Eulogy for the postup?

[Evan Zamir]

I was just thinking to myself how much more fun the NBA playoffs would be right now with a presence like Yao or Shaq. I honestly miss that kind of dominating interior offense. Don't get me wrong, I love me some Curry 3-pt shooting, but where's the uni to his unagi? 

It's been building for a few years, but it really does seem like the end is nigh for the post-up as a staple of many offenses in the league. It's not clear to me whether the issue is the lack of skilled big men left in the game (perhaps, their demise hastened by early entry to the NBA), or simply a shift to more perimeter-oriented offense, in general, because of the (finally) appreciated value of 3-pt shooting.

Where is the next Yao or Shaq going to come from? Anthony Davis will end up being a monster in pick and roll plays, but I can't see him becoming a beast down low. You have your Hibberts and Howards, but those are relatively poor imitations of the real thing.

Is this just a lull or is it a more permanent paradigm shift?

[Seth Partnow]

It's the combination of rules and modern defensive schemes more than anything else.  There just isn't the space for a true "set up in the office" type to work with impunity. Someone as physically dominant as Shaq was might still prosper but he was sort of sui generis.

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[thomas.pestak]

Ive been thinking about this too. I thought Roy Hibbert would be the one to bring the back to the basket game back. I think teams just build their offenses around dribble penetration these days. And the ball can't stick for too long or defenses trap too quickly. Interestingly I find that defenses double in the post to their own detriment. It's almost like they just can't NOT send help when someone gets decent position on the block. And then they give up an open 3 somewhere else. So yeah, when offenses and defenses are limiting post scoring opportunities, the rules favor dribble penetration, and having floor spacing bigs is often more valuable than bangers in the post....we get these 3 point fests. I think Greg Oden could have brought back a Shaq-like dominance down low but it wasn't meant to be - poor guy. Anthony Davis seems a bit too light and agile to prefer scoring with his back to the basket.

[Seth Partnow]

Almost everyone who would be an efficient post scorer would be a MORE efficient pnr roll man. That isn't to say there isn't a place for post ups, but it should be more opportunistic duck ins and transition rim runs than plodding dump it inside sets.

> On Apr 20, 2014, at 9:10 AM, "thomas.pestak" <thomas...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Ive been thinking about this too. I thought Roy Hibbert would be the one to bring the back to the basket game back. I think teams just build their offenses around dribble penetration these days. And the ball can't stick for too long or defenses trap too quickly. Interestingly I find that defenses double in the post to their own detriment. It's almost like they just can't NOT send help when someone gets decent position on the block. And then they give up an open 3 somewhere else. So yeah, when offenses and defenses are limiting post scoring opportunities, the rules favor dribble penetration, and having floor spacing bigs is often more valuable than bangers in the post....we get these 3 point fests. I think Greg Oden could have brought back a Shaq-like dominance down low but it wasn't meant to be - poor guy. Anthony Davis seems a bit too light and agile to prefer scoring with his back to the basket.
>

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[sirpsycho85]

I think it's a shift. Defenses are toi advanced to allow any one player near the basket kill them.

I also lament the loss of midrange game. Not in the sense that players 'should' take midrange shots, but it's a beutiful part of the game, and it would be nice if the rules rewarded this sort of play more. For example:
1. Pushing back 3 pt line, but better;
2. Stop calling fouls when the offensive player initiates contact. Why does the NBA reward this? This is my biggest complaint about the game, it ruins the flow and nobody grows up playing like that.

[Zachary Bennett]

What about Anthony Davis of the future, when/if the Pelicans get healthy and/or are able to determine the best personnel to place around him?   

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[awsuchman]

After watching Nene vs. Noah, I do miss seeing two big guys go mano-a-mano.

I think the problem is that a modern post-up player has to be a really good passer and ballhandler in addition to having the size, strength, and skill to score in the post. Very few players have all of those qualities. I don't think it's a coincidence that guys like LeBron and Andre Miller are among the best post players now. But then, as Seth mentioned, a big man with all those skills would probably also be a destructive PnR roll man. Maybe the future of the post-up lies in big perimeter players, like what Brooklyn has been doing with their guys.

[Daniel McAuliffe]

I agree with the perimeter players as the next page stage of post up threats. Strong little guys are more likely to have those skills, and the opposing small has less experience guarding them. Pairing that with a stretch big and you should be able to get a good spot most of the time, and the D players are both in less familiar positions. Jahlil Okafor and Jusuf Nurkic might turn out to be bull in a china shop bigs and be successful posting, but smalls seem most likely.

On 21/04/2014 7:09 PM, "awsuchman" <awsu...@gmail.com> wrote:

After watching Nene vs. Noah, I do miss seeing two big guys go mano-a-mano.

I think the problem is that a modern post-up player has to be a really good passer and ballhandler in addition to having the size, strength, and skill to score in the post. Very few players have all of those qualities. I don't think it's a coincidence that guys like LeBron and Andre Miller are among the best post players now. But then, as Seth mentioned, a big man with all those skills would probably also be a destructive PnR roll man. Maybe the future of the post-up lies in big perimeter players, like what Brooklyn has been doing with their guys.

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[detlefmckey]

Post up FG% data is generally not that impressive now, right? Was it more impressive in distant past? I don't think we have that data. I think having the post-up FG% data makes it seem less special, less worth focusing on.

I wonder what the trends are in steal and block rates on post-up plays thru the years we do have data. Anybody know? Those are pretty major negatives that might not as easy to be ignorant of now as it was in the past.

[Evan Zamir]

Synergy has TOV% on each play type. Someone could look it up there for the past few seasons.

-evan

On Jun 15, 2014, at 1:59 PM, detlefmckey <detle...@gmail.com> wrote:

Post up FG% data is generally not that impressive now, right? Was it more impressive in distant past? I don't think we have that data. I think having the post-up FG% data makes it seem less special, less worth focusing on.

I wonder what the trends are in steal and block rates on post-up plays thru the years we do have data. Anybody know? Those are pretty major negatives that might not as easy to be ignorant of now as it was in the past.

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[dtjmcauliffe]

In case people here haven't seen it, Zach Lowe wrote a post up article today that touches on this stuff. 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/we-interrupt-this-eulogy-for-the-nba-post-up-game-to-bring-you-its-rebirth/