US TV Election Coverage

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PGage

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Nov 4, 2020, 5:51:30 PM11/4/20
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I bounced around a bit last night and this morning (I was up until 4:00 am PT), but mostly watched NBC/MSNBC, CNN and ABC. 

I won’t spend a lot of time here trying to persuade a skeptical audience about MSNBC, I find their coverage to be fair to good.  I love Nicole Wallace, who I think was the hero of the night in all the coverage I saw, because she stubbornly and persistently kept reminding people, even during the early Blue Mirage that got a lot of analysts obsessing on the possibility of a Blue Tidal Wave, that Biden’s focus was on WI, MI and PA, and that none of the early Blue losses should be allowed to influence the judgement of how a Biden was doing. She was absolutely right of course, and is charming and fetching as hell to boot. Also, I like Kornacki.

On the other hand, I was simply appalled by how horrible CNN was. Bad, bad, bad. I am shocked at how much praise John King seems to get; he is horrid. He knows the actual numbers, but does not seem to understand context,mornworse,modes understand, but chooses to obscure it to pimp audience interest. Repeatedly I saw Kornacki report a result while pointing out that even though it looked good for either Biden or Trump, it was really bad or tepid, given that he was expected or needed to do better in that county in order to win the state. King OTOH repeatedly reported the same result, but would say something like: “is that enough for X? We will have to see.” Also, yikes, *Van Jones* and, icky, still in danger of getting a lot of Santorum on you when you watch CNN.

What impressed me about ABC was the restraint of their projection desk, which not only more cautious than Fox and NBC, but also the very restrained AP.

I had planned to watch more CBS but never got around to it, so not sure how they did.
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bermuda999

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Nov 4, 2020, 8:32:32 PM11/4/20
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CBS should have utilized the debate microphone MUTE button on Gayle King constantly trying to interrupt election analysis 
for her weak unfunny zingers that would barely be interesting on CBS This Morning
Her participation was particularly horrifying next to Norah O'Donnell's no-nonsense approach
John Dickerson was particularly quiet and deferred to the other panelists. He actually looked exhausted

Kevin M.

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Nov 4, 2020, 9:46:44 PM11/4/20
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My impersonation of John King on CNN last night:

“Ok, let’s look at Florida, 2 percent has reported in, and these numbers could mean anything, they will change, and they just did, with 3 percent reporting, we see two counties have reported in, but these numbers aren’t necessarily reflective of the final count, so stay tuned. Ok? As I said that the numbers changed. Let’s compare those changes to changes from the Carter/Reagan election, but remember those numbers aren’t really a fair comparison, but let’s waste time talking about it anyway, no... wait... the numbers have changed again... with 4 percent reporting, these numbers will change, so stay tuned...”

Ugh.

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Brad Beam

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Nov 4, 2020, 10:07:02 PM11/4/20
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From: tvor...@googlegroups.com [mailto:tvor...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of PGage

>I had planned to watch more CBS but never got around to it, so not sure how they did.

 

You have a second chance; all three nets are currently running an hour’s worth of coverage.

 

_   _

|_>|_>  Brad Beam- Belle WV

|_>|_>  http://www.facebook.com/74bmw

PGage

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Nov 4, 2020, 10:41:54 PM11/4/20
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I have been watching returns all day non stop, still mostly NBC/MSNBC, plus a few online sources.

A lot of action tonight: AZ moving towards Trump, GA and PA moving towards Biden. NV went to sleep early.

One of the bigger side stories is the decision of Fox News to make a Call in AZ early for Biden. I thought that was a little risky, and Trump went nuts, probably the most justified freak out of his presidency. AP made similar call a little later, and the projection operations of all of these outlets are pretty well sealed off from editorial. Still, NBC and ABC studiously refused to make that call.

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PGage

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Nov 4, 2020, 10:42:30 PM11/4/20
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Exactly.



Dave Sikula

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Nov 5, 2020, 4:47:49 AM11/5/20
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I, too, was following the MSNBC/CNN/ABC path, the first because I like the anchors (I share your feelings about Ms. Wallace, despite her unfortunate past), the second because it just seemed like a clusterfuck (any network that gives Blitzer and Santorum gainful employment just leaves me scratching my head), and the last to see if I could find Nate Silver explaining how the pollsters screwed up again.

My favorite part of the evening may have been Kornacki's meltdown after Trump's acceptance speech. He went ballistic and nearly put his finger through the magic screen.

My least favorite part of today (and probably tomorrow) is the wall-to-wall coverage of (almost literally) nothing happening, but the same analysts and pundits still going over and over and over the same ground. If you've got no real news to cover, get off the air.

--Dave Sikula

Joe Hass

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Nov 5, 2020, 7:45:10 AM11/5/20
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Does anyone have a link to The Kornacki Meltdown? I would like to see that.

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Bob Jersey

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Nov 5, 2020, 10:25:09 AM11/5/20
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I have some right-leaning media critics like Brian Tyler Cohen shoveled to me on the 'toob, but they haven't piped up as of this post.

Joe Hass, to Dave Sikula's response to PGage, Nov 5th:
Does anyone have a link to The Kornacki Meltdown? I would like to see that.

I, too, was following the MSNBC/CNN/ABC path, the first because I like the anchors (I share your feelings about Ms. Wallace, despite her unfortunate past), the second because it just seemed like a clusterfuck (any network that gives Blitzer and Santorum gainful employment just leaves me scratching my head), and the last to see if I could find Nate Silver explaining how the pollsters screwed up again.

My favorite part of the evening may have been Kornacki's meltdown after Trump's acceptance speech. He went ballistic and nearly put his finger through the magic screen.

My least favorite part of today (and probably tomorrow) is the wall-to-wall coverage of (almost literally) nothing happening, but the same analysts and pundits still going over and over and over the same ground. If you've got no real news to cover, get off the air.

B

Bob Jersey

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Nov 5, 2020, 10:28:58 AM11/5/20
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However, I did find Kelly Ripa riffing on Kornacki... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgtPeEbPcGk (link)

B

Dave Sikula

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Nov 5, 2020, 5:02:54 PM11/5/20
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Perhaps I exaggerated a tad. It wasn't quite a meltdown, but he was obviously really pissed off by what Trump had just said about Biden having no way to make up votes and was jabbing at the screen like someone's grandfather trying to get their iPhone to respond.

--Dave Sikula

Adam Bowie

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Nov 6, 2020, 5:45:41 AM11/6/20
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I wish I'd found this on election night, but I found this really useful facility built by a developer from The Times (of London) that lets you watch multiple simultaneous YouTube streams of news channels including the ability to mute all, or pick the sound of which channel you want to hear:

https://vidgrid.tk.gg/#aHR0cHM6Ly9jbm5saXZlLndhcm5lcm1lZGlhY2RuLmNvbS9obHMvbGl2ZS8yMDExNTkxL1BST0QtY25ubGl2ZTAvVklERU9fMl8xMDI4MDAwLm0zdTgsaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueW91dHViZS5jb20vd2F0Y2g/dj1hajdFTGJ3OEZ4TSxodHRwczovLzI0Ny5mb3huZXdzLmNvbS9obHMvbGl2ZS8yMDAzNTg2L0ZOQ0hMU3YzL3ByaW1hcnlfMjYyOC5tM3U4LGh0dHBzOi8vbmJjbmV3cy1saC5ha2FtYWloZC5uZXQvaS9uYmNfbGl2ZTEzQDE4NzM5NC9tYXN0ZXIubTN1OCw0LGZhbHNlLDA=

It only works if the channel is streaming via YouTube, which most major ones are.



Adam

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Doug Eastick

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Nov 6, 2020, 11:30:36 AM11/6/20
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Adam - thanks for that link.   Such an easy thing to use.


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Adam Bowie

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Nov 6, 2020, 12:06:12 PM11/6/20
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It's pretty cool isn't it? It's like something you'd find on a screen in a newsroom. Lots of options for channels just by clicking on a screen - including notices where there are geo-restrictions in place. 

And it's worth noting that the icon just above the numbers on the right lets you go fullscreen on whichever feed you have audio for.

I've had it on all day now. (Mostly muted)

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Bob Jersey

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Nov 6, 2020, 1:07:36 PM11/6/20
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When I tried it a few minutes ago, two of them were reporting on the county just west of mine in PA... one of the local papers made a big series of how the area -- majority Dems -- flipped to Donnie in 2016...  B

Doug Eastick, to Adam Bowie, Dave Sikula, Joe Hass, and PGage, Nov 6th:
Adam - thanks for that link.   Such an easy thing to use.

Kevin M.

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Nov 6, 2020, 1:52:30 PM11/6/20
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For two days my primary news source has been the AP Election Map via Google. Late last night I awoke and checked it to see Biden finally having a majority in Georgia, then this morning I saw Pennsylvania in Biden’s favor. 

At this point many including myself are wondering if news outlets are reluctant to call the race out of fear of what Trump will say/do as reprisal. Multiple statisticians have broken down the math... yes Trump could still win, but only if every current trend in vote tallies magically reversed. There will be recounts, but that won’t shift the numbers more than a couple hundred. So although all the votes aren’t in and won’t be for days, that doesn’t normally prevent every news outlet from making an informed prediction/call, yet here we are. 

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Kevin M. (RPCV)

John Edwards

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Nov 6, 2020, 4:16:38 PM11/6/20
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I think there are a couple of things going on. The first is that whoever is the first to call the election for Biden (and we're basically at the point where the next state does it) is going to get destroyed by the Trumpettes. Part of me thinks they may be waiting for Fox News to bite the bullet and do it, although given how badly the WH reacted to their call of Arizona on Tuesday (which was aggressive but looks like it will be correct) Fox may be a bit gunshy.

The second is that I think the networks are dragging this out to prime time. Once Biden gets past 270, the show is effectively over and we all stop obsessing over Steve Kornacki's khakis and whether John King had a PornHub tab on his big screen (he didn't, but the video is funny). My guess is the next vote dump in Nevada (supposedly at 4 Pacific/7 Eastern) will be enough to call that, and a big dump in Arizona that doesn't see Trump closing the gap quickly enough will pull everybody into line behind the AP and Fox. If PA stretches beyond 25K, that may also provoke a call. But since Harris and Biden are supposedly planning to speak at 8:30 Eastern tonight, I would anticipate a call by then. They aren't going out there again to say "things are looking good."

John


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PGage

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Nov 6, 2020, 4:51:11 PM11/6/20
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I was watching live when Trump took the lead in GA early this morning (Kornacki had it before it was even reported on the main relevant Twitter feeds), and woke up in time to see him take the lead in PA later this morning.

I think we are starting to get to the point where a call for the whole election can be made, but I’m not too critical that they have not done it yet. I suspect one complication is the recount in WI. Almost certainly Biden’s lead there will withstand a recount, but can the networks really make a call in the election when to do so would require giving a Biden WI now?  Also think this is WH they are slow to make a call in PA (for which there really is no other explanation; Biden has clearly won that state). 

If they call PA for Biden, then will be forced to take a position on WI. I suppose they could designate Biden “The Apparent Winner” of the entire election, but that phrase might cause more problems than it causes.

Doug Eastick

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Nov 6, 2020, 5:10:12 PM11/6/20
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saw this link on twitter.... from a guy that generates HTML from various data.     kinda handy rather than watching TV :)

http://fourlongyearsisalmostover.herokuapp.com/

from https://twitter.com/spudtrooper/status/1324816348468359168


Kevin M.

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Nov 6, 2020, 8:48:18 PM11/6/20
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Maddow is quarantined since someone she knows closely tested positive for Covid 


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Kevin M. (RPCV)

Dave Sikula

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Nov 6, 2020, 9:15:25 PM11/6/20
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Probably for the best, given her propensity to filibuster. I'd be happy with just Hayes, Wallace, and Reid (and, of course, Karnacki).

--Dave Sikula

David Lynch

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Nov 6, 2020, 9:24:58 PM11/6/20
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On Fri, Nov 6, 2020 at 8:15 PM 'Dave Sikula' via TVorNotTV <tvor...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
Karnacki

This spelling of his name is giving me images of Steve Kornacki holding an envelope up to his forehead and predicting how many votes will be in the next drop.

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Brad Beam

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Nov 6, 2020, 9:31:05 PM11/6/20
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From: 'Dave Sikula' via TVorNotTV [mailto:tvor...@googlegroups.com]

>Probably for the best, given her propensity to filibuster. I'd be happy with just Hayes, Wallace, and Reid (and, of course, Karnacki).

 

Fwiw, it appears Leslie Jones is ride-or-die for Mr. K, and accepts no substitutes….

https://twitter.com/Lesdoggg/status/1324807523556192256

daves...@gmail.com

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Nov 6, 2020, 9:31:24 PM11/6/20
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I knew I should have checked it, but I was riveted by Hannity melting down.

--Dake Sivula

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PGage

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Nov 6, 2020, 11:11:52 PM11/6/20
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Rachel can sometimes be a bit much, but Reid drives me crazy.

daves...@gmail.com

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Nov 6, 2020, 11:32:58 PM11/6/20
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I like Maddow when she's a guest on a talk show and is forced to be a little more succinct, but when she launches one of her 20-minute jury summations on her own show, I can't stand it. It makes me long for the days of Olbermann's unhinged rants.

--Dave Sikula

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Kevin M.

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Nov 7, 2020, 12:17:48 AM11/7/20
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I do hope they finalize the election and Biden wins so I can make legitimate criticisms of MSNBC without it seeming like I’m agreeing with Trump 

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daves...@gmail.com

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Nov 7, 2020, 12:25:13 AM11/7/20
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The conventional wisdom that MSNBC is the mirror image of Fox always baffles me. Maddow, Hayes, and Reid are liberal; everyone is either hardline centrist or a not-so-former Republican. Being not-Trump isn't really enough.

--Dave Sikua

Kevin M.

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Nov 7, 2020, 12:34:31 AM11/7/20
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On Fri, Nov 6, 2020 at 9:25 PM daves...@gmail.com <daves...@gmail.com> wrote:
The conventional wisdom that MSNBC is the mirror image of Fox always baffles me. Maddow, Hayes, and Reid are liberal; everyone is either hardline centrist or a not-so-former Republican. Being not-Trump isn't really enough.

I’d care more about their politics if they were actually good at their jobs. Brian Williams is good enough... I prefer him to anyone who hosts a CNN show. But MSNBC hosts care less about the news than they do about their opinion of the news. 

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daves...@gmail.com

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Nov 7, 2020, 12:40:57 AM11/7/20
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Williams isn't bad when he's not trying to impress the viewer with how clever he is.

The others (and, really, Hayes is the only one I watch regularly) at least are articulate and have points of view I, mostly, agree with. I can easily see, though, how anyone could find any of them insufferable.

--Dave Sikula

JW

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Nov 7, 2020, 3:58:38 AM11/7/20
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> At this point many including myself are wondering if news outlets are
> reluctant to call the race out of fear of what Trump will say/do as
> reprisal.

I doubt it. The East Cupcake Pennysaver may be worried about blowback, but the media whose calls we care about are well enough established to withstand whatever grief they'd get, or are getting for waiting.

I think this is the residue of 2000. No doubt stringent standards were put into place to make sure that no calls are made prematurely; the penalty for being wrong is much greater than the reward for being the first to be right. And no matter what any news organization reports, or any candidate claims, nothing is official until the states release their final totals, whenever that may be.

Meantime, the reporting is out there for us to draw our own conclusions.

daves...@gmail.com

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Nov 7, 2020, 4:52:02 AM11/7/20
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Apparently (and I'm getting this second-hand from Twitter, so use at least a grain of salt), Chris Cuomo admitted on CNN tonight that part of the reluctance to call the races is that Trump has lied about the process so much that they need to be 100% certain, rather than somewhere in the 90s.

While I understand that mentality, it also strikes me as similar to what the Democrats do in trying to appease people who would never watch, believe, or vote for them in the vain hopes of appealing to their (non-existent) better natures. Yes, there would be an "I told you so" if they declared Biden the winner and Trump inexplicably pulled off an electoral Hail Mary, but the troglodytes are already claiming it's fake news, so there's really nothing to be lost.

--Dave Sikula

PGage

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Nov 7, 2020, 7:16:24 AM11/7/20
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I like Brian Williams a lot; can’t think of any TV news anchor currently working I like better. Maddow has her problems, but I find her deep dives are at least as often enlightening as they are performative and self indulgent (and of course sometimes both). Surprised you like Hayes > Maddow, I find him mostly insufferable. Shocked you like Reid, she speaks in cliches and alternates between the obvious and her own wish fulfillment.

MSNBC’s election news coverage (as opposed to analysis) has been excellent this cycle. The young guy they have working Arizona ( is it Gadi Schwartz?) has been excellent. They have made great use of Jon Ralston,  the Editor of the Nevada Independent, and the young blonde woman who works for him (sorry I can’t remember her name) x they seem to know everything about that state. NBC reporters have been staking out west and east PA and doing a good job covering the long and complex issues related to the vote count there. 

I have gushed enough about Wallace, but will repeat that I don’t think she has gotten enough credit for, from early Tuesday, even when so many were dreaming of blue wave in Fl, Tx and OH, keeping her eye on WI, MI and PA as the story of this election.

And of course Kornacki, who is so much more than an internet sensation. He is a rare thing on TV, someone who is there because he is smart and good at his job, not just because he is attractive or verbally smooth (not that he is not either of those). It is a pleasure to watch him think through complex issues on live TV, of course aided by the producer in his ear. And, while his network has a reputation for being liberal, he has been one of the lone voices in current election coverage anywhere pointing out a substantive reason for withholding a projection in PA (unknown make up of the 100K provisional votes). He is not saying these will probably make up Trump’s deficit, just that under current conditions there is enough uncertainty to be justify caution.

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Joe Hass

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Nov 7, 2020, 7:26:05 AM11/7/20
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This is disingenuous bullshit. If the standard on Tuesday for Illinois is different than the standard on Saturday for Georgia, then that's a *you* problem. At that point, the media should do one of two things:

1. Openly admit that they have changed their standards and justify their reasoning for doing so.
2. Simply announce that they've called the states in question "impossible to call", are going to now treat the current vote total as gospel, and only when it becomes mathematically impossible for one of the candidates to surpass the other will they award the electoral votes.

But knock this (expletive) shit off.

PGage

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Nov 7, 2020, 10:50:14 AM11/7/20
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I suspect either Cuomo did not really say that, or if he said it, he is wrong. Note that the decision desks are pretty much firewalled off from the news desks at all outlets, so Cuomo has no role in making projections, and probably does not know more about it then the rest of us watching closely.

The NBC Decision Desk has said they won’t make calls in any race until they are 99.5% confident. That is not a metaphor, that is a concrete statistical standard (almost three standard deviations). I am confident Biden is going to win PA, have been since very early Wed morning. I am 95% confident. Without having access to exact information and doing the precise math, I’m not sure I am 99.5% confident. This is the Decision Desk’s job, and they really don’t want to be wrong.

And here is what Nate Silver wrote about a half hour ago a, using the AP standard (can be read in his running blog here: 


“...The AP will not call a race if the margin falls within the mandatory recount range or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted. That’s pertinent in Pennsylvania, for instance, where the recount threshold is 0.5 percent. Currently, Biden leads by 0.43 percentage points in Pennsylvania as additional mail ballots are counted. That’s going to keep growing — probably to around 1 percent — as additional ballots are counted.

So could the race get called when Biden’s lead hits 0.5 percent? Actually, I think that’s decently likely, at least for some of the decision desks (keep in mind that not everyone necessarily uses the AP’s exact standards). But there is also that second provision: “or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted.” So in theory, the AP would have to be satisfied that not only will Biden maintain his lead but also that he’ll maintain a lead of 0.5 percentage points once provisional ballots are counted.

That is a higher standard. I’d consider it essentially certain that Biden will win Pennsylvania, barring unexpected legal challenges. Is it also essentially certain that he’ll win by 0.5 percentage points or more? I think you could argue the point based on those provisional ballots, but I’d probably come down on the side of “yes” on that question too, at least to the standards that decision desks usually use. Nonetheless, 0.5 percent is a higher threshold than one vote. And if we’re still waiting for calls throughout the day, that may be the reason why depending on what each network’s policy is and how they’re interpreting it.“


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Bob Jersey

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Nov 7, 2020, 11:01:33 AM11/7/20
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But of course, some consider it more important that Silver admit he isn't perfect, to which he replied "F*** you, we did a good job"...

B
 

PGage

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Nov 7, 2020, 11:21:07 AM11/7/20
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Nate Silver has a thankless job (luckily he is making a lot of money, so doesn’t need thanks). No matter how many times and how many different ways he tries to explain the nature if probabilistic prediction, most people will neither understand nor care.

My Electoral College prediction map, which I made Sunday night, based on analysis from Nate and others like him, looks like it will be pretty good: I had Biden getting NC instead of GA, otherwise it looks exactly like the current map using where each candidate is ahead in counted votes. Nate had Biden winning the popular vote by 8 points, looks like it will end up being between 4 and 5. Nate told us that if Biden’s popular vote lead fell under 5 points there was like a 33% chance he could lose the EC.

Nate doesn’t do polling folks; he tries to combine polling results done by others to make best predictions about the range of outcomes possible. 

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PGage

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Nov 7, 2020, 11:30:33 AM11/7/20
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CNN makes the Call

Melissa P

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Nov 7, 2020, 11:33:04 AM11/7/20
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Yes, Nate doesn't do his own polling.

And the polling is where the problems are.  I predict a lot of friction at the next AAPOR (American Association for Public Opinion Research) meeting.

My semi-educated guess:  cell phone problem not solved and may never be solved.

PGage

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Nov 7, 2020, 11:40:22 AM11/7/20
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ABC also.

Looks like Nate Silver was right, they were waiting for the margin in PA to get to .5%. Latest results from Allegheny County put him over that mark.

Bob Jersey

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Nov 7, 2020, 1:15:02 PM11/7/20
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CNN found "memos" telling Fox News talent not to use the term "President-elect" following the clinch...


PGage, Nov 7th:
CNN makes the Call



B
 

Bob Jersey

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Nov 7, 2020, 1:21:38 PM11/7/20
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My cell sends out texts waaaaay slower than it receives them.

It also has the tendency to misfire alarms/calendar reminders one hour before or after the actual time... I immediately thought my brother Allen, who uses two phones neither the same model as mine, had that problem today, tho he argued he just forgot to set that particular reminder... and almost called me an expletive...   B

MelissaP, to PGage, in part, Nov 7th:

Melissa P

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Nov 7, 2020, 1:50:05 PM11/7/20
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Actually, the only real problem you mentioned is the fact that your brother has two phones.

The days of each household having only one, maybe two telephone lines are long gone.

Perhaps we'll have to go back to mailed questionnaires -- along with financial incentives.

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PGage

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Nov 7, 2020, 4:38:56 PM11/7/20
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Cell phones may be part of the problem, but polls of all kinds, internet, landline, in person, cell phone, all are going to show about a 3.5 point polling error. That is not horrible, but twice in two cycles significant and in same direction.

I think a big part of the problem is that characteristics of many Trump voters makes them hostile and suspicious of the media and pollsters. More than ever before, the sample of adults who agree to take a poll is systematically different than the population of voters. This is going to be a difficult problem to solve with conventional polling methodology. My suggestion is something they will hate, which is to figure out a correction based on demographic variables.  

 Do wonder why polls were so far off in a state like Wisconsin, while so accurate in a state like Georgia.

PGage

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Nov 7, 2020, 6:38:04 PM11/7/20
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More support fir Nate Silver’s theory that the call for PA, and hence the election was held until the PA lead exceeded .5%, from the AP:

“By Saturday afternoon, Biden’s lead in the state had climbed to over 34,000 votes, an edge over Trump of 0.51 percentage points that placed him outside the margin for a mandatory recount.

Under Pennsylvania law, a recount is automatic when the margin between two candidates in a statewide race is less than 0.5 percentage points. Biden’s lead over Trump was on track to stay outside of that margin as final votes are counted.”



Doug Eastick

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Nov 7, 2020, 10:56:48 PM11/7/20
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Thanks for the AP criteria in that.  But my question is.... Since at least 3or 4 main tv Nets made the declaration on air within 60 seconds of each other, are they all waiting on the same criteria???

Or did they all align on criteria and a phone call?  

I figured they all chatted on making the call.



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PGage

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Nov 8, 2020, 12:18:31 AM11/8/20
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I doubt they conferred, working in isolation and independently is a big part of the process. They probably have several criteria, but the .5 rule (or rather, the outside the recount threshold rule) is probably one they all have. 

I think what happened in PA was that they probably had hit all of their criteria for making a projection (some of which may have been unique to each shop) for some time, but because of the unique contours of 2020, the last hurdle they all had to clear was the recount margin. When the margin got to .05, it triggered a call for everyone.

Paul Murray

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Nov 8, 2020, 9:14:27 AM11/8/20
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>  I think a big part of the problem is that characteristics of many Trump voters makes them hostile and suspicious of the media and pollsters. More than ever before, the sample of adults who agree to take a poll is systematically different than the population of voters. This is going to be a difficult problem to solve with conventional polling methodology. My suggestion is something they will hate, which is to figure out a correction based on demographic variables.    

An anecdote is not data, but I've seen Trump supporters on Reddit gleefully claiming that they lied to a pollster about who they'd be voting for.

PGage

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Nov 8, 2020, 12:00:27 PM11/8/20
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Here is a WaPo story n the late calls by media Decision Desks from yesterday:


Basically,Mathe long delay even when the outcome seemed clear at least by Friday morning was the uncertainty created by the new, high levels of early voting. Especially hard to be confident about the nature of the uncounted ballots. Nothing nefarious there, and makes sense.there is a difference between casual observers with no skin in the game being 90% sure, and experts who have a professional obligation to get it right, who want to be 95, 99,:or even 99.5% sure.

Main new thing I learned was explanation of odd couple discrepancy in the Arizona call: AP and Fox News broke away from the consortium used by most other outlets to provide election data and both went to a new, different service. The new service provided a slightly different sample, that made both AP and Fox (independently analyzing the same set of data) to judge Biden with a big enough lead to make a call.

This explains what otherwise was one of the worst projections I have ever seen, and clearly the worst of this cycle. Even when Trump was way ahead in the reported vote count late Tuesday night in PA, it has always been clear Biden had a better chance of winning PA than AZ. Even more true with NV vs AZ. Yet AP is probably the most cautious, and Fox of opcourse,mic there was any editorial leakage, more conservative, so it just didn’t make sense to me that these would be the two to get this out of line.

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