all I can say is the temperature record is accelerating upward. that
is not good news. the SLOPE is much larger than the BEST FIT SLOPE.
that means the record is accelerating upward.
I predict it will continue to do this for the near future. I think
2020 should be part of this process/
input data FROM 1990.DAT
This data is XX.XX C/100
F digits
count = 23 items.
A 12.510388064+ B 0.022569174 * DATE
F(N) = A + B*DATE = AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER TIME
no matter whether 30yr averages or over all data, the slope is small
and positive
B*30 = 0.68 average digits increase
Correl_Coef := 0.801782
countA 12 countB 11
Lower Upper
1 1992 0.26818 1990 0.11696
2 1993 0.20075 1991 0.06439
3 1996 0.08846 1994 0.05668
4 1999 0.05617 1995 0.04411
5 2000 0.13874 1997 0.18897
6 2007 0.03672 1998 0.03640
7 2008 0.03929 2001 0.08870
8 2009 0.00186 2002 0.06613
9 2010 0.02443 2003 0.10356
10 2011 0.15700 2004 0.06099
11 2012 0.02957 2005 0.15842
12 2006 0.05585
sum of squares A and B 1.14917734459823E-0001 1.71463293162333E-0001
upper SQRT(sum squareA/12) = 0.097859480
lower SQRT(sum squareB/11) = 0.124850199
upper count 12 1.04115
lower count 11 1.04115
lower count < upper count
The sums are the same because of least square algorithm.
Gaussian least squares is the line through all the points.
I X Y Y_Calc dispersion stdv
1 1990 57.54 57.42 0.11695656 1.19514799
2 1991 57.51 57.45 0.06438739 0.65795759
3 1992 57.20 57.47 -0.26818179 -2.14802851
4 1993 57.29 57.49 -0.20075096 -1.60793464
5 1994 57.57 57.51 0.05667987 0.57919649
6 1995 57.58 57.54 0.04411069 0.45075545
7 1996 57.47 57.56 -0.08845848 -0.70851693
8 1997 57.77 57.58 0.18897235 1.93105815
9 1998 57.64 57.60 0.03640317 0.37199434
10 1999 57.57 57.63 -0.05616600 -0.44986713
11 2000 57.51 57.65 -0.13873517 -1.11121308
12 2001 57.76 57.67 0.08869565 0.90635728
13 2002 57.76 57.69 0.06612648 0.67572890
14 2003 57.82 57.72 0.10355731 1.05822456
15 2004 57.80 57.74 0.06098813 0.62322149
16 2005 57.92 57.76 0.15841896 1.61884120
17 2006 57.84 57.78 0.05584978 0.57071409
18 2007 57.77 57.81 -0.03671939 -0.29410757
19 2008 57.79 57.83 -0.03928856 -0.31468562
20 2009 57.85 57.85 -0.00185774 -0.01487972
21 2010 57.85 57.87 -0.02442691 -0.19564975
22 2011 57.74 57.90 -0.15699608 -1.25747564
23 2012 57.89 57.92 -0.02956526 -0.23680585
some mean standard deviations
all data points(23) mean 57.671304 std dv 0.1909142
Yc data points(23) mean 11.241017 std dv 22.9431676
upper data points(12) mean 0.045267 std dv 0.0555092
lower data points(11) mean 0.09465 std dv 0.0853927
VAR TOTAL 9.89530235528946E-0010
MY variance = var/23 = 4.30230537186498E-0011 sqrt(var/N)=0.000006559
my coef = 1-var ->0.99999344
this works because the scatter is small in general
Intercept is 12.510388064 Sigma A is 7.345502918
Slope is 0.022569174 Sigma B is 0.003670896
program Correlation coefficient is 0.801782
My linear data is +
The data is *
Collisions are %
57.20| 57.56| 57.92|
--------------------------------------------------------
1990 18 | + * | |
1991 17 | + * | |
1992 1 | * + | |
1993 4 | * + | |
1994 20 | + * |
1995 21 | + |* |
1996 14 | * +| |
1997 31 | |+ * |
1998 24 | | + * |
1999 20 | * + |
2000 17 | * | + |
2001 31 | | + * |
2002 31 | | + * |
2003 34 | | + * |
2004 33 | | + * |
2005 40 | | + *
2006 35 | | + * |
2007 31 | | * + |
2008 32 | | * + |
2009 36 | | % |
2010 36 | | *+ |
2011 30 | | * + |
2012 38 | | *+|
--------------------------------------------------------
4 lines
| *
| *
* |* * *
* * * ** |** * ******* *
1111111111|22222222223333333333
1234567890123456789|01234567890123456789
reploted against Y_calc
Ymax 0.27 Ymin 0.19 offset 57.54 -> 57.89 -> 5.84399999999790E+0001
A small prediction : 2013 to 2020 will be the same trend
center-max center
center+max
1990 57.27| -0.27 57.54| +0.27 57.81|
2012 57.62 -0.27 57.89 +0.27 58.16
2020 57.95 -0.27 58.22 +0.27 58.49
The data is *
-0.27| -0.04| 0.19|
--------------------------------------------------------------------
---------|-----------------------------------------------------------
111111111122222222223333333333444444444455555555556
0123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890
1990 50 | + * |
1991 43 | + * |
1992 1 | * + |
1993 8 | * + |
1994 42 | + * |
1995 40 | + * |
1996 23 | * + |
1997 60 | + *
1998 39 | + * |
1999 27 | * + |
2000 16 | * + |
2001 46 | + * |
2002 43 | + * |
2003 48 | + * |
2004 43 | + * |
2005 55 | + * |
2006 42 | + * |
2007 30 | * |
2008 30 | * |
2009 34 | + * |
2010 31 | +* |
2011 14 | * + |
2012 31 | +* |
--------|-------------------------------------------------------------
111111111122222222223333333333444444444455555555556
0123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890
4 lines
|
| *
|** **
* * * * * * |** * ** ** * * * * *
process end