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Tropical Cyclone Weekly Summary #63 (October 11 - 18, 1992)

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JACK

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Oct 21, 1992, 1:15:13 PM10/21/92
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This report is compiled from warnings issued by:
National Hurricane Center
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Naval Western Oceanography Center
Fiji Meteorological Service
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japanese Meteorological Agency
Royal Observatory of Hong Kong
Indian Meteorological Department
Reunion Meteorological Service
Mauritius Meteorological Service
(others may be added as they become available)


WEEKLY TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY #63: OCTOBER 11 - 18, 1992

North Atlantic Basin: No tropical cyclones.

Eastern North Pacific Basin (E of 140 Deg. W):

Tropical Storm Xavier: Tropical Depression 25E formed near 10N 107W on 13
October. Moving west, the system reached tropical storm strength and a peak
intensity of 40 kt later that day. Xavier continued west the next day as it
weakened to a depression, and it dissipated near 10N 114W on 15 October. This
storm tied the record for most storms in an Eastern North Pacific hurricane,
which was originally set in 1985.

Tropical Storm Yolanda: Tropical Depression 26E formed near 11N 110W on 16
October. Moving rapidly westward, the system became the record-breaking twenty-
third storm of the season later the same day. Yolanda turned west-northwest on
17 October, and it continued this track through the end of the summary period.
Yolanda slowly intensified through the rest of the summary period, and at the
end of it the storm was packing 55 kt winds.

Central North Pacific Basin (180 Deg. W to 140 Deg. W): No tropical cyclones.

Western North Pacific Basin (W of 180 Deg. W):

Typhoon Yvette: At the start of the summary period, Yvette was drifting
northeastward east of the Philippine Islands with 130 kt winds. Yvette contin-
ued northeast through 12 October, then it turned north-northeast on 13 October
and continued this through the next day. Winds dropped off to 110 kt on 12 Oc-
tober, then a major re-intensification began. Yvette reached a peak intensity
of 155 kt on 14 October based on 3 independent Dvorak satellite classifications
of T7.5. This would yield an ESTIMATED minimum central pressure of 885 mb.
Yvette started to weaken on 15 October as it turned northeast. This general
track was maintained until the storm became extratropical. Yvette dropped be-
low typhoon intensity on 17 October, and the system became extratropical near
31N 146E on 18 October. Fortunately for the residents of the region, Yvette
stayed far enough from any land mass to avoid causing serious effects.

Tropical Storm Zack: At the start of the summary period, former tropical
storm Zack was drifting northward with 25 kt winds. Zack continued an erratic
northward motion through 12 October, then it turned west-northwest on 13 Octo-
ber as it started to re-intensify. During this time, the center passed over
Minamtorishima Island (a. k. a. Marcus Island), which reported a minimum
pressure of 992.9 mb. Zack regained 35 kt tropical storm winds on 14 as it
turned north again, then the system weakened to a depression the next day as
it moved erratically northwest. Zack turned northeast on 16 October before
dissipating late that day near 30N 156E. Zack was a large and disorganized
system through its entire lifetime, and there is some possibility it had mul-
tiple centers at one time. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that it more
resembled a subtropical system than a tropical system during the latter half of
its lifetime.

Typhoon Angela: Tropical Depression 24W formed in the South Chian Sea near
14N 119E on 16 October. Drifting west and then southwest, the system reached
tropical storm intensity the next day. Angela reached typhoon intensity on 18
October, and at the end of the summary period it was moving west with 70 kt
winds.

Tropical Storm Brian: Tropical Depression 25W formed near 11N 160E on 17
October. Moving west, the system became Tropical Storm Brian later that day.
Brian continued west through the end of the summary period, and it that time it
was packing 55 kt winds.

Tropical Storm Colleen: Tropical Depression 26W formed on 17 October near
11N 134E. Initially moving west, the system turned west-northwest the next day
as it reached tropical storm strength. At the end of the summary period, Col-
leen was moving west-northwest with 40 kt winds.

North Indian Ocean Basin: No tropical cyclones.

South Indian Ocean Basin (W of 135 Deg. E):

Tropical Cyclone 02S: Tropical Cyclone 02S formed near 11S 81E on 18 Octo-
ber. At the end of the summary period it was moving southwest with 30 kt winds.

South Pacific Ocean Basin (E of 135 Deg. E): No tropical cyclones.

Disclaimer: While an effort has been made to make sure this information is
accurate as possible, it was drawn from operational warnings that may not
always agree with the best track information published after the storm is
over. Please address any questions or comments by e-mail to:

ja...@cloud3.met.fsu.edu.

Past copies of the Tropical Cyclone Weekly Summary can be obtained via e-
mail. Please send an e-mail message if you are interested.

Lance Andrewes

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Oct 23, 1992, 5:14:38 PM10/23/92
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I was impressed by this TAF (aerodrome forecast) issued by Guam (ICAO indicator "PGUM"). Not sure if the offending cyclone is mentioned in this Weekly Summary (#63). Wouldn't you have just _loved_ being the forecaster :-) Non- forecasters may not be impressed by this TAF, so I've followed it by one of more conventional size. The forecast begins with the validity following PGUM - "2121". That means it is valid from 2100UTC on the issue day to 2100UTC the following day. The lines that begin INTER, TEMPO, GRADU and RAPID are similarly followed by a four figure group that gives the validity period for a temporary change within the main validity period. The groups that look like "06015/25KT" give the forecast wind direction (060 deg), average speed (15knots) and gusts (25knots). This forecast goes for a RAPID change in wind between 0800 and 1000UTC to 210 degress at 80 knots, with gusts 110 knots. Did the forecast work out? I guess not. The following forecast went for an increase to average winds of 90 knots, but the ones issued after that steadily improved. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to look at the hourly observations. Are there any aviation forecasters out there who have issued a longer TAF? Did your hair turn grey that day? :-) Aerodrome forecast for Guam, issued 19 October UTC: TAF PGUM 2121 06015/25KT 9000 17TS/80RASH 1ST006 1CB010 4CU014 4SC030 7AC100 8CS250 540005 QNH2972INS CIG030 LLWS TS VCNTY INTER 2121 4800 81XXSH 1CB010 5CU012 8AC080 CIG012 TEMPO 2121 0800 95TS/82XXSH 2ST008 2CB010 5CU012 8AC/AS080 CIG012 GRADU 2200 04025/40KT 9000 60RA/80RASH 1CB010 4CU014 5SC030 7AC100 8CS250 621604 550009 580909 582009 QNH2970INS CIG030 LLWS TS VCNTY RAPID 0204 09060/70KT 8000 60RA/80RASH 1ST008 2CB010 6CU012 4NS020 8AC/AS080 8CC/CS250 621604 580009 580909 582009 QNH2968INS LLWS TS VCNTY RAPID 0810 21080/110KT 8000 61RA/80RASH 1ST008 3CB010 6CU012 5NS020 8SC030 6221604 580009 580909 582009 CIG012 QNH2970INS LLWS TS VCNTY INTER 0821 16070/100KT 0800 62RA/82XXSH 3ST008 3CB010 6CU012 CIG012 COR I The following forecast was issued 23 October: TAF PGUM 0303 RTD VRB05/15KT 9999 3CU012 3AC100 5CI300 QNH2983INS CIG300 ISOLD TS VCNTY WND 00000KT AFT 12Z TEMPO 0303 8000 80RASH 3CU012 5SC030 CIG030 _______ Email: la...@lancea.actrix.gen.nz //// ZL2AJH Wellington, New Zealand
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