First African SRM research paper

Andy Parker

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Apr 29, 2020, 9:09:18 AM4/29/20

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Hi all,

As some of you will know, the SRM Governance Initiative (SRMGI) funds a number of pioneering SRM research projects in the Global South. Through our DECIMALS Fund we support eight teams of scientists who are modelling how SRM could affect their regions – in Argentina, Bangladesh, Benin, Indonesia, Iran, Ivory Coast, Jamaica and South Africa. This is part of a longer-term mission to build capacity and make sure that developing countries are central to global efforts to evaluate SRM.

Recently we hit a major milestone when a team the University of Cape Town published the first African research paper on SRM - also the first paper to come from our DECIMALS grants. In our April newsletter we featured an interview with the paper’s lead author, Mozambican climatologist Dr Izidine Pinto. His story is terrific – going from failing physics and chemistry at his overcrowded high school to becoming a lead author for the IPCC. You can read the interview here: http://www.srmgi.org/2020/04/15/interview-with-dr-izidine-pinto/. It also reviews the main conclusions of the research paper.

And if you’d like to stay in touch with SRMGI’s activities and hear about future DECIMALS publications, you can sign up for our newsletter here: https://mailchi.mp/78e782a7d7a6/srmgi-newsletter-sign-up As the year goes by, we should see the first SRM research papers to come from South America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, West Africa, and Southeast Asia.

Andy

Renaud de RICHTER

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Apr 29, 2020, 2:22:02 PM4/29/20

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Hi Andy,

Don't you forgot giving the link to that article and the title and references of it?

Bw

Renaud

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Andy Parker

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Apr 29, 2020, 2:40:24 PM4/29/20

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Hi Renaud,

I'd hoped to nudge people into reading the interview on their way to the paper, but for anyone wants to dash straight for the science - and it is worth the dash - you can read Pinto et al, 2020, here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL086047?af=R.

Here also is the plain language summary:

We investigate the potential impact of artificially reducing the amount of sunlight that reaches the Earth's surface on the climate over sub‐Saharan Africa. Human induced warming is projected to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, whose impacts are already being felt in vulnerable regions in sub‐Saharan Africa. Large volcanic eruptions can reduce the global mean temperature. Similarly, the continuous injection of microscopic particles in the upper atmosphere to artificially reduce some of the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface has been proposed as a measure to reduce global temperature while emissions are reduced. The impact of such actions on regional climate extremes is still unclear especially in sub‐Saharan Africa. We analyzed climate model simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble to explore the projected impact of artificial sunlight reduction on climate extremes sub‐Saharan Africa with continued emissions of greenhouse gases. We found that artificially altering the sunlight reduces mean and extreme temperatures, while the effect on rainfall is not as linear and remains uncertain.

Andy

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Andrew Lockley

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Apr 29, 2020, 3:44:35 PM4/29/20

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Andy, It would be great to hear from you as to the unique value you see from devolving this work to a local level. Is it in the selection of locally-impactful research projects, or is it in the utilization of local knowledge in the execution? Alternatively, do you see this mainly as representation and capacity building?

Andrew

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Cush Ngonzo Luwesi

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Apr 29, 2020, 4:01:04 PM4/29/20

to andrew....@gmail.com, Andy Parker, geoengineering

Dear Andy
Thanks for this. These results are not different from our 2012 study
for Kenya, though not directly linked to an experimental SRM
research.
Cheers!!!
Cush

On 4/29/20, Andrew Lockley <andrew....@gmail.com> wrote:
> Andy, It would be great to hear from you as to the unique value you see
> from devolving this work to a local level. Is it in the selection of
> locally-impactful research projects, or is it in the utilization of local
> knowledge in the execution? Alternatively, do you see this mainly as
> representation and capacity building?
>
> Andrew
>
> On Wed, 29 Apr 2020, 19:40 Andy Parker, <apar...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Hi Renaud,
>>
>> I'd hoped to nudge people into reading the interview on their way to the
>> paper, but for anyone wants to dash straight for the science - and it is
>> worth the dash - you can read Pinto et al, 2020, here:
>> https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL086047?af=R
>> .
>>
>> Here also is the plain language summary:
>>

>> *We investigate the potential impact of artificially reducing the amount

>> of sunlight that reaches the Earth's surface on the climate over
>> sub‐Saharan Africa. Human induced warming is projected to increase the
>> magnitude and frequency of extreme events, whose impacts are already
>> being
>> felt in vulnerable regions in sub‐Saharan Africa. Large volcanic
>> eruptions
>> can reduce the global mean temperature. Similarly, the continuous
>> injection
>> of microscopic particles in the upper atmosphere to artificially reduce
>> some of the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface has been
>> proposed as a measure to reduce global temperature while emissions are
>> reduced. The impact of such actions on regional climate extremes is still
>> unclear especially in sub‐Saharan Africa. We analyzed climate model
>> simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble to explore the
>> projected
>> impact of artificial sunlight reduction on climate extremes sub‐Saharan
>> Africa with continued emissions of greenhouse gases. We found that
>> artificially altering the sunlight reduces mean and extreme temperatures,

>> while the effect on rainfall is not as linear and remains uncertain.*

>>
>> Andy
>>
>>
>> On Wednesday, April 29, 2020 at 7:22:02 PM UTC+1, renaud.derichter wrote:
>>>
>>> Hi Andy,
>>> Don't you forgot giving the link to that article and the title and
>>> references of it?
>>> Bw
>>> Renaud
>>>
>>> Le mer. 29 avr. 2020 à 15:09, Andy Parker <apar...@gmail.com> a écrit :
>>>
>>>> Hi all,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> As some of you will know, the SRM Governance Initiative (SRMGI) funds a
>>>> number of pioneering SRM research projects in the Global South. Through
>>>> our DECIMALS

>>>> Fund <http://www.srmgi.org/decimals-fund/> we support eight teams of

>>>> scientists who are modelling how SRM could affect their regions – in
>>>> Argentina, Bangladesh, Benin, Indonesia, Iran, Ivory Coast, Jamaica and
>>>> South Africa. This is part of a longer-term mission to build capacity
>>>> and
>>>> make sure that developing countries are central to global efforts to
>>>> evaluate SRM.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Recently we hit a major milestone when a team the University of Cape
>>>> Town published the first African research paper on SRM - also the first
>>>> paper to come from our DECIMALS grants. In our April newsletter

>>>> <https://mailchi.mp/e97811bc85dc/srmgi-spring-2019-newsletter-2726360?fbclid=IwAR0f1WK_fxhQFQKIOH2dPra_b_vHJiPHLS2Pf0hkBnxTKDIEpZPWgIPL0i4>

>>>> we featured an interview with the paper’s lead author, Mozambican
>>>> climatologist Dr Izidine Pinto. His story is terrific – going from
>>>> failing
>>>> physics and chemistry at his overcrowded high school to becoming a lead
>>>> author for the IPCC. You can read the interview here:
>>>> http://www.srmgi.org/2020/04/15/interview-with-dr-izidine-pinto/. It
>>>> also reviews the main conclusions of the research paper.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> And if you’d like to stay in touch with SRMGI’s activities and hear
>>>> about future DECIMALS publications, you can sign up for our newsletter
>>>> here: https://mailchi.mp/78e782a7d7a6/srmgi-newsletter-sign-up

>>>> <https://mailchi.mp/78e782a7d7a6/srmgi-newsletter-sign-up?fbclid=IwAR3lV9HpMAKrpGqajxmxy11AZKPzZtxfQL7tx_otv4lMCQ6YeSSKKb0WJXY>

>>>> As the year goes by, we should see the first SRM research papers to
>>>> come from South America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, West Africa,
>>>> and
>>>> Southeast Asia.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Andy
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
>>>> Groups "geoengineering" group.
>>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send
>>>> an email to geoengi...@googlegroups.com.
>>>> To view this discussion on the web visit
>>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/61d7a535-01ec-41da-bcb4-5446aabbab42%40googlegroups.com

>>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/61d7a535-01ec-41da-bcb4-5446aabbab42%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>
>>>> .

>>>>
>>> --
>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
>> "geoengineering" group.
>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
>> email to geoengineerin...@googlegroups.com.
>> To view this discussion on the web visit
>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/76b02e31-a3c1-4a76-b0b9-92921a0ead62%40googlegroups.com

>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/76b02e31-a3c1-4a76-b0b9-92921a0ead62%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>
>> .

>>
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
> "geoengineering" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
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> To view this discussion on the web visit

Andy Parker

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Apr 30, 2020, 6:35:15 AM4/30/20

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Hi Andrew,

SRMGI's overarching goal is to build the capacity of developing countries so that they can play a central role in the evaluation, discussion and development of governance of SRM. There are many strong reasons for this and for an overview I recommend the Comment published in Nature a couple of years ago: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-03917-8. It was co-authored by a group of scholars who were the local partners for SRMGI’s workshops around the Global South and it sets out the political and moral arguments for developing-country leadership on SRM.

I see capacity building as an essential precondition for good governance, and one that's often overlooked. There is a tendency for people working on governance either to focus on the design of governance mechanisms or to try to bring SRM to the attention of governance bodies. These are useful and important activities, but without capacity building they are not sufficient. We need to think more about the environment in which governance proposals will be designed, shaped and debated. If the countries that would be most affected by SRM are to have a meaningful say in its governance, they will need their own confident experts to provide locally relevant advice, otherwise they will be restricted to approving or opposing governance proposals developed in the Global North. And there is no substitute for sustained critical engagement when it comes to capacity building – the kind of engagement that comes from research. There are no short cuts and in general you do not build expertise just by running workshops, delivering briefings or writing reports.

The DECIMALS grants are therefore a first small step rather than end in themselves. The eight teams and ~45 scientists are spending two years wrestling with the challenges of SRM and thinking about what it might mean for their regions. When their projects are concluded we will not only have more information on how SRM could affect local climates – which is useful – but more importantly we’ll have created a platform for much more sustained engagement in regions that are under-represented in the debate. We hope that the DECIMALS research project will provide platforms for wider conversations and more comprehensive research programmes in future – including social science, stakeholder engagement, and so on.

Andy

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Andrew Lockley

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Apr 30, 2020, 7:45:13 AM4/30/20

to Andy Parker, geoengineering

Andy

Your points are sensible, but deserve unpacking. I've provided a list of potential benefits of capacity building below. It would be great to hear from you on which are (not) important or (not) applicable.

*local EXPERTISE, eg in understanding what needs to be modelled, for understanding local impact

*fostering TRUST from local people and politicians (even if the guidance offered is similar/inferior to that available from non-local experts)

*providing a sense of REPRESENTATION, in the scientific process (ie a *perception* that local interests are voiced within science)

*pork barrel BENEFITS - ie placating those who see science as an industrial project, the benefits of which should be shared among nations (or at least to powerful interest groups, within those nations)

*PRIDE - ie that centralising research shows disrespect to non-participant nations

*INFANT INDUSTRY - ie seeing science as a precursor to industrial capacity (not as an industry, per se)

*RESILIENCE - a belief that centralised science is vulnerable eg to corruption, war, economic decline, etc.

*RATIONALISM - showing local people that policy is guided by good sense

*ASPIRATION - scientist as role model

*INTERNATIONALISM - science as a cooperation between nations, defusing potential conflicts.

*SOFT POWER - creating a sense of external guidance for less developed nations

*broad CAPACITY BUILDING - nurturing scientific capacity, for benefits *outside* of the specific project(s) - eg in fields such as biotechnology, computing

Some of these distinctions are quite subtle. I've probably missed something

Andrew Lockley

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Stephen Salter

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Apr 30, 2020, 8:59:03 AM4/30/20

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Andy

Will they be doing anything about marine cloud brightening?

Stephen

Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3DW, Scotland S.Sa...@ed.ac.uk, Tel +44 (0)131 662 1180 WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs, YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change

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