https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/1680gj8/covid_fears_over_new_pirola_variant_as_scientists/
Fears over new ‘Pirola’ Covid variant as scientists warns UK has ‘let
our guard down’
Jury still out on whether UK is set to face ‘a major wave’, amid hopes
expedited booster will be effective against new variant ‘Pirola’
Andy Gregory
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3 hours ago
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The UK has “let our guard down” over Covid and is “quite blind to what
is going on”, a scientist has warned as concerns grow over the new
BA.2.86 coronavirus variant.
The government brought forward its autumn Covid booster vaccine drive
this week in response to the discovery of the new variant, which has a
similar number of mutations to Omicron and Delta and was detected in the
UK and several other nations across the globe.
While scientists have welcomed the “precautionary” decision, the role
that the new variant BA.2.86 – dubbed “Pirola” – may play in the coming
months remains far from clear.
Although optimistic that the booster will offer some protection, some
virologists conceded that “we don’t know yet” whether it will provide
adequate protection in all instances as its many mutations may mean it
can evade the jab.
But with just one case confirmed in England, and another by Public
Health Scotland on Thursday, the new strain is not currently classified
as a “variant of concern”.
More concerning to scientists is the return of children to schools and
adults to offices following the summer holidays with “waning immunity”
and, said Professor Lawrence Young, “a general misplaced view that
there's is no longer a need to be worried about Covid”.
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“Sadly, this is not the case. At the moment we’ve let our guard down and
we’re quite blind to what’s going on,” said Prof Young, of the
University of Warwick.
While the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) monitoring of the virus
was wound down in March – to many epidemiologists’ dismay – the Zoe
Health Study estimates that infections spiked by nearly 200,000 cases
last month, rising to around 785,000 on 27 July. Covid-related hospital
admissions are running at their highest rate for three months.
“One way of controlling infection is to have at least some idea of where
you’re seeing particular outbreaks and might be able to introduce
precautionary measures to prevent the virus spreading further – but you
have to know where it is,” said Prof Young.
<p>‘We’re not PCR testing as much as we were previously, and not
sequencing, so it’s difficult to monitor outbreaks of infection,’ said
Prof Young </p>4
‘We’re not PCR testing as much as we were previously, and not
sequencing, so it’s difficult to monitor outbreaks of infection,’ said
Prof Young
(Danny Lawson/PA)
“This new [variant] is popping up all over the place at the moment, but
we’re not monitoring it in the population.”
The virologist added: “Now testing isn’t free and people have to buy
lateral flow tests ... if people have coughs and colds, would they go
back to work? They probably would, even if they tested positive.
“There really is an issue here – we’ve completely removed all mandatory
testing, we’ve removed the ONS survey, so we’re in quite an interesting
situation. What this is telling us is Covid hasn’t gone away.
“And even though people are really bored with it, it’s still out there,
it’s still changing – and it’s still unpredictable. With flu, however
nasty flu can be, it’s seasonal and can be predictable – Covid is
neither of those things. Not yet anyway, the hope is in the future it
will be.”
This month saw calls return for people to consider wearing face masks in
high-risk settings – likely to have been greeted in many quarters with a
considerable degree of weariness and scepticism.
But Prof Young believes the government and NHS should be putting out
recommendations on face masks in high-risk places such as hospitals, and
increasing ventilation in spaces such as schools, adding: “I can see
we’re going to be in a situation over the winter period where we’re
wearing face masks.”
<p>Some experts have advised people to consider wearing face masks in
certain settings </p>4
Some experts have advised people to consider wearing face masks in
certain settings
(AFP via Getty Images)
However, whether these factors will combine to drive “a major wave is
debatable”, Prof Young said, noting that the population’s significant
past exposure to vaccines and the virus – evident in the gradual drop in
severe cases – is working in our favour.
“My experience and the hospitals’ experience of the current variant [is]
the virus itself is not as nasty as it was in the past,” said Professor
Denis Kinane, co-founder of Covid testing firm Cignpost Diagnostics.
Prof Kinane said this can translated to mutations too.
Asked about the new variant, which the US Centres for Disease Control
estimates has around 35 mutations compared with Omicron XBB.1.5 – the
variant which the new vaccines target – he said: “The number of
mutations doesn’t correlate linearly with virulence [how harmful a virus
is], it can actually go the other way.”
<p>Hospital admissions are at their highest level in three months – but
well below March peak </p>4
Hospital admissions are at their highest level in three months – but
well below March peak
(PA/UK Health Security Agency)
“The virus is always mutating, and doesn’t really care whether it
actually is more or less virulent,” the immunologist added. “In many
respects, it’s actually better for the virus if it’s less virulent
meaning causes less illness and death. That means the virus can actually
survive and [spread] more.”
However, Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine, noted that many of the large number of mutations in
the new variant – discovered in countries including South Africa, the US
and Israel – “might be expected to help the virus evade existing immune
responses”.
As a precaution, “it makes sense, therefore, to bring forward the
planned autumn vaccination campaign to ensure that those at highest
risk” have their protection topped up, he said, noting that “it is not
yet clear whether it is replacing existing strains” in any countries
where it has been picked up.
Speaking to the Financial Times this week, Eric Topol, director of the
San Diego-based Scripps Research Translational Institute, had also
warned that the boosters might not help much against the new variant
because of its significant number of mutations.
Prof Young said that, while “we don’t know yet” whether the vaccine
booster being rolled out from 11 September will provide adequate
protection against the new Covid variant, particularly for the most
vulnerable, “the suspicion is it will”. He added: “It should be okay,
but we don’t know.”
Professor Mark Jit, of Imperial College London, was similarly hopeful.
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“We know very little about the BA.2.86 variant at the moment, but a
recent dose of a Covid vaccine like the kind used in the UK has so far
consistently provided decent protection against severe disease across
many different variants, even though protection against milder disease
has been more variable across variants,” the vaccine epidemiologist said.
He added: “It should help protect the most vulnerable people in the
country, as well as reducing the risk that the NHS becomes overstretched.”