http://townhall.com/columnists/benshapiro/2020/05/06/what-are-we-trying-to-accomplish-with-coronavirus-policy-n2568228
What Are We Trying to Accomplish With Coronavirus Policy?
Ben ShapiroBen Shapiro|Posted: May 06, 2020 12:01 AM
As Americans debate how to reopen our society in the wake of COVID-19, we
seem to be breaking down into three groups: first, those who believe the
virus isn't particularly serious and desperately want to reopen everything
as soon as possible (a small minority of Americans, by polling data);
second, those who believe the virus is extraordinarily serious and want
everything to remain closed as long as possible (a significant minority of
Americans); and third, those who believe the virus is extraordinarily
serious, that the economic damage brought about by COVID-19 is
extraordinarily serious and that we will have to reopen in considered
fashion (the vast majority of Americans). While politicians on either side
of the debate hope to position their opponents as advocates of either group
1 or group 2, the reality is that the honest debate is happening within
group 3.
So, what does a considered coronavirus reopening strategy look like?
That question rests on a deeper question: What assumptions are we making?
Obviously, we all want to reduce deaths to the lowest possible number. But
what assumptions are baked into our policy recommendations? Are we assuming
a vaccine will come along in three, six, 12 or 18 months? Are we assuming
herd immunity conferred at 60% of the population, or 80%? Are we assuming
therapeutic measures that would reduce the infection fatality rates by 20,
30 or 100%, and within what period of time?
We also want to reduce economic harm to the lowest possible level. Again, we
must ask what assumptions are baked into our policy recommendations. Are we
assuming that a 75% reduction in restaurant seating will save 50% of
restaurants? Are we assuming that shoppers will continue to socially
distance six months from now? Are we assuming that the government will be
able to shoulder trillions more in debt despite an underlying decrease in
international appetite for such debt?
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The question of assumptions is key to our policymaking. That's because if we
assume the worst -- no therapeutics that seriously knock down the infection
fatality rate, no vaccines for 18 months or more and an economy that simply
cannot function at one-quarter or even half of normal capacity -- then we
are forced to a simple conclusion: In the absence of any significant change
to the status quo, we must pursue a strategy of so-called controlled
avalanche.
That strategy has been coined by Israeli scientists, who suggest that the
best strategy for reducing deaths while achieving herd immunity would be to
tranche populations and then expose the least-vulnerable populations to
COVID-19 in order to let them develop antibodies -- in essence, performing
with public health the same function ski resorts perform when they create
small avalanches in order to avoid a major avalanche. The simple fact is
that 40% to 50%, at low estimate, of all deaths in the European Union from
COVID-19 have occurred at nursing homes; the same is true in California. Had
the authorities properly protected nursing homes, the infection fatality
rate across the industrialized world could be half of the current rate.
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It is also true that the infection fatality rate for COVID-19 ranges widely
by age: As of late April, of the 37,308 deaths recorded by the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention, just 1,036 were people under the age of 45,
and just 51 were below the age of 25. Even among younger populations, the
vast majority of deaths were people with underlying conditions. Israeli
scientists suggest that protecting the elderly and the vulnerable and then
allowing herd immunity to develop among the least vulnerable would radically
reduce overall mortality (by over 40%), reduce the maximum number of people
in need for ICUs (by over 60%) and decrease the time required to allow
freedom to low-risk populations by months.
This is obviously not a foolproof strategy -- there is no foolproof
strategy. But it may be a better strategy than simply hoping for the best
while watching the world economy implode, even as we know that our deepest
hopes for a deus ex machina may go unrewarded.