Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss
Assessment of the situation
16 views
Skip to first unread message
Eskimo Will
Dec 6, 2011, 12:16:20 PM12/6/11
to
Wow is all I can say, this is why I love winter with all its drama.
The deep low set to come over or close to northern Scotland is not even on
the charts yet but it will develop explosively as a shallow wave is excited
on the low-level baroclinic zone in the North Atlantic. This then phase
locks with an upper trough and high PV coming south from west of Greenland
and rapidly deepens late Wednesday into Thursday and is then steered by the
jet towards Scotland. The depression looks like being warm cored meaning
that close to the centre wet-bulb freezing levels will be up around 400
metres or so asl but deep cold air will be tucking in round it. Winds could
well exceed 70 knots (hurricane force in northern Scotland) and as the cold
air tucks in, blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) are likely on hills
above 200 metres asl bringing white-out conditions in the mountains. Given
the warm core as part of the seclusion process the snow is likely to be of
the wet sticky variety and hence poses a significant risk of ice accretion
on power lines, especially Thursday evening when some truly horrific
conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly
with power cuts). The winds will also generate a surge down the North Sea
which is being discussed elsewhere. The London barrier will be raised no
doubt and Holland should worry.
Now the cold front will sweep SEwards on Thursday, the main feature being a
rapid fall of temperature with possibly a short spell of sleet/snow on its
back edge, even on low ground in England. Before then though the air in the
warm sector is quite mild and may give rise to temporary snow-melt in some
upland areas. Then we have a frosty ridge on Friday.
Meanwhile the very cold (exceptionally cold?) air over Greenland will
continue to leak south lowering North Atlantic SSTs even more and push the
baroclinic zone a notch further south meaning that the next rapidly
deepening Atlantic low could slam further south into the UK early next week
after some respite over the weekend (rain and hill snow but just normal
wind). Further ahead I cannot see any end to this cold westerly zonality
which will tend to get even colder with time due to lowering SSTs and the
time of year!
Phew, I think that's enough from me!
Exciting cheers,
Will
--
The deep low set to come over or close to northern Scotland is not even on
the charts yet but it will develop explosively as a shallow wave is excited
on the low-level baroclinic zone in the North Atlantic. This then phase
locks with an upper trough and high PV coming south from west of Greenland
and rapidly deepens late Wednesday into Thursday and is then steered by the
jet towards Scotland. The depression looks like being warm cored meaning
that close to the centre wet-bulb freezing levels will be up around 400
metres or so asl but deep cold air will be tucking in round it. Winds could
well exceed 70 knots (hurricane force in northern Scotland) and as the cold
air tucks in, blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales) are likely on hills
above 200 metres asl bringing white-out conditions in the mountains. Given
the warm core as part of the seclusion process the snow is likely to be of
the wet sticky variety and hence poses a significant risk of ice accretion
on power lines, especially Thursday evening when some truly horrific
conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the northern Isles (possibly
with power cuts). The winds will also generate a surge down the North Sea
which is being discussed elsewhere. The London barrier will be raised no
doubt and Holland should worry.
Now the cold front will sweep SEwards on Thursday, the main feature being a
rapid fall of temperature with possibly a short spell of sleet/snow on its
back edge, even on low ground in England. Before then though the air in the
warm sector is quite mild and may give rise to temporary snow-melt in some
upland areas. Then we have a frosty ridge on Friday.
Meanwhile the very cold (exceptionally cold?) air over Greenland will
continue to leak south lowering North Atlantic SSTs even more and push the
baroclinic zone a notch further south meaning that the next rapidly
deepening Atlantic low could slam further south into the UK early next week
after some respite over the weekend (rain and hill snow but just normal
wind). Further ahead I cannot see any end to this cold westerly zonality
which will tend to get even colder with time due to lowering SSTs and the
time of year!
Phew, I think that's enough from me!
Exciting cheers,
Will
--
Dave Cornwell
Dec 6, 2011, 12:30:34 PM12/6/11
to
Thanks Will. So Scotland back to the weather of bygone years. Winters
seem to becoming "normal" again!
Dave
fred
Dec 6, 2011, 12:35:28 PM12/6/11
to
hurricane force in northern Scotland
truly horrific conditions are likely in northern Scotland and the
northern Isles (possibly
with power cuts)
blizzards (heavy snow and severe gales)
Bring it on.
Logs are chopped
Eskimo Will
Dec 6, 2011, 12:42:38 PM12/6/11
to
"fred" <ball...@googlemail.com> wrote in message
news:78e21230-d9a5-444b...@i8g2000vbh.googlegroups.com...
Seriously though, it could be quite nasty, even by Scottish standards,
"enjoy it" if you can though.
Will
--
fred
Dec 6, 2011, 12:55:49 PM12/6/11
to
On Dec 6, 5:42 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> "fred" <ballo...@googlemail.com> wrote in message
I know. I trust you.
I have already précised your synopsis to all our guys on the ground
( with a view to safe home - every night )
Fred
> "fred" <ballo...@googlemail.com> wrote in message
I have already précised your synopsis to all our guys on the ground
( with a view to safe home - every night )
Fred
Paul Crabtree
Dec 6, 2011, 2:32:45 PM12/6/11
to
Cheers Will, really enjoy reading these thorough assessments, great
stuff !
Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria
stuff !
Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria
Gypsum Joe
Dec 6, 2011, 3:16:28 PM12/6/11
to
superb run down Will
keep up the good work
keep up the good work
Dave Liquorice
Dec 6, 2011, 4:27:42 PM12/6/11
to
On Tue, 6 Dec 2011 11:32:45 -0800 (PST), Paul Crabtree wrote:
> Cheers Will, really enjoy reading these thorough assessments, great
> stuff !
Yeah, I like 'em as well but I'm not so keen with 1/3 of the house we
> Cheers Will, really enjoy reading these thorough assessments, great
> stuff !
are living in, whilst another 1/3 is being renovated, is reliant on
electricty for heating. And another 1/3rd has a couple of raditors
out of action so one bedroom is also electrically heated...
I don't like ice storms, makes it really difficult to move about.
Snow at least responds to a plough or blower.
--
Cheers Dave.
Nr Garrigill, Cumbria. 421m ASL.
Richard Dixon
Dec 6, 2011, 4:32:30 PM12/6/11
to
On Dec 6, 5:16 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> Exciting cheers,
Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another
thread.
Richard
> Exciting cheers,
Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another
thread.
Richard
Eskimo Will
Dec 6, 2011, 5:14:47 PM12/6/11
to
"Richard Dixon" <richsdi...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:41194e9f-7e03-4ce1...@m10g2000vbc.googlegroups.com...
Hey Richard, no need to apologise. What you posted was most interesting,
especially in the context of what you said yesterday with Denmark in the
firing line. Interesting times!
Cheers,
Will
--
Skypilot
Dec 6, 2011, 6:54:51 PM12/6/11
to
Cheers Will, keep it/them a comin'! Another newsgroup suggesting a
shift in the NAO after mid month - thoughts?
Jay.
Mid Antrim.
shift in the NAO after mid month - thoughts?
Jay.
Mid Antrim.
ronaldbutton
Dec 7, 2011, 5:51:10 AM12/7/11
to
Yes as everybody says Will ,great stuff with your clear assesment,which
reminds me to bring up the question of freezing levels again,apart from
yourself freezing levels are seldom mentioned in any weather forecasts
especially from the Met Office .
Snow levels are now being mentioned more frequently on the Beeb ,but not
freezing levels ,which if they were it would give everybody an idea of how
they would be likely affected when the snows come .
I know the great British Public are not generally believed to handle deep
scientific data ,but the inclusion of forecast freezing levels shouldn't be
too difficult to handle ....
I think I will make this my own private campaign until our betters concur
RonB
"Eskimo Will" <wi...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:L5sDq.20$0r...@newsfe01.ams2...
reminds me to bring up the question of freezing levels again,apart from
yourself freezing levels are seldom mentioned in any weather forecasts
especially from the Met Office .
Snow levels are now being mentioned more frequently on the Beeb ,but not
freezing levels ,which if they were it would give everybody an idea of how
they would be likely affected when the snows come .
I know the great British Public are not generally believed to handle deep
scientific data ,but the inclusion of forecast freezing levels shouldn't be
too difficult to handle ....
I think I will make this my own private campaign until our betters concur
RonB
"Eskimo Will" <wi...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:L5sDq.20$0r...@newsfe01.ams2...
Gavino
Dec 7, 2011, 6:36:58 AM12/7/11
to
"ronaldbutton" <ronb...@ntlworld.com> wrote in message
news:9k8uou...@mid.individual.net...
> Snow levels are now being mentioned more frequently on the Beeb ...
Here in Spain, snow levels are a standard part of forecasts in winter, as we
have a far greater range of altitudes than the UK.
Last week, we had the snowline down to 1000m in some places, which affects
many people as several provincial capitals lie above this.
(I have to suppress a laugh every time Will talks of 'living at alitude'
- at around 300m. :-))
news:9k8uou...@mid.individual.net...
> Snow levels are now being mentioned more frequently on the Beeb ...
Here in Spain, snow levels are a standard part of forecasts in winter, as we
have a far greater range of altitudes than the UK.
Last week, we had the snowline down to 1000m in some places, which affects
many people as several provincial capitals lie above this.
(I have to suppress a laugh every time Will talks of 'living at alitude'
- at around 300m. :-))
Eskimo Will
Dec 7, 2011, 12:10:57 PM12/7/11
to
"Skypilot" <skypil...@googlemail.com> wrote in message
news:d2fb9eea-de52-4189...@n6g2000vbg.googlegroups.com...
increase in wavelength as jet reaches south of 50N. Far too early to say
what the outcome of this could be. Could produce a high over Euroland with
warm Sw'lies or a high mid-atlantic with a cold northerly. After such events
mobility normally resumes anyway. For a reversal of NAO I'd say we need a
stratwarm event. However, all this is a bit speculative to be honest. Let's
just enjoy the next week which is going to be packed with weather!
Will
--
Eskimo Will
Dec 7, 2011, 12:13:53 PM12/7/11
to
"Gavino" <inv...@invalid.invalid> wrote in message
news:9k91el...@mid.individual.net...
> (I have to suppress a laugh every time Will talks of 'living at alitude'
> - at around 300m. :-))
>
Oi, I like my superior height, in a relative way.
> - at around 300m. :-))
>
Anyway it is over a *thousand* feet or *twelve thousand* inches :-)
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------
Lawrence13
Dec 7, 2011, 12:53:33 PM12/7/11
to
On Dec 7, 11:36 am, "Gavino" <inva...@invalid.invalid> wrote:
> "ronaldbutton" <ronbut...@ntlworld.com> wrote in message
_________________________________________________________________________________________
That's because you have an altitude problem-get over it.
> "ronaldbutton" <ronbut...@ntlworld.com> wrote in message
That's because you have an altitude problem-get over it.
Richard Dixon
Dec 7, 2011, 2:06:02 PM12/7/11
to
On Dec 6, 10:14 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> "Richard Dixon" <richsdixon1...@gmail.com> wrote in message
The Met Office beta site is interesting as I suspect their site-
specific forecasts there are from the 1.5km model, judging from the
domain.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/beta/weather/forecast/?tab=fiveDay&locId=351351
Both Edinburgh (link above) and Glasgow gusting to the mid-70s
according to this. Not dramatic but interesting enough...
Richard
> "Richard Dixon" <richsdixon1...@gmail.com> wrote in message
specific forecasts there are from the 1.5km model, judging from the
domain.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/beta/weather/forecast/?tab=fiveDay&locId=351351
Both Edinburgh (link above) and Glasgow gusting to the mid-70s
according to this. Not dramatic but interesting enough...
Richard
Paul C
Dec 7, 2011, 4:18:48 PM12/7/11
to
On Dec 7, 7:06 pm, Richard Dixon <richsdixon1...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Dec 6, 10:14 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
>
>
> > "Richard Dixon" <richsdixon1...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> >news:41194e9f-7e03-4ce1...@m10g2000vbc.googlegroups.com...
> > On Dec 6, 5:16 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
> > > Exciting cheers,
>
> > Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another
> > thread.
>
> > Richard
> > =============
>
> > Hey Richard, no need to apologise. What you posted was most interesting,
> > especially in the context of what you said yesterday with Denmark in the
> > firing line. Interesting times!
>
> The Met Office beta site is interesting as I suspect their site-
> specific forecasts there are from the 1.5km model, judging from the
> domain.
>
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/beta/weather/forecast/?tab=fiveDay...
> On Dec 6, 10:14 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
>
>
> > "Richard Dixon" <richsdixon1...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> >news:41194e9f-7e03-4ce1...@m10g2000vbc.googlegroups.com...
> > On Dec 6, 5:16 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
> > > Exciting cheers,
>
> > Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another
> > thread.
>
> > Richard
> > =============
>
> > Hey Richard, no need to apologise. What you posted was most interesting,
> > especially in the context of what you said yesterday with Denmark in the
> > firing line. Interesting times!
>
> The Met Office beta site is interesting as I suspect their site-
> specific forecasts there are from the 1.5km model, judging from the
> domain.
>
>
> Both Edinburgh (link above) and Glasgow gusting to the mid-70s
> according to this. Not dramatic but interesting enough...
>
> Richard
87 mph gusts for here (Ayrshire) tomorrow afternoon
> Both Edinburgh (link above) and Glasgow gusting to the mid-70s
> according to this. Not dramatic but interesting enough...
>
> Richard
Eskimo Will
Dec 7, 2011, 5:27:08 PM12/7/11
to
"Paul C" <hoddl...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:9686a168-4ec2-401c...@cs7g2000vbb.googlegroups.com...
Will
--
Paul C
Dec 7, 2011, 5:45:08 PM12/7/11
to
On Dec 7, 10:27 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> "Paul C" <hoddles...@gmail.com> wrote in message
Now that's breezy.
> "Paul C" <hoddles...@gmail.com> wrote in message
Richard Dixon
Dec 7, 2011, 5:58:50 PM12/7/11
to
On Dec 7, 7:06 pm, Richard Dixon <richsdixon1...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Dec 6, 10:14 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > "Richard Dixon" <richsdixon1...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> >news:41194e9f-7e03-4ce1...@m10g2000vbc.googlegroups.com...
> > On Dec 6, 5:16 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
> > > Exciting cheers,
>
> > Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another
> > thread.
>
> > Richard
> > =============
>
> > Hey Richard, no need to apologise. What you posted was most interesting,
> > especially in the context of what you said yesterday with Denmark in the
> > firing line. Interesting times!
>
> The Met Office beta site is interesting as I suspect their site-
> specific forecasts there are from the 1.5km model, judging from the
> domain.
>
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/beta/weather/forecast/?tab=fiveDay...
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > "Richard Dixon" <richsdixon1...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> >news:41194e9f-7e03-4ce1...@m10g2000vbc.googlegroups.com...
> > On Dec 6, 5:16 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
> > > Exciting cheers,
>
> > Sorry Will - I'd not seen this and posted my take on it in another
> > thread.
>
> > Richard
> > =============
>
> > Hey Richard, no need to apologise. What you posted was most interesting,
> > especially in the context of what you said yesterday with Denmark in the
> > firing line. Interesting times!
>
> The Met Office beta site is interesting as I suspect their site-
> specific forecasts there are from the 1.5km model, judging from the
> domain.
>
>
> Both Edinburgh (link above) and Glasgow gusting to the mid-70s
> according to this. Not dramatic but interesting enough...
>
> Richard
Apologies, I have been corrected by a Mr J. O'Rourke and it's in fact
> Both Edinburgh (link above) and Glasgow gusting to the mid-70s
> according to this. Not dramatic but interesting enough...
>
> Richard
the 4km model.
Richard
Skypilot
Dec 7, 2011, 6:59:33 PM12/7/11
to
On Dec 7, 5:10 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> Let's just enjoy the next week which is going to be packed with weather!
>
> Will
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Let's just enjoy the next week which is going to be packed with weather!
>
> Will
Cheers Will!
Jay.
(Tying the dog down ahead of tonight/tomorrows breeze - ouch!!)
haaark
Dec 8, 2011, 4:16:52 AM12/8/11
to
On Dec 7, 11:59 pm, Skypilot <skypilot7...@googlemail.com> wrote:
> On Dec 7, 5:10 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
> > Let's just enjoy the next week which is going to be packed with weather!
>
> > Will
>
> __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> On Dec 7, 5:10 pm, "Eskimo Will" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
> > Let's just enjoy the next week which is going to be packed with weather!
>
> > Will
>
>
> Cheers Will!
>
> Jay.
> (Tying the dog down ahead of tonight/tomorrows breeze - ouch!!)
Glad I'm not in Port Ellen this morning! -wind gusting to 40 mph and
> Cheers Will!
>
> Jay.
> (Tying the dog down ahead of tonight/tomorrows breeze - ouch!!)
visibility of 20 metres?- How can you have fog so thick with wind that
strong? AWS misreading? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/
0 new messages