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| A Dyson sphere might help capture all available energy - The Oklahoman In 2015, astronomer Tabetha “Tabby” Boyajian discovered a star that displayed light dips of up to 22 percent. Astronomers dubbed it Tabby's Star.
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> The thing that kicked me over from "don't know, but it must be natural" to "it is aliens" was the astronomers finding 24 blinking stars in a cluster. The closest one is 511 lightyears from here.
Anders would probably tell you that it would depend upon your Bayesian priors. So if you believe that life started de novo here on earth via abiogenesis, then the odds would be rather low.
On the other hand if you believe in panspermia or panbiogenesis, then the odds would be really high since the life would have had to drift here from other stars frozen inside of comets or whatnot. Since that would have taken millions of years even for the closest of stars, then the odds that inhabited star systems would cluster would be much higher. Here is a map of your blinking stars. The star labelled E is our sun and the start labelled T is Tabby's star.
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>> 511 light years is next door astronomically speaking, there must be millions of stars like that in the Milky Way alone, but we can only see the closest ones; our solar system probably looked like that for millions of years during the time after the sun formed but before the planets did.
> Kepler found only one star that acted this way.
> We could see this kind of blink for a very long distance.
> a dust cloud in thermal equilibrium
> would be about 210 K and not the measured 65 K.
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> In any case, dust clouds just will not account for it because they don't last very long.
> The dust is blown out by light pressure like a comet tail.
On Sun, Aug 11, 2024 at 11:05 AM Stuart LaForge <stuart....@gmail.com> wrote:Anders would probably tell you that it would depend upon your Bayesian priors. So if you believe that life started de novo here on earth via abiogenesis, then the odds would be rather low.Why would you say this? It's just one of a bunch of factors.
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> The problem with "dust" theories is that Tabby's star is supposed to be a main sequence Type F star that has been around for hundreds of millions of years. There is no evidence of any protoplanetary disk and any such primordial planet forming dust should have coalesced or blown away long ago.
> Tabby's star has dimmed by 15% between 1890 and 1989. In addition, the Kepler mission determined that its average brightness dimmed about 4% between 2009 and 2013. So any dust cloud has to be getting bigger and darker and not coalescing or blowing away.
This is not likely to be a Dyson sphere. It is always best to consider the most probable explanation first. This likely is due to some strange configuration of dust clouds or lanes around this star. Without getting into any Bayesian analysis it is not hard to see this, say a strange array of dust clouds, is more probable than a Dyson sphere.
Our experience with technological systems is that they generally last at most a few decades, some bigger ones maybe a century or so. A Dyson sphere dwarfs by many orders of magnitude anything we have ever built.I would tend to think that a Dyson sphere would take a very long time period to build and to get the benefit from it would have to run for a very long time.


What we are finding about planets is that they come in a vast diversity of physical and chemical forms. Extrasolar planet data on nearly 4000 planets indicates that very few have any possible analogous conditions we find on Earth. It is quite possible that life is fairly common, but planets with complex life in an extremely complex network like we see on Earth are probably quite exceptional. Then given that Earth has had us as technological beings for 2 centuries, a little over one century with radio technology, over the course of 4 billion years this is a Bayesian prior that suggests technically capable intelligent life is extremely rare.
I think the speed of light is a firm invariant that we, nor can any other ETI, can circumvent. Warp drives and the like are science fiction. This is even with the Alcubierre warp drive that is a solution to the Einstein field equation. If you warp faster than light it is completely unstable. The closest ETI may be on the other side of the Virgo cluster some 50 million light years away.
That would be far too distant to communicate between and transport is virtually impossible. We are then FAPP alone. This is far more probable than invoking some practice or scheme that putative ETIs would engage in. We have no idea whether all possible ETIs would be utterly silent and noninterventionist, or there is a dark forest or some other agenda. Different ETs probably think and act in radically divergently different ways.
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> Opposable thumbs or similarly dextrous appendages are also necessary. How many brilliant dolphin philosophers have died in obscurity for lack of the physical ability to write down their thought
> How do you explain the existence of a near perfect hexagon around Tabby's star but not around the other stars in the telescope's field of view?

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I have a feeling that during the discovery of electricitt, or atoms, or quantum mechanics, John and Lawrence would have been the ones to say “That’s bullshit, nothing ever changes.” Or heliocentrism, or the scientific method “That’s bullshit, it’s God.” I think the “that’s bullshit” people are important. It usually is bullshit. But sometimes it’s not. And without the “maybe it’s not bullshit” people, we would make ni advancements, ever.You can think of the it’s bullshit people like the force of death, yin, natural selection, providing pressure for dumb ideas to die. And the hopefuls are yang-like burgeoning infinite life, and the truth rises to the top like cream.So I do appreciate the curmudgeonly nature of you two, in a way. Just could never be me.
--On Thu, Aug 15, 2024 at 8:32 AM John Clark <johnk...@gmail.com> wrote:--On Wed, Aug 14, 2024 at 8:43 PM Stuart LaForge <stuart....@gmail.com> wrote:> Opposable thumbs or similarly dextrous appendages are also necessary. How many brilliant dolphin philosophers have died in obscurity for lack of the physical ability to write down their thoughtDolphins can't write down their thoughts and they can't speak their thoughts either because they don't have a language, or if they do it's data transmission rate must be much much lower than English. I also think it would be much harder for a sea based animal to develop a technological civilization. We were able to look into the sky and discover Newtonian mechanics but a dolphin doesn't have that advantage. And a dolphin would say that "an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force" was not just wrong it was utterly ridiculous, any fool can see that if you start pushing an object it will stop moving immediately. As for quantum mechanics, I don't think it was a coincidence that it was discovered at about the same time as our ability to produce high-quality vacuums was invented, and developing a vacuum in the sea would be much more difficult than in the air. Also, fire is important in technology but you can't have fire underwater.> How do you explain the existence of a near perfect hexagon around Tabby's star but not around the other stars in the telescope's field of view?Almost certainly because a great deal of magnification was used and, because of the construction of the James Webb telescope (more specifically because of the struts that hold its secondary mirror in place), it always produces 6 diffraction spikes around bright objects. And Tabby's star was by far the brightest object in that 5.9 hour long photographic exposure. By the way, you can always tell the difference between a Hubble telescope photograph and a Janes Webb photograph, due to differences in their construction Hubble produces 4 diffraction spikes but Webb makes 6.For me the six sided hurricane surrounding Saturn's north pole is much stranger (see below), it's got me stumped, but I don't think ET is involved with that either. There is no disgrace in saying "I don't know" but proposing a theory that is almost certainly wrong ....John K Clark
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> I do appreciate the curmudgeonly nature of you two, in a way. Just could never be me.
On Wed, Aug 14, 2024 at 8:43 PM Stuart LaForge <stuart....@gmail.com> wrote:> Opposable thumbs or similarly dextrous appendages are also necessary. How many brilliant dolphin philosophers have died in obscurity for lack of the physical ability to write down their thoughtDolphins can't write down their thoughts and they can't speak their thoughts either because they don't have a language, or if they do it's data transmission rate must be much much lower than English.
I also think it would be much harder for a sea based animal to develop a technological civilization. We were able to look into the sky and discover Newtonian mechanics but a dolphin doesn't have that advantage. And a dolphin would say that "an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force" was not just wrong it was utterly ridiculous, any fool can see that if you start pushing an object it will stop moving immediately.
As for quantum mechanics, I don't think it was a coincidence that it was discovered at about the same time as our ability to produce high-quality vacuums was invented, and developing a vacuum in the sea would be much more difficult than in the air. Also, fire is important in technology but you can't have fire underwater.
> How do you explain the existence of a near perfect hexagon around Tabby's star but not around the other stars in the telescope's field of view?Almost certainly because a great deal of magnification was used and, because of the construction of the James Webb telescope (more specifically because of the struts that hold its secondary mirror in place), it always produces 6 diffraction spikes around bright objects.




And Tabby's star was by far the brightest object in that 5.9 hour long photographic exposure. By the way, you can always tell the difference between a Hubble telescope photograph and a Janes Webb photograph, due to differences in their construction Hubble produces 4 diffraction spikes but Webb makes 6.
For me the six sided hurricane surrounding Saturn's north pole is much stranger (see below), it's got me stumped, but I don't think ET is involved with that either. There is no disgrace in saying "I don't know" but proposing a theory that is almost certainly wrong ....
> John, here you are just proving my point that there can be intelligent and social animals that are unlikely to evolve a technological civilization despite using water and air as tools every day. And yeah, fire is hard for a dolphin.
> Did you even look at the metadata?
> That was not a 5.9 hour long exposure, that was a 133 second exposure.
> why hasn't my tax-dollar funded space telescope and research grants produced a publication in a publish or perish academic environment after over a year?
>>> why hasn't my tax-dollar funded space telescope and research grants produced a publication in a publish or perish academic environment after over a year?
>> In your previous post you said you understood the answer to that question, you said "I understand why they are reluctant to publish". So what is the answer?
> Simple. The astronomers doing the study don't know what to write.
> It is possible that the government has classified their research for national security,
> but if that is the case, then why would the raw data still be available in their camera feed?
On Thu, Aug 15, 2024 at 11:28 PM Stuart LaForge <stuart....@gmail.com> wrote:> John, here you are just proving my point that there can be intelligent and social animals that are unlikely to evolve a technological civilization despite using water and air as tools every day. And yeah, fire is hard for a dolphin.Whenever I say that I think we are the only intelligent species in the observable universe I always make sure to add that I am operationally defining "intelligence" as the ability to make a radio telescope.> Did you even look at the metadata?No I did not.> That was not a 5.9 hour long exposure, that was a 133 second exposure.OK, I stand corrected. However I still say it is a photographic artifact caused by either the struts supporting the secondary mirror or the 18 smaller hexagonal mirrors that make up the primary mirror. But whatever you're looking at in that picture it certainly can't be a Dyson sphere, I say that for the following reason:The angular size of a hypothetical Dyson sphere with a radius of 1 AU around Tabby's Star, which is 1470 light years from Earth, would be 0.0044 arcseconds. However the James Webb Space Telescope is an infrared telescope that can detect very tiny amounts of heat, but it was never designed to have great resolving capacity, it can only resolve things about 0.1 arcseconds apart (by comparison the Hubble telescope can resolve things 0.05 apart). Thus a Dyson sphere would be much too small for the Webb Telescope, or even the Hubble Telescope, to resolve

> So what about the dark ring? Would that be some sort of quantum interference minimum?
