Etc argument that geo research raises risks of inaction on emissions is credible and can't be ignored - even if people may argue it's wrong.
If my research project involved the development and testing of nuclear weapons, I'd think it proper to have ethics and social science support when it was assessed, as its very existence is a game changer.
Etc will not shut up if technocrats make decisions behind closed doors, even if these aren't policy decisions. Lock outs are not smart, imo
The perception that reports are policy is also non trivial. We would be naive to assume others won't take that stance.
We should learn from the past. Even today, the huge potential of genetics is held back by the history of hubris and recklessness of the eugenics movement
Let's not make the same mistakes again.
A
Hi All,
A few brief thoughts on geoengineering representation in the news media, after spending a few years writing a master's thesis on this:
-- ETC can't represent civil society, because civil society largely doesn't know about geoengineering. As Tony Leiserowitz said, "the frame has yet to be set."
-- Scientists are instrumental in setting this frame, as they have the greatest share of media attention: natural scientists and engineers make up roughly 70% of assertions in the media about geoengineering. Policy people and economists, most of the rest. (That's in print media, but much web media is sourced from print media.)
-- Hence, ETC is still somewhat fringe, but because of how new media works, they can reach people who are interested in the issue. And their arguments could have deep resonance for the "citizens-on-standby" who don't yet know about geoengineering. Attractive parts of this cosmology may include:
Tea Party: If you mix fall-of-grace stories with a desire for freedom (in the form of wildness, unregulated "nature") and anger toward elites, you have a cosmology that looks kind of like.... the Tea Party. That's what I'd be worried about. Fortunately traditional ideas of what is red/blue have kept this issue from going in that direction.
But I don't think you get anywhere by approaching someone else's argument; rather, speak to their narrative. All their narrative concerns are reasonable (to me) and could have traction, especially the latter-- I still don't think we've seen the popular anti-elite fallout from the 2008 financial mess (though we begin to in Europe, MENA). What does that have to do with geoengineering research and governance? A lot, potentially.
Prediction: Going forward, I'd expect to see a humanitarian frame, which you don't see much at present: geoengineering as a humanitarian intervention done forward on behalf of the countries who are getting hit by climate change. ETC manages to speak for the Global South at present, but it's still unclear how both citizens and leaders of developing countries feel about this prospect. More research is needed here, as the G-77 is an entitity that would break down here: Pakistan and Brazil may have different ideas than Boliva on this point. This could really transform the discussion in the Western press.
Opportunity analysis: it would be a great time for a science diplomacy initiative to shine-- scientists in EU/US really working with scientists in other countries on research. For environmentalists, it's a great time to fully elaborate a vision of carbon-cycle projects like biochar that could be done locally, but on a wide scale, and ramp up funding for this + other projects that would reform the global food system & fuel system in the process. If we believed humans were actually capable of transforming our environment for the better, environmentalists might get somewhere.
Cheers,
Holly
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This discussion seems to ignore the purpose of IPCC. The job of IPCC is
to assess peer-reviewed literature on the subject of climate change and
report the assessment to the governments of the world to that they can
make informed policy choices. This assessment will include
geoengineering in all three working group reports. I attach a brochure
on IPCC so you can see the titles of the different chapters of each report.
The purpose of IPCC is NOT to organize research, to conduct research, or
to recommend policies. The purpose of the Experts' Meeting on
Geoengineering to be held in Lima next week, which I will attend, is to
bring IPCC authors from all three working groups together to inform each
other of the work they have done so far, so that each working group
report will be better informed by all the current work in
geoengineering, and so that the reports will not be contradictory or
ignorant of the other reports. The meeting will forge collaborations so
that authors from different working groups will be able to know about
each other and stay in touch over the next 2-3 years as the reports are
finalized.
Alan
Alan Robock, Professor II (Distinguished Professor)
Editor, Reviews of Geophysics
Director, Meteorology Undergraduate Program
Associate Director, Center for Environmental Prediction
Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-732-932-9800 x6222
Rutgers University Fax: +1-732-932-8644
14 College Farm Road E-mail: rob...@envsci.rutgers.edu
New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 USA http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock
Alan Alan Robock, Professor II (Distinguished Professor) Editor, Reviews of Geophysics Director, Meteorology Undergraduate Program Associate Director, Center for Environmental Prediction Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-732-932-9800 x6222 Rutgers University Fax: +1-732-932-8644 14 College Farm Road E-mail: rob...@envsci.rutgers.edu New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 USA http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock
Will the Lima meeting be attended by anyone with expertise in methane feedback?
They key scientific justification for geoengineering development in the short to medium term is to prevent or react to tipping points, ie methane feedbacks, so it helps to have expertise on hand.
If we're at the tipping point now, it would be handy to know this when considering the matter of development and deployment.
Shakhova is an obvious choice for a jolly to Peru.
A
It doesn't need a lot of money to do do this.
Some time ago I suggested a formal membership organisation, which would be the obvious focus for media attention
At the time ken argued against the idea, and it seemed to die at that point.
Is there now any support for establishing a "geoengineering studies society "
A
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Perhaps Prof. Shepperd would be willing to make the geoengineering
ctte permanent?
A
Greetings,
Thanks for reading, Ron. I'll try to respond to as many of your points as I can.
On how I would rephrase anything in both these papers if I was ONLY talking about CDR: Let me first say that I used to think it was unhelpful to use the signifier "geoengineering" for such vastly different approaches as SRM & CDR. It seemed a shopping-cart approach, too dependent on a rational-choice model of human behavior / consumption. However, lately I've been thinking that there's a great utility in this catch-all signifier "geoengineering": being able to compare these approaches on a conceptually equal playing field can be empowering.
In the media content analysis, I simply searched for "geoengineering" or "climate engineering", and if it sounded like I was using the term interchangeably with SRM, that probably reflects the hundreds of media articles I read which often did so. It would be interesting to repeat the media content analysis with only terms that referred to CDR to see how the narrative frames are different. However, many of the stories on geoengineering take the shopping-cart approach (i.e. Ten Crazy Schemes to Save the World), so I don't know if it would have differed very much. And as I wrote, climate stability is almost always framed as averting the negative, not about establishing something positive— this is possibly less true for CDR, but not dramatically so. In short, that paper might not have been too different.
However, for the public participation & narrative communication paper, I would have written a very different paper if it was only about CDR. Part of this is because some CDR options, like biochar & afforestation, offer direct participation opportunities, not just in decision-making but in actualization. Also, CDR would deal with existing institutions differently (e.g. the World Bank already looking into biochar— lots of potential links with multilateral humanitarian and agricultural instituions who deal with land use, etc.) Having more clearly relevant existing institutions makes it a different conversation. And for the section on changing the narratives on geoengineering: I think this would be easier if talking only about CDR. For one, the phrase of "carbon dioxide removal" implies taking something away; I think people are more at ease with that idea. Works with the make-a-mess, clean-it-up thinking we learned as kids, whereas "solar radiation management" is like management, tiresome responsibility. And the imagery is more palatable: for an article on biochar, you can head with an image of two hands holding dark earth with a seed sprouting. Even for ocean fertilization, you can have a diagram with some little fishes in it. For SRM, you've got The Earth from Space or the ubiquitous rendering of the sea-spray vessel. These might sound like stupid points, but they aren't incidental differences; they are crucial.
On the NERC report and "expert" advice: though I criticize it somewhat in my paper, I believe the NERC endeavor was a well-intentioned attempt at a public dialogue. I do think you need different parties doing the informing and facilitating the dialogue, though. I like your idea about having three different sets of experts. I would posit that they should be experts from across disciplines, too. Like in the example you mentioned: the large land areas involved in biochar are not an essential problem, but a problem in implementation. The fears that biochar production would be taking place on large plantations in the global South to fix the problems the North created have some justification, I think, based mostly on the current (evolving) land-use trends we see today with large scale land-leases, expanding palm oil plantations displacing farmers, etc. It's not totally inconceivable that similar trends could happen if biochar production was ramped up, so there will have to be some norms, institutions, and regulatory scheme set up to deal with these kinds of issues. So, back to the topic of public consultation: are you going to have experts that present all these angles to the public? Educational institutions should be carrying weight here.
On assessment of technologies: I agree with you that we need to find a better way to assess possible climate-important technologies, and I think that it should take into account not just "economic" costs, but social and ecological opportunities. If biochar can help us deal with the food and fuel crises, it should score some points— and the inability of other strategies to do that should be marked down as an opportunity lost. Strategies shouldn't be assessed on their ability to modify the temperature, as the temperature isn't really our problem: I see our root problems as poor land use, socio-economic systems that depend on fossil-fuel combustion, and uneven development. So strategies should be assessed on their ability to contribute to solving these, and downgraded if they can't. Difficult, politcally and methodologically, but if we are actually serious about a planet that would support human well-being, we should consider some type of approach like this. (I haven't entirely thought through the mechanism, obviously, but hopefully the rudimentary idea comes through.) On the plus side, incorporating opportunities into assessement might mobilize support from a lot of the people who are against geoengineering (back to the ETC topic): one of their main concerns is that geoengineering is a way of maintaining the status quo.
Take care,
Holly
p.s. the full thesis is pretty much these two papers; nothing radically different is added. They will probably be published in an anthology and a journal, but not for some months.
Hi Michael,
Thanks for all your useful comments; there is a lot I want to address about them.
Yes, it's true that there is some social engineering involved... but I think the Anthropocene challenges the Cartesian nature / society divide for many people. We have changed our atmospheric composition due to patterns that are very much social and cultural: it's not just burning of hydrocarbons or cutting of biomass that created 394 ppm. It's love for the open road, jet-set glamour, dietary patterns, corrupt regimes that allow illegal logging, aspirations of the Chinese middle class, whatever. All of these sociocultural factors have helped lead us to this juncture.
More explicitly on-point to this thread: people who vociferously oppose geoengineering believe geoengineering to be a social project with nefarious social aims, and they don't see the natural / social divide in the way a scientist might. They are problematizing global warming differently. And it can be difficult to have a conversation between two parties who have a different conceptualization of exactly what problem they're trying to address. So any "PR" strategy would do well to speak to the "problematization problem", I think.
This is of course true; I mention uneven development because this is what prevents us from making process with the UNFCCC process. To briefly frame the situation: many developing countries see the developed world as having developed with use of their resources, at their expense under colonialism, and with the benefit of fossil fuels. They think they are entitled to a "fair" allowance of catch-up emissions and that developed countries should pay for what they've already emitted. Developed countries don't want to pay up (especially since many developing countries have corrupt regimes) and they are heavily invested in existing fossil fuel structures. This development dilemma, because it is what keeps us from just going and cutting emissions, is the dilemma that causes the need for geoengineering.
So let's entertain a thought-experiment: what if it was possible that geoengineering could actually contribute to solving this dilemma?
This is perhaps easier to see with strategies like afforestation techniques, biochar, etc.: it's possible to introduce an implementation design that could be combined with development mechanisms so that developing countries, or even communities, could be financially rewarded for undertaking them and benefit from them, and have their land use and energy situations improved. I mean, this is already a part of the UNFCCC process. It's not just CDR techniques that could potentially address the social development dilemma, but also reflective crop varieties and grasslands (especially if combined with ecological restoration of degraded lands). Or see Michael's recent post on diatoms:
"This GE approach offers at least two non global warming mitigation related benefits to society. First would be the overall water quality improvement in the operational area due to the increase in saturated O2 levels provided by the seeded diatom blooms. Second would be that fisheries may improve due to the increase in the marine food production rates at the micro level."
Fishery improvement has all kinds of social benefits. Your phrase "general regional ecological enhancement" is really key: regional ecological enhancements are often social enhancements, especially when applied with the intention to be so.
Clearly, a lot of potential social solutions aren't inherent in the technologies, but in their implementation. But because the research process is entangled with the implementation of the technologies, I do think scientists can keep in mind how their research would be scaled-up or deployed, and play a role in it. (For example, the Internet had many influences and funders in its nascency-- DARPA, CERN, NSF, etc.-- but its structure, and even its social role, might be different if Tim Berners-Lee had patented hypertext. Not a perfect example, but the evolution of every tech, from pharma to farming, has some social impact and story.) I know I haven't fleshed out any of these ideas at much, but I am writing a longer paper on this topic.
Final note on PR: Michael, you proposed a website some posts back about a PR organization. My humble two cents, if you or others go through with this, would be to abandon the term PR-- it's too ideologically loaded already-- and rather discuss "outreach." And use it for genuine outreach, networking internationally with young & old scientists and civil society out there. Great way to touch base with the intergenerational issue. I'm so glad you mentioned graphics, too: images, design, and feel are so important. Best to go beyond the sci-fi diagrams and the ubiquitous rendering of the ocean spray ship; include images with people and plants and water in them, of scientists actively discussing and working out ideas and talking to the publics. May seem obvious, but in the hundreds of articles I analyzed on geoengineering, none had images like this. Also, crowdsourcing from all the inventors, climate geeks, environmentalists, and people who have too much free time on the net is key to making it work. I would work with educators, esp. on funding sources, as this could easily fit in with science education, and everybody loves education.
Kind regards,
Holly
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"This GE approach offers at least two non global warming mitigation related benefits to society. First would be the overall water quality improvement in the operational area due to the increase in saturated O2 levels provided by the seeded diatom blooms. Second would be that fisheries may improve due to the increase in the marine food production rates at the micro level." (My statement)
" Fishery improvement has all kinds of social benefits. Your phrase "general regional ecological enhancement" is really key: regional ecological enhancements are often social enhancements, especially when applied with the intention to be so." (Holly's statement)