Moore's law for Everything

[John Clark]

Two years ago Sam Altman, the CEO of open AI which made GTP4, wrote an interesting article called Moore's law for Everything. Here is an excerpt:  

"In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions. And in the decades after that, they will do almost everything, including making new scientific discoveries that will expand our concept of “everything”.. And a recursive loop of innovation, as these smart machines themselves help us make smarter machines, will accelerate the revolution’s pace. The changes coming are unstoppable. If we embrace them and plan for them, we can use them to create a much fairer, happier, and more prosperous society.

The technological progress we make in the next 100 years will be far larger than all we’ve made since we first controlled fire and invented the wheel. We should therefore focus on taxing capital rather than labor, and we should use these taxes as an opportunity to directly distribute ownership and wealth to citizens. In other words, the best way to improve capitalism is to enable everyone to benefit from it directly as an equity owner. The future can be almost unimaginably great."

I agree with Mr. Altman that the changes will be huge and unstoppable, but I'm not as consistent as he is that they will all be for the benefit of human beings.  

Moore's Law for Everything

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

6tv

[spudb...@aol.com]

What we seem to need is a Singularity where we get breakthroughs in materials science, and medicine. I will guess that only when LMM's and other devices merge with low-error, high capacity quantum computers is when this will happen. 

Yeah, I like quantum-woo!

Only then, will the thunderous roar of the mighty Bussard Ramjet cleave the night sky!

"woo-woo-woo-woo!

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[John Clark]

On Fri, Apr 28, 2023 at 9:06 PM <spudb...@aol.com> wrote:

> What we seem to need is a Singularity where we get breakthroughs in materials science, and medicine. I will guess that only when LMM's and other devices merge with low-error, high capacity quantum computers is when this will happen.

Practical Quantum Computers would just be icing on the cake. I now believe with 98% certainty (by that I mean that if I was a betting man I would give 98% odds on it happening), that the Singularity will happen in less than 20 years with or without the help of Quantum Computers. And probably much less. And possibly much much less. I would not have had the courage to make that prediction one year ago, or even 4 months ago, but one hell of a lot has happened in the last few months.

Sam Altman said "The future can be almost unimaginably great" and I agree with him about that, in fact I'd change the "can be" to "will be'', but I'm not at all certain if it will be unimaginably good or unimaginably bad for the human race. The only thing I'm certain of is that we live in interesting times, if things beyond that could be predicted with certainty then it wouldn't be a Singularity.  

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

wbs

[spudb...@aol.com]

Yes,John and a month ago, Kurzweil predicted the being of physical immortality via Drexler's medical nanobots. 2030.

QC must be the trigger because it's power can only enhance what is the mind. For me, whether conscious or not, I want the machinery to speed up scientific, technological, achievement by decades and centuries. Living like The Jetson's is the goal, with Rosy the Robot as optional. 

Neural chips from Musk? Buy me a 12 pack!

-----Original Message-----
From: John Clark <johnk...@gmail.com>

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