CITI INDIA: Our latest ECON ppt + links to some notes + Wishing you a Happy Holiday Season
Deepak Vaishnav
Hi,
Please find attached the Citi India Macro report released today. Citi India Economists have put together a set of updated presentations which give a quick overview of their current thoughts on the economy. Feel free to use any charts/tables that may be of interest to you. Also attached are a couple of links to a few India thematic reports.
As this is the last report for 2011, on behalf of Citigroup Economists, we would like to thank you all for your support and feedback….and here's wishing you and all at home a very happy holiday season and all the very best for 2012!!!
PRESENTATION: KEY POINTS - (Attached)
· GDP – 12 Tough Tasks To Sustain Growth at ~7%
· FX Vulnerabilities Increase
· External Debt – Short-term Debt Worries; Redemption Pressures Key to Monitor
· BOP – Flows Lower, But RBI/MOF has tools to Increase Flows
· Fiscal – Fiscal Consolidation on the Backburner: Assessing Debt Concerns
· WPI Inflation – Determined by Interplay Between Currencies and Commodities
· Rates – Easing cycle likely to be advanced to 1Q 2012
· Politics – Will the Policy Gridlock Ease
Excerpts from the report can be attributed to Rohini Malkani, Economist, Citi India.
REFERENCE NOTES:
1) Latest Macroscope - Latest Monthly & Global Fcts. India Macroscope: Tough Times = 12 Tough Tasks to Sustain Growth at ~7% in 2012
2) Latest Macro Updates:
(i) Dec Monetary Policy - RBI Leaves Rates Unchanged; Concerns on Growth Raises Odds of Early Easing; Announces Measures to Stem Rupee Weakness
(ii) Oct Factory Output - October Factory Output in the Red: Down 5.1%; Capital Goods Contract 25.5% – Will this Prompt Early Easing?)
(iii) Nov Inflation - India Macro Flash: Nov Inflation Drops 70bps to 9.1%; Base Effect to Lower Headline to ~7% by March ... Monetary Easing - Only a Matter of Time
(iv) Oct Public Finances - April-Oct Government Finances: Trends Unchanged - Slippages Priced In; But Could There be Offsets?
(v) Nov PMI - Nov PMI Moderates while Oct Infrastructure Grinds to a Halt – Could this Aid a Shift in Monetary Policy Stance?
3) A few Thematic Notes