perry lin/money mgmt
LSM...@worldnet.att.net
hey perry, LSMOOTH here. this post is not really pertaining to
your 0-2 game of the year plays you had tonight, its pertaining
to your money management strategy. you claim you play 3% of your
bankroll on most plays, but tonight on your 2 game of the years,
you said you were putting 10% of your bankroll on each play. now
the average person may say this is only a little more than 3 times
your normal wager, but its technically much more. using your
numbers, you just lost 20% or one fifth of your entire gambling
money bankroll in a matter of a few hours. so if your bankroll
was say $10,000 then you just lost $2,200 tonight, meaning you
only have a bankroll left of $7,800 - now if your average wager
is 3% of your bankroll, your average wager now becomes $234.
so now you have to win your next 10 games in a row just to recoup
what you lost in only 2 wagers. everyone here in this newsgroup
knows im a nitpicker when it comes to money management, as i
always have stressed in the past that no one wager should ever
be more than 1.75 of your average wager. if you wager $500 a
game on average, then your best bet, whether its a game of the
year or not, should not exceed $850 or so. it should never even
hit double your average wager because if youre in it for the
long haul, and youre good enough, youll show a profit, whether
or not you catch a small losing streak, or if you lose your
game of the year plays or "locks". my point is that bad money
management is more of a cause for people becoming losing
gamblers than anything else (besides just being a bad
handicapper). anyway guy, good luck to you, and this is not
an email to be taken negatively, as its just me speaking on
money management and why i think its crucial to anyone being
a successful gambler. one last thing, who the hell are any
of us here in this newsgroup, or anyone at all to think we are
so damn good that we can really be sure which individual game
is the one to load up 5 and 10 times our normal wager?? anyone
doing this is crazy. its hard enough to try and hit at a
60% or more clip, let alone try to know where to "load up".
ill settle for being a winner in the long run, season after
season, year after year, although some years are more profitable
than others. again, good luck - LSMOOTH
Perry Lin
LSMOOTH:
You make a real good point but you have to look at the long haul. In a
year, I will have about 20 GOY type plays. These plays I assume will hit
80% of the time. Although, I lost my two plays yesterday, that only
brings my big play record from the start of preseason football to 11-3.
Wouldn't you say that's much better than BIG AL's? Anyway, if I
consistently play my top plays at the same percentage, I should do ok in
the long haul.
Now, my theory on the percentage plays. 3% plays hit at a regularity of
56-58%. Obviously, they are not the strongest plays out there. However,
if I hit 58%, my edge is about 5.3% calculating vig into it. I roughly
divide that by half to get my average bet size. Now, my 5% plays hit at
60-63%. At 60%, my edge is 7.6%. I bet 5% on these plays. Now, if you
compare this to my GOY's which hit 75-80%, then my edge is 25%. I have no
problem betting 10% on a big game, because, in the long run, my big game
winnings will more than cover my big game losses.
My philosophy in gambling is to use the smaller plays to build bankroll
and to counteract bad streaks. My big game is where the cash is made.
After I win a big game, I cash the winnings out. If I lose, I build
bankroll again until I reach that point. Hopefully, the next big will
win. I will win 4 times as many big games as I lose. I think thats a
good profit. Thanks for writing LSMOOTH. Take care.
Perry Lin
TjF
If in fact you only have 20 GOY type plays in a year....and you had two
last night...and you lost them both.....and you hit 80% as you say....
you should be 16-2 for the next 18 "major" plays.
We'll see.
If I was a gambling man - I'd take that bet in a heartbeat.
TjF
John Saffron
On Thu, 30 Jan 1997 01:17:48 -0500, LSM...@worldnet.att.net wrote:
uccessful gambler. one last thing, who the hell are any
>of us here in this newsgroup, or anyone at all to think we are
>so damn good that we can really be sure which individual game
>is the one to load up 5 and 10 times our normal wager?? anyone
>doing this is crazy. its hard enough to try and hit at a
>60% or more clip, let alone try to know where to "load up".
>ill settle for being a winner in the long run, season after
>season, year after year, although some years are more profitable
>than others. again, good luck - LSMOOTH
I agree with you to a point on the amount of the bet...bumping up 5 or
10 time your normal on game is a guess mostly, 50/50 chance of hitting
it right...do you feel lucky today? Straight players do best with same
amount wagered per game...pick more W's than L's an head to the
bank....
As you know I tend to play the teasers and parlays almost
exclusivly...By doing that, I tend to "wheel" a team or 3 when I do
this...when I'm on a streak like now, you wouldn't believe the
results! I usually use the top 2 or 3 of my picks, and play approx.
15-20 parlays a night.... Wed. saw 13-2 teamers come in, 2-3 teamers
cash, and 1-5 team parlay hit....Detroit was in 10!!! of those
combos.... When I say I load it up on a couple, thats what I do...
some people say I crazy but that's the way I play... Lost a couple on
the straights with the total, and Houston, NC Wilm... Tuesday saw 9-2
teamers cash, 1-3 teamer, 1-5 teamer with a Push on VA, drop to a 4
teamer and cash, 2-2 teamers lose... Monday was 6-0 on the BB's and
they all won! Again, my top pick Tuesday was Utah and I had em 8
ways... That #1 pick has covered 15 of 18 times.... If I start a
losing streak, like last week, I just drop the number of round robins
I play... CRAZY HUH? Pays da bills though!!
But, I usually play the same amount each bet....I don't bump up any 2
or 3 teamer 5-10 time my norm... Make any sense... maybe not...it's
getting late...
Cya!
Patrick Torre
Hello:
I'm new to the Newsgroup, actually computers in general, but I've been
wagering on sports for about 10 years now. LSMOOTH's posting concerning
money management is exactly right on the money.. I've got a good
bonehead story for all you out there to prove this point..
I live in Conn., my roomate and I are avid sports gamblers (football
and college hoops). We are also diehard Uconn fans and we go to all the
games we can, and yes we are familiar with the saying, "Never bet with
your heart, bet with your wallet." So here's the story........
Jan 19th. our belovid Huskies were hosting #1 Kansas. Ricky Moor and
Kirk King were just suspended for the plane ticket fiasco which left the
Huskies very thin... Saturday we were discussing what the line would be
considering all the circumstances...We figured 10 to 12, only because
Vegas would still give Uconn respect for playing at home. There was no
way Uconn could match up with Kansas at any position. I felt we would
be lucky to get a line on the game at all. The same night we were out
in Hartford at a bar and our boy Jake Voskul was there drinking (yes he
is under 21)... We woke up the next day, hungover as hell, got up and
ran to the paper.. It had a line of Kansas - 11... We looked at each
other drueling and said," If Jake feels anything like we do Uconn will
loose by 50." So we're at Chucks outside of the stadium, call our first
3 books and couldn't get a line on the game.. We both stood there
confirming that the lack of a line proved we had a winner..... Luckly
our 4th book had a line.. Kansas -12.. So we took Kansas.. I bet 200
(150 ususal base) and my roomate bet 200 also (50 usual base)... We then
proceeded to sit down and eat lunch complementing ourselves on the
winner we were about to watch... My roomate got up saying he was going
to take a leak... Grabbed the phone and dropped another 300 on the
Jayhawks.... Didn't mention anything to me until the Huskies were up
like 24 to 7... To rap this up.. My roomate was in shock for like 5
days.. I was fine won 2 bets I had in the afternoon.... Jan. 26th. The
Huskies played Providence.. I said jokingly to my roomate, "Ready to get
back your nickel?" He growled at me.. I picked up the phone and put 200
on Providence... Winner winner chicken dinner... Enough said !!!