Oly wrote, and I parphrase, that one would need to be insane to spend
over $5000 for 3c worth of copper. After all, one could buy nearly
seven oz of gold for that price, a much, much better investment in
tough times said Oly.
Yet, about two weeks ago, after tthe stock market tanked, I sold
another 1909-S VDB at the same grade and quite comparable to the one
posted here at that time for $7400, after just a few hours on eBay. As
I write this, gold has declined to $740/oz, not exactly stellar
performance considering the financial states of the world's
economies.
Yet rare coins and key coins, certified by the top grading company,
have increased in value considerably over the past two years (and
longer) with no evidence of buyers fleeing.
Now I've never sold coins as "investments." I sell them as
collectibles with a store of value. About two years ago I sold a
customer a MS-64RB 1909 VDB Matte Proof graded by PCGS. I paid $9300
for it and sold it for $9800. It had increased in value to $28,000 in
that time, and my customer, after his third try, got PCGS to grade it
Proof-65. He could now easily sell it for $55,000. Imagine, all for
just 3c in copper. The customer submitted eleven coins to PCGS
including the matte proof Lincoln, all in the PCGS slabs (not cracked
out) and three got upgrades.
Hang your head in shame, Oly.
Ira
(merely a coin "flipper.")
We are entering a down economic period that will last for years, Ira.
Before it is over, you will have to move and hide so the people you
have sold this stuff to won't be able to find you when the NEED to
resell.
oly
The rare coin market has gone thru bullish periods in the past.
Right now it seems to be in an extended bull market.
TPG Canadian coins are going thru the roof.
Meanwhile, precious metals are tanking (like almost all commodities.)
Funny thing is how much of a premium folks are paying for bullion gold
coins and junk silver on eBay.
I said perception because, while we do have a crisis in the housing and
mortgage markets, business outside the financial sector is fundamentally
sound. Yet stocks like Coca-Cola and Disney are way down. Last time I
checked, there were still millions of people drinking Coke products. Panic
in the streets, especially Wall Street isn't helping.
Bob
"RF" <inv...@invalid.invalid> wrote in message
news:gdo47c$4nb$1...@registered.motzarella.org...
Gold is being sold because it can be sold, near a continuously quoted
price, and people need cash cash cash. Because of the good price
action over the last year, many gold sellers still are selling at a
profit. Many people cannot sell their stocks, bonds, and most of the
esoteric CMO and CDO investments, without taking a loss, and some of
the stocks, bonds and derivatives cannot be sold at ANY price. Houses
are also not too liquid and their prices are often anybodies guess.
Having said that, it isn't possible to buy one ounce gold coins at
$730 and nice one ounce silver coins can't be bought at $9.50 per
ounce either.
I would rather have 5,500 one-hundred dollar bills or 70 to 75 ounces
of fine gold than one of the OP's "rare-in-this-condition" bronze and
plastic abortions. Gold will do very well in our "Paulson Bailout"
financial system.
oly
Yes, the guys on Wall Street think things are "fundamentally sound",
which is of course why the DJIA is down 36% year-to-date, much of that
loss in the last six weeks.
But it's good to work for a government contractor, no doubt. Bank
examiners are in great demand too.
oly
That's essentially correct. However, we're starting to hear news
stories about how the "trickle down theory" does work when it's bad
news. Businesses are being affected. It's not much of a blip on the
economists' scope yet, but all that most people need is one or two
anecdotes about people they know losing jobs or shutting down their
businesses before they join the panic stampede.
I would rather have 5,500 one-hundred dollar bills or 70 to 75 ounces
of fine gold than one of the OP's "rare-in-this-condition" bronze and
plastic abortions. Gold will do very well in our "Paulson Bailout"
financial system.
Gold is tanking right now and, if it drops anymore like it did today,
panic selling may start.
I suspect the "Paulson Bailout" will eventually turn out to be wildly
inflationary as the gubmint cranks out FRNs to cover its debts.
Such a scenario should be good for gold and silver.
Speaking of dropping PM prices, I wonder if the US Mint will now LOWER
the prices of its products as quickly as they raised them?
Physical gold and silver coins are "insurance, on sale" right now.
oly
...
< Yes, the guys on Wall Street think things are "fundamentally sound",
which is of course why the DJIA is down 36% year-to-date, much of that
loss in the last six weeks.
Which is essentially meaningless. Taken over the whole market, the
change in stock prices mostly is the result of what people think the
market will do, not how the individual underlying companies themselves
are doing as business operations. The same can be true for
commodities like PMs. Oil is down to about half its peak. Does
anyone think that the consumption of oil has dropped by half in the
past six months?
The economy is in fact hurting, but the DJIA and even the broader
indices are not accurate indicators of current economic activity. To
refute the "fundamentally sound" assessment, oly, you're going to need
more than a simple stock index. We'll have to wait for months to get
all those complicated, boring numbers that make economics the dismal
science.
Meanwhile, people will buy/sell gold and silver and oil and soy beans
based on what they think will happen. These expectations often don't
track the actual future (or even the current) supply and demand.
Don
Wishful thinking! That would be Warren Buffet territory. If the Mint did
that, it would REALLY get into trouble, supply-wise. Just like that barrel
of crude today lowering to $67 and gasoline averaging $2.88. The last time
oil was on the upswing at $67, a gallon of gas was less than $2.00.
____________
Not bad being a retired Fed govt employee, either. No worries about being
laid off, a secure pension and health benefits, and a relatively nice 5.8%
COL raise next year. Being old enough to have learned how to adapt and
sacrifice during hard times is coming in handy today. Too many of the
contractors I once envied for their lofty salaries and benefits back in my
work years are now laid off or have had their pensions/benefits reduced and
even eliminated. Something to be said for that tortoise and hare fable.
I don't think he mentioned a 1909 "S" VDB.
And the price was $55,000, IIRC.
In Ira's original post he described a 1909-S VDB which he sold for $5200.
The $55,000 price was in regard to a 1909 VDB matte proof.
As for the above questions, the coin's value is whatever people are willing
to pay for it. In this case, the 1909-S VDB has an established price
history in its various conditions, and that's theoretically what it should
be worth. The variables mentioned have long ago been factored into the
price.
The fact that it's just a piece of bronze with a $5,000 price tag has no
more bearing than the shiny hunk of carbon with a $100,000 price tag or the
piece of canvas covered with a couple bucks worth of pigment with a $5
million tag.
I stand corrected, after becoming somewhat stupified by an array of
numbers while being drawn into Ira's hit piece in praise of selling high
end 1909 Lincoln cents.
Here's the numbers:
A couple
MS-65
1909S
$5200
one
$5000
3c
one
seven
two
1909-S
one
$7400
few
$740/oz
two
two
MS-64RB
1909
$9300
$9800
$28,000
third
Proof-65
$55,000
3c
eleven
three
Before signing his missive, Ira's number references were about 10% of
all words typed. You don't need to be a postmodern deconstructionist to
understand where his head is at.
Ira is a fish; he doesn't realize that he is underwater.
When there is a period of long prosperity, steady monetary inflation,
and very very easy credit, ABSURD THINGS can become stores of value.
The question (for a buyer) is, is this value permanent or temporary?
Is the expensive collectable something that is a fad, or something
that could fail in popularity as the present generation passes (this
is a real concern for American coins, BTW).
When the economic environment changes, will the values hold up???
When the economic environment changes, do the ABSURD THINGS have any
practical value???
William Woodin is a good example for present-day coin collectors to
keep in mind, should we be headed into a period of economic winter.
No Ira, you don't need to "ping" Mr. Woodin - he died in 1934.
oly
But it's a smaller loss than expected
so it's "well actually" almost a gain. It's not
Hankies fault that wallstreet can't see his
sparkling Goldman talent in action. They should
try popping more Prozac while mumbling repeatedly
"All that we see or seem is but a dream within
a dream."--Edgar Allan Poe
They should also be nice to any ravens they see while
repeating that; they might be Goldman "talent" incognito,
awaiting Hank to reanimate them for a post in the
wallpaper department.
But it's good to work for a government contractor, no doubt. Bank
examiners are in great demand too.
oly
Goldman probably does that too. :)
The prices Ira quotes are NOT "long ago" factored into the "value"
equation - the coin market phenomena he is playing is maybe 20 years
old at most - it is largely post-1990 anyway.
Diamonds, while obviously supported in price by a cartel, can oft' be
used to coax the favors of women at least. That is a kind of
practical value. No excuse for modern art, however.
oly
Think things are business as normal??? Hey, listen to The Northern
Trust Company of Chicago:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11645.htm
oly
> Now I've never sold coins as "investments." I sell them as
> collectibles with a store of value. About two years ago I sold a
> customer a MS-64RB 1909 VDB Matte Proof graded by PCGS. I paid $9300
> for it and sold it for $9800. It had increased in value to $28,000 in
> that time, and my customer, after his third try, got PCGS to grade it
> Proof-65. He could now easily sell it for $55,000.
Five years ago, I wrote about the 1909-S VDB: "Am I the only one who
feels that this is the most overpriced U.S. coin out there? I'd
rather have a 1909 V.D.B. matte proof -- you get genuine scarcity and
a better story to tell."
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.collecting.coins/msg/311307198d5dff30?hl=en
Well, I was half-right. But for some reason, my wife doesn't like
me spending money on copper.
--
Michael Benveniste -- m...@murkyether.com (Clarification required)
Cogito eggo sum (I'm thinking waffles).
Well ... it used to be "a secure pension". If you are a recent (since
the mid-80s) employee, you are in the new FRS plan (not CSRS). That
is, basically, social security and a government administered 401k
plan.
In normal times, I will admit that the Federal "Thrift Savings Plan"
is a great deal, simply because there is a contribution matching
provision up to a certain percentage. That's a big advantage.
oly
Dealers don't set coin values, collectors do, but Oly will never be able to
understand this. Billy
"Donald Weber" <dwe...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:TZmdnXZvjvjeJmLV...@earthlink.com...
*************
With 1909-S-VDB "variables", I was thinking of the available supply and
number of collector's seeking this particular coin, not its price. Same
would apply to most other key coins in a series. The demand and values for
scarce coins has been pretty consistent in the 50+ years I've been
collecting. Collectibles often are priced independent of what they happen
to be made of. That Honus Wagner tobacco card comes to mind.
*************
Diamonds, while obviously supported in price by a cartel, can oft' be
used to coax the favors of women at least. That is a kind of
practical value. No excuse for modern art, however.
****************
I'd bet lots of women would rather have the $100,000 cash rather than a
diamond valued at that. As for art, modern or classic, there's no rhyme nor
reason for the prices it can fetch, IMO.
Nah, I began in 1962 in the military and then entered govt service. I
retired under CSRS at about 80% of my salary. A secure pension as long as
the govt survives. I'm betting it does while I'm still alive.
That's only true in no-minimum-bid auctions. Otherwise, it takes two
to tango. Any price is possible *provided that* you have both a
willing buyer *and* a willing seller. That's where perception
dominates the market. If buyers perceive that the average asking
price is too high, they can hold out and force the price down. If
dealers smell a windfall in the making, they're going to hold out and
drive the average sale price up. In between there are an infinite
number of combinations between the two. So neither buyers nor sellers
by themselves set prices, which represent the equilibrium point
between these two opposing forces.
> "Donald Weber" <dwe...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
> news:TZmdnXZvjvjeJmLV...@earthlink.com...
>> Here's a question I'd like to see some opinion's on.
>> If a rare coin such as the 1909 S VDB mentioned by Ira sells in the
>> current market at around let's say $5,000 and Oly thinks that's way
>> over priced for a piece of bronze in a plastic holder...
>> Then what should it be worth? Taking into account:
>> - Age of the coin
>> - It's Condition
>> - Number of collectors seeking it
>> - And any other variable that may be part of the question.
The IRS defines market value as what a willing buyer would pay a
willing seller in an arm's-length transaction (not a bogus "insider"
sale). That definition is fairy precise but it still leaves a lot of
room for variability in prices - highest and lowest recorded, the
average selling price and the median.
No single individual represents the market for a coin, so if someone
says "it's not worth that much" all he can correctly assert is that "I
wouldn't pay that much". He might be of the opinion that "anyone who
pays that much is a fool" but that's just his opinion. And the
opinion should be directed at the price - which is a market function -
and not at the nature of the item, which is a philosophical question.
What is the value of a scrap of metal and plastic, or a piece of paper
with a president's portrait and a denomination printed on it? What is
the sound of one hand clapping?
A lot of factors go into answering the question of whether that coin
is worth that much to you, but the relevant questions when considering
just the price are "What are others selling for right now?" and if the
money aspect is important to you, "Will this coin hold its current
value? Go up? Go down?" So go figure.
Ah the arrogance of money...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=ay8btJAb053s&refer=home
The proof of the pudding is in the eating, not in the blarney of boney-
assed old carnival barkers.
oly
...
<Ah the arrogance of money...
<
<
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=ay8btJAb053s&refer=home
<
<The proof of the pudding is in the eating, not in the blarney of
boney-assed old carnival barkers.
Since I don't run in the rarefied atmosphere of big-ticket coin
auctions, I'll plead ignorance here. Do any of the major coin auction
houses offer price guarantees? If so, how are they holding up?
I believe they will guarantee to deliver an item at the winning bidder's
price. Beyond that.....?? Otherwise, I wonder how such a guarantee would
be structured, who would administer it, and how long it would be good for.
After all, aren't most auction houses simply "venues"?
According to oly's linked story, apparently the primo art auction
houses will (maybe for some consideration) guarantee a minimum selling
price. If the winning bid is less, the house pays the difference.
That's for the high rollers. Your local countryside auctions held in
fire houses and tobacco warehouses are "just venues".
My fault for not reading the article. Here I was thinking along the lines
of somehow guaranteeing the future (minimum) value/price of a coin for the
buyer. I like the old barn auctions better. I recall in the early 1950's
buying huge old working console radios for $1.50 at auctions like that.
Nobody else but maybe a kid wanted them anymore at that time. Wish I'd kept
one or two of them instead of "modifying" them for my own whims.
Buyer thinks the price is fair, a sale occurs.
Buyer thinks the price is too high, no sale occurs. Billy
"mazorj" <maz...@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:UL4Mk.3326$r_3....@nwrddc02.gnilink.net...
Seller thinks current market price is fair, a sale occurs.
Seller thinks current market price is too low, no sale occurs.
It seems that the "consideration" for the guarantee is that the primo
auction house gets some big name art/ high dollar to headline their
sales. Kinda like how any sale with a genuine 1804 U.S. Silver Dollar
is a headline sale. Perhaps the auction house's commission rate is
more, to compensate for the risk. I don't know about that.
My point is several fold: Sotheby's is wildly liquid compared to
anybody in the coin business; Sotheby's is probably very well-
capitalized compared to anybody in the coin business (even if
Sotheby's is very leveraged too, as suggested by its return on equity
of 47%); Sotheby's last two big sales have only brought in slightly
over 50% of their pre-sale estimates. These events were expected to
bring in 200 million dollars and 500 million dollars, respectively.
Actual receipts seem to have been 95 million dollars and 285 million
dollars.
If there was 200 million floating around at a single coin show, the
Bachnalia would exceed the shennanigans that used to happen in the
late 1970s and early 1980s.
But, when the rich get a cold, the middle class likely gets
pneumonia. Not great for selling Lincoln pennies. Winter is coming.
oly
If the seller sets their prices unrealistically high there will be no sale
until they come down to a price acceptable to the buyer. Billy
"mazorj" <maz...@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:IOnMk.59$Jv...@nwrddc01.gnilink.net...
No matter what the buyer thinks of the price, if the seller disagrees
there will be no sale. Neither side is "king".
> If the seller sets their prices unrealistically high there will be
> no sale until they come down to a price acceptable to the buyer.
> Billy
If the buyer sets his offered prices unrealistically low or refuses to
buy at the seller's price, there will be no sale until the buyer is
willing to meet a price acceptable to the seller.
You just don't get it, do you? It takes two to tango, ride a see-saw,
or strike a price on a transaction. When you were at the Long Beach
show, did you try offering a dealer a dollar for a 1909-S VDB? If so,
how far did you get "setting the market"? If not, why not? After
all, as a buyer you're the "king".
If any single person has a prayer of "setting the coin market" it's a
seller. Read up on what happened with some of the commemorative
halves in the 1930s. When you control virtually all of the supply,
you can set the going price.
The one variable here seems to be where the impetus for a sale resides. Is
an eager buyer trying to convince the owner of an item to part with it by
gradually upping the offer, or is the owner trying to entice buyers for his
item by gradually lowering the price or reserve? In each case, it would
seem there is a different "king" calling the shots.
That means that when summed up over the entire market gamut (eager
buyers and not so eager buyers, motivated sellers and
take-it-or-leave-it sellers) both sides are "king" - which validates
my point that neither side by itself is king. In this alternate
version, it just takes two kings to tango.
BTW, I did try Bloom's assorted beer/ale sampler 6-pack. It works out
to about a 20-25% price premium, not bad considering you're only going
to do it once or twice to see if any of them tickle your taste buds.
I did find one worth getting a 6-pack next time (can't remember which
one right now).
(Which, come to think of it, was an example of the dual buyer/seller
role in a purchase. Bloom set a premium price because it could. I
wanted to try it so I was willing to pay Bloom's premium price - once.
I'll go back to buying by the 6-pack or the case, and Bloom will
continue to sell the sampler 6-packs to others. Like life, markets go
on at their own pace regardless of what any individual buyer or seller
does.)
It seemed to me that in my first case an indifferent owner/seller would be
in control as "king", leaving it up to an eager buyer to make an offer he
couldn't refuse. In the latter case, the buyer would be the ultimate
"king", waiting for the seller to make the price attractive enough to jump
on. Either way, nothing to base a campaign argument on.
>
> BTW, I did try Bloom's assorted beer/ale sampler 6-pack. It works out to
> about a 20-25% price premium, not bad considering you're only going to do
> it once or twice to see if any of them tickle your taste buds. I did find
> one worth getting a 6-pack next time (can't remember which one right now).
>
> (Which, come to think of it, was an example of the dual buyer/seller role
> in a purchase. Bloom set a premium price because it could. I wanted to
> try it so I was willing to pay Bloom's premium price - once. I'll go back
> to buying by the 6-pack or the case, and Bloom will continue to sell the
> sampler 6-packs to others. Like life, markets go on at their own pace
> regardless of what any individual buyer or seller does.)
So it sounds like I should stick with Total Beverage. Their 350+ different
brands of micro should hold my interest, though I'm still partial to their
Genny Cream Ale as my "drinkin' beer", even as the $11.99 price has crept up
now to $13.99 per 30-pack. That amount would only buy me two 6-packs of
most micros-- a treat reserved only for special occasions like weekdays or
evenings.
I think our only difference is that my characterization is the
"general theory of relativity in buyer/seller market power," which
applies to all buyers and sellers, whereas you're invoking the limited
"special theory" case of a hot-to-trot buyer or seller.
>> BTW, I did try Bloom's assorted beer/ale sampler 6-pack. It works
>> out to about a 20-25% price premium, not bad considering you're
>> only going to do it once or twice to see if any of them tickle your
>> taste buds. I did find one worth getting a 6-pack next time (can't
>> remember which one right now).
>>
>> (Which, come to think of it, was an example of the dual
>> buyer/seller role in a purchase. Bloom set a premium price because
>> it could. I wanted to try it so I was willing to pay Bloom's
>> premium price - once. I'll go back to buying by the 6-pack or the
>> case, and Bloom will continue to sell the sampler 6-packs to
>> others. Like life, markets go on at their own pace regardless of
>> what any individual buyer or seller does.)
>
> So it sounds like I should stick with Total Beverage. Their 350+
> different brands of micro should hold my interest, though I'm still
> partial to their Genny Cream Ale as my "drinkin' beer", even as the
> $11.99 price has crept up now to $13.99 per 30-pack. That amount
> would only buy me two 6-packs of most micros-- a treat reserved only
> for special occasions like weekdays or evenings.
Go with whatever works for you. Even in these economic times, a man's
gotta keep his priorities straight.
Still, with all those varieties, Total Beverage could do worse than to
market a You Pick 'Em sampler 6-pack. At 350 divided by 6, customers
could come back almost 60 times without repeating a bottle. At a 25%
mark-up premium, that could be a real revenue enhancer.
Although they don't put together their own mixed 6-packs, they do have a
display shelf section with loose straggler singles from various micro
6-packs. Priced individually, talk about a revenue enhancer!
I'm sure this particular "big box" booze store, or ones just like it, are
all around the country now. Ours used to be called Total Beer, then Total
Beverage, now it's Total Wine. It always was about 75% wine, 20% beer, and
the rest cigars, soft drinks, and misc. No coins, though, except in the
register.
...
>> Still, with all those varieties, Total Beverage could do worse than
>> to market a You Pick 'Em sampler 6-pack. At 350 divided by 6,
>> customers could come back almost 60 times without repeating a
>> bottle. At a 25% mark-up premium, that could be a real revenue
>> enhancer.
>
> Although they don't put together their own mixed 6-packs, they do
> have a display shelf section with loose straggler singles from
> various micro 6-packs. Priced individually, talk about a revenue
> enhancer!
>
> I'm sure this particular "big box" booze store, or ones just like
> it, are all around the country now. Ours used to be called Total
> Beer, then Total Beverage, now it's Total Wine.
There's a Total Wine about 15 minutes from me, too.
> It always was about 75% wine, 20% beer, and the rest cigars, soft
> drinks, and misc. No coins, though, except in the register.
With their seemingly endless "big box" aisles of wine, beer, and
cigars, coins would just be gilding the lily!
If you can locate Summit Pale Ale where you live give it a try.
Sounds like just one among hundreds of pale ales lately, but I'll keep a
look out for it. Who brews it? Do you get a commission? If not, can I get
one?
>>
>> If you can locate Summit Pale Ale where you live give it a try.
>
> Sounds like just one among hundreds of pale ales lately, but I'll keep a
> look out for it. Who brews it? Do you get a commission? If not, can I
> get one?
Summit Brewing company in St. Paul brews it. I am not affiliated; I just
think it deserves mention. Try and and let me know if you think it is just
one among hundreds.