On 02/12/2012 11:53 AM, TomS wrote:
> "On Sun, 12 Feb 2012 09:20:29 -0700, in article<jh8oj8$v5r$
1...@dont-email.me>,
> Kalkidas stated..."
>>
>> On 2/12/2012 8:20 AM, *Hemidactylus* wrote:
>>>
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kenneth-r-miller/darwin-day-evolution_b_1269191.html
>>
>>
>> "According to a 2009 Gallup poll taken on the 200th anniversary of
>> Charles Darwin's birth, fewer than 40% of Americans are willing to say
>> that they "believe in evolution."
>>
>> Notice the nuance: "...*willing to say* that they believe in evolution."
>>
>> But the poll didn't ask people if they were "*willing to say*" that they
>> believed in evolution, it asked if they believed in evolution,
>> disbelieved in it, or had no opinion *either way*.
>>
>> So what, is Miller implying that the ones who answered "no opinion" were
>> somehow coerced into silence by anti-evolutionists whom they were "not
>> willing" to contradict?
> [...snip...]
>
> I noticed that, too. I took it to be Miller's way of being charitable
> to the poor wording of the poll. It has been pointed out enough times
> that a lot of people don't "believe in" evolution, but accept the
> reality of evolution based on the evidence. People may "believe in"
> bimetallism, but they don't "believe in" the periodic table.
Or (me trying to get into Miller's head for using an innocuous word like
willing):
http://tigger.uic.edu/~lwbenn/jacswcourses/socw360/week14.htm
"using self report is often biased by social desirability"
Or more closely linked to the point:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1770/ask-the-expert-pew-research-center
[quote]Q. How many people would say that they believed in God if they
were able to answer with complete anonymity? That is, if they could take
a ballot, check off "yes" or "no" in complete privacy and drop it in a
box. The point of my question is that most people will say they believe
in God in the presence of others when they think that it is the
politically correct answer and, more importantly, that they will be
judged on their answer. Their declaration of belief often has little to
do with their personal convictions and beliefs. Would such a poll put
the lie to the broadly held theory that approximately 80% of Americans
believe in God?
Your question is about what survey researchers call a "social
desirability effect" -- the tendency of respondents in a survey to give
the answer that they think they "should" give or that will cast
themselves in the most favorable light. This is a real issue, one that
we often consider in designing our surveys. Like all reputable polling
organizations, the Pew Research Center safeguards the identity of the
people who take our surveys. Still, you are right that some respondents
may wonder whether their answers are completely confidential, or they
may want to make a favorable impression on the interviewer asking the
questions.
You are also right to think that people might answer certain kinds of
questions more honestly if they could do something akin to dropping a
secret ballot into a box. Research suggests that social desirability
effects are more pronounced in interviewer-administered surveys (such as
the telephone surveys we conduct at Pew) than in self-administered
surveys in which people can fill out a questionnaire (either on paper or
electronically) in complete privacy. For example, research conducted by
the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) shows that
among Catholics, estimates of church attendance (thought to be a
socially desirable behavior) are higher in telephone surveys than in
online surveys.
Several Pew Research Center surveys have included questions about belief
in God, asking respondents "Do you believe in God or a universal
spirit?" In our Religious Landscape Survey, a 2007 telephone survey with
more than 35,000 respondents, 92% answered this question affirmatively.
We have never asked this question on a self-administered survey of the
U.S. population, so we can't say exactly how results for this question
might have been different if respondents had complete privacy and no
interaction with an interviewer. However, in 2008, the Associated Press
and Yahoo! News sponsored a series of online surveys conducted by
Knowledge Networks among a nationally representative panel of Americans.
The June 2008 wave of their poll included the same question about belief
in God, and came up with very similar results (93% said yes, they
believe in God or a universal spirit).
One other point worth noting is that in our Religious Landscape Survey,
after asking respondents whether or not they believe in God or a
universal spirit, we followed up and asked those who said "yes" an
additional question: "How certain are you about this belief? Are you
absolutely certain, fairly certain, not too certain, or not at all
certain?" Presumably, even if some respondents expressed belief in God
because that's the socially desirable thing to do, there should be more
leeway for people to express doubts after affirming their status as
believers. But in fact, most people express little doubt about God's
existence, with more than 70% of the public saying they believe in God
with absolute certainty.
The bottom line is that yes, you may be right, there could be some
social desirability attached to expressing belief in God. But, even so,
the evidence is strong that a very large majority of the U.S. public
believes in God.
Alan Cooperman, Associate Director, Research and Gregory A. Smith,
Senior Researcher, Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life[/quote]
This at least makes "willing to say" more understandable.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114544/darwin-birthday-believe-evolution.aspx
[quote]Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,018 national adults,
aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 6-7, 2009, as part of Gallup Poll
Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national
adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of
sampling error is ą3 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for
respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for
respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of public opinion polls.[/quote]
These results came from a telephone survey. What would people be willing
to say for a telephone survey versus something more anonymous?