From: "Steve Brecher" <s...@my.signature.at.end>
Date: Sun, 18 May 2003 14:37:46 -0700
Local: Sun, May 18 2003 5:37 pm
Subject: PokerStars tournament all-in pot equities v. pots won
Using emailed hand histories, I tabulated the results of 1675 pots in
PokerStars tournaments in which betting ended prior to the river because
players in the pot were all-in, and in which none of the all-in players was
drawing dead. The great majority of the tournaments were multi-table; a few
were two-table, and fewer still single-table. There were a total of 3420
all-in hands (usually two per pot, but in a few instances three or even
For each all-in, I collected the player's equity in the pot at the time of
990 pots with board cards: Tc 9d 7s
--the "expected return, % of pot" result shows the pot equity of each hand.
The chi square statistic does not indicate significant variance of actual
Looking at the "big" favorites/underdogs, and expressing the favorite's
Odds at least # of hands Avg equity Avg pot won
In sum, I see no evidence that "bad beats" are more frequent than expected.
(I am grateful to Paul Pudaite for analytical guidance, but any errors are
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