On Tue, Dec 09, 2025 at 07:49:09AM -0500, John Clark wrote:
> On Tue, Dec 9, 2025 at 6:40 AM 'Tomasz Rola' via Everything List <
>
everyth...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
>
> *> while my performance was not stellar, would I say that getting score
> > required any kind of superhuman abilities? Nope.*
>
>
> *I would say that getting a score of 118 on the Putnam is FAR beyond the
> abilities of 99.99+% of the humans on this planet; so "superhuman" would
> not be a completely inaccurate word to describe such an ability. *
Sure, solving more problems should be more difficult and would require
bigger ability - in this particular field, i.e. problem solving. This
says nothing about one's ability in other fields until one is tried in
those other fields. And besides, while a horse is stronger than me, so
it has bigger ability in the field of moving a ton of cargo, it is
still no reason to treat a horse as some kind of demigod. Even if
someone discovers that a horse may kick a baseball into neighboring
town. Of course, some people will inevitably elevate such a horse into
demigod position and I will inevitably make remarks how they will eat
salami of demigod once it gets too old.
This is not to mean that there has been no progress - there was a
progress, quite impressive progress, happened during more or less
single lifetime. However, each technology has limits, and if there is
no breakthrough, then there is no more dramatic improvement. In
particular, assuming they run LLM on computing cluster (and I cannot
imagine anything else for such task, but I had not dug for the
information, so I can assume only) - it is very hard to double
performance of a cluster. You may see an example in wikipedia article
about scalability, where is is shown how doubling cpus from 4 to 8
only gives 22% of speed increase (for very specific kind of
computation, as described there). [1]
Or, to put it another way, throwing more and more resources into
cluster is going to give smaller and smaller performance
improvements. Improving algorithms will change the serial part of
computation to be smaller and will make parallel part to give faster
results with more cpus. But algorithms cannot be improved infinitely.
The whole talk about building nuclear plants for powering cluster to
run bigger model on it seems (IMHO) to indicate "they" have hit the
wall and cannot easily improve anymore. Mind you, this is a single
computer (ok, cluster is your new computer, right), running a single
application (LLM), and they need it to have its own power plant.
Assuming they get there, can they have even bigger cluster, say, 20
times as big, powered by another 20 plants? This is going to be
ridiculous, or pathetitc improvement. There should be a better
way. And if no such way is found - there will be long stagnation, I
suppose.
[1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scalability
Of course there are going to be some interesting new uses for this
stagnated tech. Some more click-baity titles. LLM will kick a
football, too, always scoring perfect goal.
Wild prophecies about coming era of artificial intelligence were
happening for a very long time - the earliest I have read about was in
1954, if memory serves (I do not want to dig out this book right
now). This means 71 years of unfulfilled prophecies. Color me bored.
This time, it may be different. But so far, the only thing which seems
different is the fact prophecy makers are not very trustworthy. If
they were less wealthy, I would have been prone to think some of them
were small time grifters. Since I have been tracing the field of tech
for a certain number of years, I think I have read about CEOs giving
testimonies in front of court, which I would say were not aligned with
the truth too much, maybe even knowingly so, and getting away with
it. Or selling product while probably knowing it was faulty. Frankly,
guys similar to those earlier guys are now promising me a better
future. Oh really.
About mathematician being able to start a wholly new road - I think we
had miscommunication. I never meant a road built nowhere, disconnected
from other roads - this would have been useless. I meant more like it
is easy to build road around the mountains, but one day someone builds
one road straight throu them and thus a new way of mathematics is
born. Or extends one road even further. Existing roads are not
nullified, AFAIK. I think I am with Brent except I do not wait for
coming of AI. But I will be glad to be wrong.