Is AI intelligence really doubling every seven months? Might it be faster?

[John Clark]

The AI futures project has updated their forecast ( AI 2027 ) that came out about a month ago, things are moving so fast frequent updates are necessary: 

Beyond The Last Horizon

Progress is so fast that just a few days after the updated report there was enough information to make the graph seen above; the AI project people conclude from it that "OpenAI’s newest models’ time horizons seem to be on the faster curve we predicted, rather than the slower seven-month doubling time". Keep in mind that the above graph is an exponential graph, so a straight line means exponential growth, and anything above that line means super exponential growth.

The authors conclude that today "AIs are able to do quick tasks, but not long tasks. But they’re getting better at long tasks! So far it looks like they can do tasks of about 15 - 60 minutes, and that number doubles somewhere between every 3 - 7 months. These numbers are most applicable to coding, and uncertainty increases the further we go from that domain. AIs seem on track to master coding before they master any other comparatively economically important sector.  That's interesting because if there’s an intelligence explosion, superhuman coder AIs are probably when it starts in earnest. Our best guess is AIs will become as good or better than the very best human computer programmers sometime in 2027, although with big error bars and multiple asterisks. We think these human-level coders will be enough to start the intelligence explosion, which is why we place it in 2027 or 2028."

It looks like Ray Kurzweil's prediction that the Singularity will happen in 2045 is way too conservative.

And to think, some people are still getting all hot and bothered over trivialities like illegal immigration and transsexual men in women's sports. 

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

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[Cosmin Visan]

Given that AI has 0 intelligence, it actually doubles every nanosecond:

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[John Clark]

On Thu, Apr 24, 2025 at 10:30 AM 'Cosmin Visan' via Everything List <everyth...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

> Given that AI has 0 intelligence...

... and thus just before the last human being in existence was vaporized he turned to Mr. Jupiter Brain and said "I still think I'm smarter than you". 

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

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[Cosmin Visan]

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[Russell Standish]

The data shown on that graph is inconclusive between exponential or
super-exponential growth.

In theory, super-exponential (ie hyperbolic) growth won't happen until
AIs start to design themselves.

2027? Maybe, but there's a lot of hype in this field. But sometime in
the near future - yes it's looking likely.

On Thu, Apr 24, 2025 at 08:39:45AM -0400, John Clark wrote:
> The AI futures project has updated their forecast ( AI 2027 ) that came out
> about a month ago, things are moving so fast frequent updates are necessary: 
>
> Beyond The Last Horizon
>

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--

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders hpc...@hpcoders.com.au
http://www.hpcoders.com.au
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[Cosmin Visan]

HYPER-DYPER-EXPONENTIAL-THROUGH-THE-ROOOOF!!!!!

[John Clark]

On Tue, Apr 29, 2025 at 10:07 PM Russell Standish <li...@hpcoders.com.au> wrote:

> there's a lot of hype in this field.

I believe that in the entire history of the world there has never been a news story more UNDER hyped than AI.  As of today the silly controversy over transsexual men in women's sports has a higher place in the American zeitgeist than AI, and I don't believe it's much higher in other parts of the world. Of course that will soon change but probably not soon enough. 

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

4u2

[Cosmin Visan]

AI should compete in women sports!!! What is a woman???