Hello all, i have 5 months worth of vaccination data for 47 regions each and i'm trying to forecast the vaccination coverage to the next six months.
the results show a coverage more than 100% in some of the regions which doesn't make sense. I have also set the forecasted period values to NA. This is a sample of the code.
v_cov1b <- Vacc_any_train ~ 1 + as.numeric(Week) + as.factor(MnTT2) + as.numeric(Rural) + as.numeric(Over58) +
f(Month, model="ar1", hyper = list(theta = list(prior='pc.prec', param=c(1,0.1)))) +
f(CID, model ="iid") +
f(Year, model = "iid")
mod.1b <- inla(v_cov1b,
family = "poisson",
data = Vaccination_cov,
E = Pop2,
control.inla=list(strategy="laplace", tolerance = 1e-20, h=1e-05),
control.compute=list(config=TRUE, dic=TRUE, waic=TRUE, mlik = TRUE, cpo=TRUE),
control.predictor = list(compute = TRUE, link=1),
quantiles = c(0.025, 0.05,0.5,0.95, 0.975),
control.fixed= list(expand.factor.strategy = "inla",
#mean.intercept = 1,
prec.intercept = 0.1),
verbose=TRUE)
summary(mod.1b)
Thanks in advance.