Situational Awareness

[John Clark]

Leopold Aschenbrenner was fired in April from OpenAI for leaking information about the company to the press. He also wrote a paper called "Situational Awareness" about the state of artificial intelligence now and what we can expect from it during the next 3 to 5 years; it's the most brilliant analysis of the subject that I have ever seen.  

Situational Awareness

If Aschenbrenner is correct, and I'm almost certain he is, in about a year every single one of the political issues that today we think are SOOO important and will determine who will be the next president (illegal immigration, global warming, high gas prices, and even excessive wokeness) are going to seem pretty damn trivial in about a year compared with the overwhelming importance of AI.

Aschenbrenner also gave a 4 1/2 hour interview that I wish every politician and business leader in the country would watch. Aschenbrenner is only 21 and he looks like he's 15, but he's obviously smart as hell.

Leopold Aschenbrenner - 2027 AGI, China/US Super-Intelligence Race

 John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

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[John Clark]

Sabine Hossenfelder came out with a video attempting to discredit Leopold Aschenbrenner. She failed. 

Is the Intelligence-Explosion Near? A Reality Check

I wrote this in the comment section of the video: 

"You claim that AI development will slow because we will run out of data, but synthetic data is already being used to train AIs and it actually works! AlphaGo was able to go from knowing nothing about the most complicated board game in the world called "GO" to being able to play it at a superhuman level in just a few hours by using synthetic data, it played games against itself. As for power, during the last decade the total power generation of the US has remained flat, but during that same decade the power generation of China has not, in just that same decade China constructed enough new power stations to equal power generated by the entire US. So a radical increase in electrical generation capacity is possible, the only thing that's lacking is the will to do so. When it becomes obvious to everybody that the first country to develop a super intelligent computer will have the capability to rule the world there will be a will to build those power generating facilities as fast as humanly possible. Perhaps they will use natural gas, perhaps they will use nuclear fission."   

  John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

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