Time Until Superintelligence and the Singularity, 20 Years or 8 Years or 2?

[John Clark]

Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20?

 John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

ibtr

[spudb...@aol.com]

Everyth...@googlegroups.com
Whenever AI is installed on reliable quantum computers. Yes above 100 successful operations per second I will hold with your prediction.

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[John Clark]

On Tue, Jul 11, 2023 at 1:46 PM 'spudb...@aol.com' via Everything List <everyth...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

> Whenever AI is installed on reliable quantum computers. Yes above 100 successful operations per second I will hold with your prediction.

 OpenAI, the company that made GPT-4, didn't even take Quantum Computing into account when it said that Superhuman intelligence could arrive in this decade, not in a decade but IN THIS DECADE.  Quantum Computing would just be icing on the cake. 

 John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis 

qcn

[spudb...@aol.com]

I am following along the March statement by Ray Kurzweil forecasting a first push at human immortality at 2030. For this to occur something revolutionary must happen with AI. What that seems to be is QC. Does it require QC? You would know, and all I would do is make a guess. I think it would be a super boost if we combine AI with The Quantum. How soon? 

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[John Clark]

On Tue, Jul 11, 2023 at 9:19 PM 'spudb...@aol.com' via Everything List <everyth...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

> I am following along the March statement by Ray Kurzweil forecasting a first push at human immortality at 2030. For this to occur something revolutionary must happen with AI.

Yes.

>What that seems to be is QC. Does it require QC?

No. When Quantum Computing becomes practical it will make AI's evolve even faster but it's not necessary for that 2030 date to be true, for the AI Singularity to occur all that's required is that progress with conventional AI, which makes no use of Quantum Computing, continue at the same rate as it has in the last year. But of course if it really is the Singularity that we're approaching then the rate of progress will not remain constant but will accelerate. AI is already improving algorithms that humans have tinkered with over for many decades because the world uses them trillions of times a day so even a small improvement can make a huge difference; of course AIs have also made use of these new improved programs, and machines improving machines is a sign of a positive feedback loop. And it's also a sign of the Singularity.

 

> You would know, and all I would do is make a guess. I think it would be a super boost if we combine AI with The Quantum. How soon? 

All anybody, including me, can do is make a guess. It's possible that some roadblock will show up that will retard the evolution of AI, but so far there's no sign of such a thing, so Kurzweil's prediction that the Singularity will occur as early as 2030 does not seem like a crazy prediction to me, although a year ago or even 6 months ago I would've said it was. As for what will happen after the Singularity I don't know. Yes human immortality is a possibility, but so is the complete extinction of the entire human race; and it's impossible to even give odds about which of those 2 possibilities is more likely. We lack the tools to even make an educated guess about probabilities; if we could do better it wouldn't be a Singularity.  

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis 

bbt