LSMOOTH:
You make a real good point but you have to look at the long haul. In a
year, I will have about 20 GOY type plays. These plays I assume will hit
80% of the time. Although, I lost my two plays yesterday, that only
brings my big play record from the start of preseason football to 11-3.
Wouldn't you say that's much better than BIG AL's? Anyway, if I
consistently play my top plays at the same percentage, I should do ok in
the long haul.
Now, my theory on the percentage plays. 3% plays hit at a regularity of
56-58%. Obviously, they are not the strongest plays out there. However,
if I hit 58%, my edge is about 5.3% calculating vig into it. I roughly
divide that by half to get my average bet size. Now, my 5% plays hit at
60-63%. At 60%, my edge is 7.6%. I bet 5% on these plays. Now, if you
compare this to my GOY's which hit 75-80%, then my edge is 25%. I have no
problem betting 10% on a big game, because, in the long run, my big game
winnings will more than cover my big game losses.
My philosophy in gambling is to use the smaller plays to build bankroll
and to counteract bad streaks. My big game is where the cash is made.
After I win a big game, I cash the winnings out. If I lose, I build
bankroll again until I reach that point. Hopefully, the next big will
win. I will win 4 times as many big games as I lose. I think thats a
good profit. Thanks for writing LSMOOTH. Take care.
Perry Lin
If in fact you only have 20 GOY type plays in a year....and you had two
last night...and you lost them both.....and you hit 80% as you say....
you should be 16-2 for the next 18 "major" plays.
We'll see.
If I was a gambling man - I'd take that bet in a heartbeat.
TjF
uccessful gambler. one last thing, who the hell are any
>of us here in this newsgroup, or anyone at all to think we are
>so damn good that we can really be sure which individual game
>is the one to load up 5 and 10 times our normal wager?? anyone
>doing this is crazy. its hard enough to try and hit at a
>60% or more clip, let alone try to know where to "load up".
>ill settle for being a winner in the long run, season after
>season, year after year, although some years are more profitable
>than others. again, good luck - LSMOOTH
I agree with you to a point on the amount of the bet...bumping up 5 or
10 time your normal on game is a guess mostly, 50/50 chance of hitting
it right...do you feel lucky today? Straight players do best with same
amount wagered per game...pick more W's than L's an head to the
bank....
As you know I tend to play the teasers and parlays almost
exclusivly...By doing that, I tend to "wheel" a team or 3 when I do
this...when I'm on a streak like now, you wouldn't believe the
results! I usually use the top 2 or 3 of my picks, and play approx.
15-20 parlays a night.... Wed. saw 13-2 teamers come in, 2-3 teamers
cash, and 1-5 team parlay hit....Detroit was in 10!!! of those
combos.... When I say I load it up on a couple, thats what I do...
some people say I crazy but that's the way I play... Lost a couple on
the straights with the total, and Houston, NC Wilm... Tuesday saw 9-2
teamers cash, 1-3 teamer, 1-5 teamer with a Push on VA, drop to a 4
teamer and cash, 2-2 teamers lose... Monday was 6-0 on the BB's and
they all won! Again, my top pick Tuesday was Utah and I had em 8
ways... That #1 pick has covered 15 of 18 times.... If I start a
losing streak, like last week, I just drop the number of round robins
I play... CRAZY HUH? Pays da bills though!!
But, I usually play the same amount each bet....I don't bump up any 2
or 3 teamer 5-10 time my norm... Make any sense... maybe not...it's
getting late...
Cya!