Q3FY12 Estimate for PI Industries Ltd.

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mahesh i. shah

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Jan 3, 2012, 2:15:09 AM1/3/12
to globalsp...@googlegroups.com

Link to pdf of my Q3FY12 as well as 9'Month'FY12 estimate for PI Industries Ltd.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/76999128/

 

Rgds.




Q3FY12Estimate.pdf

mahesh

unread,
Feb 12, 2012, 11:14:15 PM2/12/12
to "GLOBAL SPECULATORS"
Q3FY12 Results for PI Industries Announced -- Major Details :



Revenue - 190.57 cr. ( v/s our estimate of Rs. 223-245 cr.)

EBITDA - 30.7 cr. (v/s our estimate of Rs. 43-48 cr.)

PAT - Rs. 11.43 cr. (v/s our estimate of Rs. 23-26 cr.)

EPS - Rs. 4.55 (v/s our estimate of Rs. 9.2-10.4)



Prima-facie Analysis of Q3FY12 Results :

Q3FY12 Results of PI Industries are way below our conservative
estimates and the main culprit seems to have been Agri-Input segment.
As envisaged post Rallis Analyst Meet Takeaways on 25th Jan. 2012,
Agri-Input segment seems to have suffered heavily although the exact
details wrt. its revenue and profitability are still awaited from the
Press Release and Concall commentry. The more disappointing part of
the results is the continued pressure on margins which is contrary to
management's own expectations as detailed by them in Q2FY12 concall
commentry. EBITDA margins for the qrtr. at just 16.10 % while
considering the fact that CSM segment enjoys high margins of 21 % +
doesn't augur too well for Agri-input segment visibility.

Since last many years, current qrtr. seems to be the first qrtr.
wherein Pi Ind. has failed to outperform its major peer Rallis and we
hope this is the one-off and company can get back on track in coming
qrtrs.

Detailed Press Release is awaited at the time of writing this and
management commentry in the concall will be crucial.

Will update of the details soon.

Rgds.


On Jan 3, 12:15 pm, "mahesh i. shah" <equityanalystinves...@gmail.com>
wrote:
>  Q3FY12Estimate.pdf
> 314KViewDownload

mahesh

unread,
Feb 13, 2012, 11:49:31 PM2/13/12
to "GLOBAL SPECULATORS"
Press Release rgdg. Q3FY12 Results issued :

PI’s 9M FY2012 EBITDA grows strongly at 40%

EBITDA grows strongly at 40%
Agri-Input shows solid growth of 30% YoY

Custom Synthesis scales-up along expected lines, revenues up 65% YoY

New Delhi, February 12, 2012: PI Industries Limited (PI), a leading
Indian Agri-Input and Custom

Synthesis company today announced its financial results for the third
quarter ended December 31,

2011.

PI Industries Limited (PI), a leading Indian Agri-Input and Custom
Synthesis company today announced its financial results for the third
quarter ended December 31,

2011.

Financial Highlights for the nine-months ended 31st December, 2011

(Compared to 9M FY11; which includes results of Polymer Compounding
business)

st December, 2011
(Compared to 9M FY11; which includes results of Polymer Compounding
business)

Net Revenue

Net Revenue stood at Rs. 6418.2 million, up 26.8% (~41% YoY without
Polymer Compounding

revenue); Agri-Input saw growth of 30% whereas Custom Synthesis grew
by 65%. Growth in the

Agri-Input business is ahead of the sector growth rate while the
Custom Synthesis business

continues to deliver strong revenue momentum.

EBITDA

EBITDA was at Rs. 1,106.4 million, up 40%. Margins saw 160 bps
expansion to 17.2% given the

robust all-round performance.

Pre-tax Earnings

Profit Before Tax at Rs. 1,080.5 million with an increase of 81.3% and
considering the effect of:

 Pre-tax gain of ~Rs. 303 million on sale of the Company’s Polymer
business to Rhodia SA in the

beginning of current fiscal.

Pre-tax gain of ~Rs. 303 million on sale of the Company’s Polymer
business to Rhodia SA in the
beginning of current fiscal.

 Exchange Fluctuation Loss of Rs. 64.7 million as compared to
Exchange Fluctuation Gain of Rs.

47 million in the same period last year.

Exchange Fluctuation Loss of Rs. 64.7 million as compared to Exchange
Fluctuation Gain of Rs.
47 million in the same period last year.

Post-tax Earnings

The Net Profit including exceptional gains was at Rs. 787.6 million,
up 80.1%. The Basic EPS

increased to Rs. 31.65 per share against Rs. 19.6 per share last year.



Financial Highlights for the quarter ended 31st December, 2011

(Compared to Q3 FY11; which includes results of Polymer Compounding
business)

st December, 2011
(Compared to Q3 FY11; which includes results of Polymer Compounding
business)

Net Revenue

Net Revenue was stable at Rs. 1,902.1 million (~11% growth YoY without
Polymer Compounding

revenue); Agri-Inputs showed 16% increase in Revenues to Rs. 1,022
million despite the inclement

conditions in the Rabi season where deficiency in the N-E monsoon
affected the regular cropping

pattern. The contribution from Custom Synthesis was Rs. 880 million;
5% increase on higher base of

last year.

EBITDA

EBITDA was at Rs. 307.1 million and showed 18.3% growth with a margin
improvement of 250 bps

to 16.2%.

Pre-tax Earnings

Profit Before Tax at Rs. 160 million considers the effect of:

 Exchange Fluctuation Loss of Rs. 64.6 million, which includes
Unrealized Foreign Exchange

fluctuation loss of Rs. 58.5 million (net basis) arising out of the
restatement of foreign currency

exposure on the reporting date. Against this, there was a Exchange
Fluctuation Gain of Rs. 39

million in the same period last year.

Exchange Fluctuation Loss of Rs. 64.6 million, which includes
Unrealized Foreign Exchange
fluctuation loss of Rs. 58.5 million (net basis) arising out of the
restatement of foreign currency

exposure on the reporting date. Against this, there was a Exchange
Fluctuation Gain of Rs. 39

million in the same period last year.

Post-tax Earnings

The Net Profit was at Rs. 114.4 million with a Basic EPS of Rs. 4.60
per share.

Commenting on the performance Mr. Mayank Singhal, Managing Director &
CEO, PI Industries

Ltd., said;

“We have reported a revenue growth of ~11% during the quarter after
excluding the contribution of

the Polymer Compounding business which we divested in the beginning of
the year. Despite the

adverse impact of the erratic N-E monsoon on the domestic business, we
have continued with a

good pace of growth. We are constantly identifying products, which can
be placed in the niche

areas to fuel the future growth. We have a few exciting product
launches ahead of us.

In Custom Synthesis we have shown strong growth in revenues on account
of ramp up of existing

products. We are also commercializing new products in the next few
quarters which will further

enhance our growth trajectory.”

We have reported a revenue growth of ~11% during the quarter after
excluding the contribution of
the Polymer Compounding business which we divested in the beginning of
the year. Despite the

adverse impact of the erratic N-E monsoon on the domestic business, we
have continued with a

good pace of growth. We are constantly identifying products, which can
be placed in the niche

areas to fuel the future growth. We have a few exciting product
launches ahead of us.

In Custom Synthesis we have shown strong growth in revenues on account
of ramp up of existing

products. We are also commercializing new products in the next few
quarters which will further

enhance our growth trajectory.”

.”


Outlook

 Agri-Input business in the long-term remains very strong, may see
some moderation in the

immediate term:

Agri-Input business in the long-term remains very strong, may see some
moderation in the
immediate term:

 The Rabi season is off to a subdued start given the erratic nature
of the N-E

monsoon. However PI continues to show growth based on its strong line-
up of

products

The Rabi season is off to a subdued start given the erratic nature of
the N-E
monsoon. However PI continues to show growth based on its strong line-
up of

products

 PI’s relationships with innovators and its strengths in product
development,

registration and product trial remains key to sustained growth.
Forthcoming Kharif

season to see introduction of some new products

PI’s relationships with innovators and its strengths in product
development,
registration and product trial remains key to sustained growth.
Forthcoming Kharif

season to see introduction of some new products

 Custom Synthesis to see healthy growth in revenue and margins based
on:

Custom Synthesis to see healthy growth in revenue and margins based
on:
 Robust order book position

Robust order book position
 Portfolio of early stage patented molecules which are expected

Portfolio of early stage patented molecules which are expected
 Progressive build-up in existing commercialized molecules

Progressive build-up in existing commercialized molecules
 Enhancement of manufacturing facilities

Enhancement of manufacturing facilities


On Feb 13, 9:14 am, mahesh <equityanalystinves...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Q3FY12 Results forPIIndustriesAnnounced -- Major Details :
>
> Revenue - 190.57 cr.   ( v/s our estimate of Rs. 223-245 cr.)
>
> EBITDA - 30.7 cr.        (v/s our estimate of Rs. 43-48 cr.)
>
> PAT - Rs. 11.43 cr.      (v/s our estimate of Rs. 23-26 cr.)
>
> EPS - Rs. 4.55            (v/s our estimate of Rs. 9.2-10.4)
>
> Prima-facie Analysis of Q3FY12 Results :
>
> Q3FY12 Results ofPIIndustriesare way below our conservative
> estimates and the main culprit seems to have been Agri-Input segment.
> As envisaged post Rallis Analyst Meet Takeaways on 25th Jan. 2012,
> Agri-Input segment seems to have suffered heavily although the exact
> details wrt. its revenue and profitability are still awaited from the
> Press Release and Concall commentry. The more disappointing part of
> the results is the continued pressure on margins which is contrary to
> management's own expectations as detailed by them in Q2FY12 concall
> commentry. EBITDA margins for the qrtr. at just 16.10 % while
> considering the fact that CSM segment enjoys high margins of 21 % +
> doesn't augur too well for Agri-input segment visibility.
>
> Since last many years, current qrtr. seems to be the first qrtr.
> whereinPiInd. has failed to outperform its major peer Rallis and we
> hope this is the one-off and company can get back on track in coming
> qrtrs.
>
> Detailed Press Release is awaited at the time of writing this and
> management commentry in the concall will be crucial.
>
> Will update of the details soon.
>
> Rgds.
>
> On Jan 3, 12:15 pm, "mahesh i. shah" <equityanalystinves...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> > Link to pdf of my Q3FY12 as well as 9'Month'FY12 estimate forPIIndustries
> > Ltd.
>
> >http://www.scribd.com/doc/76999128/
>
> > Rgds.
>
> >  Q3FY12Estimate.pdf
> > 314KViewDownload- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

mahesh

unread,
Feb 16, 2012, 1:14:28 AM2/16/12
to "GLOBAL SPECULATORS"

Key Takeaways from Q3FY12 Concall of PI Industries Ltd. :

(1) Agri-Input segment grew by 30 % YoY in 9'Months'FY12 to stand at
Rs. 397.2 cr.. For Q3FY12, Agri-Input segment grew by 16 % YoY to
stand at Rs. 102.2 cr.

(2) CSM segment grew by 65 % YoY in 9'Months'FY12 to stand at Rs. 242
cr.. For Q3FY12, CSM segment grew by 5 % YoY to stand at Rs. 88 cr.

(3) Uneven rains in many parts of the country affected the revenues of
Agri-Input segment in Q3FY12. Rabi season has started off on a very
sluggish scale and sluggishness is likely to persist for Q4FY12 too.

(4) EBITDA for 9'Months'FY12 grew by 40 % YoY to stand at Rs. 110.6
cr.. For Q3FY12, EBITDA grew by 18.3 % YoY to stand at Rs. 30.71 cr.

(5) Company's flagship product, Nominee Gold, registered a growth of
45 % YoY on a 9'Monthly basis.

(6) Order-book of CSM segment at the end of 9'Months'FY12 stands at
USD 340 mn.

(7) Company has taken additional debt in Q3FY12 in the form of ECB
worth USD 20 mn for the upcoming CSM plant. The Debt position at the
end of 9'Months'FY12 stands at Rs. 250 cr. up from Rs. 170 cr. at the
end of H1'FY12. Company's inventory position at the end of
9'Months'FY12 stands at Rs. 230 cr..

(8) The new CSM plant which was expected to be commissioned in Q1FY13
has got further delayed and is likely to get commissioned only in
Q2FY13.

(9) Management has scaled down its revenue guidance for FY12 to 30-35
% YoY growth in both the operational segments from earlier projected
40 % growth.

(10) In CSM segment, company is expecting to commercialise one new
molecule in Q4FY12 and expects good ramp-up in quarterly scale from
Q4FY12 onwards.



Conclusion :

First and foremost the subdued results for Q3FY12 necessitate the
need to revise our projection for FY12 which now stands at :


(a) Agri-Input segment revenues for FY12 likely to stand at Rs. 525
cr. v/s our earlier estimate of Rs. 575 cr.

(b) CSM segment revenues forecast for FY12 remains unchanged at Rs.
350-360 cr.

(c) Consolidated EBITDA for FY12 is likely to stand at Rs. 155-160
cr. v/s our earlier estimate of Rs. 170-178 cr.

(d) Consolidated PAT w/o exceptional items for FY12 is likely to
stand at Rs. 80-85 w/o incorporating any significant forex loss
v/s our earlier estimate of Rs. 91-96 cr.

(e) EPS for FY12 is likely to stand at Rs. 32 - 34 v/s our
earlier estimate of Rs. 36.3 - 38.3.



So, now, revision in numbers are done; -- next comes the key
concerns for the company which have cropped up first time since 2009,
the time from which company's CSM business started scale-up and its
Agri-Input segment registered tremendous growth each year YoY on the
back of exceptional performance of Nominee Gold :


(a) The scale-up in CSM segment order book has peaked off since last
two quarters and if such sluggish pace of addition continues for
another two quarters the margin of safety reduces for the company.

(b) The revenue growth in Agri-Input segment as also the margins is so
far driven mainly by Nominee Gold and just a slight sluggish
performance of this product in Q2FY12 as also Q3FY12 seems to have a
severe effect on margins of the segment.

(c) Company is expected to launch a blockbuster product similar to
Nominee in Q1FY13 which will again call for significant investments
on marketing side thereby affecting margins.

(d) Delay in commissioning of CSM plant ( first it was scheduled for
Q3FY12 then postponed to Q1FY13 and now again postponed to Q2FY13 )
doesn't augur well for the company as timely delivery is crucial for
sensitive CSM contracts and any further delay could severely impact
credibility of the company.


Having said all these does PI Industries merit a 'Sell' at current
juncture. A clear NO mainly because of the business model company
has as also the capable management team company posseses.


So, does it mean that PI Industries merits a 'Buy' at current
juncture. Again a clear NO as this is the first time since 2009
( the real year from which company's journey towards growth started )
that company is facing many headwinds and it is extremely crucial to
monitor each of the company's developments very closely as it is only
this stage from which many mid-cap companies falter to deliver. Next
two quarters will be really crucial.


To conclude, PI Industries is at best a 'Hold' at current juncture
as its historical trading band has been 15 times trailing earnings and
12 times forward earnings which gives us an actual price-band of Rs.
480– 600 by taking FY12e numbers as trailing base and FY13e numbers
as forward base. In absence of any significant corporate development,
chances of any sort of rerating in historically commanded valuations
are remote as company's operational segments are facing many
headwinds at present.

In case the monsoons don't deliver in ensuing kharif season, it will
severely impact PI Industries as major growth for Nominee Gold is
dependent on kharif season. Without Nominee, PI can't deliver on
margins.
Similarly, the margin of safety in CSM segment has reduced
considerably with its current order book being just 4.3 times FY12e
CSM segment revenues down from 5.6 times then FY11 revenues at the
end of FY11. Order-book is crucial for CSM segment as its a asset-
heavy business and at any point of time order-book should not go below
3.5 times CSM segment expected revenues for company to remain in a
comfortable position. As the scale of CSM segment is expected to
increase from current Q4FY12 onwards it will call for a greater pace
to addition in order-book and therefore next two quarters are going to
be crucial for PI.

On Feb 14, 9:49 am, mahesh <equityanalystinves...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Press Release rgdg. Q3FY12 Results issued :
>
> PI’s9M FY2012 EBITDA grows strongly at 40%
>
> EBITDA grows strongly at 40%
> Agri-Input shows solid growth of 30% YoY
>
> Custom Synthesis scales-up along expected lines, revenues up 65% YoY
>
> New Delhi, February 12, 2012:PIIndustriesLimited (PI), a leading
> Indian Agri-Input and Custom
>
> Synthesis company today announced its financial results for the third
> quarter ended December 31,
>
> 2011.
>
> PIIndustriesLimited (PI), a leading Indian Agri-Input and Custom
> monsoon. HoweverPIcontinues to show growth based on its strong line-
> up of
>
> products
>
> The Rabi season is off to a subdued start given the erratic nature of
> the N-E
> monsoon. HoweverPIcontinues to show growth based on its strong line-
> up of
>
> products
>
> PI’srelationships with innovators and its strengths in product
> development,
>
> registration and product trial remains key to sustained growth.
> Forthcoming Kharif
>
> season to see introduction of some new products
>
> PI’srelationships with innovators and its strengths in product
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
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