ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းႏွင့္ ဗီယက္နန္သို႕ ဦးတည္တိုက္ခတ္မည့္ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT

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mmweather-admin

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Sep 27, 2011, 11:37:24 PM9/27/11
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ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းႏွင့္ ဗီယက္နန္သို႕ ဦးတည္တိုက္ခတ္မည့္ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT

By mmweather.ygn, on September 28th, 2011

ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္သို႕ ေရာက္ရွိလာသည့္တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT(20W) သည္ အဆင့္-၁(CAT-1) တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္းအျဖစ္ဆက္လက္တည္ရွိေနၿပီး အေနာက္-အေနာက္ေျမာက္ဘက္သို႕ တစ္နာရီ ၂ဝ ကီလိုမီတာ(12.43 mph) ႏွဳန္းျဖင့္ ေရြ႕လ်ားလွ်က္ရွိပါသည္။ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ၄ နာရီ တြင္ ရရွိသည့္ data မ်ားအရ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT ၏တည္ေနရာမွာ ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္း အေရွ႕-အေရွ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ ၇၁၆ ကီလိုမီတာ(445 miles) ခန္႕တြင္ ျဖစ္ၿပီး မုန္တိုင္းအရြယ္အစားပိုမိုႀကီးမားလာကာ အခ်င္း ၁၁၁ဝ ကီလိုမီတာ(689.722 miles) ခန္႕ ျဖစ္လာေၾကာင္း သိရပါသည္။

မုန္တိုင္းဗဟိုတြင္ ေလတိုက္ႏွဳန္းတစ္နာရီ ၁၄ဝ မွ ၁၆၅ ကီလိုမီတာ(တစ္နာရီ ၈၇ မိုင္ မွ ၁ဝ၂.၅ မိုင္ ႏွဳန္း) အထိရွိၿပီး၊ မုန္တိုင္းဒီလွဳိင္းအျမင့္ ၂၆ ေပ(၈ မီတာ ခန္႕)အထိ ရွိေနေၾကာင္း သိရပါသည္။

တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT သည္ ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းအား (၂၉-၉-၁၁) ၾကာသပေတးေန႕ ညေနပိုင္း(သို႕မဟုတ္)(၃ဝ-၉-၁၁)  ေသာၾကာေန႕ နံနက္ပိုင္းတြင္ ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္တိုက္ခတ္ၿပီး တံုကင္ပင္လယ္ေကြ႕သို႕ ျပန္လည္ဆင္းသက္ကာ ကုန္းတြင္းသို႕ ေနာက္ဆံုးအႀကိမ္ေက်ာ္ျဖတ္တိုက္ခတ္မႈ အျဖစ္ (၁-၁ဝ-၁၁) စေနေန႕ တြင္ ဗီယက္နန္ ေျမာက္ပိုင္းကမ္းေျခကို ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ဝင္ေရာက္မည္ဟု Typhoon2000 မွ ခန္႕မွန္းခ်က္ေပးထားပါသည္။

ယခု Post တင္ျပခ်ိန္တြင္ ေနာက္ဆံုးရရွိသည့္ Typhoon2000 မွ မုန္တိုင္းအခ်က္အလက္ မူရင္းမ်ားကို ေအာက္တြင္ တင္ျပထားပါသည္ -

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION -
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed September 28 2011
Location of Eye: 17.5º N Lat 117.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 350 km West of Vigan City
Distance 2: 355 km WNW of San Fernando City
Distance 3: 378 km WSW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 392 km WNW of Baguio City
Distance 5: 527 km NW of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 604 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 7: 638 km SE of Macau
Distance 8: 716 km ESE of Hainan, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km (600 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Wed Sep 28

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NESAT (PEDRING) will continue to move generally west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will continue to traverse the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea…leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today…and making landfall over Hainan Island Thursday evening or early Friday. NESAT will eventually move into the Gulf of Tonkin as a downgraded Tropical Storm…and make its last landfall over Northern Vietnam early Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Re-strengthening of this system will be expected as it moves across the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center…and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles). NESAT is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,100 kilometers (600 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its WNW track across the South China Sea…intensifying as it approaches Hainan Island [2AM SEP 29: 18.7N 113.7E @ 150kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:
Over the northern part of Hainan…weakens slightly [2AM SEP 30: 19.8N 110.0E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:
Downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall along the shores of Northern Vietnam [2AM OCT 01: 20.3 106.8E @ 110kph].

တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT ၏ ေနာက္ဆံုးရ NRL data မ်ားမွာ ေအာက္ပါအတိုင္း ျဖစ္ပါသည္ -

20W NESAT – 28 Sep 2011 0000Z

Location: 17.6 116.6
Winds: 70 knots (Category 1)
Central Pressure: 970 hPa

JTWC မွ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT အတြက္ ထုတ္ျပန္သည့္ မုန္တိုင္း သတိေပးခ်က္အမွတ္ ၁၉ အားေအာက္တြင္ ေဖၚျပေပးထားပါသည္။ မုန္တိုင္း သတိေပးခ်က္အမွတ္ – ၁၉ အရ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း စသည္ ဗီယက္နန္ကမ္းေျခအား ၁-၁ဝ-၁၁ (စေနေန႕ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ၆ နာရီခြဲ မတိုင္မီ) ဟႏိဳြင္းၿမိဳ႕အနီးမွ ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ဝင္ေရာက္ၿပီး အေနာာက္ဘက္သို႕ ဆက္လက္ေရြ႕လ်ားကာ လာအိုင္ႏိုင္ငံ ေျမာက္ပိုင္း နယ္စပ္အနီးသို႕တိုင္ ေရာက္ရွိႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း၊ ကုန္းတြင္းသို႕ ဝင္ေရာက္ၿပီးသည့္အခါ အားေလ်ာ့သြားႏိုင္မည္ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ျမင္ႏိုင္ပါသည္။

CMISS data  တြက္ခ်က္မႈမွ ရရွိသည့္ပံု အရ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT သည္ လာမည့္ ၃၆ နာရီေနာက္ပိုင္းတြင္ ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းအေရွ႕ဘက္ကမ္းေျခအား Quonghai ၿမိဳ႕ ေျမာက္ဘက္ ၃၅ မိုင္ခန္႕၊ WENGCHAN ၿမိဳ႕ေပၚမွ မွ အဆင့္-၂ (CAT-2) တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း အျဖစ္ျဖင့္ ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္တိုက္ခတ္ၿပီး အေနာက္ဘက္သို႕ ဆက္လက္ ေရြ႕လ်ား၍၊ လာမည့္ ၄၈ နာရီေနာက္ပိုင္းတြင္ တံုကင္ ပင္လယ္ေကြ႕သို႕ ျပန္လည္ဆင္းသက္ကာ လာမည့္ ၇၂ နာရီ အတြင္း ဗီယက္နန္ႏိုင္ငံ ေျမာက္ဘက္ ကမ္းေျခကို Thai Binh ျပည္နယ္ႏွင့္ Nam Dimh ျပည္နယ္ အစပ္၊ Thai Binh City ေတာင္ဘက္ ၁၇ မိုင္ခန္႕ အကြာ ပင္လယ္ကမ္းေျခကို ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္ဝင္ေရာက္မည္ဟု ခန္႕မွန္းထားပါသည္။
ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္မွ ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းအား CAT-2 ျဖင့္ ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္တိုက္ခတ္မည့္ လမ္းေၾကာင္းျပပံု
တံုကင္ပင္လယ္ေကြ႕မွ ဗီယက္နန္ ေျမာက္ပိုင္းကမ္းေျခအား ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္တိုက္မည့္ လမ္းေၾကာင္းျပပံု
မုန္တိုင္းသတင္း   20W, NESAT, PEDRING, ပစိဖိတ္အေနာက္ေျမာက္, ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္

mmweather-admin

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Sep 27, 2011, 11:52:49 PM9/27/11
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ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ၉ နာရီတြင္ ရရွိသည့္ ၿဂိဳလ္တုဓါတ္ပံု၌ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT အရွိန္ေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာသည့္ တိမ္တိုက္ႀကီး ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံေအာက္ပိုင္းတြင္ ဖံုးလႊမ္းေနသည္ကို ေတြ႕ျမင္ရမည္ျဖစ္ပါသည္။


mmweather-admin

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Sep 28, 2011, 12:14:06 AM9/28/11
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ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ၉ နာရီတြင္ ရရွိသည့္ ၿဂိဳလ္တုဓါတ္ပံု၌ တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT အရွိန္ေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာသည့္ တိမ္တိုက္ႀကီး ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံေအာက္ပိုင္းတြင္ ဖံုးလႊမ္းေနသည္ကို ေတြ႕ျမင္ရမည္ျဖစ္ပါသည္။
ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္ေျမာက္ပိုင္းတြင္လည္း ဖိအား 1004hPa ရွိသည့္ ေလဖိအားနည္းရပ္ဝန္းသည္ ကုန္းတစ္ဝက္ေရတစ္ဝက္ တည္ရွိေနေသာေၾကာင့္ စက္တင္ဘာ ၂၈ ရက္ ညေနပိုင္းအထိ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ ေအာက္ပိုင္းတစ္ခုလံုးတြင္ တိမ္ထူထပ္စြာ ဖံုးအုပ္ေနၿပီး မိုးဆက္လက္ ရြာေနနိုင္ေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ရွိရပါသည္။

ကြန္ပ်ဴတာေမာ္ဒယ္မွ ပံုေဖၚတြက္ခ်က္မႈအရ ေအာက္တိုဘာ ၁ ရက္ေန႕ (စေနေန႕)အထိ ေန႕လည္ပိုင္းမွ ညပိုင္းအထိ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံေအာက္ပိုင္းေဒသမ်ားတြင္ မိုးမ်ားနိုင္မည့္ အေျခအေနကို ေတြ႕ျမင္ရပါသည္။

http://blog.mmweather.com/2011/09/28/nesat-landfall-hainan-vietnam/#comment-904

စက္တင္ဘာလ ၂၉ ရက္ ေန႕လည္ ၁၂၃ဝ နာရီမွ ေနာက္ ၆ နာရီအတြက္ မိုးရြာသြန္းမႈ ခန္႕မွန္းေျခ
http://www2.tmd.go.th/program/nwp_pro/UMtoGrADS/images/glob_rainfall/globrainfall07.gif

စက္တင္ဘာလ ၃ဝ ရက္ ေန႕လည္ ၁၂၃ဝ နာရီမွ ေနာက္ ၆ နာရီအတြက္ မိုးရြာသြန္းမႈ ခန္႕မွန္းေျခ
http://www2.tmd.go.th/program/nwp_pro/UMtoGrADS/images/glob_rainfall/globrainfall11.gif

mmweather-admin

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Sep 28, 2011, 12:27:09 AM9/28/11
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မိုးေလ၀သႏွင့္ဇလေဗဒညႊန္ၾကားမႈဦးစီးဌာန - ေနျပည္ေတာ္

ေန႔စဥ္မိုးေလ၀သ သတင္း - (၂၀၁၁ ခုႏွစ္၊ စက္တင္ဘာလ(၂၈)ရက္ေန႔ နံနက္ (၇း၀၀)နာရီအခ်ိန္ ထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္) link

ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္အေျခအေန။ ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္ေျမာက္ပိုင္းတြင္ တိမ္အသင့္အတင့္ ျဖစ္ထြန္းေနပါသည္။ ကပၸလီပင္လယ္ျပင္ ႏွင့္ ဘဂၤလားပင္လယ္ေအာ္ေတာင္ပိုင္းတို႔တြင္ မုတ္သံုေလအားအသင့္အတင့္မွ အားေကာင္းေနျပီး၊ ၊ က်န္ ဘဂၤလား ပင္လယ္ေအာ္တြင္ မုတ္သံုေလ အားနည္းေနပါသည္။

ယေန႔ညေနထိခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္။ တနသၤာရီတိုင္းေဒသႀကီး၊ ကရင္ျပည္နယ္ႏွင့္ မြန္ျပည္နယ္တို႔တြင္ ေနရာအနွံ့အျပား၊ ရန္ကုန္တိုင္းေဒသႀကီး၊ ဧရာ၀တီတိုင္းေဒသႀကီး၊ ကခ်င္ျပည္နယ္ႏွင့္ ကယားျပည္နယ္ တို႔တြင္ ေနရာစိပ္စိပ္၊ စစ္ကိုင္းတိုင္းေဒသႀကီးအထက္ပိုင္း၊ ပဲခူးတိုင္းေဒသႀကီး၊ ရွမ္းျပည္နယ္၊ ခ်င္းျပည္နယ္ႏွင့္ ရခိုင္ျပည္နယ္တို႔တြင္ ေနရာက်ဲက်ဲႏွင့္ က်န္တိုင္းေဒသၾကီးနွင့္ ျပည္နယ္တို႕တြင္ ေနရာကြက္က်ား မိုးထစ္ခ်ဳန္း ရြာၿပီး၊ ကရင္ျပည္နယ္ႏွင့္ မြန္ျပည္နယ္တို႔တြင္ ေနရာကြက္၍ မိုးႀကီးႏိုင္ပါသည္။ ရြာရန္ရာႏႈန္း(၈၀)ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

ျမန္မာ့ပင္လယ္ျပင္။ မုတၱမေကြ႔၊ မြန္-တနသၤာရီကမ္းရိုးတန္းတစ္ေလ်ာက္နွင့္ကမ္းလြန္ပင္လယ္ျပင္တို႕တြင္ တစ္ခါတစ္ရံ မိုးသက္ေလျပင္းမ်ား က်ေရာက္ၿပီး၊လွုိင္းအသင့္အတင့္မွလႈိင္းႀကီးႏိုင္ပါသည္။ မိုးသက္ေလျပင္း က်စဥ္ ေရျပင္/ေျမျပင္ေလသည္ တစ္နာရီလွ်င္္(၃၅)မိုင္ အထိတိုက္ ခတ္ႏိုင္ ပါသည္။က်န္ျမန္မာ့ပင္လယ္ျပင္တြင္ လွိုင္းအသင့္အတင့္ရွိမည္။

ေနာက္(၂)ရက္အတြက္ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္။ ျမန္မာႏို္င္ငံအေရွ႔ပိုင္းေဒသမ်ား တြင္ မိုးပိုလာ နိုင္ပါသည္။

ေနျပည္ေတာ္ႏွင့္အနီးတ၀ိုက္အတြက္ယေန႔ညေနထိခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္။ ေနရာကြက္က်ား မိုးထစ္ခ်ဳန္း ရြာႏိုင္ ပါသည္။ ရြာရန္ရာႏႈန္း (၆၀)ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

ရန္ကုန္ျမိဳ႕ႏွင့္အနီးတ၀ိုက္အတြက္ယေန႔ညေနထိခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္။ မိုးတစ္ႀကိမ္၊ ႏွစ္ႀကိမ္ ထစ္ခ်ဳန္းရြာမည္။ ရြာရန္ရာႏႈန္း(၈၀)ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

မႏၱေလးျမိဳ႕ႏွင့္အနီးတ၀ိုက္အတြက္ယေန႔ညေနထိခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္။ ေနရာကြက္က်ား မိုးထစ္ခ်ဳန္း ရြာႏိုင္ပါ သည္။ ရြာရန္ရာႏႈန္း (၆၀)ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

mmweather-admin

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Sep 28, 2011, 12:56:43 AM9/28/11
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တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT(20W) ဖိလစ္ပိုင္အမည္ PEDRING သည္ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံကို ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္တိုက္ခတ္ၿပီးေနာက္၊ ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္အတြင္းသို႕ ေရာက္ရွိကာ ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းႏွင့္ တံုကင္ပင္လယ္ေကြ႕အား ေက်ာ္ျဖတ္ၿပီး ဗီယက္နန္ေျမာက္ပိုင္း ကမ္းေျခအား ဝင္ေရာက္ တိုက္ခတ္မည္ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း အထက္ post မ်ားတြင္ တင္ျပခဲ့ၿပီး ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

ဤအေျခအေနတြင္ TSR မွ တရုတ္ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းသို႕ အနီေရာင္အဆင့္ သတိေပးခ်က္ႏွင့္ ဗီယက္နန္သို႕ အဝါေရာင္အဆင့္ သတိေပးခ်က္မ်ား စက္တင္ဘာလ ၂၈ ရက္ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ နံနက္ ၆ နာရီခြဲက ေအာက္ေဖၚျပပါ ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားႏွင့္ ၿမိဳ႕ႀကီးမ်ားသို႕ထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါသည္ -

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2011 0:00 GMT

Typhoon NESAT (20W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours

        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

        probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Macau
        probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

mmweather-admin

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Sep 28, 2011, 1:53:54 AM9/28/11
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  • mmweather.ygn

    တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT တိုက္ခတ္မႈေၾကာင့္ ဖိလစ္ပိုင္မွာ အခု အခ်ိန္အထိ ေသဆံုးသူဦးေရ ၁၈ ဦး အထိရွိသြားၿပီျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း၊ မုန္တိုင္းဟာ သိတ္သည္းၿပီး မိုးသည္းထန္စြာရြာသြန္းခဲ့ကာ၊ ေလတိုက္ႏွဳန္းကလဲ ျပင္းထန္ေၾကာင္း ဖိလစ္ပိုင္ႏိုင္ငံ civil defence chief Benito Ramos က AFP ကို ေျပာပါတယ္ … လို႕ အစ ခ်ီတဲ့ AFP သတင္းတစ္ပုဒ္ကို တင္ျပေပးလိုက္ပါတယ္။
    ဒီမုန္တိုင္းဟာ အခုဆိုရင္ ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္ကိုျဖတ္ၿပီးတဲ့ေနာက္ အားျပန္ေကာင္းလာကာ ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းနဲ႕ ဗီယက္နန္ကမ္းေျခေျမာက္ပိုင္းကို ဝင္ေရာက္တိုက္ခတ္ေတာ့မွာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ပထမ မုန္တိုင္း HAITANG ရဲ႕ အရွိန္နဲ႕ စက္တင္ဘာ ၂၈ ရက္ မနက္ပိုင္းက စၿပီး ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံေအာက္ပိုင္းေဒသေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားမွာ မိုးေတြ မည္းၿပီး ရြာလာတာေတြ႕ရၿပီးျဖစ္ပါတယ္။
    တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT ဟာ ဗီယက္နန္ကမ္းေျခကို စက္တင္ဘာ ၂၆ ရက္ေန႕က ဝင္သြားခဲ့တဲ့ မုန္တိုင္း HAITANG ထက္ပိုၿပီး အရြယ္အစားေရာ ျပင္းအားေရာ ႀကီးမားပါတယ္။ ဒါေၾကာင့္ လာမဲ့ စေနေန႕ ေနာက္ပိုင္း NESAT ဗီယက္နန္ကမ္းေျခကို ျဖတ္ေက်ာ္တိုက္ခတ္ၿပီးတဲ့ေနာက္ မုန္တိုင္း အက်န္ေတြက ထိုင္း၊ လာအို၊ ကေမာၻဒီးယားနဲ႕ ျမန္မာျပည္ေျမာက္ပိုင္းေဒသေတြဆီ ဆက္ၿပီး ေရာက္ဦးမွာမို႕ ၾကိဳတင္ၿပီး ျပင္ဆင္စရာရွိတာေတြ ျပင္ဆင္ႏိုင္ေအာင္ တင္ျပေပးလိုက္ျခင္း ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

  • Typhoon Nesat has smashed into the Philippines, killing at least 18 people and bringing the capital Manila to a standstill.

    The Philippines is hit by about 20 major storms annually, many of them deadly, but the government said Nesat was one of the largest the country had faced this year, with its rain and wind path twice as big as average.

    ‘This storm is very intense, the rain is strong and winds are powerful … we are hearing of rivers about to burst their banks, and there are evacuations ongoing in different areas,’ civil defence chief Benito Ramos told AFP on Tuesday.

    ‘We do not have exact figures on how big the damage is … as the storm is still battering us.’

    He later told AFP that at least 18 people were killed as of 7.00pm (2200 AEST), with the toll likely to rise overnight as more reports from rescuers on the ground were expected to filter in.

    He said four of the dead were crushed by a collapsed structure in Manila, while a baby fell into a raging river in an eastern province on Monday.

    More than 100 other people were rescued, including fishermen whose boats capsized in rough seas after ignoring warnings not to set sail, he said.

    Nesat slammed into the main island of Luzon before dawn, bringing maximum sustained winds of up to 140km/h and gusts clocking in at 170km/h.

    It later weakened while slicing through Luzon, but dumped heavy rains throughout the day across the whole island that is home to about 48 million people.

    Parts of the capital, a sprawling megacity of more than 12 million, endured waist-deep flooding, with some of the worst impacts seen around the historic bayside area.

    Huge waves crashed into Manila Bay’s seawall, sending water spraying over into the picturesque Roxas Boulevard and closing one of the city’s main arteries to traffic.

    The ground floor of Manila Hospital, which sits on the boulevard facing the bay, was submerged in knee-deep waters, forcing medical staff to relocate patients to the second floor, radio station DZBB said.

    The five-star Sofitel Philippine Plaza Hotel, located on the bay, was also evacuated, while the US embassy was partly submerged, according to rescue workers.

    Nearly two million households suffered power outages in the capital and surrounding areas, according to the Manila Electric Company, and many people remained without electricity by nightfall.

    Amid the chaos, all schools were suspended and government offices were closed, while dozens of domestic flights in and out of the capital were cancelled.

    The Philippine Stock Exchange suspended trading, and Manila’s main overhead railway system ground to a halt due to power failures.

    A controlled release of water from the Angat Dam in Bulacan province just north of Manila on Tuesday flooded around 25 towns, provincial governor Willy Alvarado said, though there were no reports of casualties.

    ‘We will continue evacuating people into the night,’ he said on state radio.

    The state weather bureau said Nesat was expected to blow into the South China Sea by Wednesday, although bad weather would likely persist for most of the week.

    The agricultural provinces of Isabela and Aurora in the east of the country, among the Philippines’ leading rice producing areas, were the most heavily affected initially, the state weather bureau said.

    Isabela Governor Faustino Dy said about 1,400 people had been relocated to 17 evacuation centres from four coastal towns in his province to avoid powerful storm surges.

    About 110,000 residents had already been evacuated from several flood prone towns in Albay, another eastern province, on Monday.
    CREDIT : http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=666754&vId=2735290&cId=Top%20Stories

mmweather-admin

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Sep 28, 2011, 6:45:45 AM9/28/11
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  • mmweather.ygn

    တိုင္ဖြန္းမုန္တိုင္း NESAT ဟာ သူ႕ရဲ႕ မူလခန္႕မွန္းလမ္းေၾကာင္းေတာင္ဘက္ မိုင္ ၂ဝ ခန္႕ မွ အေနာက္ဘက္စူးစူးသို႕ တစ္နာရီ ၁ဝ မိုင္ႏွဳန္းခန္႕ျဖင့္ ဆက္လက္ေရြ႕လ်ားေနပါတယ္၊ ျမန္မာစံေတာ္ခ်ိန္ ေန႕လည္ ၁၂၃ဝ နာရီ မွာ ေနာက္ဆံုး ရတဲ့ တည္ေနရာကေတာ့ မကာအိုၿမိဳ႕ အေရွ႕ေတာင္ဘက္ယြန္းယြန္း မိုင္ ၃၄ဝ ခန္႕၊ အနီးဆံုး ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းအေရွ႕ဘက္ ကမ္းေျခမွ ၃၄၅ မိုင္ခန္႕ မွာ ဗဟိုျပဳေနပါတယ္။ မုန္တိုင္းရဲ႕ ေနာက္ဆံုးရ NRL data ေတြကို ေဖၚျပေပးထားပါတယ္ -

    20W NESAT – 28 Sep 2011 0600Z
    Location: 17.6 115.7

  • Winds: 70 knots (Category 1)
    Central Pressure: 970 hPa
  • မုန္တိုင္းရဲ႕ ႀကီးမားတဲ့ အရြယ္အစားေၾကာင့္ လာမဲ့ ၂၄ နာရီ ေလျပင္းတိုက္ခတ္ခံရမႈ ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေျချပပံုမွာ ေဟာင္ေကာင္နဲ႕ မကာအို တို႕ကိုေတာင္မွ အဖ်ားခတ္ ထိေတြ႕မဲ့ အေျခအေနျဖစ္ပါတယ္ -

mm weather

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Sep 28, 2011, 6:55:58 AM9/28/11
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အခု NESAT ရဲ႕ rain-band ေတြ(မုန္တိုင္း အဖ်ားပိုင္း တိမ္တိုက္ေတြ) က ေဟာင္ေကာင္-မကာအို နဲ႕ ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္း ကမ္းေျခကို စ ၿပီး ထိေနပါၿပီ
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

2011/9/28 mmweather-admin <mmweat...@gmail.com>

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mmweather-admin

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Sep 28, 2011, 7:07:39 AM9/28/11
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Powerful Typhoon Nesat approaches China

Nesat should make landfall over the Hainan island (southern China) on Thursday, September 29th as a Category-2 typhoon.

After lashing the Philippines, the powerful Typhoon Nesat continues its path into the South China Sea. According to forecasts, the storm should make landfall over the Hainan island (southern China) on Thursday, September 29th as a Category-2 typhoon. Nesat is likely to bring heavy downpours and strong winds to north of Macau, Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, but no significant damages are expected. Road, maritime and air traffic disruptions are likely. Temporary airport closures in Hainan could occur. During the weekend, the storm should continue its path into Vietnam as a tropical storm.

Typhoon Nesat made landfall in the Philippines on September 26th, bringing severe flooding and killing at least 20 people. Tropical storms and hurricanes are common in the region, especially from May to November. A tropical storm has maximum sustained winds between 39 miles per hour (63 km/h) and 73 miles per hour (117 km/h), while a hurricane is a system with sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour (119 km/h). Usually, storms are classified depending on their wind intensity at an indicated time under the Saffir-Simpson scale, which ranks from 1 to 5. The Saffir-Simpson scale also provides examples of the type of damage that could be sustained by facilities depending on the strength of the wind.

People currently in concerned areas should monitor local media in order to get updated information. Follow all recommendations given by local authorities. If you are told to evacuate, do so and follow specific routes. Passengers planning to travel in and out China and Vietnam are advised to check their flight status before heading to the airport. Confirm all your travel arrangements.

မူရင္းသတင္းစာမ်က္ႏွာသို႕ သြားရန္

mmweather-admin

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Sep 28, 2011, 8:05:16 AM9/28/11
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လာမည့္ ၾကာသပေတးေန႕ (၂၉-၉-၁၁)ညေနမွာ ဟိုင္နန္ကၽြန္းေျမာက္ပိုင္းကို ဝင္တိုက္ၿပီးရင္ တံုကင္ပင္လယ္ေကြ႕ကတစ္ဆင့္ ဗီယက္နန္ ေျမာက္ပိုင္းကမ္းေျခကို လာမဲ့ စေနေန႕ - တနဂၤေႏြေန႕ (၃ဝ-၉-၁၁ - ၁-၁ဝ-၁၁) ေန႕တစ္ရက္ရက္မွာ ဝင္ၿပီးရင္ေတာ့ အားေပ်ာ့ပ်က္ပ်ယ္သြားမယ္လို႕ Typhoon2000 ရဲ႕ 5:00 PM PhT Wed September 28 2011 ထုတ္ျပန္ခ်က္မွာ ခန္႕မွန္းထားပါတယ္ ...

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

  • THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying as it approaches the northeastern portion of Hainan Island [2PM SEP 29: 19.2N 112.0E @ 140kph].
  • FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Over the Gulf of Tonkin as it weakens to a Tropical Storm [2PM SEP 30: 20.3N 108.4E @ 110kph].
  • SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...about 46 km SE of Hanoi City [2PM OCT 01: 20.7 106.1E @ 85kph].

NESAT (PEDRING) will continue to move generally west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will make landfall over the northeastern portion of Hainan Island Thursday evening...crossing the island for approximately 10 hours before entering the Gulf of Tonkin on Friday afternoon. NESAT will eventually dissipate as it makes its last & final landfall along Northern Vietnam Saturday through Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NESAT will still re-intensify a little bit just before hitting Hainan Thursday afternoon.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). NESAT remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,100 kilometers (600 nautical miles).
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