Global Warming FAQ, tentative outline
Michael Tobis
be replaced by BRIEF paragraphs with references to widely available literature
where possible. Where possible, I will follow IPCC and IPCC '92.
Suggestions for further topics, suggestions for references for these
topics, arguments and quibbles gratefully accepted. I'll suspend work on
this for a couple of weeks in hopes of some assitance from out there in
net land.
Responses by email preferred.
-----
HUMAN INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING FAQ
PURPOSE OF THIS FILE
Despite the fact that interest in the topic is relatively new, the
question of human induced global warming has spawned a great mass of writing,
and it is not the intention of this file to offer another introduction to the
topic. Rather, it is an effort to collect responses to questions that
appear with some regularity, often prompted by confused and
frequently biased reporting in popular media. There is much controversy
within the various fields of science that touch on this field, but there
is a good deal that is uncontroversial as well. The purpose of this text is
to identify the uncontroversial aspects so as to avoid continual recycling
of discussion around them, and to point readers to well-founded discussions
of the issues.
The author of this file is doing research which is largely
motivated by this material, but is not centered on it. Accordingly,
he is almost certainly not the most knowledgeable person on the net
on these issues. However, he is quite interested not only in the subject,
but also in the question of how complex technical issues are handled in
a democratic context, and is thus interested in the question both for
its intrinsic content and as an instance of this larger question.
Accordingly he has been watching the discussion of this issue on the
net with close attention and is therefore perhaps better qualified to
identify the most frequently answered questions than to answer them.
Comments, corrections, dissensions, and suggestions for further
additions to the list are welcome.
LIST OF QUESTIONS
...
FAQ TYPE 1: WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT ISN'T
Where can I read about these issues in general?
IPCC REPORT, UNEP PAMPHLETS, PEIXOTO & OORT, TRENBERTH
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN,BENARDE,ABRAHAMSON
What is "global change","global warming","greenhouse effect"?
THREE RELATED BUT NOT IDENTICAL CONCEPTS DEFINED
How can humans affect climate?
LOCAL EFFECTS. DUST. OZONE DESTRUCTION. GREENHOUSE GASES.
The greenhouse effect is just a theory, and many scientists don't believe
it, right?
WRONG. IT IS NO MORE IN DISPUTE THAN GRAVITY. THE DETAILS OF THE
CLIMATE RESPONSE TO HUMAN PERTURBATIONS ARE CONTROVERSIAL, BUT
THE EXISTENCE OF THE EFFECT IS NOT.
What is certain about human induced changes in the greenhouse effect?
IPCC TOP 5 CONCLUSIONS
What important effects are likely according to the consensus opinion?
IPCC OTHER CONCLUSIONS
What are the sources of evidence for this consensus?
THEORY, OBSERVATION, SENSITIVITY STUDIES, MODELS
What are the reasons for doubt about this consensus?
CLOUDS, OCEANS. MODEL PROBLEMS. NONLINEARITY.
What contribution do numerical models make?
CONFIRMATION, REGIONAL RESPONSE, TIMING, IDENTIFYING PHENOMENA
How reliable are these models
INADEQUATE TO THE TASK AS YET, BUT THERE IS REASON FOR OPTIMISM
HENDERSON-SELLERS, W.WASHINGTON
What are the important economic impacts of the likely changes?
AGRICULTURE,SEA LEVEL RISE,SEVERE EVENTS
SEE N.A.S.
Is it true that all else being equal, CO2 increases agricultural yields?
YES. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT MANY REGIONS WILL HAVE LESS
SOIL MOISTURE. SOME FARMERS WILL BENEFIT FROM CO2 FERTILIZATION
AND LONGER GROWING SEASONS. THE NET EFFECT MAY WELL BE POSITIVE.
What will happen to the likelihood of severe events?
VERY UNCERTAIN. MANY REGIONS MAY HAVE NEW THREATS. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT DROUGHTS INCREASE. IMPACT ON SEVERE STORMS UNKNOWN.
What about sea level?
COVERED IN ANOTHER FAQ
What are the important ecological impacts of the likely changes?
SEVERE STRESS ON FLORA DUE TO LIMITED MOBILITY, LOSS OF
COASTAL WETLANDS
PIELOU,HUGGETT,BOLIN
Can we be sure that the climatological community is unbiased?
NO. BUT COGENT CRITICISM IS MORE USEFUL THAN VAGUE SUSPICIONS.
PLEASE BASE YOUR CRITICISMS ON EVIDENCE.
How can I contribute as an aspiring scientist?
READ THE IPCC REPORT, FIND AN ANGLE CLOSE TO YOUR SKILLS, INTERESTS
SUGGEST BROAD MATH & SCIENCE IN UNDERGRAD, FOCUSSED GRAD WORK
How can I contribute as a layman?
READ THINGS WRITTEN BY SCIENTISTS, NOT JOURNALISTS. DON'T BELIEVE
EVERYTHING YOU READ, EVEN FROM SOURCES YOU TRUST. JOURNALISTS
ARE EASILY MISLED ON COMPLEX SCIENTIFIC ISSUES. IF YOU THINK
RESPONSE IS NEEDED, SUPPORT ENERGY CONSERVATION, OPPOSE FOSSIL FUEL
ESPECIALLY COAL.
FAQ TYPE 2: THE HISTORICAL AND GEOLOGIC RECORD
What has the climate done in the past?
SOME ICE FREE HOT PERIODS. LAST MILLION YEARS SHOW AN OSCILLATION
INTO/OUT OF ICE MAXIMA. ORBITAL FORCING BELIEVED MAIN FACTOR.
CIVILIZATION DEVELOPED DURING AN OPTIMUM (ICE MINIMUM). NATURAL
TREND BEGINNING TO SHOW COOLING. WARMEST TIME ABOUT 5000 YEARS AGO,
UNSTEADY DECLINE SINCE. "LITTLE ICE AGE" MEDIEVAL TIMES
How well have poeple adapted to climate change in the past?
CLIMATE CHANGE CORRELATES PLAUSIBLY WITH COLLAPSE OF SEVERAL
IMPORTANT CIVILIZATIONS
Is the earth warming already?
THE EARTH HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST CENTURY
Is the observed warming due to the greenhouse effect?
QUITE PROBABLY BUT NOT CERTAINLY
Are there natural models in the geologic past for the anticipated change?
NOT ON A GLOBAL SCALE. THERE ARE A FEW LOCAL EXAMPLES OF RAPID CHANGE
How do the projected changes compare to the onset of a glacial cycle
COMPARABLE IN SIZE BUT MUCH FASTER
How do the projected absolute temperatures compare to natural temepratures
AT THE HIGH END OF PREDICTIONS, UNPRECEDENTED FOR 1,000,000 YEARS
What about the Younger Dryas event?
A SUDDEN RETURN OF GLACIAL CONDITIONS TO EUROPE AT THE END OF THE
LAST GLACIATION. LOCAL TO EUROPE. BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO SHIFT IN
GULF STREAM DUE TO SUDDEN FLUX INTO N ATLANTIC FROM N AMERICAN
MELT WATER. SEVERAL POINTS OF RELEVANCE: RAPID CHANGES, LOCAL
CHANGE OPPOSED TO GLOBAL CHANGE, OCEAN CIRCULATION, DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN GLACIER FORMATION & GLACIER ADVANCE
FAQ TYPE 3: CRITICISMS WITHOUT BASIS IN FACT (Flagrantly Addled Quibbles)
How can you predict climate if you can't predict weather?
THEY ARE NOT THE SAME THING. STATISTICS vs EVENTS
Is climate chaotic?
MAYBE, BUT ONLY ON VERY LONG TIME SCALES
Climate is too mysterious to predict...
THERE ARE MANY MYSTERIES BUT THE BROAD OUTLINES ARE KNOWN
Climate is nonlinear and unexpected effects are possible.
THIS IS A REASON FOR CONCERN, NOT FOR COMPLACENCY, AS IT
INDICATES THAT HUMAN INPUTS MAY HAVE LARGE EFFECTS
The geological record seems to show that temperature changes started
_before_ CO2 changes.
THIS IS A REASON FOR CONCERN, NOT COMPLACENCY, AS IT INDICATES
A POSITIVE (EXACERBATING) FEEDBACK. IT IS PUZZLING.
The same people who warned about the ice age say warming is happening.
MAYBE SOME. SOME OF THE PEOPLE WHO DENIED THE POSSIBILITY OF OZONE
LOSS ARE DENYING IT. LET'S DISCUSS THE ISSUE ON ITS MERITS.
Most scientists are not certain that global warming has begun
THEY INTERPRET IT AS A STATISTICS QUESTION. PHRASING IT
AS "BELIEF" RATHER THAN "CERTAINTY" WILL GREATLY CHANGE RESULT.
Even Greenpeace poll shows only 40% of scientists believe in
runaway greenhouse.
THE KEY IS "RUNAWAY", REFERS TO BOILING OCEANS. SEE BOILING
OCEANS QUESTION.
Many scientists do not believe the consensus
TRUE, BUT MORE DO. THAT'S WHAT MAKES IT A CONSENSUS.
Reality doesn't operate by consensus.
TRUE, BUT THE BEST BET IS STILL THE BEST BET.
Many scientists say the earth is cooling
WRONG TIME SCALE
Greenhouse warming is wrong. The ice age is coming.
SAME ERROR. WRONG TIME SCALE AGAIN
In the age of the dinosaurs, the earth was much warmer
DIFFERENT ERROR, VERY WRONG TIME SCALE
Won't the Gaia feedbacks save us?
NOT ON THE TIME SCALE OF INTEREST
The sun is dimming anyway and this will cancel the predicted warming
NO EVIDENCE
The sun is brightening and this caused the observed warming
UNLIKELY
Negative feedbacks may cause cooling
THEY MAY REDUCE WARMING, BUT CAN'T CAUSE COOLING
Volcanos may cause cooling
IRRELEVANT UNLESS VOLCANIC ACTIVITY INCREASING
Water is the most important greenhouse gas!
YUP. BUT EVAPORATION INCREASES WITH TEMPERATURE, EXACERBATING EFFECT
WE ARE AWARE OF THIS AND TAKE IT INTO ACCOUNT.
Tropical ocean cloudiness limits warming!
YUP. WE ARE AWARE OF THIS AND TAKE IT INTO ACCOUNT.
Models are unreliable
THEY ARE NOT THE ORIGIN OF THE CONCERN BUT AGREE WITH THEORY
Historical record doesn't overwhelmingly show warming and observed change
is quite small.
IT IS NOT THE ORIGIN OF THE CONCERN BUT AGREES WITH THEORY
Who cares if it gets a little warmer?
CHANGE WILL NOT BE UNIFORM. DRASTIC CHANGE IN SOME PLACES LIKELY
Larny Riven and Perry Journelle say in "Teenage Geek Saves Mars From
Bureaucratic Commies and Eventually Gets a Girl" that...
SPARE US. SCIENCE FICTION WRITERS ARE NOT PEER REVIEWED. HEARSAY
FILTERED THROUGH POP FICTION IS NOT EVIDENCE.
I have data record A, anecdotal evidence B, that shows cooling
OK, ADD IT TO THAT HUGE PILE OVER THERE. THE RECORD IS NOISY
AND DIVERSE. JUDGING FROM A SMALL AMOUNT OF DATA IS INAPPROPRIATE.
FAQ TYPE 3: CONCERNS WITHOUT BASIS IN FACT
This is the most important issue of our time!!!
PROBABLY NOT, THOUGH IT DOES RELATE TO BIODIVERSITY, OVERPOPULATION,
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, GEOPOLITICS, ALL
OF WHICH ARE PROBABLY MORE IMPORTANT.
Cutting the rainforest destroys oxygen!!!
INSIGNIFICANT
Earth will become unihabitable!!! Oceans will boil!!!
NONSENSE
Problem is not energy or industry but deforestation!!!
WAS A LARGE PART OF EARLY SMALL INCREASE, BUT NOT IMPORTANT
IN CURRENT AND FUTURE LARGE INCREASES
I have data record C, anecdotal evidence D, that shows rapid warming!!!
OK, ADD IT TO THAT HUGE PILE OVER THERE
FAQ TYPE 4: STRATEGIES WHICH DON'T REALLY WORK
massive dust releases
SUPERPOSITION OF TWO OPPOSITE GLOBAL CHANGES MAY RIGHT THE GLOBAL
AVERAGE, BUT MAYBE NOT THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
planting lots of trees
INSIGNIFICANT UNLESS TREES ARE HARVESTED AND SEQUESTERED OR USED
--
mt
Michael Tobis
to...@meteor.wisc.edu
Michael Tobis
crowds of greens and libertarians and the ensuing flamefest that the climate
issue seems to attract should be left for that group which can handle the
traffic, leaving this group for professionals and hobbyists, imho. Still,
I thought I should post the list here while it's being developed, to keep
myself honest and get the opinions of other professionals.
I'd like to thank those who've responded so far. As of yet, no one has told
me I'm out of line with either the general idea or the outlined responses.
I'd appreciate if those offering suggestions for the list would provide
references, preferrably to widely available publications, to back up their
points. Better yet, you could just write the answer yourself, saving me the
trouble and most likely applying more expertise to the specific question
than I have. Again, recall that there is much controversy on this topic in
the lay public, and references would help a lot.
mt