https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M
> Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth.
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Brent; I have no idea what you mean. AG
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What would be your Bayesian prior estimate for intelligent life emerging from Earth? AG
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My Bayesian prior estimate would be around 10^{-12}, based on my estimate that at most 1000 planets in a galaxy might have complex life and then any ETI has a small time stamp on that.
LCOn Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 3:53:09 PM UTC-5 agrays...@gmail.com wrote:Brent; what are your priors? I am interested in your inferences. AGOn Monday, August 15, 2022 at 2:38:44 PM UTC-6 meeke...@gmail.com wrote:That's not my prior.BrentOn 8/15/2022 12:20 AM, Alan Grayson wrote:Since we have zero information whether the guy is lying or not, we have to assume a 50% probability that he's telling the truth. Is there any "scientist" here willing to go that far? AGOn Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 3:45:43 PM UTC-6 Alan Grayson wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk0INH_DI1M--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group.To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-li...@googlegroups.com.To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/5cf40055-08b7-49a4-9951-1da95444bdfan%40googlegroups.com.
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