International experts foresee collapse of U.S. economy
indiaBPOking
And you thought that I had a gloomy outlook on the economy. Now the
bad news pops up everywhere.
Harry Koza in the Globe and Mail quotes Bernard Connelly, the global
strategist at Banque AIG in London, who claims that the likelihood of
a Great Depression is growing by the day.
Martin Wolf, celebrated columnist of the U.K.-based Financial Times,
cites Dr. Nouriel Roubini of the New York University's Stern School of
Business, who, in 12 steps, outlines how the losses of the American
financial system will grow to more than $1 trillion - that's one
million times $1 million. That amount is equal to all the assets of
all American banks.
Every day now, thousands of people all over the U.S. and Great Britain
are walking away from their homes - simply mailing their house keys to
the banks - as housing bailout plans fail.
With unemployment growing, the next phase will hit commercial real
estate making the financial institutions the unwilling owners not only
of quickly depreciating houses, but also of empty strip malls and even
larger shopping centres.
The next domino to fall will be credit card defaults, and after
that... who knows? There are so many exotic funds out there, with
trillions of dollars in paper - or rather computer-screen money - all
carrying assorted acronyms, and all about to disintegrate into
nothingness. Over the next couple of years, scores of banks that have
thrived on these devices, based on quickly disappearing equities, will
fail.
The most frightening forecast so far comes from the Global Europe
Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), available for 200 euros - about $300 -
for 16 issues annually. Its prediction is quite specific.
Where my warnings never spelled out an exact date, this think tank has
it pegged precisely. Here are its very words:
"The end of the third quarter of 2008 (thus late September, a mere
seven months from now) will be marked by a new tipping point in the
unfolding of the global systemic crisis.
"At that time indeed, the cumulated impact of the various sequences of
the crisis will reach its maximum strength and affect decisively the
very heart of the systems concerned, on the front line of which (is)
the United States, epicentre of the current crisis.
"In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into -
get this - a collapse of the real economy, (the) final socio-economic
stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and
of the pursuance of the U.S. dollar fall. The collapse of U.S. real
economy means the virtual freeze of the American economic machinery:
private and public bankruptcies in large numbers, companies and public
services closing down."
The report goes on to say that we are entering a period for which
there is no historic precedent. Any comparisons with previous
situations in our modern economy are invalid.
We are not experiencing a "remake" of the 1929 crisis nor a repetition
of the 1970s oil crises or 1987 stock market crisis.
What we will have, instead, is truly a global momentous threat - a
true turning point affecting the entire planet and questioning the
very foundations of the international system upon which the world was
organized in the last decades.
The report emphasizes that it is, first and foremost, in the United
States where this historic happening is taking an unprecedented shape
(the authors call it "Very Great U.S. Depression").
It continues to predict that, although this crucial event is global,
it will be the beginning of an economic 'decoupling' between the U.S.
and the rest of the world. However, non 'decoupled' economies will be
dragged down the U.S. negative spiral.
Concerning stock markets, the GEAB anticipates that international
stocks would plummet by 40 to 80 per cent depending where in the world
they are located, all affected in the course of the year 2008 by the
collapse of the real economy in the U.S. by the end of summer.
The European authors of this report - it appears simultaneously in
French, German and English - state that they simply and without
prejudice try to describe in advance the consequences of the ominous
trends at play in this 21st-century world, and to share these with
their readers, so that they can take the proper means to protect
themselves from the most negative effects.
So there you have it. Three reports from three different sources, all
well regarded, and all pointing to a disastrous fall-out from our
monetary moves.
Vid...@tcq.net
they are simply saying somewhat, what i have been saying. decoupling
is a suckers myth. this will be global. once the markets work their
miracles, and they always do, they will collapse. then the decoupling,
and reforms will occur.
the trick for all is not to succumb to fascism, or some form of it.
free markets are quite comfortable will fascism, so the ground work is
already been laid for it.
free markets is a form of extremism, so the extremist will lash out
in rage as their feverish cult collapses. about the only countries who
will not be completely wiped out maybe some south american countries
that are pulling back fast. asian and european countries will really
be hit hard.
GeekBoy
"indiaBPOking" <indiab...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:7faa400b-0699-4516...@d21g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
Straydog
I don't know why you are making a big deal out of this (unless it is
just part of your anti-US propaganda), everyone has been talking about
the economy for at least a year. "Now the bad news pops up
everywhere"? I've been reading it everywhere for at least a year.
harryh...@yahoo.com
Keep your eye on 2012. That's about when it will all go to smash.
John Galt
<harryh...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:cd2f213b-33c1-497b...@z17g2000hsg.googlegroups.com...
2012? OK, now we know where you get your prognostications from:
http://www.satansrapture.com/nostra2012.htm
:-)
JG
Vid...@tcq.net
hi lisa,
fill me in. whats up? i am all ears.
jose
>
> - Show quoted text -
The Dems have been bad mouthing the president and his policies for
more than a year, try seven years. The Dems are finally getting what
the have so diligently been striving for; economic collapse while
under
Republican rule. Obviously, none of the liberal Dems have heard of
self fulfilling prophecy. Thank the liberal Dems if the economy tanks.
forbi...@msn.com
> The Dems have been bad mouthing the president and his policies for
> more than a year, try seven years. The Dems are finally getting what
> the have so diligently been striving for; economic collapse while
> under
> Republican rule. Obviously, none of the liberal Dems have heard of
> self fulfilling prophecy. Thank the liberal Dems if the economy tanks.
Yeah, it had nothing to do with Bush league economics.
harryh...@yahoo.com
It's just a hunch. The cracks are starting to gape, but that doesn't
mean that the structure will come down instantly. Economies, in fact,
usually hobble along even if they're seriously compromised, because
the economic elite is also the political elite, and they resist change
(as all elites do).
However, more damage is coming. Keep your eye on the dollar, and keep
your eye on financial institutions. They're holding a lot of trash.
Lisa
indiaBPOking
Vid...@tcq.net
yep, they could be right, decoupling will happen, but only after the
laissez-faire global economy implodes. and it always does. they could
be right on the countries that rely on external consumption, they are
deer in the head lights. i see that stock markets world wide are
taking hard hits. foreign diversification looks rather foolish at the
moment.
Straydog
real estate activity in the USA would not be hit hard as the housing
industry has been.
Some of you guys should be thinking why some of these articles are
coming out with such unbalanced conclusions. Again, the falling USD
will make exports from the USA much more competitive and imports much
more expensive. Its really bad news for India, BPO king, and anyone
selling anything to the USA.
Straydog
http://www.ecogito.net/anil/2005/02/boy-who-topped-nasa-but-didnt.html
The boy who topped NASA but didn't..
On February 17th, Rediff along with many other Indian news agencies
reported that a 17 year old boy from Uttar Pradesh, Saurabh Singh had
topped the NASA International Scientist Discovery exam. I thought it
was interesting and checked Google News for other related reports, but
it seemed that only Indian news agencies were reporting it. Pretty
strange for an exam of supposedly high repute. Not even the main
Google search engine had anything to say about this exam.
Nevertheless, the story kept getting bigger and bigger with newspapers
reporting that the Indian president had taken the exam in 1960 and
'finished seventh' while astronaut Kalpana Chawla had 'stood 21st in
1988'.
Ah, it keeps getting curioser and curioser. One newspaper, the Indian
Express (check facts? real journalists don't check no facts!) even
wrote about the tough exams that he passed. "He scored a mere A+ for
Electronics and he is furious with himself". His school announced a
scholarship - the Saurabh Singh scholarship for Rs. 40,000. The UP
Legislative Assembly decided to 'honor him' and declared that every
member would donate a day's salary to him.
Every bubble of bullshit has to break due to its own pressure. The
enterprising reporter who contacted NASA for further information must
have really shocked the folks out there. Of course, NASA doesn't have
any such exam, nor did Abdul Kalam or Kalpana Chawla take those
fictitious exams. (The Indian Express reported that the President had
'expressed a desire to meet him' - Well, Kalpana Chawla being dead
cannot dispute the story, but did someone really get that news from
the office fo the President who must have surely remembered that he
had never taken such an exam? This must be a new high in news
reporting). The whole story would have been ridiculously hilarious, if
not for the fact that it shows (sadly) how easily the media and with
it, an entire nation can be manipulated!
UPDATE: Google News shows that the scam has been outed all over