For Sumerian (and anyone interested) on Malaysia, Australia and the global economy. Message 2/3

[xi]

In this second thread I will try describe how this crisis is making
evolve the global society and economy, what I have called here several
times the new civilization. In particular the three different sort of
roles or functions that will lead each country.

Previously, I have to pay a few words to describe the current
situation. "The current crisis marked the end of the American
lifestyle and the end of Asia's growth model" (*).

Reshaping the two main elements of any economy financial system and
economic structure. Both, the global financial system and the global
economic structure are reshaping.

Regarding the global economic structure, along the past three
centuries the global economic structure has been divided into
developed and developing economies. Developing economies have supplied
commodities and cheap work-force in form of migrant workers to
developed economies, and also cheap goods along the past 20 or 30
years. In return, developed economies (USA, Europe and later Japan)
had the responsibility to supply ways to improve the efficiency of
developing economies in form of expertise, know-how, technology, etc.
Somehow, great innovations in technology, expertise and know-how is
what had made the humankind as a whole to walk ahead along the
maturity path. Each individual society has walked ahead as much as it
has adopted those new technologies, know-how, precedures, etc. Three
centuries ago was expertise on how to use coal as source of energy,
electricity, transportation (railway), etc. 60 years ago know-how and
technologies about oil reshaped that society, 30 years ago information
and communication technologies, etc. And it ended up there. And
therefore, Asian export model is dead as much as American-European
consumption model is dead.

Regarding the financial system, until WW2 each metropolis and its
colonies shared each particular metropolitan curency, since WW2 the US
dollar had that mission globally. It is clear that US dollar cannot
play that role much longer (**). Other currencies are playing that de
facto role depending on their main-client-economy, I mean depending on
the country which supports the higher weight of trade. For Eastern
Europe, the de facto standard currency is the Euro, for Central Asia
in the Russian ruble, for the ASEAN starts to be the Chinese yuan,
etc.

I told several times that we have to expect economic and social blocs
or regions. Both Malaysia and Australia will be into the same bloc. In
fact, they both are already in the same bloc. I will describe that in
my next message in this thread.

Peace and best wishes.

Xi

(*) http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/24/content_11065965.htm

(**) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiS1BUOMzWdw&refer=home

[Xi Ling]

In this second message of the second thread, I will try to show the different region and economic blocs using some homemade pictures. They are accurate as far as drawing ellipses allowed me that is not too much. In addition, they do not show “islands” inside blocs and regions that probably will have different features that their surrounding areas. I mean that, for example, inside a region that has a main activity commodity production might dwell a fast growing area and vice versa. Red and gray do not mean wealthy and poor; they mean fast growth and lower growth or decline. This trend will last one or two centuries, therefore red areas will become wealthier than gray areas in the long term. However, I choose that picture because individual opportunities happen easier where growth is faster, not necessarily, where wealth is already present.

The reason because we can trust on this picture works lies on economic demography, and more in particular on works from prof. Paul Krugman, recent Nobel laureate in economics, for his definition on “hubs” or “monopolistic areas”. According to that works proximity and shorter distance create better conditions for related activities.

Therefore, we should expect that the area where 70% of the global population dwells, and will dwell, will become the most advanced area in social end economic terms. Both for production and consumption. That area is East, Southeast and South Asia.

Traditional developed areas will grow slower or even decline gradually along next few decades and centuries.

This is happening already. In addition, those economic blocs are more and more a fact. I think that does not require more words. For example, you probably can see easily that economic ties between Australia and China are harder and harder, gradually that trend will be stronger although conflicts might appear to delay those trends.

[Sumerian..]

Hi. very important message indeed.. But what did you mean by this For example, you probably can see easily that economic ties between Australia and China are harder and harder ( do you mean stronger and stronger? S1000+ PS: harder in here means difficult to achieve) , gradually that trend will be stronger although conflicts might appear to delay those trends. ======= S1000+ ======= --- On Wed, 3/25/09, Xi Ling <xieu...@gmail.com> wrote:

[xi]

<<you probably can see easily that economic ties between
Australia and China are harder and harder ( do you mean stronger and
stronger?>>

Yes, sorry, I meant stronger and stronger.

<<gradually that trend will be
stronger although conflicts might appear to delay those trends. >>

I meant, that both, Malaysia and Australia, are changing and they both
have to change much more within the next years and decades. Cultural,
ethnic conflicts are present in both countries. That sort of conflicts
become harder in transition periods like this one. I cannot predict
(it is politics and I do not know about it) how those conflicts can be
handled in each of those countries. To try to prevent the natural flow
of events creates conflicts and delays the future, and mismanagement
of such conflicts can delay it even longer and make it uncomfortable
for most people.

Peace and best wishes.

Xi

On Mar 26, 10:57 am, "Sumerian.." <sumerian...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Hi.
> very important message indeed..
>
> But what did you mean by this
>
> For example, you probably can see easily that economic ties between
> Australia and China are harder and harder ( do you mean stronger and stronger? S1000+ PS: harder in here means difficult to achieve) , gradually that trend will be
> stronger although conflicts might appear to delay those trends.
>
> =======
>   S1000+
>   =======
>

> --- On Wed, 3/25/09, Xi Ling <xieu.l...@gmail.com> wrote:

[Sumerian..]

Thanks for explaining. ======= S1000+ ======= --- On Thu, 3/26/09, xi <xieu...@gmail.com> wrote:

[xi]

Later today or maybe tomorrow, if I cannot today, I will post my last
information, current value of macromagnitudes, and prediction about
these two economies. I hope all this information is useful.

:)

Peace and best wishes.

Xi

On Mar 27, 1:18 pm, "Sumerian.." <sumerian...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Thanks for explaining.
>
> =======
>   S1000+
>   =======
>

> --- On Thu, 3/26/09, xi <xieu.l...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Xi- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -