Carl Sagan
MR JAMES EASTON
__________
I have accidentally come upon a text file which, given recent discussions
concerning Mr Sagan, I though may be of particular interest.
Obviously, I cannot verify it's authenticity, however, the original source
is mentioned, should anyone be interested in doing so.
[START]
Appearing in the _Stars and Stripes_ (a US Military newspaper), Monday,
November 26, 1962 (yes, 30+ years ago):
`` PROF SAYS BEINGS FROM OUTER SPACE HAVE VISITED EARTH
Los Angeles (AP) -- Some of the best scientific minds in the country
were stumped when a slender, dark-haired young man chalked on the
blackboard this equation:
N = R FP NE FL FI FC L
The speaker was Dr. Carl Sagan, a 28-year-old assistant professor
of astronomy at Harvard University.
His audience consisted of several hundred members of the American
Rocket Society, gathered for his luncheon address.
The equation was his way of expressing the mathematical probability
that intelligent beings from outer space have visited earth.
Sagan soberly explained that in his equation `N' stands for the
number of advanced technical civilizations in the universe
possessing the capability of interstellar communication.
`R' is the mean rate of star formation averaged over the lifetime of
the galaxy.
`FP' is the fraction of stars with planetary systems.
`NE' is the mean number of planets in each system with environments
favorable for the origin of life.
`FL' is the fraction of such planets on which life does develop.
`FI' is the fraction of such inhabited planets on which intelligent
life with manipulative abilities rises during the lifetime of the
local sun.
`FC' is the fraction of planets populated by intelligent beings on
which an advanced technical civilization rises.
And `L' is the lifetime of this technical civilization.
Sagan said information in his formula is based on current estimates
by astronomers. In making calculations, he assigned each symbol an
arbitrary numerical value.
As expressed in numbers, Sagan said, the formula means that at least
1 million of the 100 billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy have
planets which have developed civilizations capable of travel
between the stars.
"Let's say that each of these civilizations sends out one
interstellar expedition per year," he said.
"That means that every star, such as our sun, would be visited at
least once every million years. In some systems where these beings
found life, they would make more frequent visits. There's a strong
probability, then, that they have visited earth every few thousand
years.
"It is not out of the question that artifacts of these visits still
exist or even that some kind of base in maintained, possibly
automatically, within the solar system, to provide continuity for
successive expeditions.
"Because of weathering and the possibility of detection and
interference by the inhabitants of earth, it would be preferable not
to erect such a base on the earth's surface. The moon seems one
reasonable alternative.
"Forthcoming photographic reconnaissance of the moon from space
vehicles -- particularly of the back -- might bear these
possibilities in mind."
At a news conference, Sagan predicted man himself would be capable
of interstellar flight at close to the speed of light "within a
century or two."
Asked if he believed in flying saucers, he said: "I do believe there
are objects which have not been identified."
''
{end of article}
[END]
Cheers,
James.
..................+............
..*..../\/\/\/\/\../\/\/\/\/\.. How often have I said to you that when
........../\....../\........... you have eliminated the impossible,
....+..../\....../\/\/\/\/\.... whatever remains, however improbable,
......../\...+../\............. must be the truth.
.../\/\/\....../\/\/\/\/\/...*.
...........+................... Sherlock Holmes.
hsap...@clark.net
: I have accidentally come upon a text file which, given recent discussions
: concerning Mr Sagan, I though may be of particular interest.
: Obviously, I cannot verify it's authenticity, however, the original source
: is mentioned, should anyone be interested in doing so.
: [START]
: Appearing in the _Stars and Stripes_ (a US Military newspaper), Monday,
: November 26, 1962 (yes, 30+ years ago):
<Snip, snip>
The Drake Equation quoted in this article is simply a guess--nothing more.
With a single sample of intelligent life (I'm throwing us H. sapiens in
here as an example of intelligent life--perhaps I am in error) it is
impossible to extrapolate the true probability of other intelligent life
developing elsewhere in the universe let alone visiting us on Earth. That one
planet in the universe has developed sentient life is undeniable. That
this fact proves other sentient beings exist is untenable. Dr. Sagan's
enthusiastic predictions of years past can perhaps best be attributed to
youthful exuberance and ambition. I might suppose that he would blush
to read these quotations today.
From a statistical viewpoint, it does seem probable that other intelligent
beings exist. It is even possible that they have landed on Earth.
BUT, statistics are not proof even with good, solid data. Statistics
derived from a single data point are more useless than the astrology Dr.
Sagan sneers at.
We must demand to see the zebra before we are convinced that a horse
didn't leave the hoofprints.
--
| $ |
|---. ,---. ,---. ,---. . ,---. ,---. ,---. | "The secret is to bang
| | `---. ,---| | | | |---' | | `---. | the rocks together, guys."
` ' `---' `---^ |---' ` `---' ` ' `---' | -- Douglas Adams
| hsap...@clark.net |
Vladimir Godic
Speaking of Carl Sagan, here is a very interesting statement he made back in
(around) 1980:
"The universe is put together in such a way as to permit, if not guarantee,
the origin of life and development of complex creatures.
"There are 250 billion suns in our Milky Way galaxy, and billions of other
galaxies in the heavens. Perhaps half of these stars have planets at
biologically appropriate distances from the local sun. The initial chemical
constituens for the origin of life are the most abundant molecules in he
universe. Something like the process that on Earth led to man must have
heppened billions of other times in the history of our galaxy.
"There must be other starfolk."
Please note, he is not saying that "other starfolk" are visiting our planet.
Cheers,
Vladimir
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