Very good news ! (part 2)
Xi Ling
This thread follows "A hope for the global economy (part 1)"
http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/50e6bde7dcda3955#
and "How could be 2010"
http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/e240c2d4778a976d#
My comment: This is not a prediction yet, but we can see in the picture that it seems that the Baltic Dry Index consolidates its rise. I suggest to watch
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
clicking on Relative Strength and range 5 years (click on 5y above). We will watch that today Relative Strength -in the indicators row- is above 92 (scale 100) and also, we will see that the chart is drawing a shape like the letter U, and the bottom of that U is already behind us. This is why we called it a U-type crisis, as usual in economic crisis, versus V-type crisis that are usual in financial crisis.
Hereinafter, authorities must watch carefully not just economic activity, but also inflation, because it could rallyif economic activity raises too fast.
I have to repeat that this passes to Main Street in at least 6 to 9 months, and it uses to be one whole year. If finally this trend goes on, rebound in Main Street would happen probably in early 2010.
Please, also read this article "Iron Ore Rebounding as Vale, BHP Face Cuts From China (Update1)"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azc6MrwvxeFk&refer=home
in particular this: "The tone of the iron ore market has definitely changed," said Ric Ronge, who helps manage the equivalent of $1 billion at Pengana Capital in Melbourne
And this one "China Stocks Rise to Four-Month High, Led by China Cosco Gains"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHf559Hglp3c
Also, I have to repeat that this scenario would not apply in full to some economies that, beside the global crisis, have their own local crisis such as some in Europe -UK, Iceland due to financial crisis or Eastern Europe, Ireland and Spain due to construction crisis-, USA due to fiscal, structural and financial crisis, and some commodity producers with large population which budgets lie above 30% or 40% on commodity exports such as Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and others. Also, some countries such as China are using this crisis to change its development model, that change could be finished within 2009 or not, if not probably the first half of 2010 would be hard yet. Also, we should not expect that India leaves this crisis too soon as it depends too closely on developed economies and it is not changing its development model. In my opinion, the areas where we will see more clear this rebound in 2010 will be Japan, SKorea, Latinamerica (except Venezuela and Ecuador), Africa, Middle East (except Iran and Iraq) and ASEAN (except Malaysia). I can forget some large commodity producers.
If rise in global activity and international trade consolidates along next coming months, hopefully slowly, we should expect that it will push equipment and manufacturing in the second half of 2009 and in 2010 it will push consumption, goods, retail, consumer services, etc. In most economies not cited above, it will mean that their growth rates will be closer to rates that they had until 2008.
It will affect price inflation that probably will rise again after this short close-to-deflationary time. As most of those economies will not be too large, the deflationary recession in Europe and USA and limited growth in those countries could neutralize each to other, commodities will rise slowly and it will produce some inflation but not too high. If China finishes its transition in 2009, global inflation, in particular related to comodities, would rally.
If growth pass through contagion to US economy and the rest of Europe at the end of 2010, the hyperinflationary crisis would start. But this will be another message, if someone shows interest on that.
Peace and best wishes.
Xi
xieu...@gmail.com
it is a good sign that means recovery of economic activity.
"The tone of the market has become bullish," Sharma said. (Quoted
from that article).
Peace and best wishes.
Xi
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7w06t5iA97s
Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- India’s iron-ore export prices are expected to
double from last year’s low as China, the world’s biggest steel
producer, raises purchases, an industry group said.
Prices for immediate delivery are expected to increase to as much as
$90 a metric ton in the “near-term,” compared with $45 in November,
said R.K. Sharma, secretary general of the Federation of Indian
Mineral Industries, a grouping of iron-ore miners. Prices are
currently about $84 a ton, he said.
China’s steelmakers, which cut output in the second half, are
benefiting from the 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) federal stimulus
plan to revive growth. India’s iron-ore exports in December rose 38
percent, the first gain in eight months.
“The tone of the market has become bullish,” Sharma said.
China’s package, which will increase spending on housing and
railroads, has revived steel demand, the Ministry of Commerce said on
Feb. 5. Benchmark steel prices in the country jumped 46 percent from
November when the government announced the stimulus package.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of bulk commodity shipping costs, more
than doubled between Feb. 6 and the 22-year low touched on Dec. 5.
India produced 160 million tons of iron ore in the year ended March
31, of which two-thirds was sold to China, according to the
federation. The nation holds 25 billion tons of ore reserves, 4
percent of which is high-quality ore.
Steel demand may rise by the end of the first quarter, Lou Schorsch,
head of the flat-rolled business in the Americas for Luxembourg-based
ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, said last week.
International prices of iron ore and coking coal, the main steelmaking
materials, surged to a record last year.
On 9 feb, 14:27, Xi Ling <xieu.l...@gmail.com> wrote:
> This thread follows "A hope for the global economy (part 1)"
>
> and "How could be 2010"
>
> My comment: This is not a prediction yet, but we can see in the picture that
> it seems that the Baltic Dry Index consolidates its rise. I suggest to watch
>
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
>
> clicking on Relative Strength and range 5 years (click on 5y above). We will
> watch that today Relative Strength -in the indicators row- is above 92
> (scale 100) and also, we will see that the chart is drawing a shape like the
> letter U, and the bottom of that U is already behind us. This is why we
> called it a U-type crisis, as usual in economic crisis, versus V-type crisis
> that are usual in financial crisis.
>
> Hereinafter, authorities must watch carefully not just economic activity,
> but also inflation, because it could rallyif economic activity raises too
> fast.
>
> I have to repeat that this passes to Main Street in at least 6 to 9 months,
> and it uses to be one whole year. If finally this trend goes on, rebound in
> Main Street would happen probably in early 2010.
>
> Please, also read this article "Iron Ore Rebounding as Vale, BHP Face Cuts
> From China (Update1)"
>
> 2 KVerDescargar
xieu...@gmail.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqN5rMh7KKcQ
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Russian metals and mining stocks climbed for a
seventh day after Morgan Stanley upgraded steelmakers and metal prices
climbed on signs demand is returning in China.
OAO Severstal, Russia’s biggest steelmaker, jumped to the highest in
almost four months, while OAO Mechel rallied 18 percent after Morgan
Stanley recommended the shares. OAO Raspadskaya, which makes coking
coal for the steel industry, surged 12 percent. Iron ore prices last
week posted their biggest advance this year.
The Micex Metal & Mining Index jumped 4.4 percent to 1,705.44 as of
3:11 p.m. in Moscow, gaining 35 percent in seven days, the longest
winning streak in two months. The broader Micex Index rose for a
second day, adding 3.7 percent as oil and gas companies also
increased. The RTS Index added 7.1 percent, its biggest advance in two
weeks.
“There is hope for a recovery based on China,” said Constantin
Demchenko, head of trading at Everest Asset Management in Moscow. “All
international names were buying.”
Severstal shares jumped 5.2 percent to 149.16 rubles on the Micex
Stock Exchange after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to “overweight”
from “equal-weight.”
Mechel, the coal and steel producer controlled by billionaire Igor
Zyuzin, increased 18 percent to 173.50 rubles in Moscow, the most
since the stock began trading on the Micex this year. Morgan Stanley
raised the stock to “overweight” from “underweight.”
‘Marked Pickup’
“It is now clear that there has been a marked pickup in export volumes
for Russian steel producers,” Morgan Stanley analysts Dmitriy
Kolomytsyn and Marina Zavolock in Moscow wrote in a report dated
today. “Steel traders within China are also pointing to increased
imports from Russia, indicating that Chinese buying has caused some
Russian producers to sell out of April export shipments.”
Steelmakers are also benefiting from the ruble’s decline as their
costs are based in the local currency, while revenue is dollar-based,
said Morgan Stanley, which estimated the cost of Russia steelmaking is
40 percent below the world average. The ruble fell 36 percent against
the dollar since July 14.
Raspadskaya jumped 4.23 ruble, or 12 percent, to 38.44 rubles on the
Micex Stock Exchange.
Iron Ore Climbs
Chinese iron ore spot prices jumped 5 percent last week, the biggest
gain this year. The price is quoted once a week. Iron ore is
recovering from a three-year low just as Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, Rio
Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. start talks with Asian steelmakers
to set prices for annual supply contracts.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of the cost to ship commodities that’s
used as a gauge for demand, has advanced for 14 consecutive days. It
jumped 9.6 percent on Feb. 6.
OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s biggest mining company, rose 7.4
percent to $4.63 in London. Nickel for three-month delivery rose for a
second day on the London Metal Exchange. Copper also gained.
On Feb 10, 3:38 pm, "xieu.l...@gmail.com" <xieu.l...@gmail.com> wrote:
> My comment: Of course, 100% rise of any price is not good news. But
> it is a good sign that means recovery of economic activity.
>
> "The tone of the market has become bullish," Sharma said. (Quoted
> from that article).
>
> Peace and best wishes.
>
> Xi
>
>
> - Show quoted text -