Baez Signing

[Michael W]

I'm not going to complain about the Mr. Illitch spending his money to help the Tigers win.  I'm happy to have Baez on the team, he's a good player.  And - he'll look great at second base next to Willi Castro ;-)

If I was going to nitpick, personally I think it's a year early, and, partly as a result of that, with a player that's a little too old.  I think Mize, Manning, Skubal, Torkelson, Greene and Baddoo will be a good core of players to build around, but probably not good enough in 2022.  It's a little like Morris, Trammell, Whitaker and Parrish coming up in '77 and '78.  The Tigers needed a few years before these guys were starting to hit on all cylinders.  

We should have held out one more year, and signed one of the free-agents next year - a little younger and better synched with current squad.  I think it's telling that the Tigers let Castellanos go because he was too old to hit the window for their next wave of prospects - but Nick is only 9 months older than Javier.  

My ideal outcome at this point is that Baez plays really well for some expanded-playoff wild-cardish Tigers teams in 2022 and '23, then knowing he's going to bolt after the season, the Tigers trade him at the end of 2023 for nice haul to the team that wants to sign him long-term.  

But I'm not complaining.  Good enough.

Best,

Michael

[Peter Welch]

I agree with Michael that next year might have been better to spend big on a SS (maybe somebody like Bogaerts, Turner or Swanson) but the Tigers desperately needed a legit major league shortstop.  No more Goodrums and Castros at SS.

I wanted them sign Correa, Seager or Story, but I'm ok with the Baez deal since there is an opt-out and at least it wasn't 8 or 10 years and by the going market it wasn't an overpay.  Plus we didn't give up a draft pick to sign him.

Baez should put up 4-5 WAR the next couple of seasons, maybe better (he was a 6+ WAR player in 2018 and 2019).  Baez is a gigantic improvement at SS for the Tigers because we probably had some of the worst shortstops in baseball the past few years.  He will help the team be better.

Baez is a great defensive player and he's fun to watch in the field (a better version of Jose Iglesias).    His defense will really help the pitchers.   Baez is also good defensively at 2B and 3B so he has the versatility that Hinch likes.  He also seems like a decent teammate by all accounts.

I'm concerned that if Baez loses bat speed in the next few years his hacking hitting style could mean he'll be terrible if the Tigers keep him that long, but I'm hoping the Tigers let him opt out by then and/or trade him in a couple of years before he falls of a cliff.  

If Ryan Kreidler develops into a legit major league SS prospect and Cristian Santana keeps developing as hoped, we can probably let Baez go in 2-3 years before he seriously declines.  

Who knows, maybe Baez will make some adjustments as a hitter and he'll draw a few more walks and not swing at so many pitches out of the zone?  I wouldn't count on it, though.

I am looking forward to an infield of Torkelson/Schoop/Baez/Candelario next season.   They could combine for more than 100 homers.

Peter

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From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2021 9:49 PM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Baez Signing

 

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[Sean Sweda]

On Nov 30, 2021, at 9:49 PM, Michael W <miw...@gmail.com> wrote:

> But I'm not complaining. Good enough.

I guess this leaves me the task of shitting on the deal, so here goes:

The Tigers are paying market rate for a 3 WAR player, but the problem is
that player is 29 years old so the odds are he's an already declining
asset. Meaning, the Tigers are paying for 3 WAR per season but they're
likely to be getting something like 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, 1.5, 1.0, 1.0 out of the
6 years on the deal. This team is likely still 2+ years away from
contending even if you assume that NONE of
Mize/Skubal/Manning/Tork/Greene/etc. are busts, simply because they will
need time to grow them into the 3+ WAR players the Tigers need in order to
be a playoff contender. This means that Baez is unlikely to be actually be
an asset by the time the rest of the team gets good enough where he makes a
difference.

The assumption above is based on a gradual decline out of Baez, but there
are good reasons to be concerned he could drop off a cliff. His career K
rate is almost 30%. His career chase rate (% pitches swung at out of the
strike zone) is over 40% which is amongst the absolute worst in baseball.
Last year over 21% of all pitches to Baez resulted in a whiff, which was
*dead last* in MLB (2nd worst was 18.5%!). Players with this profile
rarely age well. If Baez's contact skills remain on the current
trajectory, or if the damage he does on contact starts to decline, he's no
longer going to have positive value as a hitter.

Even if Baez declined offensively he could still provide value to the team
if he maintained his defensive value at shortstop. However, Baez is
already 29 and defensive skills generally decline at an earlier age than
batting skills. Last year all of the advanced defensive metrics rated Baez
as roughly an average defender at short. This team already has a plethora
of 2B/3B options in the pipeline so moving him off SS isn't a viable
option. In order to provide value on this contract Baez needs to be at
least a net zero defender at SS with a plus bat OR a marginally useful bat
with a plus-plus glove at SS. Over the last 3 seasons only one SS has been
over 30 the whole time and consistently graded out as an excellent defender
(Crawford), so the odds are against Baez rescuing a significant offensive
decline with defensive value.

Finally, the delta of Baez/Seager contract AAV is roughly $9 million. What
is that buying you in this market? That's not going to get you a
multi-year deal for a mid-rotation SP (Gray 4/56, Matz 4/44, DeScalfani
3/36) or a low-end starting OF (A.Garcia 4/53, Canha 2/26.5). So far it's
enough to land a high-end non-closer RP (Graveman 8/24, Loup 2/17, Neris
2/17) or a take a flyer on a veteran SP (Heaney 1/8.5, Kluber 1/8, Wacha
1/7). I'm sorry, but anyone telling you the Tigers can reallocate the
"savings" and end up with A+B > C on this roster is wishcasting.

The way I see it the Tigers have almost zero margin for error with Baez on
this contract. The most deflating thing for me though, is that the guys
running the team should already know this stuff and still decided this
contract was the best way to use money to improve the team.

Sean

p.s. last summer when the Mets season was collapsing Baez thought this was
a good idea:
https://www.mlb.com/news/javier-baez-responds-to-fans-after-mets-win-over-nationals

[Peter Welch]

As Sean points out Baez is the biggest hacker in baseball.  If he loses any bat speed he could turn into Willi Castro or Ronny Rodriguez by age 35.  

This could be a Jordan Zimmermann-like bust of a signing, and there were fewer warning signs with Zimmermann when the Tigers signed him than with Baez.  Zimmermann's K rate declined the year before the Tigers signed him and that was a warning sign, but Baez has way more warning signs than Zimmermann had.

We have to hope Baez has a couple of 3-4 WAR seasons in 2022 and 2023 and opts out in 2 years or the Tigers trade him in a couple of years.  But knowing Tigers' management they'll probably extend him 5 more years if he puts up a couple of 4-5 WAR seasons.

The biggest hope with Baez is that his defense remains really good.  That will help our pitching staff.

Peter

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From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Sean Sweda <sw...@ibl.org>
Sent: Wednesday, December 1, 2021 12:58 AM

To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: Re: Baez Signing

 

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[Roger King]

Is the opt out mutual?  ie. Baez OR the Tigers can say goodbye after 2 years?

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[Peter Welch]

Baez has the option after 2 years, not the Tigers, but if he has a good 2023 season I can see him opting out to test the market.  If he decides to stay we better hope he doesn’t fall off a cliff.

Peter

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---

From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Wednesday, December 1, 2021 11:04:55 AM
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Baez Signing

 

[Steve Bielawski]

On Wednesday, December 1, 2021, 11:05:12 AM EST, Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com> wrote:

> Is the opt out mutual?  

> ie. Baez OR the Tigers can say goodbye after 2 years?

Agents rarely give the club an option to simply cancel the rest of a multi-year contact.  Agents sometimes negotiate a club buyout, in which the club has to pay a certain amount to the player if they choose not to keep the player.  It goes along with the club option, which is an option to renew the player's contract at a pre-set price.  The team has the option to pay the player either the agreed amount for another season or the buyout price.

Also, in many contracts, the club becomes obligated to pick up the option if the player meets certain agreed milestones (such as so many plate appearances, so many innings pitched, so many games played).

[JOHN BLACK]

As I mentioned in a recent post, while the Tigers do not have the 'clear' "post-2 year out" that Baez/agent have, they do a reasonably likely escape path if Baez's 1 1/2 year performance with us is anything better than 'poor' (and even Peter earlier agreed that Baez should be a "definite plus" for us during those 1st two seasons). If his various 'numerical racks' look to be 'on track' (factored into his history), but any of several listers (which may not count Roger, but is not a short list) see other esoteric signs that 'trouble is just around the corner', we do the right to *sell* the contract on-or-before whatever the new 'final date' within the season turns out to be (thus my loose use of the 1 1/2 seasons). There could easily still be teams out there (apart from his "no-trade" list) that may be looking for a 'better' SS for their own set of reasons - who view our perceived problem (a-cumin') as less important than we do. This situation actually grows steadily rosier for us the better Baez performs during the upcoming first couple of years. If (for instance) all of his 'good features' stay good (and he stays healthy) - and further, he devotes close attention to Miggy's strong advice regarding "bringing that swing angle down a bit" and being a bit more selective about the pitcher's use of the strike zone (which would very likely lead to a pleasant reduction in 'whiffs-n-Ks' together with even an increase in BBs), he might find that while his HR total sagged a bit (Comerica is probably going to do that anyway), his collection of 2B and 3B (because of his natural speed) might increase noticeably, resulting in easily measurable increases in OBP and SLG, as multipliers for a rising OPS. Any decent fraction of this might make it obvious that he was going to leap into the FA market at the end of year 2, but in this scenario the Tigers would have the opportunity (assuming they saw it) of offering the 'insider sale' opportunity to any team that was probably going to enter that bidding situation anyway. The better the 'get Baez' situation might look on paper, the better could also be the 'direct return' to the Tigers for the 'gift' the Tigers were making the other team, allowing them to effect an agreed-on contractual upgrade for those 3 remaining years on the Tiger contract.

Of course, if all this went so well, it might turn out that Baez made it clear that he would prefer to remain with the Tigers - of course with a 're-written' $$$ value on top of the (likely) extension in years. Then the list's brow-beating and teeth-gnashing could begin all over again.  😚

JtE 

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[Peter Welch]

Another scenario that some are suggesting is to when Schoop's contract runs out in 2 years the Tigers will move Baez to 2B, but if 

Baez is still an above-average defensive SS in 2 years I don't see why they would move him to 2B (assuming he doesn't opt out in 2 years anyway).  If Baez loses a lot of range at SS in the next 2 years then I could see that scenario.

This would also assume the Tigers have another decent major league shortstop ready to take over in 2 years.  Unless you think Ryan Kreidler will turn into a good major league SS I don't see that happening (unless the Tigers acquire a good SS prospect in the next 2 years.).  The Tigers have some possible future shortstops in the very low minors but they are at least 4-5 years away if they ever develop.

Peter

---

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of JOHN BLACK <bla...@comcast.net>
Sent: Monday, December 6, 2021 10:54 AM

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/1099934762.1481563.1638806087346%40connect.xfinity.com.

[Steve Bielawski]

The Tigers would have to act fairly fast--in the middle of the 2023 season--to take advantage of this situation.  That would mean that they would have to have a replacement in place by the middle of the 2023 season.  I don't think that's realistic--and apparently, neither does Peter Welch.  (Correct me if I'm wrong, Peter.)  Of course ,that could change, if the Tigers make a move.

Mind you, if the Tigers are not yet contending for a playoff spot in the middle of the 2023 season, then trading Javier Baez becomes easier.  (In that case, the fact that he is well known could help them get a good return.)  However, if the Tigers are out of contention by mid-season in 2023, they will have a serious problem on their hands.

On Monday, December 6, 2021, 10:54:52 AM EST, JOHN BLACK <bla...@comcast.net> wrote:

As I mentioned in a recent post, while the Tigers do not have the 'clear' "post-2 year out" that Baez/agent have, they do a reasonably likely escape path if Baez's 1 1/2 year performance with us is anything better than 'poor' (and even Peter earlier agreed that Baez should be a "definite plus" for us during those 1st two seasons). If his various 'numerical racks' look to be 'on track' (factored into his history), but any of several listers (which may not count Roger, but is not a short list) see other esoteric signs that 'trouble is just around the corner', we do the right to *sell* the contract on-or-before whatever the new 'final date' within the season turns out to be (thus my loose use of the 1 1/2 seasons). There could easily still be teams out there (apart from his "no-trade" list) that may be looking for a 'better' SS for their own set of reasons - who view our perceived problem (a-cumin') as less important than we do. This situation actually grows steadily rosier for us the better Baez performs during the upcoming first couple of years. If (for instance) all of his 'good features' stay good (and he stays healthy) - and further, he devotes close attention to Miggy's strong advice regarding "bringing that swing angle down a bit" and being a bit more selective about the pitcher's use of the strike zone (which would very likely lead to a pleasant reduction in 'whiffs-n-Ks' together with even an increase in BBs), he might find that while his HR total sagged a bit (Comerica is probably going to do that anyway), his collection of 2B and 3B (because of his natural speed) might increase noticeably, resulting in easily measurable increases in OBP and SLG, as multipliers for a rising OPS. Any decent fraction of this might make it obvious that he was going to leap into the FA market at the end of year 2, but in this scenario the Tigers would have the opportunity (assuming they saw it) of offering the 'insider sale' opportunity to any team that was probably going to enter that bidding situation anyway. The better the 'get Baez' situation might look on paper, the better could also be the 'direct return' to the Tigers for the 'gift' the Tigers were making the other team, allowing them to effect an agreed-on contractual upgrade for those 3 remaining years on the Tiger contract.

Of course, if all this went so well, it might turn out that Baez made it clear that he would prefer to remain with the Tigers - of course with a 're-written' $$$ value on top of the (likely) extension in years. Then the list's brow-beating and teeth-gnashing could begin all over again.  😚

JtE 

Virus-free. www.avg.com

[Cal Lord]

I hate this talk. Let’s try to enjoy him and the future Tiger success before claiming gloom and doom even before his first at bat.

Cal

Sent from my iPhone

On Dec 6, 2021, at 3:22 PM, Steve Bielawski <stevebi...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:



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