is only half true. If Harris loses she will say she lost fair and square, just like every losing presidential candidate in the history of the country has said, with the obvious exception of convicted felon Donald Trump in 2020. But if Hitler loving Donald Trump loses the election then there is a 100% chance he will claim the election was crooked. In fact even if fascist Donald wins by a landslide he will STILL say the election was crooked because he should've won by an even larger margin. Remember this is the same guy who claimed but the election for the Emmy Awards were crooked because his crappy game show didn't win a prize.  

 John K Clark 

[Will Steinberg]

I will argue with you on this point—I think if the election is very close, either losing side will claim cheating and other illegal interference by the other side.  And honestly I wouldn’t be surprised that if the blue team claims the red team cheated, you’d back them up.

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[John Clark]

On Fri, Oct 25, 2024 at 5:52 PM Will Steinberg <steinbe...@gmail.com> wrote:

> I wouldn’t be surprised that if the blue team claims the red team cheated, you’d back them up.

Not unless the blue team was able to produce some rocksolid evidence I wouldn't!!  And I don't expect that to happen, I expect it to be a fair election. I also expect there is a greater than 50% chance Trump will win that fair election, and therefore it will be the last fair election this country ever sees. 

John K Clark 

 

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[Will Steinberg]

I think it is a total coinflip, look at what happened in 2016.  I wouldn’t take a bet on either of them.

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[Stuart LaForge]

Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Oregon, Washington sparking chaos

Does burning ballot boxes in Portland, OR and Vancouver, WA count as "cheating"?

Stuart LaForge

[John Clark]

On Tue, Oct 29, 2024 at 3:24 PM Stuart LaForge <stuart....@gmail.com> wrote:

> Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Oregon, Washington sparking chaos

Does burning ballot boxes in Portland, OR and Vancouver, WA count as "cheating"?

Obviously that would be cheating, but not enough to affect the outcome of the election. And it's not clear to me which side was doing the cheating, however Washington and Oregon are not swing states and are in fact very blue, and Portland and Vancouver are the bluest parts of those very blue states, so most of the votes that burned up were almost certainly for Harris. Therefore I suspect a MAGA zombie was the arsonist, although I have no proof of that so I could be wrong. 

John K Clark