On 19-08-2021 21:21, 'Brent Meeker' via Everything List wrote:
> On 8/19/2021 2:47 AM, John Clark wrote:
>
>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:11 PM <
spudb...@aol.com> wrote:
>>
>>> _> I would have considered using thermobaric weapons to blast them
>>> out of the mountains,_
>>
>> I asked for your solution to win the war in Afghanistan and turn the
>> country into a stable peaceful democracy, and this is what I get.
>
> I think I do know how to do that; at least it's what I would try if I
> were President. I'd have flooded the country with television sets and
> broadcasts via satellites with plenty of Islamic content but leaning
> to the Sufi, plus real world news and science and Hollywood
> entertainment. I actually think Western culture, science, literature,
> philosophy, art is superior in the sense that given exposure and a
> choice, people will choose it. Sure, it would take a generation,
> maybe two, but it would be relatively peaceful and in the end
> Afghanistan might become an ally. It's also what I would try with
> Iran.
>
> Brent
For people to be to choose anything freely would have required making
sure intimidation by the Taliban would be stopped. That would have
required sending in enough soldiers so that the international force
would have a presence in every inhabited part of the country. In 2002
the Afghans wanted to have more soldiers on their soil so that they
could get rid of intimidation by Taliban and other armed groups.
The reason why the mission failed was that we didn't sent in enough
soldiers. This allowed the Taliban to have a presence in villages with
no presence of international forces or the national army. They would
move out when soldiers were on their way to move in, making it clear to
the local population that they would be killed if they dare to
collaborate with the soldiers. They would then move into other
unoccupied villages, kill people who collaborated with the national army
or international soldiers, set up their bomb factories etc.
The Taliban did have hideouts in the mountains but they could not live
their indefinitely, they would have run out of supplies eventually. So,
access to villages was crucial and the small number of soldiers of no
more than a few hundred thousand made it possible for the Taliban to
succeed.
It would have required a few million soldiers to completely pacify
Afghanistan, which would be been easy to do for the World community.
Hardly any military actions would be needed, because the insurgents
would be denied access to villages for supplies. bomb factories etc. as
everything would be occupied. Then the Afghans would be able to pursue
the efforts needed needed to build up a democratic society.
The reason we could not do this, was because we were biased against
sending in a very large occupation force, based on a totally flawed
understanding of history (e.g. that the Soviets and British failed
there) Also we started the Iraq war which would have made it much more
difficult to do something large w.r.t. Afghanistan.
The Soviets failed in Afghanistan, but because of their large number of
soldiers, but because they were forcing a ideology on the Afghans that
the Afghans did not support. Large number of forces does, in general,
help to suppress an insurgency. For example, the Soviets successfully
suppressed the uprisings in Hungary and Czechoslovakia by sending in
large numbers of forces. The Chinese have successfully repressed the
population in Tibet and now also in Xingjian using a large number of
force. So, even if you do attempt to push an ideology down the throats
of people against their will, that can actually succeed.
So, if we don't impose anything on the population, if the population by
and large supports a large and strong international presence, then a
mission involving a large force is pretty much guaranteed to succeed in
at least the limited goal of stabilization and pacifying the country.
Then with the country completely pacified, the population could set up
their institutions and build up an inclusive democratic system.
Saibal