Ukraine

[John Clark]

Thomas Friedman said something I thought was very interesting regarding Putin's invasion of Ukraine and NATO ally Poland: 

"Poland is Russia’s key land bridge to Germany and the rest of Western Europe. If Poland just halts truck and rail traffic from Russia to Germany, as it should,  it would create immediate havoc for Russia’s economy, because the alternative routes are complicated and need to go through a now very dangerous Ukraine. Anyone up for an anti-Putin trucker strike to prevent Russian goods going to and through Western Europe by way of Poland?  Watch that space. Some super-empowered Polish citizens with a few roadblocks, pickups and smartphones could choke Russia’s whole economy in this wired world."

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

l0p

[Brent Meeker]

I'm fine with seizing the money of Putin and his oligarch buddies.  I'm less sanguine about just impoverishing the Russian people.  They might throw out Putin...but alternatively they might support him as the Great Leader to take revenge on the West for impoverishment.  Desperate people do desperate things.

Brent

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[John Clark]

On Sat, Feb 26, 2022 at 5:41 PM Brent Meeker <meeke...@gmail.com> wrote:

> I'm fine with seizing the money of Putin and his oligarch buddies.  I'm less sanguine about just impoverishing the Russian people. 

When one country decides to make war on it's neighbor misery is the inevitable result, certainly the people of Ukraine are feeling it and I'm certain the people of Russia will too. Call me a monster if you want but at this moment I feel far less sympathy for the invading country than the country being invaded.

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

mir7

[Brent Meeker]

It's not a question of sympathy, but of utility.

Brent

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[Bruce Kellett]

On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 10:04 AM Brent Meeker <meeke...@gmail.com> wrote:

It's not a question of sympathy, but of utility.

What would happen if NATO launched an all-out cruise missile assault on Moscow and Petersburg? Not nuclear, purely conventional. No "boots on the ground", but some serious rethinking needed on Russia's part. Just as the retaliatory British bombing of Berlin in WW2 caused Hitler to loose his cool and gave Britain an advantage. Of course, Putin might respond with a nuclear assault, but that would certainly render his empire plans futile. It would be a gamble, but I think the odds would be in favour of making Putin pause rather than escalating further.

Bruce

[Brent Meeker]

One problem is that the Russians won't know whether they are nukes or not until they explode.  I wonder how good our back channels are with the Russian military.  I doubt that they are very happy with Putin.  The Ukranians seem very willing to fight and I'd bet they will be a lot more motivated than a bunch of Russian conscripts.  So I think if we keep them supplied they may make it too expensive in money, blood, and prestige.

More worrying it what will we do when Xi starts massing troops on the mainland opposite Taiwan?  We're not in so good a position to impose economic pressure on China.

Brent

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[Bruce Kellett]

On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 11:38 AM Brent Meeker <meeke...@gmail.com> wrote:

One problem is that the Russians won't know whether they are nukes or not until they explode.

That problem can be overcome by simply telling them that the missiles are not nuclear. There are channels of communication, after all.

I wonder how good our back channels are with the Russian military.  I doubt that they are very happy with Putin.  The Ukranians seem very willing to fight and I'd bet they will be a lot more motivated than a bunch of Russian conscripts.  So I think if we keep them supplied they may make it too expensive in money, blood, and prestige.

More worrying it what will we do when Xi starts massing troops on the mainland opposite Taiwan?  We're not in so good a position to impose economic pressure on China.

I doubt that economic sanctions will do much good in the short term with Russia, either. I think you are right -- the best bet is that the Ukrainian resistance will wear the invaders down -- they expected a short fight and easy victory, after all. Opposition is growing within Russia itself. The dead bodies will be a big influence..... Russia will not want another Afghanistan, or Chechnya.......

Bruce

[smitra]

We should have acted weeks earlier. When it became clear that Russia was
planning some sort of a large scale military assault, we should have
stopped Putin right there by sending large amounts of arms including
Patriot systems to Ukraine. Russia could then not have launched the
military assault it is engaging in now.

Russian protests should have been rebuffed by saying that Ukraine is a
sovereign country and it is therefore allowed to request military
assistance. Also, Russia was at the time denying it was planning to
attack Ukraine, so why would they complain? We should then have engaged
with Russia about NATO membership and the military aid we were giving.
We should have made it clear to Russia that the military aid would come
with a military deployment, this would be limited to the de-facto
borders of Ukraine, so there would be no military action against the
Russian and rebel controlled parts.

This intervention would thus have blocked the Russian military action,
it would have given the initiatives to the West about discussions about
the future of Ukraine, NATO membership for Ukraine etc. We could have
made a deal with Russia about Ukraine not becoming a NATO member (this
wasn't in the cards anytime soon anyway). Ukraine would likely be more
willing to voluntarily agree to not seek NATO membership if a practical
alternative that blocks Russian aggression was already implemented. So,
NATO would not have to change its stance about sovereign countries being
able to seek NATO membership.

But it's now too late, Russia can only be slowed down a bit. Russia has
clearly underestimated the Ukrainian army. But it's also the case that
Russia has engaged Ukraine in a rather cautious way compared to the way
it was going about things in Syria and Chechnya. So, Russia can escalate
a whole lot more. Sanctions will cause economic problems for Russia, but
given that sanctions did little to stop Assad, even Maduro is still in
power despite the abject poverty in that country, I'm not optimistic
about sanctions against Russia being able to make much of a difference.

Basically, the doctrine we need to stick to is act from a position of
strength, hit hard when and where you can hit hard with maximum effect.
Also to avoid engaging from a position of weakness, and fighting for
ever smaller gains with more and more effort. We should now let Putin
fail in Ukraine by his own mistakes and focus our attention to other
potential flashpoints.

Saibal

>> _ > I'm fine with seizing the money of Putin and his oligarch

>> buddies. I'm less sanguine about just impoverishing the Russian

>> people. _

>>
>> When one country decides to make war on it's neighbor misery is the
>> inevitable result, certainly the people of Ukraine are feeling it
>> and I'm certain the people of Russia will too. Call me a monster if
>> you want but at this moment I feel far less sympathy for the
>> invading country than the country being invaded.
>

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[John Clark]

On Sat, Feb 26, 2022 at 6:13 PM Bruce Kellett <bhkel...@gmail.com> wrote:

> What would happen if NATO launched an all-out cruise missile assault on Moscow and Petersburg? Not nuclear, purely conventional.

The short answer is I don't know. Nobody can say for sure what would happen if NATO launched an all-out cruise missile assault on Moscow and Petersburg, just as nobody can say for sure what would happen if Russia launched a all-out cruise missile attack on Manhattan and Chicago, but one outcome that is not at all unlikely is that it would start World War III and result in the destruction of civilization and possibly the extinction of the entire human race. I am not a big enough gambler to want to take that risk.

> Putin might respond with a nuclear assault, but that would certainly render his empire plans futile.

It's true that starting World War III would not be in Putin's long-term best interests, but recent events indicate that Putin may no longer be an entirely rational actor. And for some dictators bringing about the extinction of the human race would be less undesirable than being personally embarrassed, and at this point backing down would be personally embarrassing for Putin.

> I think the odds would be in favour of making Putin pause rather than escalating further.

Perhaps so, but what are the odds that what you think is correct? And are you willing to face the consequences if you are wrong?  Are you so sure that you're correct that you're willing to bet your life and the life of everybody you know on it?

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

0oi

 

[Lawrence Crowell]

If American or NATO forces start shooting with Russian military it would project us into a new world. The whole situation could easily escalate into a nuclear conflict. The problem is that given the rapid technology involved there would be a compulsion to act swiftly and pre-emptively.

LC

[John Clark]

On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 6:11 AM smitra <smi...@zonnet.nl> wrote:

> Russian protests should have been rebuffed by saying that Ukraine is a
sovereign country and it is therefore allowed to request military
assistance.

Russian protests were rebuffed and America did send military aid to Ukraine and is continuing to do so. 

> We should have acted weeks earlier. When it became clear that Russia was
planning some sort of a large scale military assault, we should have
stopped Putin right there by sending large amounts of arms including
Patriot systems to Ukraine.

The latest iteration of the patriot missile system is a very sophisticated piece of equipment that needs highly trained technicians to set up, troubleshoot, and operate. No Ukrainian has received any training on it and it would take not weeks but the better part of a year for anyone to get up to speed. So if Patriot missiles are to be sent to Ukraine then American soldiers will have to be sent too as they are the only ones that have sufficient training. And American boots on the ground would be a huge step along the escalation road that dead ends at total war.  It should be remembered that although Russia is an economic pygmy with a GNP less than that of California or even Texas, it's still a military superpower with thousands of thermonuclear warheads at its disposal. And I also remind you that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it takes a unanimous vote to bring in a new member, there are 30 members in NATO and as of today I don't believe a single one would approve of Ukraine joining.

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

2to

[Philip Benjamin]

[Philip Benjamin]
There is no place for regrets in life especially in leadership and governmental authority, only warnings and consequences. The lessons of cowardly appeasements of tyrants are aplenty. However they are inapplicable to the brains of Marxist pagans with UC such as the WAMP. There are politicians today who were once classical Liberals (not necessarily pagans) but became promoters of the KKK, lynching, slavery, segregation, discrimination, Civil War etc., but have now morphed into baby-lynching, Progressivism, antagonism for religious freedom, intolerant of free speech, free enterprise etc. except for themselves. These are really fellow travelers with Marxist pagans with UC, who will agin produce pagan tyrants like Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini. They hate freedom loving citizens with AC!! Such corrupt imbecilic politicians at the helm of affairs in a nation that is the product of "Two Great Awakenings" (historical and historic) deceive and fool naive public with never feasible freebees and government largesse. And the result is Afghan fiasco and Ukrainian tragedy- both creations of the products of WAMP.
Philip Benjamin
Non-Conformist

everyth...@googlegroups.com; Subject: Re: Ukraine
[Saibal]
We should have acted weeks earlier. When it became clear that Russia was planning some sort of a large scale military assault, we should have stopped .....Russian protests should have been rebuffed by saying that Ukraine is a sovereign country and it is therefore allowed to request military assistance. ....
We should have made it clear to Russia that the military aid would come with a military deployment, .....
But it's now too late, Russia can only be slowed down a bit. Russia has clearly underestimated the Ukrainian army. .....

Basically, the doctrine we need to stick to is act from a position of strength, hit hard when and where you can hit hard with maximum effect.

Also to avoid engaging from a position of weakness, .....We should now let Putin fail in Ukraine by his own mistakes and focus our attention to other potential flashpoints.

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> [1].
>
>
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> [1]

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[Brent Meeker]

I agree.  I think the Ukranians may sustain a resistance which will
eventually cause Russia to withdraw, but that will take time.  More
immediately I wonder if Finland and Sweden will want to join NATO?

Brent

[Henrik Ohrstrom]

Well, not really but Tsar Putin might succeed in changing a lot of minds....

We are obviously sending arms for free to Ukraine right now.

Interesting times indeed.

/henrik 

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[Bruce Kellett]

Perhaps the old saying: "Better dead than red." is relevant here. Appeasement of tyrants is never in the best interests of anyone. The brave people of Ukraine are facing this decision every day -- do they resist, and throw Molotov cocktails at tanks in the knowledge that they may be shot? Or do they lie down and submit to Putin's tyranny?

Bruce

[John Clark]

On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 4:52 PM Bruce Kellett <bhkel...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Perhaps the old saying: "Better dead than red." is relevant here.

I have no objection if you wish to take that course of action, but I do object to you forceing others, and in particular me, to die along with you.

> The brave people of Ukraine are facing this decision every day -- do they resist, and throw Molotov cocktails at tanks in the knowledge that they may be shot? Or do they lie down and submit to Putin's tyranny?

If my own city was being attacked by Putin I might be throwing Molotov cocktails at tanks too, but it is not so I'm not willing to risk my life , much less the life of the entire human race, on schemes that are not well thought out. 

> Or do they lie down and submit to Putin's tyranny?

Of course not, nobody is suggesting we just lie down and submit to Putin, there are things that I think would be affective that we can do to oppose him and I've already listed several of them on this list, like stopping the transmission of goods from Russia that go thru Poland, and going after the hundreds of billions of dollars Putin and his cronies have have embezzled and stashed in western countries. And those measures don't seem likely to start World War III.  And of course we should continue to send arms to help the Ukrainians defend themselves.

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis

iac

[spudb...@aol.com]

Right now, it's time to remain easy, with an understanding that what occurred in Europe during Merkel's reign plus the US withdrawal in Afghanistan may have led to a change in perceptions in Moscow, and in Beijing. This is wholly Putin's war now, and from what I just read is not concerned with the re-establishment of the Soviet Union (as I had thought) but the re-establishment of the Russian Empire. We;ll see if this seems true, and what needs to be done to get us all into 'survival mode.'

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[spudb...@aol.com]

I have read that they now fear a Putin invasion, being rather immanent. 

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[smitra]

NATO membership may not all be that relevant in practice. Russia isn't
performing all that well in Ukraine. Sweden and Finland should have
little difficulty in stopping a conventional Russian attack. And there
is no question that a nuclear attack by Russia on any country would
trigger a nuclear counterstrike.

Not being part of NATO may have some benefits too. If Sweden intervenes
in Ukraine in some way and Russia sees that as a act of war, then that
doesn't bring NATO directly into the conflict. If the calculation is
that Sweden is strong enough to resist a Russian attack, then it would
be useful to have such non-NATO members like Sweden. And not being part
of NATO does not mean that NATO cannot choose to intervene on behalf of
such a non-NATO country.

Saibal

[Telmo Menezes]

Am Mo, 28. Feb 2022, um 11:56, schrieb smitra:
> NATO membership may not all be that relevant in practice. Russia isn't
> performing all that well in Ukraine. Sweden and Finland should have
> little difficulty in stopping a conventional Russian attack.

NATO membership is a deterrent to conventional attacks, exactly of the type that is happening in Ukraine. If Ukraine were a NATO member, then NATO would be obliged to respond as if all of the NATO countries were under attack. Which means that Putin would not have started this to begin with, unless he is even more deranged than he looks. And maybe then he would be taken care of internally. As the old saying goes: "Russian love their children too". NATO is based on an obvious game-theoretic solution that has been working spectacularly well so far.

Also Sweden and Finland are EU members, which makes them de-facto NATO members. There is no way in hell that Europe would tolerate such a move on an EU member and not get military directly involved if needed.

This is precisely the reason why NATO and EU are constantly under attack by its enemies. The more the likes of Putin and Xi Jinping try to undermine these transnational organizations, the more I believe that they work in my best interest, despite their many flaws.

I believe that Russia has been very successful in the last decade in helping to divide the west, and they were particularly successful in convincing significant parts of the US and UK electorate that Europe is their real enemy. But now I believe that he overplayed his hand. In one single weekend he managed to end Swedish neutrality, end German anti-militarism and trigger the first ever military action by the EU, which is not buying fighter jets to support Ukraine. And now most of his neighbors will be more likely to be accepted under the blanket of NATO and EU. He is a total failure, just like Trump and all the other imbeciles who think that we are still in the XX century.

> And there
> is no question that a nuclear attack by Russia on any country would
> trigger a nuclear counterstrike.

I am not so sure. Nuclear strikes and counter-strikes are the human psychology equivalent of black holes in physics. Normal intuitions no longer apply. We will only know for sure what happens once it happens. I hope that we never find out.

Telmo

[Brent Meeker]

On 2/28/2022 2:56 AM, smitra wrote:
> NATO membership may not all be that relevant in practice. Russia isn't
> performing all that well in Ukraine. Sweden and Finland should have
> little difficulty in stopping a conventional Russian attack. And there
> is no question that a nuclear attack by Russia on any country would
> trigger a nuclear counterstrike.
>
> Not being part of NATO may have some benefits too. If Sweden
> intervenes in Ukraine in some way and Russia sees that as a act of
> war, then that doesn't bring NATO directly into the conflict. If the
> calculation is that Sweden is strong enough to resist a Russian
> attack, then it would be useful to have such non-NATO members like
> Sweden. And not being part of NATO does not mean that NATO cannot
> choose to intervene on behalf of such a non-NATO country.
>
> Saibal

I don't disagree.  But the main point of a defensive alliance like NATO
is deter attacks rather than actually fight them.  A Russian attack on
Sweden would have to go thru Finland.  When Russia tried that in the
Winter War it did not go well for them.

Brent

[Brent Meeker]

On 2/28/2022 7:07 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote:
> Am Mo, 28. Feb 2022, um 11:56, schrieb smitra:
>> NATO membership may not all be that relevant in practice. Russia isn't
>> performing all that well in Ukraine. Sweden and Finland should have
>> little difficulty in stopping a conventional Russian attack.
> NATO membership is a deterrent to conventional attacks, exactly of the type that is happening in Ukraine. If Ukraine were a NATO member, then NATO would be obliged to respond as if all of the NATO countries were under attack. Which means that Putin would not have started this to begin with, unless he is even more deranged than he looks. And maybe then he would be taken care of internally. As the old saying goes: "Russian love their children too". NATO is based on an obvious game-theoretic solution that has been working spectacularly well so far.
>
> Also Sweden and Finland are EU members, which makes them de-facto NATO members. There is no way in hell that Europe would tolerate such a move on an EU member and not get military directly involved if needed.
>
> This is precisely the reason why NATO and EU are constantly under attack by its enemies. The more the likes of Putin and Xi Jinping try to undermine these transnational organizations, the more I believe that they work in my best interest, despite their many flaws.

I agree.  The biggest disaster that Trump visited upon us was to
withdraw the U.S. from the TransPacific Partnership.  It's an
organization that could have contained Chinese expansionism.

Brent

[spudb...@aol.com]

An optimist! There's one in every crowd. 

>>> an email to everything-list+unsub...@googlegroups.com.

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[spudb...@aol.com]

So what are you Nords going to do when Vlad appears? Apparently, Vlad is not as I once thought seeking to rebuild the Soviet Union, but seeking to rebuild some sort of Czarist empire, if I believe what I read? Do you folks have enough AT-4's to stop Putin's Armata's? I recall that during Vietnam, Sweden refused to sell the US its Carl Gustav submachine guns, so the UD (Colt) came up with our M-76 subguns. I have, on the good side of the ledger, seen enough, even symbolic global resistance to Vlad's doing a 21st century Conquistador. 

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