The reason Trump is going to win

[John Clark]

For some strange reason that I don't pretend to understand most people believe everything Trump says regardless of how batshit crazy it is, now Trump is claiming Biden is trying to assassinate him, and I'm sure tens of millions of people will believe him. But lies about the economy, not about assassinations, are what is going to cause Trump to win the next (and last) presidential election and become Führer of America for life:

A recent Harris poll indicates that the American public is ignorant about economic reality 

55% of Americans believe the economy is shrinking, but in reality the economy is increasing.

49% believe unemployment is at a 50-year high, but in reality unemployment is at a 50 year low.

72% believe inflation is increasing, but in reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and it's now about 3.4% .

49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, but in reality it went up 24% in 2023 and 12% so far this year, so now it's at an all-time high.

Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

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[Stuart LaForge]

It is not so strange when one considers that for low wage workers and people on fixed income, who don't typically own stocks or participate in the wider economy, the only economic indicators that matter are the price of rent, food, and fuel. All have risen extraordinarily high under Biden's watch, despite the wider economy doing well. If the poor feel squeezed, they will put Trump into office.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440254/cpi-rent-primary-residence-usa/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/food-prices-grocery-inflation-biden-economy/

All have risen extraordinarily high under Biden's watch, despite the wider economy doing well. If the poor feel squeezed, then they could put Trump into office.

Stuart LaForge

[John Clark]

On Tue, May 28, 2024 at 8:14 AM Stuart LaForge <stuart....@gmail.com> wrote:

> the only economic indicators that matter are the price of rent, food, and fuel. All have risen extraordinarily high under Biden's watch,

The Covid pandemic, which Trump bungled, caused huge economic disruption throughout the world, but the US has recovered during the post Covid period MUCH faster and better than any other large economy in the world.  

> It is not so strange

It's not only strange, it's STUPID. 

>  If the poor feel squeezed, they will put Trump into office.

That's probably true but it would be illogical for anybody to believe that Trump, of all people, will even try to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in this country which is not only huge it is accelerating. When he was president he did everything in his power to increase that acceleration, and that's one reason why Trump is a jerk. 

By the way, I doubt if anybody noticed but there was a joke hidden in that last sentence, it's not very funny but it is very nerdy. 

John K Clark

ivn

[Keith Henson]

I understand what is going on, but to explain it takes evolutionary psychology.

There is great reluctance for most people to consider that we have
psychological traits selected in the stone age that influence us
today.

Keith

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[Lawrence Crowell]

One has to remember that t'Rump is not a politician in the usual sense; he is a national messiah. Don-the-Con is seen by many as a sort of political savior, and there are even those claiming some religious aspects to the t'Rump cult. This has a definite cult quality to it.

It is easy to blame the under educated for a lot of this, but sadly in the exurbia here are many people who are somewhat on affluent side, often small business owners, who in some cases have a measure of education and many are aligned with t'Rump.  Think of the college students in the 70s, 80s, 90s, on the conservative side of things, such as college republicans, who have tracked their political affiliation all the way into the t'Rump swamp. 

I will say that I do not think t'Rump is likely to win. If you are following this it is evident that t'Rump is becoming senile. He always tended to say gibberish and nonsensical things, but of late it is becoming evident that he is unable to make any coherent statement or thought. His base is going to shrink, where those more on the fringes of this cult may simply give up on him. A neighbor who was a diehard t'Rumpian removed his t'Rump banners and flags and confided to me that he lost any belief in t'Rump. Or course we never know for sure, and things can rapidly change.

To be honest what really worries me more than 2024 is 2028. I think if Biden wins in 24, which I think is around 60-70% probable, that in 28 the GOP will be coming back with vengeance on their mind. They may also have a presidential candidate who carries the t'Rump mantle, is younger and a lot more actually vicious.

LC

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[John Clark]

On Tue, May 28, 2024 at 4:19 PM Lawrence Crowell <goldenfield...@gmail.com> wrote:

 > I do not think t'Rump is likely to win.

I don't think you're right but I sure hope you are!  

> To be honest what really worries me more than 2024 is 2028.

2028? Wow, you do think ahead! 2028 will be a very different world, about the only thing I'm confident in predicting that far in the future is that if he wins in 2024 then on January 20, 2029 Trump will NOT voluntarily leave office regardless of what the Constitution says, he will have to be dragged out of the oval office kicking and screaming.  

 > the t'Rump cult. This has a definite cult quality to it.

I can't imagine why you would say that.  

 

John K Clark

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Tue, May 28, 2024 at 3:38 PM John Clark <johnk...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tue, May 28, 2024 at 4:19 PM Lawrence Crowell <goldenfield...@gmail.com> wrote:

 > I do not think t'Rump is likely to win.

The polls showing t'Rump with a lead have been polling people who are largely uncommitted. For some reason there is this curious bias. Watch some videos of his rallies. They are not heavily attended and in some of these videos people are seen leaving.

 

I don't think you're right but I sure hope you are!  

> To be honest what really worries me more than 2024 is 2028.

2028? Wow, you do think ahead! 2028 will be a very different world, about the only thing I'm confident in predicting that far in the future is that if he wins in 2024 then on January 20, 2029 Trump will NOT voluntarily leave office regardless of what the Constitution says, he will have to be dragged out of the oval office kicking and screaming.  

I give it even odds that t'Rump will not even be alive then. He is morbidly obese, he looks pallid and sickly, there are videos of him nearly falling down or unable to stand. I think the grim reaper is close at his side.

LC

 

 > the t'Rump cult. This has a definite cult quality to it.

I can't imagine why you would say that.  

 

John K Clark

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[Stuart LaForge]

That image would have been far more impactful before the age of generative AI. I got your bad joke about Trump being a jerk. Let's just hope his equations of motion are not so smooth that he snaps, crackles, and pops to Main Street this November.

Stuart LaForge