NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[John Clark]

Check out this article from The New York Times. Because I'm a subscriber, you can read it through this gift link without a subscription.

In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

In a gathering Cold War atmosphere, American officials are gaming out responses should Russia resort to battlefield nuclear weapons.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/world/europe/washington-putin-nuclear-threats.html?unlocked_article_code=xRIoiQS_9G47tEfSSIh12q69I8sJscUQHsXumHRednYtuLxU3HKOn79jTNmPMzbUbZXDyY2Qt8QLqF9BG9Un8IJQG4FBo6fzfp1vMm90dmrG5mo-8p5QQbSY4QXhROP6qO1hD-NhOfPhurG9l0rCO9jzoZXfbgPOYKSVPLAQQ7CBMazmXZmPF6mPOL6FTgJx56wPmRE_WNgkURTMaTRsnj05_meP7svWDzdIxku7JkBDIrX7GiyHlrx-inAlPtLbUL2TDgvfFhyH0GImfmEdW9l8RM02Kvc_3s94yYuwOzUqkiO8KiLRgxqprvCmlwDns6jdliL8Nt4Pe2Dt71WFc5pjI_AXqJl4fzfHc_jk4A&smid=em-share

[Brent Meeker]

Think how bad it will be if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and they don't work!

Brent

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[John Clark]

On Sun, Oct 2, 2022 at 5:42 PM Brent Meeker <meeke...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Think how bad it will be if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and they don't work!

That's what I'm worried about. Tactical nukes won't give much military help in this sort of war, so a autocrat like Putin may think that if kiloton level nuclear bombs don't work then, since the 77 year old taboo against nuclear weapons had already been broken then  try the strategic megaton variety. It wouldn't be a smart thing for Putin to do but then it wasn't a smart thing for him to invade Ukraine in the first place, so that's why I think the world is closer to the nuclear war that it's been since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.  

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

obt

[Brent Meeker]

Yes that's one way it could go bad.  But there's also the case that they literally don't work.  What if it's found that the Russia nuclear arsenal is like the Moskova.  An unmaintained, unreliable, and ineffective weapon.  Putin will think, "SHIT!  No only can I not depend on the Army, I can't depend on my nukes AND I'VE JUST DEMONSTRATED THIS TO THE WEST!".  Desperate men will do desperate things.  I just hope the oligarchs can have him assassinated quickly enough.

Brent

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[Lawrence Crowell]

The probability of this is small I think, but not zero. I do think it is not likely these are dysfunctional. If anything might be dysfunctional it would be their delivery systems. The Russians have made these a top priority. 

If Russia starts nuking Ukraine NATO cannot respond in kind. In the end we can only trust that future history will judge this regime accordingly.

LC

[John Clark]

On Mon, Oct 3, 2022 at 12:07 AM Brent Meeker <meeke...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Yes that's one way it could go bad.  But there's also the case that they literally don't work. 

Unfortunately I think there is little chance that Russian H-bombs won't explode because it's not that difficult to maintain them; Plutonium 239 has a halflife of 24,000 years, U235 has a half life of over 700 million years, and lithium-6 deuteride is stable. It's true that modern H-bombs also have a very small amount  of the hydrogen isotope tritium and it's half life is only 12 years but it will explode without tritium just with a somewhat reduced yield, and the chemical explosive used to initiate the implosion could become unstable after a few decades and would need to be replaced with fresh explosives, but I have a hunch if there is anything in Russia that is well-maintained it is their nuclear bombs. And since Ukraine is right on the Russian border a delivery system for such bombs is not really an issue.  

 

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

ezi

[Lawrence Crowell]

Plutonium pits have to be cycled every few years, where after 10 years their effectiveness is very reduced. It is not because the nuclei of plutonium has decayed, but the crystalline structure of the plutonium is not longer the optimal allotrope. The implosive collapse of the pit is not as effective at starting a fission chain reaction. There is a duty cycle on the plutonium that has to be remelted and metallurgically reconfigured.

LC 

 

ezi

[Brent Meeker]

And could a general skim off the money intended for this recycling and become very rich?

Brent

[Lawrence Crowell]

That is how the Afghanistan fell. Officers and administrators were stealing the equipment, for sale often to the Taliban, and pocketing the pay. In fact with the fall of the Roman Empire, there were legions more than capable of repelling the Visigoths that crossed the Rhine and ultimately sacked Rome in 410 AD. The problem is the legionnaires had not been paid and they refused orders.

LC

[Brent Meeker]

My point exactly.  But think how it might make Putin more dangerous if he wasn't sure he could rely on his nuclear deterrent.

Brent

[Lawrence Crowell]

One of Clancey's novels involved a scenario where the entire Russian nuclear system turned out to be a massive dud. The story did not involve a war with Russia, but where it was found that largely the post-Soviet nuclear armed systems were mostly crap. It is hard to know how Putin would behave. If he knew the Russian nuclear system is trash, he might be reluctant to carry out a threat to it end in a game of nuclear chicken. He might prove to the world that Russia is the latter day Ottoman "sick man of the world." This is if he is rational, which I am not sure of. If he were smart he would cut his loses and end this war. The referendums and other events illustrate he is digging his heels in deeper. 

LC