Missing sampling occasions in CMR models

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Chloé Nater

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Dec 22, 2016, 10:47:47 AM12/22/16
to hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
I am currently trying to translate an old multistate mark-recapture model (originally written and analyzed with MARK) into BUGS language to re-analyze it using JAGS.
I have time-dependent capture probabilities p[t]. Of the total 117 sampling occasions, 6 have actually seen no sampling, e.g. no individuals have been captured.
The affected occasions are: 6, 7, 8, 16, 17, 18, 38.

How do I communicate to JAGS that recapture probability p at these specific occasions = 0?

(I am aware that I could break the loops for p[t] up to manually define the affected p's as 0, but I am sure there is a more practical solution).
Thanks alot for any help!

Chloé

Schaub Michael

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Dec 22, 2016, 10:55:56 AM12/22/16
to Chloé Nater, hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology

The easiest way may be to apply a linear model on the recapture probability. You can create a vector X in such a way that the occasion without capture effort gets the same number (e.g. 40). Thus:

 

X = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 40, 40, 40, 6, 7, ...]

 

The model for p then gets something like:

 

P[t] <- beta[X[t]]

 

Priors:

Beta[40] <- 0

Beta[1...39] ~ dunif(0, 1)

 

Best wishes

 

Michael

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Kery Marc

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Dec 23, 2016, 6:34:19 AM12/23/16
to Schaub Michael, Chloé Nater, hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
Dear Michael,

wouldn't the easiest be to simply fill in dummy occasions with only NA's ?

Best regards  --- Marc



From: hmec...@googlegroups.com [hmec...@googlegroups.com] on behalf of Schaub Michael [michael...@vogelwarte.ch]
Sent: 22 December 2016 16:55
To: Chloé Nater; hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
Subject: AW: Missing sampling occasions in CMR models

Schaub Michael

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Dec 23, 2016, 7:25:31 AM12/23/16
to Kery Marc, Chloé Nater, hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
Dear Marc,
I think this is already the case. But then you have to tell the model that the p at specific occasions are 0, and that is what the sketched cosed is doing. An alternative would be actually to take these occasions out from the data set, and then no p Needs to be fixed. But then one has to deal with the unequal capture intervals when modeling survival.
Best wishes
Michael
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Von: Kery Marc
Gesendet: Freitag, 23. Dezember 2016 12:34
An: Schaub Michael; Chloé Nater; hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
Betreff: RE: Missing sampling occasions in CMR models
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Kery Marc

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Dec 23, 2016, 7:32:52 AM12/23/16
to Schaub Michael, Chloé Nater, hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
Dear Michael,

but if all entries in the data are NA for an occasion, then I think you don't need to do anything else. p is simply not estimable and the posterior draws will be from the prior and you ignore them. I would think that you don't even need to fix the associated p's at zero or do anything else.

Best regards --- Marc

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From: Schaub Michael
Sent: 23 December 2016 13:25
To: Kery Marc; Chloé Nater; hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology

Schaub Michael

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Dec 23, 2016, 7:48:51 AM12/23/16
to Kery Marc, Chloé Nater, hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
Dear Marc,

Yes, you are right - I haven't read this carefully enough - my answer refers to the case when there are 0 (not NA).

Best wishes

Michael
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Von: Kery Marc
Gesendet: Freitag, 23. Dezember 2016 13:32

Kery Marc

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Dec 23, 2016, 8:07:40 AM12/23/16
to Schaub Michael, Chloé Nater, hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
Dear Michael,

thanks for confirming. So: the "least-cost" solution to unequal sampling intervals in CJS, MS and related models is then to fill in dummy occasions filled with all NA's and no other thing needs to be done, right ?

Best regards --- Marc

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From: Schaub Michael
Sent: 23 December 2016 13:48

Limoilou Renaud

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Feb 15, 2022, 1:39:15 PM2/15/22
to hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
Dear all, this post is quite old but I'm running into similar issues of unequal time intervals in a CJS model. I attached a chunk of my model, modified from Kery and Schaub. I'm trying to take daily survivals and extrapolate them into monthly (or pre-weaning, to be exact) survivals. However, I get gigantic credibility intervals and I wonder if the unequal sampling might explain this large uncertainty around survival estimates. I understand the concept of dummy 0's (ref Sanz-Aguilar et al. 2019), but how does it affect survival estimates exactly? 
I'm also trying to avoid the Delta method, which I don't understand, and instead derive all survival estimates and their variance, but this might be for another post since I'm not sure I'm doing it correctly. That might be causing the giant CRI too. 

My model is written in Nimble. I have no experience in using public list so apologies if this is useless or not understandable. 
CJS_hmList.R
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