How did Avila do with the rebuild?
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Roger King
Jun 9, 2025, 3:14:57 PMJun 9
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Virtually half of the Tigers roster this season (12 players) were drafted by Al Avila during the rebuild years of 2017-21 after they decided to tear it down in late 2017.
2017: Right-handed pitcher Will Vest.
2018: Right-handed pitcher Casey Mize, left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal and outfielder Parker Meadows.
2019: Outfielders Riley Greene & Kerry Carpenter and right-handed pitcher Beau Brieske.
2020: Infielders Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith; and catcher Dillon Dingler.
2021: Right-handed pitcher Jackson Jobe and left-handed pitcher Brant Hurter.
Javy Baez (free agent)
Wenceel Perez (International free agent)
Keider Montero (International free agent)
Reese Olson (trade)
Jake Rogers (trade)
Sawyer Gipson-Long (trade)
Only Flaherty, Brebbia, Hanifee, Holton, Kahnle, Lee, Torres, McKinstry & Sweeney were acquired by Scott Harris. Plus Jones who was just called up. And if you want to include Vierling, on the injured list.
So the best team in baseball is very much Avila‘s team, which is why my friends I keep saying that he’s screaming at the television in the basement. It all arrived just too late to save his job.
Roger King
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Michael W
Jun 9, 2025, 6:47:20 PMJun 9
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Avila wasn't fired because he didn't know how to draft talent. Avila was fired because he hadn't a clue how to develop talent. Similarly, Harris didn't get hired because his "sift the waiver wire" strategy was so clever. He got hired because he knows how to build organizational capability.
I have to admit that I don't know for certain whether this is true, but I believe a competent owner would have recognized those things.
Michael
Peter Welch
Jun 9, 2025, 8:36:47 PMJun 9
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Not defending Avila, but didn't he hire some of the player development/analytics staff that are still in the organization who are getting credit for the farm system improvements? Of course, Avila hired Sam Menzin and kept him around when it was likely known
what a creep he was. Big negative there.
Avila also kept dinosaurs David Littlefield and David Chadd around, and they were terrible.
Avila probably should never have been a GM and just stayed as a head scout. He could identify talent pretty well.
Peter
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Subject: Re: How did Avila do with the rebuild?
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Peter Welch
Jun 9, 2025, 8:50:33 PMJun 9
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Harris also kept Menzin around too long when female employees had been complaining about him.
This was not a good look for the Tigers' management.
Peter
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Roger King
Jun 9, 2025, 9:20:41 PMJun 9
to Peter Welch, Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Avila also hired Hinch and most importantly Chris Fetter.
As I’ve said before, I think he clearly failed at the first mandate from ownership which was to try to win a championship before Mike Ilitch passed away. He was given lots of money to work with and he spent it poorly.
Then midway through 2017, he was given a completely different mandate, which was to tear it all down and rebuild. On that, he clearly did well. We’re looking at the players now as I outlined below. He had the misfortune of the pandemic interfering with player development. Literally no minor league games were played in 2020, which was a key year in the rebuilding plan for the Tigers.
But then going into 2022, Avila was once again allowed to spend some real money and once again, he spent it poorly.
But on the overview, Tiger fans lambasted Chris Ilich for being cheap and I never really understood it. He had a plan and stuck to it. If people disagreed with the plan, that’s fair game… But he did have a plan. He wanted to see the young talent develop first before committing to significantly increasing the payroll. It worked, though it took a touch longer than some Tiger fans would’ve liked. But again, 2020 was a factor there, plus some bad spending *and* bad luck in 2022.
Anyway, here we are atop all of major-league baseball after an exciting playoff run last season.
Sean Sweda
Jun 9, 2025, 10:39:25 PMJun 9
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
OK, I've hit my limit on Avila rehabilitation.
Any warm body with a GM title for a half-decade is going to draft a few MLB players, so dropping a list of guys on the current team who were Avila draft picks doesn't mean much. You have to evaluate the results against what would ordinarily be expected given the picks available. By far the easiest picks to evaluate this way are Mize and Torkelson, since the Tigers could literally have had any player they wanted those years. To this point in their careers they have only produced about 5 WAR combined and roughly half of their seasons of team control are already gone. I certainly wouldn't look at what the Tigers have got out of the Mize and Torkelson picks so far and grade Avila positively.
Even if you want to give Avila credit for being a good drafter outside of Mize/Tork (I'm skeptical), the real problem is that he consistently botched the biggest decisions during his tenure. Avila gave money to the Astros so they would trade for Justin Verlander, who then went out and won *two* more Cy Young Awards. Avila set $140 million on fire signing Javy Baez when it should have been clear at the time <https://groups.google.com/g/detroit-tigers/c/6yZTXh8XQAg/m/cH9ruuIqBAAJ> that it was a really bad idea. That happened right after the Tigers were finally getting out from under Avila's disastrous Jordan Zimmermann contract. All of the little successes along the way really can't make up the difference when you're maximally failing on the high-leverage stuff.
Sean
> On Jun 9, 2025, at 9:20 PM, Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com> wrote:
>
> Avila also hired Hinch and most importantly Chris Fetter.
>
> As I’ve said before, I think he clearly failed at the first mandate from ownership which was to try to win a championship before Mike Ilitch passed away. He was given lots of money to work with and he spent it poorly.
>
> Then midway through 2017, he was given a completely different mandate, which was to tear it all down and rebuild. On that, he clearly did well. We’re looking at the players now as I outlined below. He had the misfortune of the pandemic interfering with player development. Literally no minor league games were played in 2020, which was a key year in the rebuilding plan for the Tigers.
>
> But then going into 2022, Avila was once again allowed to spend some real money and once again, he spent it poorly.
>
> But on the overview, Tiger fans lambasted Chris Ilich for being cheap and I never really understood it. He had a plan and stuck to it. If people disagreed with the plan, that’s fair game… But he did have a plan. He wanted to see the young talent develop first before committing to significantly increasing the payroll. It worked, though it took a touch longer than some Tiger fans would’ve liked. But again, 2020 was a factor there, plus some bad spending *and* bad luck in 2022.
>
> Anyway, here we are atop all of major-league baseball after an exciting playoff run last season.
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 9, 2025 at 8:36 PM Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Not defending Avila, but didn't he hire some of the player development/analytics staff that are still in the organization who are getting credit for the farm system improvements? Of course, Avila hired Sam Menzin and kept him around when it was likely known what a creep he was. Big negative there.
>
> Avila also kept dinosaurs David Littlefield and David Chadd around, and they were terrible.
>
> Avila probably should never have been a GM and just stayed as a head scout. He could identify talent pretty well.
>
> Peter
>
>
> To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/CAG8ixx1Lmxhi9N8EXtVJv3fNvUB5rhNexekUVTfrwBr9kwom9w%40mail.gmail.com.
Any warm body with a GM title for a half-decade is going to draft a few MLB players, so dropping a list of guys on the current team who were Avila draft picks doesn't mean much. You have to evaluate the results against what would ordinarily be expected given the picks available. By far the easiest picks to evaluate this way are Mize and Torkelson, since the Tigers could literally have had any player they wanted those years. To this point in their careers they have only produced about 5 WAR combined and roughly half of their seasons of team control are already gone. I certainly wouldn't look at what the Tigers have got out of the Mize and Torkelson picks so far and grade Avila positively.
Even if you want to give Avila credit for being a good drafter outside of Mize/Tork (I'm skeptical), the real problem is that he consistently botched the biggest decisions during his tenure. Avila gave money to the Astros so they would trade for Justin Verlander, who then went out and won *two* more Cy Young Awards. Avila set $140 million on fire signing Javy Baez when it should have been clear at the time <https://groups.google.com/g/detroit-tigers/c/6yZTXh8XQAg/m/cH9ruuIqBAAJ> that it was a really bad idea. That happened right after the Tigers were finally getting out from under Avila's disastrous Jordan Zimmermann contract. All of the little successes along the way really can't make up the difference when you're maximally failing on the high-leverage stuff.
Sean
> On Jun 9, 2025, at 9:20 PM, Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com> wrote:
>
> Avila also hired Hinch and most importantly Chris Fetter.
>
> As I’ve said before, I think he clearly failed at the first mandate from ownership which was to try to win a championship before Mike Ilitch passed away. He was given lots of money to work with and he spent it poorly.
>
> Then midway through 2017, he was given a completely different mandate, which was to tear it all down and rebuild. On that, he clearly did well. We’re looking at the players now as I outlined below. He had the misfortune of the pandemic interfering with player development. Literally no minor league games were played in 2020, which was a key year in the rebuilding plan for the Tigers.
>
> But then going into 2022, Avila was once again allowed to spend some real money and once again, he spent it poorly.
>
> But on the overview, Tiger fans lambasted Chris Ilich for being cheap and I never really understood it. He had a plan and stuck to it. If people disagreed with the plan, that’s fair game… But he did have a plan. He wanted to see the young talent develop first before committing to significantly increasing the payroll. It worked, though it took a touch longer than some Tiger fans would’ve liked. But again, 2020 was a factor there, plus some bad spending *and* bad luck in 2022.
>
> Anyway, here we are atop all of major-league baseball after an exciting playoff run last season.
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 9, 2025 at 8:36 PM Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Not defending Avila, but didn't he hire some of the player development/analytics staff that are still in the organization who are getting credit for the farm system improvements? Of course, Avila hired Sam Menzin and kept him around when it was likely known what a creep he was. Big negative there.
>
> Avila also kept dinosaurs David Littlefield and David Chadd around, and they were terrible.
>
> Avila probably should never have been a GM and just stayed as a head scout. He could identify talent pretty well.
>
> Peter
>
>
Jeffrey Withey
Jun 9, 2025, 11:02:36 PMJun 9
to Sean Sweda, Detroit Tigers e-mail list
I agree 100% with Sean. And as I have pointed out several times, the draft record under Dombrowski was abysmal. If Avila was the head of scouting then, he was terrible at his job.
Jeff
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From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>
Sent: Monday, June 9, 2025 10:39:21 PM
Sent: Monday, June 9, 2025 10:39:21 PM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: How did Avila do with the rebuild?
[EXTERNAL]
OK, I've hit my limit on Avila rehabilitation.
Any warm body with a GM title for a half-decade is going to draft a few MLB players, so dropping a list of guys on the current team who were Avila draft picks doesn't mean much. You have to evaluate the results against what would ordinarily be expected given the picks available. By far the easiest picks to evaluate this way are Mize and Torkelson, since the Tigers could literally have had any player they wanted those years. To this point in their careers they have only produced about 5 WAR combined and roughly half of their seasons of team control are already gone. I certainly wouldn't look at what the Tigers have got out of the Mize and Torkelson picks so far and grade Avila positively.
Even if you want to give Avila credit for being a good drafter outside of Mize/Tork (I'm skeptical), the real problem is that he consistently botched the biggest decisions during his tenure. Avila gave money to the Astros so they would trade for Justin Verlander,
who then went out and won *two* more Cy Young Awards. Avila set $140 million on fire signing Javy Baez when it should have been clear at the time <https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgroups.google.com%2Fg%2Fdetroit-tigers%2Fc%2F6yZTXh8XQAg%2Fm%2FcH9ruuIqBAAJ&data=05%7C02%7Cjwithey%40med.wayne.edu%7C23c4184270b34481fcb608dda7c8040c%7Ce51cdec9811d471dbbe6dd3d8d54c28b%7C1%7C0%7C638851200134631633%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C80000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=IKMBhAAXGV02VzEynJ66JnHV665QYl8ihXCX94TDrwI%3D&reserved=0>
that it was a really bad idea. That happened right after the Tigers were finally getting out from under Avila's disastrous Jordan Zimmermann contract. All of the little successes along the way really can't make up the difference when you're maximally failing
on the high-leverage stuff.
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Peter Welch
Jun 10, 2025, 12:18:56 PMJun 10
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Avila did blow some #1 picks on duds.
Beau Burrows, 2015
Matt Manning, 2016
Alex Faedo, 2017
He also insisted on drafting Jace Jung over Zach Neto even though scouts were recommending Neto.
He also blew some 2nd-round picks such as Rey Rivera (2017), Nick Quintana (2019), Daniel Cabrera (2020), Peyton Graham (2022).
To be fair, Avila came up with a couple of great lower-round picks (Skubal, 9th-round, Carpenter, 19th-round)) plus good picks Keith (5th-round) and Meadows (2nd-round) to offset some of those duds.
Peter
From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>
Sent: Monday, June 9, 2025 10:39 PM
Sent: Monday, June 9, 2025 10:39 PM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: How did Avila do with the rebuild?
OK, I've hit my limit on Avila rehabilitation.
Any warm body with a GM title for a half-decade is going to draft a few MLB players, so dropping a list of guys on the current team who were Avila draft picks doesn't mean much. You have to evaluate the results against what would ordinarily be expected given the picks available. By far the easiest picks to evaluate this way are Mize and Torkelson, since the Tigers could literally have had any player they wanted those years. To this point in their careers they have only produced about 5 WAR combined and roughly half of their seasons of team control are already gone. I certainly wouldn't look at what the Tigers have got out of the Mize and Torkelson picks so far and grade Avila positively.
Any warm body with a GM title for a half-decade is going to draft a few MLB players, so dropping a list of guys on the current team who were Avila draft picks doesn't mean much. You have to evaluate the results against what would ordinarily be expected given the picks available. By far the easiest picks to evaluate this way are Mize and Torkelson, since the Tigers could literally have had any player they wanted those years. To this point in their careers they have only produced about 5 WAR combined and roughly half of their seasons of team control are already gone. I certainly wouldn't look at what the Tigers have got out of the Mize and Torkelson picks so far and grade Avila positively.
Even if you want to give Avila credit for being a good drafter outside of Mize/Tork (I'm skeptical), the real problem is that he consistently botched the biggest decisions during his tenure. Avila gave money to the Astros so they would trade for Justin Verlander,
who then went out and won *two* more Cy Young Awards. Avila set $140 million on fire signing Javy Baez when it should have been clear at the time <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgroups.google.com%2Fg%2Fdetroit-tigers%2Fc%2F6yZTXh8XQAg%2Fm%2FcH9ruuIqBAAJ&data=05%7C02%7C%7C7db2d27ec75a4e989b2108dda7c80407%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638851199680245928%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=yfSeLSkldynk2i5rldMdiTvvgKvaWj43TC%2Bi9SBiKK4%3D&reserved=0>
that it was a really bad idea. That happened right after the Tigers were finally getting out from under Avila's disastrous Jordan Zimmermann contract. All of the little successes along the way really can't make up the difference when you're maximally failing
on the high-leverage stuff.
> PN Agency – https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pnagency.com%2F&data=05%7C02%7C%7C7db2d27ec75a4e989b2108dda7c80407%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638851199680266194%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ROpTAcSmgVkt4r546eD1Jl2kKZjSTtmN%2BC%2FOI%2BExMK4%3D&reserved=0
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Roger King
Jun 10, 2025, 12:30:01 PMJun 10
to Peter Welch, Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Avila made quite a number of bad decisions. But per the title of my email, the post was simply meant to suggest that the Tigers rebuilding plan from the end of the 2017 season seems to have been a success. There's a huge gap between "Any warm body with a GM title for a half-decade is going to draft a few MLB players" and the #1 team in baseball.
The core of the roster that had a nice playoff run last year and is now leading MLB is largely a group drafted/acquired by Avila, including Hinch & Fetter. We can acknowledge this, even if it's begrudgingly under our breath :-)
The plan after 2017 was to rebuild and develop a core of largely homegrown talent that can potentially be competitive for years. We're here now.
Sean Sweda
Jun 10, 2025, 2:33:12 PMJun 10
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
There's a difference between having the best record and being the best team. Nobody with clear eyes should be looking at this Tigers roster and thinking it is the best collection of talent in MLB.
Avila sucked at major aspects of his job and we should be thankful he is not around anymore. I'd be ecstatic if I never had to read his name again.
> On Jun 10, 2025, at 12:29 PM, Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com> wrote:
>
> Avila made quite a number of bad decisions. But per the title of my email, the post was simply meant to suggest that the Tigers rebuilding plan from the end of the 2017 season seems to have been a success. There's a huge gap between "Any warm body with a GM title for a half-decade is going to draft a few MLB players" and the #1 team in baseball.
>
> The core of the roster that had a nice playoff run last year and is now leading MLB is largely a group drafted/acquired by Avila, including Hinch & Fetter. We can acknowledge this, even if it's begrudgingly under our breath :-)
>
> The plan after 2017 was to rebuild and develop a core of largely homegrown talent that can potentially be competitive for years. We're here now.
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 10, 2025 at 12:18 PM Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Avila did blow some #1 picks on duds.
>
> Beau Burrows, 2015
> Matt Manning, 2016
> Alex Faedo, 2017
>
> He also insisted on drafting Jace Jung over Zach Neto even though scouts were recommending Neto.
>
> He also blew some 2nd-round picks such as Rey Rivera (2017), Nick Quintana (2019), Daniel Cabrera (2020), Peyton Graham (2022).
>
> To be fair, Avila came up with a couple of great lower-round picks (Skubal, 9th-round, Carpenter, 19th-round)) plus good picks Keith (5th-round) and Meadows (2nd-round) to offset some of those duds.
>
> Peter
> To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/CAG8ixx2-7LBYmkgB6AQcLg261rTgHHzAfB%2Bhxb8yV6PCcC%2BMiQ%40mail.gmail.com.
Avila sucked at major aspects of his job and we should be thankful he is not around anymore. I'd be ecstatic if I never had to read his name again.
> On Jun 10, 2025, at 12:29 PM, Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com> wrote:
>
> Avila made quite a number of bad decisions. But per the title of my email, the post was simply meant to suggest that the Tigers rebuilding plan from the end of the 2017 season seems to have been a success. There's a huge gap between "Any warm body with a GM title for a half-decade is going to draft a few MLB players" and the #1 team in baseball.
>
> The core of the roster that had a nice playoff run last year and is now leading MLB is largely a group drafted/acquired by Avila, including Hinch & Fetter. We can acknowledge this, even if it's begrudgingly under our breath :-)
>
> The plan after 2017 was to rebuild and develop a core of largely homegrown talent that can potentially be competitive for years. We're here now.
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 10, 2025 at 12:18 PM Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Avila did blow some #1 picks on duds.
>
> Beau Burrows, 2015
> Matt Manning, 2016
> Alex Faedo, 2017
>
> He also insisted on drafting Jace Jung over Zach Neto even though scouts were recommending Neto.
>
> He also blew some 2nd-round picks such as Rey Rivera (2017), Nick Quintana (2019), Daniel Cabrera (2020), Peyton Graham (2022).
>
> To be fair, Avila came up with a couple of great lower-round picks (Skubal, 9th-round, Carpenter, 19th-round)) plus good picks Keith (5th-round) and Meadows (2nd-round) to offset some of those duds.
>
> Peter
Paul Meloche
Jun 10, 2025, 3:31:28 PMJun 10
to Sean Sweda, Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Sean brings up a good point.
Teams like the Dodgers, Padres, the NY teams, etc all have IMO "better" players and more talent.
I'm frankly really surprised the team has been this good so far. I thought they'd be in the 83-79 range before the season. I think barring a lot of injuries they'll finish better than that but I don't feel they'll maintain this 104 win pace all year.
I think some of the improvement has been young players getting better. I noted a few weeks ago that with very few exceptions EVERY hitter was having a better year than last season. We've seen regression from some guys since then. But guys like Meadows and Perez being in the lineup instead of Sweeney and Malloy moving forward is likely a net positive.
I also think we've been lucky. From where I sit we've gotten more than our share of questionable ump calls and 50/50 pop-ups that fall when we're batting and get caught when we're in the field.
That being said, the pitching is really good, even if the bullpen isn't quite as good overall compared to last year. I think in a series against anyone, even the more talented teams, the pitching and just enough offense gives us a chance.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/FEEAFF86-98C9-48EA-AF9B-0D490BC689BE%40ibl.org.
Peter Welch
Jun 10, 2025, 5:16:23 PMJun 10
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Yep, we're good at run prevention. We were good at run scoring for a while because even the bottom of the lineup had guys with .800+ OPS and Tork even had a high batting average for a while. Now that those guys have cooled off we're having a harder time scoring
runs, but we still find ways to win more often than not.
But ultimately this team's strength is preventing runs due to pitching and defense.
Peter
From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Paul Meloche <meloc...@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, June 10, 2025 3:31 PM
To: Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>
Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, June 10, 2025 3:31 PM
To: Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>
Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
To view this discussion visit
https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/CAM0OySonezFBHeHEXHR6J_AT_C3TSVr8x2Z6KrCb67TQijqGyg%40mail.gmail.com.
Roger King
Jun 10, 2025, 6:04:25 PMJun 10
to Peter Welch, Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Obviously Baez & McKinstry have been having better seasons than last year…and of course Tork isn’t in the minors :-)
I guess we could include Dingler as well but it’s not like he’s playing way over his head I don’t think. And Rogers is arguably even worse than last year so far.
Other than that, I don’t see any hitters who are overachieving by any stretch. I hope Keith will continue to improve. He certainly didn’t get off to a hot start or anything.
Greene is maybe a little more borderline All-Star this year than last.
Carpenter is pretty consistent, but wouldn’t describe it as overachieving.
Torres is having a good year but I don’t think it’s unexpected or that he can’t sustain it, more or less
If Meadows can produce something like his second half last year, that’s obviously going to help the offense a lot.
Not sure what we’ll continue to get from Perez and now Jones who has joined the team but certainly can’t be worse than what we were getting from Ibanez, Jung, Malloy & Kreidler at various points earlier on in the season.
So it’s possible things may all balance out and we might not see any major drop off on the hitting side of things as we go deeper into the summer.
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