Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss

Home Runs: Mark McGwire vs. Bo Jackson

5 views
Skip to first unread message

Space Coon

unread,
Jun 10, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/10/98
to

When Bo Jackson's injury removed him from baseball and
football, it seems to me that he was fast becoming one
of the greatest all-round players in the game. Both
his home run totals and batting average rose every
consecutive year he played before the "big" injury.

With all the talk about Big Mac's colossal home runs
this year, I was wondering how you all thought Bo
Jackson would be doing if he had remained healthy
during his career. I remember him being one of the
premier long-home run hitters in his first few years
in the majors (remember that 500 ft+ blast to dead
center in the All-Star game?). He had a pretty good
glove, which was also improving at the time.

Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
'98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?

Take it easy,
E

"He started heading for the motorway." |
The Pixies |
|
MST3K Tape Trading! --> http://www.usd.edu/~ekaufman |
--------------------------------------------------------*


Dan Holmes

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980610154950.6116A-100000@sunburst>,
ekau...@usd.edu says...

>
> Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
> '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
> Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?
>
>
>
No. Bo Jackson was a great athlete who had two decent ML seasons. He
didn't have the skill IMO to hit hit 60+ homers. I think you overstate
his baseball ability a little.

Sean Lahman

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

More than a little, if he's putting him in the same neighborhood as
Griffey and McGwire. Consider each players top-five HR totals:

Griffey: 56 49 45 40 27
McGwire: 58 52 49 42 39
Jackson: 32 28 25 22 16

But hey, they all have seven letters in their last name.

--
Sean Lahman / se...@baseball1.com
The Baseball Archive - http://www.baseball1.com

Rob McLean

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to


Sean Lahman wrote:

> Dan Holmes wrote:
> >
> > In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980610154950.6116A-100000@sunburst>,
> > ekau...@usd.edu says...
> > >
> > > Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
> > > '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
> > > Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > No. Bo Jackson was a great athlete who had two decent ML seasons. He
> > didn't have the skill IMO to hit hit 60+ homers. I think you
> > overstate his baseball ability a little.
>
> More than a little, if he's putting him in the same neighborhood as
> Griffey and McGwire. Consider each players top-five HR totals:
>
> Griffey: 56 49 45 40 27
> McGwire: 58 52 49 42 39
> Jackson: 32 28 25 22 16
>
> But hey, they all have seven letters in their last name.

Can someone do a Brock5 on Bo and seem if he would've had HOF numbers?

--RMc


Phil Lecuyer

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

how can you state that? bo proved he could excel at ANY sport he played.
noone said he'd be MVP, just that he could hit alot of homeruns if he had
stuck to the game......

wasn't bo an all-star? last i knew, you had to be a decent player to play
in that game......then again, maybe i'm overstating the importance of the
all-star game.....
Dan Holmes wrote in message ...

Nelson Lu

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

In article <1p7B919r1e64$8...@bigrig.devens.net>,

Phil Lecuyer <ph...@dangelosubs.com> wrote:
>how can you state that? bo proved he could excel at ANY sport he played.
>noone said he'd be MVP, just that he could hit alot of homeruns if he had
>stuck to the game......

How do you know this?


>
>wasn't bo an all-star? last i knew, you had to be a decent player to play
>in that game......then again, maybe i'm overstating the importance of the
>all-star game.....

Jackson was voted in. And voters are not known to be particularly great in
their skills of picking deserving players.

===============================================================================
GO ANAHEIM ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (n...@cs.stanford.edu)

Sean Lahman

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Rob McLean wrote:
>
> Can someone do a Brock5 on Bo and seem if he
> would've had HOF numbers?

Sure, but bear in mind that Bo Jackson was already 26 when he played his
first full season, and played only four seasons before his injury.

I ran the Brock projection based on his play before the injury. The top
of the chart shows his actual stats (1986-1990). The bottom shows what
Brock projects.

Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
1986 25 25 82 9 17 2 1 2 9 7 .207
1987 26 116 396 46 93 17 2 22 53 30 .235
1988 27 124 439 63 108 16 4 25 68 25 .246
1989 28 135 515 86 132 15 6 32 105 39 .256
1990 29 111 405 74 110 16 1 28 78 44 .272
------------------------------------------------
1991 30 133 505 69 121 16 3 28 81 46 .239
1992 31 133 484 69 120 17 2 27 78 48 .249
1993 32 140 512 66 124 17 2 25 78 49 .242
1994 33 73 240 30 57 8 1 11 34 26 .237
1995 34 43 124 16 29 4 0 5 17 20 .232
1996 35 19 43 5 10 1 0 1 6 5 .233
Tot 1052 3746 532 921 128 23 206 606 339 .246

The most similar player to that would be Pete Incaviglia (.247/206
HRs). Others would include Ron Gant (.258/223 HRs thru 1997), Kevin
McReynolds (.265/211 HRs), Dave Henderson (.258/197 HRs).

Space Coon

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Dan Holmes wrote:

> In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980610154950.6116A-100000@sunburst>,
> ekau...@usd.edu says...
> >
> > Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
> > '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
> > Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?
> >
> >
> >
> No. Bo Jackson was a great athlete who had two decent ML seasons. He
> didn't have the skill IMO to hit hit 60+ homers. I think you overstate
> his baseball ability a little.
>

I disagree. Jackson and McGwire both entered the league at nearly
the same time, so some comparison *is* possible. The only year
in which they were both playing, and that McGwire clearly out
powered Jackson was their rookie season of '87 (49 HRs to 22, if
I remember the stats I just reviewed correctly). Every year after
that, Jackson's power numbers went up while McGwire's jumped
all over the place. Jackson actually put up *far* better
numbers than McGwire in Jackson's last full season (before
the "big" injury)-- .272 with 28 homeruns to McGwire's .250 (approx)
and 39 homeruns. The big difference? Jackson did it with over
a hundred fewer at-bats.

He arguably only had two "decent seasons" as you say, but
the guy practically only played three years (damn football).
We need to remember the hypothetical nature of this thread.
Look at what he was accomplishing when his career got cut
short-- constant improvement, *every* *single* *year*.
If I had asked you in 1990 if Mark McGwire or Cecil Fielder
had better shot at the Maris record, I'll bet Fielder
would have been the answer. McGwire was considered an
inferior power hitter to his bash-bro Canseco. I doubt
many would have said McGwire had the skill to break 61
at that point in his career, yet we know now that he
will easily threaten the record.

I once heard a sportswriter make a comment about he hardest
he ever "heard" a baseball being hit, making reference to
the sound a baseball makes when it is absolutly "drilled".
He had three examples. He heard the sound when Babe Ruth
smacked a home run, he heard it again when he happen
to see Josh Gibson play in a negro league game. He said
he never heard the sound again until he saw Jackson hit
a home run out of Kauffman Stadium.

I think Jackson, had he remained in good health and shunned
football, would have been a candidate to shatter the record.

Of course, this is all my own ridiculous opinion. And don't get
me wrong, McGwire is an *animal*. I can't wait to see him hit
when he comes to rough up my beloved Twins in a month or so,
about the only thing I like about interleague play.
I guess all this talk of long home runs just makes me long
for the days of Bo.

Take it easy,
E
Baseball Rocks

Sean Lahman

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Space Coon wrote:
> Jackson and McGwire both entered the league at nearly
> the same time, so some comparison *is* possible. The only year
> in which they were both playing, and that McGwire clearly out
> powered Jackson was their rookie season of '87 (49 HRs to 22, if
> I remember the stats I just reviewed correctly). Every year after
> that, Jackson's power numbers went up while McGwire's jumped
> all over the place. Jackson actually put up *far* better
> numbers than McGwire in Jackson's last full season (before
> the "big" injury)-- .272 with 28 homeruns to McGwire's .250 (approx)
> and 39 homeruns. The big difference? Jackson did it with over
> a hundred fewer at-bats.

McGwire out-homered Jackson every year, except the two seasons where
McGwire was injured.

Yr 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Bo 2 22 25 32 28 3 - 16 13 - - -
Mac 3 49 32 33 39 22 42 9 9 39 52 58

But Jackson was also five years older than McGwire, so his 87-90 stats
reflected his prime, while McGwire was still maturing physically. A
better way to compare is by age.

Yr 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Bo - - - 2 22 25 32 28 3 - 16 13 -
Mac 3 49 32 33 39 22 42 9 9 39 52 58 ?

What this shows is a Bo Jackson whose career had a much smaller arc --
it started later, never reached the same height, and ended earlier.
Even without the inevitable football injury, it would have ended mcuh
sooner than McGwire's (see my other post with the Brock5 projections).


> Look at what he was accomplishing when his career got cut
> short-- constant improvement, *every* *single* *year*.

He was a .250 hitter with some power. His K/BB ratio was about 5 to 1.
He was an All-star only once, and that was based more on his popularity
(Nike adverts) than his performance.


> I think Jackson, had he remained in good health and shunned
> football, would have been a candidate to shatter the record.

There's nothing to indicate he would have come remotely close. More
likely, the 32 homers he knocked in 1989 woul've been his career high.


> I guess all this talk of long home runs just makes me long
> for the days of Bo.

Bo certainly was fun to watch. No doubt he was a good player, but he
was nowhere close to the level at which McGwire is playing today, and
never would have been.

Brett D. Wilson

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Space Coon (ekau...@usd.edu) wrote:
: I once heard a sportswriter make a comment about he hardest

: he ever "heard" a baseball being hit, making reference to
: the sound a baseball makes when it is absolutly "drilled".
: He had three examples. He heard the sound when Babe Ruth
: smacked a home run, he heard it again when he happen
: to see Josh Gibson play in a negro league game. He said
: he never heard the sound again until he saw Jackson hit
: a home run out of Kauffman Stadium.

Others have addressed the substance of these claims, and I defer to their
judgment entirely. My contribution is admittedly less: the
"sportswriter" who said this was Negro Leaguer Buck O'Neil in the Ken
Burns _Baseball_ documentary. --BW.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brett Wilson | "An ideology really succeeds
Program in Comparative Literature | when even the facts which at
and Literary Theory | first sight contradict it
University of Pennsylvania | start to function as arguments
| in its favor" --Slavoj Zizek.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
bwi...@dept.english.upenn.edu * http://dept.english.upenn.edu/~bwilson


Rufus Xavier Sarsparilla

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

In article <6lp57b$m61$1...@nntp.Stanford.EDU>,

Nelson Lu <n...@Xenon.Stanford.EDU> wrote:
>In article <1p7B919r1e64$8...@bigrig.devens.net>,
>Phil Lecuyer <ph...@dangelosubs.com> wrote:
>>how can you state that? bo proved he could excel at ANY sport he played.
>>noone said he'd be MVP, just that he could hit alot of homeruns if he had
>>stuck to the game......
>
>How do you know this?

Obviously, we can't know anything about what might've been, but it seems a
fair assumption, given his record, that he would have likely remained a good
home run hitter for several more years. I like the comparison to Pete
Incaviglia, from a numbers standpoint. At his peak, he was never an MVP
type, but he could help a lot of teams out, particularly teams needing more
power. Henry Rodriguez is probably this type of player today.

I'm not giving up Bonds or Griffey for him, but he's okay.

>>
>>wasn't bo an all-star? last i knew, you had to be a decent player to play
>>in that game......then again, maybe i'm overstating the importance of the
>>all-star game.....
>
>Jackson was voted in. And voters are not known to be particularly great in
>their skills of picking deserving players.
>

Well, in general, the voters are not too bad. They don't notice Kendall is
having a much better season than Piazza, but they seem to have noticed
David Segui, who is hardly a superstar.

But for Bo Jackson, there's one factor that separates him from the Pete
Incaviglias of the world. He was _amazingly_ fun to watch. His Home
Runs were huge. His reactions were visible from the cheap seats. He was
a modern legend, star of two sports, most powerful man alive kind of thrill.
Now, this doesn't make him a better player, by any means - unless you are
concerned about filling seats. Bo Jackson, it could be argued, was worth
more money than a better player because he excited the fans, and got people
to come to the games. And, well, the all-star game is a cheap thrill, I
don't have a lot of problems with the Bo Jacksons of the world getting to
grandstand. It's fun.

It's debatable whether it's better to pay for players who draw crowds, or
players who win games. Just how is Orioles attendance doing?

--
Kirby Krueger O- kir...@best.com
<*> "Most .sigs this small can't open their own jump gate."

Space Coon

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

These projections are fine, but this number-crunching engine
is not Bo Jackson. The art of baseball is swamped in statistics,
a concept better used to measure current performance, not
future possibilities. Whatever fomula this projection used
is entirely skepticism, as nobody can determine what any
one man can do at any given time. I have my doubts that running
Cecil Fielder's numbers through the template in 1989 would
project him to hit 50 homeruns in 1990. How about Brady
Anderson just a few years back? I'll laugh in the face
of anyone who says they knew that was coming.

Yes, Jackson was older than McGwire when he broke into the majors,
and age does tend to slow an athlete down. But even this assumption
can be tossed out. Nolan Ryan was throwing no-hitters in his
forties. Satchel Paige was most likely far older than that
when he won rookie of the year, and he continued to put
up great numbers for several years after that. Some
others? Cal Ripken, George Brett, and Mike Schmidt all put
up All-Star numbers at ages considered past their prime.

These projections only mean something if your playing
video-game baseball, because only human beings actually
play the games. Not computers.

Later,
E

Thomas R Scudder

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Space Coon (ekau...@usd.edu) asieoniezi:
: These projections only mean something if your playing

: video-game baseball, because only human beings actually
: play the games. Not computers.

Well, it's a good thing we actually had Jackson PLAY those games,
then, eh?

Too bad he didn't do as well as that projection might have indicated.

--
Tom Scudder aka tom...@umich.edu <*> http://www-personal.umich.edu/~tomscud
Squeezing flinthead trout "I contradict myself? Very well,
in their massive jaws, sparks fly: I contra- hey, wait. No I don't!"
Bears discover fire.

Sandalio Gonzalez

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Sean Lahman wrote:

> Bo certainly was fun to watch. No doubt he was a good player, but he
> was nowhere close to the level at which McGwire is playing today, and
> never would have been.

Bo was a great athlete that excelled in two sports without
possibly being able to devote enough attention to either one in the
offseason (training, preparing, honing his skills) for us to know what
could have been. I don't agree with saying that he "never would have
been" at the level of Mack or Griffey, ya just don't know. Many players,
including Mack, have improved over the years with off-season training and
task specialization. Who's to say what a talent like Bo could have done
in either football or baseball if he devoted all his time to one and not
gotten hurt? You just can't type up some numbers into an equation and
determine how good or bad a player would have been, IMO. Oh yeah, he had
a great arm too...


David Marc Nieporent

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

In <357FEF...@baseball1.com>, Sean Lahman <se...@baseball1.com> claimed:

>Dan Holmes wrote:
>> ekau...@usd.edu says...

>> > Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
>> > '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
>> > Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?

He'd be 35 now; I doubt it.

>> No. Bo Jackson was a great athlete who had two decent ML seasons. He
>> didn't have the skill IMO to hit hit 60+ homers. I think you
>> overstate his baseball ability a little.

>More than a little, if he's putting him in the same neighborhood as


>Griffey and McGwire. Consider each players top-five HR totals:
>Griffey: 56 49 45 40 27
>McGwire: 58 52 49 42 39
>Jackson: 32 28 25 22 16
>But hey, they all have seven letters in their last name.

Come on, Sean. The likelihood of Jackson producing, post-hip, was very
low, but you're comparing pre-inflated offense numbers with Jackson to
post-inflated offense numbers with Griffey-McGwire.
--
David M. Nieporent "Mr. Simpson, don't you worry. I
niep...@alumni.princeton.edu watched Matlock in a bar last night.
2L - St. John's School of Law The sound wasn't on, but I think I
Roberto Petagine Appreciation Society got the gist of it." -- L. Hutz

Greg Spira

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Lord knows I hate the word tools, but when you're dealing with football
players who haven't played much baseball, I think its clear that the
progression of tools to skills is abnormal, and thus a projection system
based on how other players progress is not of much use. Personally, I
think Jackson would've kept improving fora few more years and had a great
career, much better than say, Pete Icaviglia's. On the other hand, I
don't think there's any reason to think he would've become what McGwire
has become, cause no one does that.

Greg

Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to


Space Coon wrote:

> On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Sean Lahman wrote:
>

> These projections only mean something if your playing
> video-game baseball, because only human beings actually
> play the games. Not computers.
>

> Later,
> E

You asked our opinion. It sounds like you will not accept it.


PHSpiegel2

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Sandalio Gonzalez <sgon...@osf1.gmu.edu> wrote:

On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Sean Lahman wrote:

>Bo was a great athlete that excelled in two sports without
>possibly being able to devote enough attention to either one in the
>offseason (training, preparing, honing his skills) for us to know what
>could have been. I don't agree with saying that he "never would have
>been" at the level of Mack or Griffey, ya just don't know. Many players,
>including Mack, have improved over the years with off-season training and
>task specialization. Who's to say what a talent like Bo could have done
>in either football or baseball if he devoted all his time to one and not
>gotten hurt?

Ah! Now I get it! It's the Ty Cobb argument. Bo Jackson could have broken Roger
Maris's HR record if he had wanted to...

- Peter (phspi...@aol.com)

Lurker Below

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

>Sandalio Gonzalez <sgon...@osf1.gmu.edu> wrote:

And kicked his ass along the way...

David Marc Nieporent

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

In <358033...@baseball1.com>, Sean Lahman <se...@baseball1.com> claimed:

>But Jackson was also five years older than McGwire, so his 87-90 stats
>reflected his prime, while McGwire was still maturing physically. A
>better way to compare is by age.

Even better is to get their birthdates right first.

McGwire was born 10/1/63
Bo was born 11/30/62.

C. R. Burrell

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Space Coon wrote in message ...


|On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Sean Lahman wrote:
|

Y'see, you mistake "predictions" with guarantees. Of course no one can
know the future. But you can come up with the best predictions
possible, in baseball through the intelligent use of statistics
(together with everything else you can find out). You point about
Ripken, Brett and Schmidt totally overlooks the point of Brock
projection--as a group, players grow and decline in their skill level
(if not actual performance) at a predictable rate. This does not mean
that they all have the same skill level, however. An all-time great
player, whose peak was extremely high, could put up All-Star seasons
well into his later years, even though his skill level, and indeed
performance, had decline from its peak.

Russ Burrell

C. R. Burrell

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Phil Lecuyer wrote in message <1p7B919r1e64$8...@bigrig.devens.net>...


|how can you state that? bo proved he could excel at ANY sport he
played.
|noone said he'd be MVP, just that he could hit alot of homeruns if he
had
|stuck to the game......

Why didn't he do it while he was playing? How many times did he lead
his league in HR?

|wasn't bo an all-star? last i knew, you had to be a decent player to
play
|in that game......then again, maybe i'm overstating the importance of
the
|all-star game.....

No. You have to be a high vote getter. That is not, IMO, the same
thing

David Grabiner

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to

Space Coon <ekau...@usd.edu> writes:

> These projections are fine, but this number-crunching engine
> is not Bo Jackson. The art of baseball is swamped in statistics,
> a concept better used to measure current performance, not
> future possibilities. Whatever fomula this projection used
> is entirely skepticism, as nobody can determine what any
> one man can do at any given time. I have my doubts that running
> Cecil Fielder's numbers through the template in 1989 would
> project him to hit 50 homeruns in 1990. How about Brady
> Anderson just a few years back? I'll laugh in the face
> of anyone who says they knew that was coming.

The purpose of any projection system is to produce an expectation, not a
specific prediction. It cannot predict who will get hurt or who will
have a fluke year, but it can predict a reasonable career continuation.
If the projection says that a young star will get 2983 hits, that
idenitfies him as a legitimate 3000-hit candidate. If it says that he
will get 2164 hits, he'll have to show unusual development or durability
to get 3000.

> Yes, Jackson was older than McGwire when he broke into the majors,
> and age does tend to slow an athlete down. But even this assumption
> can be tossed out.

You don't "toss out" an assumption because it isn't perfect in
predictions. It was mostly sunny Tuesday morning, but it rained in the
evening; should I start carrying my umbrella every sunny morning this
summer?

> Nolan Ryan was throwing no-hitters in his
> forties. Satchel Paige was most likely far older than that
> when he won rookie of the year, and he continued to put
> up great numbers for several years after that.

Pitchers are less predictable than hitters, but you still have to
average out Ryan against all the young pitching stars who came up with
sore arms at age 25. The big names are more likely to have held onto
their ability longer, because they became big names as a result of
putting up impressive career totals. (And even here, you still have
Sandy Koufax, who was great from ages 26 to 30 but could no longer
pitch.)

> Some
> others? Cal Ripken, George Brett, and Mike Schmidt all put
> up All-Star numbers at ages considered past their prime.

And here you fail to understand your own point. It is possible for
great players to put up all-star numbers while declining. Brett was 27
in his best year, and had only one year after age 30 as good as his six
great years at ages 23-30. (As a 1B/DH in 1988 and 1990, he was not as
good as the good defensive 3B who put up similar numbers every year in
1976-1979.) Ripken's three best years were at 30, 22, and 23, which is
an odd pattern but not a couterexample to aging.

I'll grant that Schmidt doesn't fit the pattern. He maintained his
level of play with excellent consistency from ages 24 to 37 (peaking at
30-31, which is a little late, and then slipping defensively after 34),
but when he did decline from age 37 to age 38, he fell off a cliff.

Ther eis also the problem that a player's statistics do not actually
track his abilities, and that has nothing to do with the human side of
things. You wrote:

> These projections only mean something if your playing
> video-game baseball, because only human beings actually
> play the games. Not computers.

Try keeping stats from computer baseball sometime; you'll find that they
are almost as inconsistent as real players' stats. If the computer is
programmed to make a particular hitter hit .300, it either must allow
him to hit .260 or .340 in occasional seasons, or else distort the
statistics badly so that if he happens to be hitting .333 with one month
to go, he will be expected to hit .200 in that last month (which doesn't
happen to humans).

--
David Grabiner, grab...@math.lsa.umich.edu
http://www.math.lsa.umich.edu/~grabiner
Shop at the Mobius Strip Mall: Always on the same side of the street!
Klein Glassworks, Torus Coffee and Donuts, Projective Airlines, etc.

Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 11, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/11/98
to


Space Coon wrote:

> On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Dan Holmes wrote:
>
> > In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980610154950.6116A-100000@sunburst>,

> > ekau...@usd.edu says...
> > >
> > > Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
> > > '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
> > > Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?

In my opinion and a player I know who played against him in an exhibition
game he was the greatest athlete to ever play baseball. I really don't think
he would have challenged the record. He may have put up some 40hr years. He
was so great at football and he played both sports. He was so undisciplined
at the plate. It almost looked like all he knew about hitting was to grab a
bat and swing. I do think that if he had concentrated only on baseball, had
seeked help with a top hitting coach every offseason- maybe an aging
Williams, and fully devoted himself to learning the mental game of hitting-Ty
Cobb style, that he would have put some numbers up that would stand alone.
However it is silly to think this because he showed no inclination to do this
and this is also more than 99% of major leaguers do.

> I once heard a sportswriter make a comment about he hardest
> he ever "heard" a baseball being hit, making reference to
> the sound a baseball makes when it is absolutly "drilled".

> He had three examples. He heard the sound when Babe Ruth


> smacked a home run, he heard it again when he happen
> to see Josh Gibson play in a negro league game. He said
> he never heard the sound again until he saw Jackson hit
> a home run out of Kauffman Stadium.

I heard a similiar quote from Ted Williams? that when Foxx hit them they
sounded like cherrybombs and the only other time he heard that sound was from
Mantle and Bo.


ches...@feist.com

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980610154950.6116A-100000@sunburst>,

Space Coon <ekau...@usd.edu> wrote:
>
> When Bo Jackson's injury removed him from baseball and
> football, it seems to me that he was fast becoming one
> of the greatest all-round players in the game. Both
> his home run totals and batting average rose every
> consecutive year he played before the "big" injury.
>
> With all the talk about Big Mac's colossal home runs
> this year, I was wondering how you all thought Bo
> Jackson would be doing if he had remained healthy
> during his career. I remember him being one of the
> premier long-home run hitters in his first few years
> in the majors (remember that 500 ft+ blast to dead
> center in the All-Star game?). He had a pretty good
> glove, which was also improving at the time.
>
> Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
> '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
> Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?
>

Bo was fun to watch and was definitely a fan favorite in K.C. But he was
always more of a football player than a baseball player. Look at his
on-base-percentage. He would never have challenged McGwire.

Jerry Weaver

-----== Posted via Deja News, The Leader in Internet Discussion ==-----
http://www.dejanews.com/ Now offering spam-free web-based newsreading

ches...@feist.com

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980611153455.17854A-100000@sunburst>,
> These projections are fine, but this number-crunching engine
> is not Bo Jackson. The art of baseball is swamped in statistics,
> a concept better used to measure current performance, not
> future possibilities. Whatever fomula this projection used
> is entirely skepticism, as nobody can determine what any
> one man can do at any given time. I have my doubts that running
> Cecil Fielder's numbers through the template in 1989 would
> project him to hit 50 homeruns in 1990.

Actually Cecil's power was predictable. In 1987 he hit 14 homers in only 175
AB's, for an 8% homer rate. In 1990-1992, after his return from Japan. he hit
130 homers in 1791 AB's, which is a little less than 7.3%. His power was,
therefore, quite predictable.

Rob McLean

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to


Sean Lahman wrote:

> I ran the Brock projection based on his play before the injury. The top
> of the chart shows his actual stats (1986-1990). The bottom shows what
> Brock projects.
>
> Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
> 1986 25 25 82 9 17 2 1 2 9 7 .207
> 1987 26 116 396 46 93 17 2 22 53 30 .235
> 1988 27 124 439 63 108 16 4 25 68 25 .246
> 1989 28 135 515 86 132 15 6 32 105 39 .256
> 1990 29 111 405 74 110 16 1 28 78 44 .272
> ------------------------------------------------
> 1991 30 133 505 69 121 16 3 28 81 46 .239
> 1992 31 133 484 69 120 17 2 27 78 48 .249
> 1993 32 140 512 66 124 17 2 25 78 49 .242
> 1994 33 73 240 30 57 8 1 11 34 26 .237
> 1995 34 43 124 16 29 4 0 5 17 20 .232
> 1996 35 19 43 5 10 1 0 1 6 5 .233
> Tot 1052 3746 532 921 128 23 206 606 339 .246

Hm. The floor comes up on him quick, eh? But that's what happens when
you're a .240 hitter in your thirties...

> The most similar player to that would be Pete Incaviglia (.247/206
> HRs). Others would include Ron Gant (.258/223 HRs thru 1997), Kevin
> McReynolds (.265/211 HRs), Dave Henderson (.258/197 HRs).

I don't know. I get the feeling Bo would've had a longer career than
projected, because of his speed, his power, and the fact he was *Bo
Jackson*. Has anyone ever come to a ballgame to see Ron Gant? Or say, "I saw
Kevin McReynolds hit a ball that..."

--RMc

David Marc Nieporent

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In <3580AF94...@nac.net>, Rob McLean <ro...@nac.net> claimed:
>Sean Lahman wrote:

Well, Bo _would_ have had a longer career than that, because Brock doesn't
know that in 1993, offensive levels went way up. He probably hits 260/33
in 1993, instead of 240/25. That adds up. He'd have been a regular for a
few extra years, and probably finish with 250 HRs instead.

David Andrew Leonardo Marasco

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <3580409C...@wam.umd.edu>,

Jason Kassa <jas...@wam.umd.edu> wrote:
>
>
>Space Coon wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Dan Holmes wrote:
>>
>> > In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980610154950.6116A-100000@sunburst>,
>> > ekau...@usd.edu says...
>> > >
>> > > Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
>> > > '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
>> > > Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?
>
>In my opinion and a player I know who played against him in an exhibition
>game he was the greatest athlete to ever play baseball. I really don't think

And Jim Thorpe would have hit how many home runs?

David Marasco mar...@nwu.edu http://pubweb.nwu.edu/~dmarasco
"An object at rest cannot be stopped." - The Tick

NawrockiT

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In <3580AF94...@nac.net>, Rob McLean <ro...@nac.net> claimed:
>Sean Lahman wrote:

>> I ran the Brock projection based on his play before the injury. The top
>> of the chart shows his actual stats (1986-1990). The bottom shows what
>> Brock projects.

>> Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
>> 1986 25 25 82 9 17 2 1 2 9 7 .207
>> 1987 26 116 396 46 93 17 2 22 53 30 .235
>> 1988 27 124 439 63 108 16 4 25 68 25 .246
>> 1989 28 135 515 86 132 15 6 32 105 39 .256
>> 1990 29 111 405 74 110 16 1 28 78 44 .272
>> ------------------------------------------------
>> 1991 30 133 505 69 121 16 3 28 81 46 .239
>> 1992 31 133 484 69 120 17 2 27 78 48 .249
>> 1993 32 140 512 66 124 17 2 25 78 49 .242
>> 1994 33 73 240 30 57 8 1 11 34 26 .237
>> 1995 34 43 124 16 29 4 0 5 17 20 .232
>> 1996 35 19 43 5 10 1 0 1 6 5 .233
>> Tot 1052 3746 532 921 128 23 206 606 339 .246

According to what I've seen and what Dave Nieporent posted, Bo was born on
11/30/63, which makes him 23 in 1986, not 25. Thus, he was only 27 after the
injury in 1990.

Those two years probably would have meant quite a difference in his
development, wouldn't they?

Tom Nawrocki

CrafRusO

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

DM>In article <3580409C...@wam.umd.edu>,
DM>Jason Kassa <jas...@wam.umd.edu> wrote:
DM>>
DM>>
DM>>Space Coon wrote:
DM>>
DM>>> On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Dan Holmes wrote:
DM>>>
DM>>> > In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980610154950.6116A-100000@sunburst>,
DM>>> > ekau...@usd.edu says...
DM>>> > >
DM>>> > > Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
DM>>> > > '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
DM>>> > > Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?
DM>>
DM>>In my opinion and a player I know who played against him in an exhibition
DM>>game he was the greatest athlete to ever play baseball. I really don't thin

DM>And Jim Thorpe would have hit how many home runs?

DM>David Marasco mar...@nwu.edu http://pubweb.nwu.edu/~dmarasco
DM>"An object at rest cannot be stopped." - The Tick

Ty Cobb could've broken all of Thorpe's records and won the decathalon
if he'd have wanted to...

Russ Craft
--
This message comes from NaSCOM, the official internet server of NaSPA, THE
Network and System Professionals Assocation, with over 40,000 members in 72
countries. Contact http://www.naspa.net for free trial membership or
X116 or fax (414) 768-8001 or (414) 768-8000 x116 voice.

James Weisberg

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <199806112144...@ladder03.news.aol.com>,

PHSpiegel2 <phspi...@aol.com> wrote:
>Sandalio Gonzalez <sgon...@osf1.gmu.edu> wrote:
>On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Sean Lahman wrote:
>>Bo was a great athlete that excelled in two sports without
>>possibly being able to devote enough attention to either one in the
>>offseason (training, preparing, honing his skills) for us to know what
>>could have been. I don't agree with saying that he "never would have
>>been" at the level of Mack or Griffey, ya just don't know. Many players,
>>including Mack, have improved over the years with off-season training and
>>task specialization. Who's to say what a talent like Bo could have done
>>in either football or baseball if he devoted all his time to one and not
>>gotten hurt?
>
>Ah! Now I get it! It's the Ty Cobb argument. Bo Jackson could have broken
>Roger Maris's HR record if he had wanted to...

Bo Jackson didn't hit baseballs with a split-grip.


--
World's Greatest Living Poster

James Weisberg

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <897659...@NaSPA.Net>, CrafRusO <craf...@NaSPA.Net> wrote:
>>David Marasco mar...@nwu.edu http://pubweb.nwu.edu/~dmarasco
>>And Jim Thorpe would have hit how many home runs?
>
>Ty Cobb could've broken all of Thorpe's records and won the decathalon
>if he'd have wanted to...

I think Cobb could have been an Olympic runner, sure. But
Thorpe was faster. On the other hand, Thorpe wasn't much of a
ballplayer.

Personally, I still think Jackie Robinson was the best
all-round athlete to ever take a field. And he could play a
mean game of ping-pong too!

Sean Lahman

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

David Marc Nieporent wrote:
>
> Sean Lahman <se...@baseball1.com> claimed:

> >Consider each players top-five HR totals:
> >Griffey: 56 49 45 40 27
> >McGwire: 58 52 49 42 39
> >Jackson: 32 28 25 22 16
>
> Come on, Sean. The likelihood of Jackson producing, post-hip, was
> very low, but you're comparing pre-inflated offense numbers with
> Jackson to post-inflated offense numbers with Griffey-McGwire.

The original question was whether he'd be doing what McGwire is _absent_
the hip injury. My opinion was Jackson wouldn't have made much of a
bang even if he didn't need to have his hip replaced.

If it makes you feel better, here are some normalized stats comparing
the three.

Best ABR
Griffey: 58 57 44 43 42
McGwire: 70 53 51 50 35
Jackson: 21 14 4 2 1

Best TPR
Griffey: 6.4 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.2
McGwire: 5.1 3.7 3.3 3.1 1.9
Jackson: 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.1 -0.1

Best APRO
Griffey: 170 168 166 156 153
McGwire: 231 201 200 185 180
Jackson: 142 125 115 108 108

If Jackson's in the same class as those guys, I sure don't see it.
Since we're talking about HR ability. maybe the best comparison is to
the league leader each year. First, here are the raw numbers.

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

NL Lead: 37 49 39 47 40 38 35 46 43 40 47 49
AL Lead: 40 49 42 36 51 44 43 46 40 50 52 56
Griffey: - - - 16 22 22 27 45 40 17 49 56
McGwire: 3 49 32 33 39 22 42 9 9 39 52 58
Jackson: 2 22 25 32 28 3 - 16 13

Then we'll convert them to a percentage (player's HR/AL leader's HR) as
a rough guide to how well the player did compared to his peers.

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Griffey - - - 44 43 50 63 98 100 34 94 100
McGwire 8 100 76 92 76 50 98 20 23 78 100 104
Jackson: 5 45 60 89 55 7 35 33 - - - -

And if we look at each guy's best five, that'd be:

Griffey: 100 100 98 94 63
McGwire: 104 100 100 92 78
Jackson: 89 60 55 45 35

Only once was Jackson even close to leading the league in homers, while
Griffey and McGwire have each been #1 or #2 four times.

The original question was whether Jackson might have ended up where
McGwire is now (poised to hit 60+ homeruns), and I just don't see
_anything_ that remotely suggests that would have happened.

I'd be pleased to see any data that you think supports that theory, DMN.

Sean Lahman

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

NawrockiT wrote:
> According to what I've seen and what Dave Nieporent posted, Bo was
> born on 11/30/63, which makes him 23 in 1986, not 25. Thus, he was
> only 27 after the injury in 1990.

It's 11/30/62 (David was right). That makes him 23 on July 1,1986 ,
which is the date we generally use to determine the player's season-age.

> Those two years probably would have meant quite a difference in his
> development, wouldn't they?

Here's the projection again, with the right birthday.

Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG

1986 23 25 82 9 17 2 1 2 9 7 .207
1987 24 116 396 46 93 17 2 22 53 30 .235
1988 25 124 439 63 108 16 4 25 68 25 .246
1989 26 135 515 86 132 15 6 32 105 39 .256
1990 27 111 405 74 110 16 1 28 78 44 .272
--------------------------------------------------
1991 28 133 491 76 122 16 3 35 93 40 .248
1992 29 137 495 79 122 17 2 38 98 47 .247
1993 30 141 523 80 131 18 2 36 98 47 .250
1994 31 144 516 75 127 17 2 35 94 48 .246
1995 32 146 524 68 124 17 2 32 88 48 .236
1996 33 77 251 31 58 8 1 14 40 25 .233
1997 34 45 128 17 30 4 0 7 20 20 .233
1998 35 20 45 5 10 1 0 2 6 5 .200
Tot 1356 4809 709 1184 164 27 308 852 424 .246

That's abot 100 more HRs than I erroneously projected yesterday. If we
prorate 94/95 for the strike, he loses about 9 HRs. For the sake of
discussion, let's call it an even 300. That puts him roughly in the
company of guys like Jim Wynn (.250/291 HRs) and Darryl Strawberry
(.259/308 through 1997), maybe even Tom Brunansky (.245/271 HRs) or
Bobby Bonds (.268/332 HRs). Better company for sure, but still nowhere
near the Hall of Fame.

Michael David Jones

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

craf...@NaSPA.Net (CrafRusO) writes:
>DM>In article <3580409C...@wam.umd.edu>,
>DM>Jason Kassa <jas...@wam.umd.edu> wrote:
>DM>>Space Coon wrote:

>DM>>> On Thu, 11 Jun 1998, Dan Holmes wrote:
>DM>>> > In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980610154950.6116A-100000@sunburst>,
>DM>>> > ekau...@usd.edu says...
>DM>>> > > Had he remained in the league, is it possible that
>DM>>> > > '98 could have been the year that Griffey, McGwire, *and*
>DM>>> > > Jackson made a three-way run for the Maris record?
>DM>>In my opinion and a player I know who played against him in an exhibition
>DM>>game he was the greatest athlete to ever play baseball. I really don't thin
>DM>And Jim Thorpe would have hit how many home runs?

>Ty Cobb could've broken all of Thorpe's records and won the decathalon
>if he'd have wanted to...

Yeah, but did Cobb have a higher IQ than Lurker? That's the question.

Mike Jones | jon...@rpi.edu

The Lisa had problems, but it was a terrific piece of engineering
that still puts the Macintosh to shame.
- Robert X. Cringely, InfoWorld

Sean Lahman

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

James Weisberg wrote:
> I think Cobb could have been an Olympic runner, sure. But
> Thorpe was faster. On the other hand, Thorpe wasn't much of a
> ballplayer.
>
> Personally, I still think Jackie Robinson was the best
> all-round athlete to ever take a field. And he could play a
> mean game of ping-pong too!

Getting back to Bo Jackson, it's clear to me that he was a much better
running back than he was an outfielder. Of the recent two-sport
players, Jackson's really the only one who didn't opt for the sport at
which he performed the best. Deion Sanders is clearly a better football
player, and I think Brian Jordan is better at baseball.

DJ Dozier wasn't particularly good at either.

Thomas R Scudder

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

Sean Lahman (se...@baseball1.com) asieoniezi:
: Getting back to Bo Jackson, it's clear to me that he was a much better

: running back than he was an outfielder. Of the recent two-sport
: players, Jackson's really the only one who didn't opt for the sport at
: which he performed the best. Deion Sanders is clearly a better football
: player, and I think Brian Jordan is better at baseball.

: DJ Dozier wasn't particularly good at either.

And Danny Ainge was apparently better at basketball than baseball.

Chris Kahrl

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <MPG.fea183e7...@news.panix.com>,

Of course, the comparison to Inky becomes more apt when talking about their
defensive skills, even before the injury.

It might be a good point to mention that Bo owes a considerable debt to
Herm Schneider, the Sox' trainer, for the extent to which he came back at
all. Schneider deserves a big chunk of credit for Bo's comeback, or the
speed with which Ozzie Guillen, Robin Ventura, or Jason Bere have
recuperated from their injuries. That isn't to say he's a miracle worker:
he didn't make Guillen, Bo, or Bere any good, but he did put them in
working order much faster than most PT or medical personnel thought
possible.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"In the loamy fields nestled in a valley born of the wild charge and the
bitter retreat of the glaciers, and perfected by the tireless work of the
Snake River, generation after generation of potatoes lay waiting, certain
in the knowledge of *their* manifest destiny: men would come. Men *would*
come. And they would conquer the land with fire, sword, and sour cream." --
James Michener, _Idaho_
Chris Kahrl, Author, _Baseball_Prospectus_1998_, from Brassey's Publishing.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com

CrafRusO

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

SE>James Weisberg wrote:
SE>> I think Cobb could have been an Olympic runner, sure. But
SE>> Thorpe was faster. On the other hand, Thorpe wasn't much of a
SE>> ballplayer.
SE>>
SE>> Personally, I still think Jackie Robinson was the best
SE>> all-round athlete to ever take a field. And he could play a
SE>> mean game of ping-pong too!

SE>Getting back to Bo Jackson, it's clear to me that he was a much better
SE>running back than he was an outfielder. Of the recent two-sport
SE>players, Jackson's really the only one who didn't opt for the sport at
SE>which he performed the best. Deion Sanders is clearly a better football
SE>player, and I think Brian Jordan is better at baseball.

SE>DJ Dozier wasn't particularly good at either.
SE>--
SE> Sean Lahman / se...@baseball1.com
SE> The Baseball Archive - http://www.baseball1.com

IMO, Kirk Gibson would have been better in football. But he was a hell
of a player in either sport.

Nelson Lu

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <35814E...@baseball1.com>,
Sean Lahman <se...@baseball1.com> wrote:

>Getting back to Bo Jackson, it's clear to me that he was a much better

>running back than he was an outfielder. Of the recent two-sport

>players, Jackson's really the only one who didn't opt for the sport at

>which he performed the best. Deion Sanders is clearly a better football

>player, and I think Brian Jordan is better at baseball.

Yeah, but would Tom Glavine or Kirk McCaskill have been better at hockey had
they *really* wanted to? :-)

===============================================================================
GO ANAHEIM ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (n...@cs.stanford.edu)

Space Coon

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

I've got such a crappy newsreader that I can barely keep
up with this interesting discussion. I'll just have to
address the facts as I remembered reading them off dejanews
a few minutes ago.

First, a little defence on the disregard I hold for the
"Brock" projection system. Defending my position that Bo
would have put up better numbers than the projection
shown is not "disregarding your opinion". I asked for it,
and got it, and was progressing to discuss/argue it with
anyone that I could discuss it with on my mediocre newsreader.
Just because I disagree with the opinion I asked you for
doesn't mean I'm an asshole :).

I find it hard to believe that anyone that saw Bo play didn't
think they were seeing something special. Arguably, he played
a better game of football, but he arguably loved baseball
more. I remember reading something like "football is only
my girlfriend, baseball is my wife" in Bo Knows Bo. As
athletes go, it stands to reason that they will excel easier
and faster at simpler sports. Bo was still learning the
game of baseball, as most players do throughout their lives.

Two sport athletes are unusual to me. I liked Eric Lindros
right away when he was going to play for the Blue Jays.
Of course, I loved Bo. I know this isn't going to go
over all that well here, either, but I have to say that
Cobb was not even *close* to the athlete Jim Thorpe was.
I just had to say it.

I'll probably leave this thread alone after this (you can
stop cheering now :) ), so I have just one final question.
Does anyone know where I can find a copy of "Green Fields
of the Mind" by Bartlett Giamotti (sp?), and any other
baseball related poetry? Thanks again all! Keep up the good
discussion!

And just to irk ya all a little, Bo Jackson wouldn't have
made a run for the Maris record. He'd have made a run for
the Joe Bauman record. Maris record? Why bother?

Later on,
E

Bud Selig ---------> OUT
Kirby Pucket -------> IN


a p.s. to all RSBers-- It's great to have a place to put these
questions forth. I see all kinds of opinions most of my every-day
friends just can't whip up. People around here know their
stuff, and that makes it fun.

"He started heading for the motorway." |
The Pixies |
|
MST3K Tape Trading! --> http://www.usd.edu/~ekaufman |
--------------------------------------------------------*


James Weisberg

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <Pine.SOL.3.94.980612115520.29715A-100000@sunburst>,

Space Coon <ekau...@usd.edu> wrote:
>I know this isn't going to go
>over all that well here, either, but I have to say that
>Cobb was not even *close* to the athlete Jim Thorpe was.
>I just had to say it.

How do you arrive at that conclusion? I don't mind if
you say that if you indeed are really evaluating the athletic
skill of both men. Have you done that?
I mean, Cobb did play other sports at times, but he didn't
do it professionally. He played some scrimmage games against
some college football teams, and ran rings around them. He
drove race cars. He played golf reasonably well. He was an
expert hunter/fisherman, if that means anything to you.
Primarily, he played and studied the game of baseball.
But the man was a terrific athlete in his prime. Had he
concentrated on other sports, there's absolutely no reason
he couldn't have excelled in them as well. Cobb was basically
the same size/shape as Jim Thorpe. And Thorpe didn't even
work very hard to keep himself in shape at times. Historically,
I guess Thorpe goes down as a superior athlete, but there's
no way I would claim it wasn't even close.

Dan Holmes

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

In article <35802E...@baseball1.com>, se...@baseball1.com says...

> Rob McLean wrote:
> >
> > Can someone do a Brock5 on Bo and seem if he
> > would've had HOF numbers?
>
> Sure, but bear in mind that Bo Jackson was already 26 when he played his
> first full season, and played only four seasons before his injury.
>
> I ran the Brock projection based on his play before the injury. The top
> of the chart shows his actual stats (1986-1990). The bottom shows what
> Brock projects.
>
> Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
> 1986 25 25 82 9 17 2 1 2 9 7 .207
> 1987 26 116 396 46 93 17 2 22 53 30 .235
> 1988 27 124 439 63 108 16 4 25 68 25 .246
> 1989 28 135 515 86 132 15 6 32 105 39 .256
> 1990 29 111 405 74 110 16 1 28 78 44 .272
> ------------------------------------------------
> 1991 30 133 505 69 121 16 3 28 81 46 .239
> 1992 31 133 484 69 120 17 2 27 78 48 .249
> 1993 32 140 512 66 124 17 2 25 78 49 .242
> 1994 33 73 240 30 57 8 1 11 34 26 .237
> 1995 34 43 124 16 29 4 0 5 17 20 .232
> 1996 35 19 43 5 10 1 0 1 6 5 .233
> Tot 1052 3746 532 921 128 23 206 606 339 .246
>
> The most similar player to that would be Pete Incaviglia (.247/206
> HRs). Others would include Ron Gant (.258/223 HRs thru 1997), Kevin
> McReynolds (.265/211 HRs), Dave Henderson (.258/197 HRs).
>
> --
> Sean Lahman / se...@baseball1.com
> The Baseball Archive - http://www.baseball1.com
>
Inky, Gant, McReynolds, Henderson, those are the type of players you can
compare Bo to...not Rager Maris, Mark McGwire, or Babe Ruth.

Dan Holmes

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

>
> > I once heard a sportswriter make a comment about he hardest
> > he ever "heard" a baseball being hit, making reference to
> > the sound a baseball makes when it is absolutly "drilled".
> > He had three examples. He heard the sound when Babe Ruth
> > smacked a home run, he heard it again when he happen
> > to see Josh Gibson play in a negro league game. He said
> > he never heard the sound again until he saw Jackson hit
> > a home run out of Kauffman Stadium.
>
> I heard a similiar quote from Ted Williams? that when Foxx hit them they
> sounded like cherrybombs and the only other time he heard that sound was from
> Mantle and Bo.
>
>
interesting...but more a testament to selective memory than anything
else.

maybe this thread can splinter off into this nostalgic bend...

BTW, the loudest crack I ever heard was off the bat of Willie Horton, man
he had some strength. I remember he once broke his bat on a checked
swing!! Any others have similar memories to share?

Rob McLean

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to


James Weisberg wrote:

Gordie Howe was apparently a pretty decent baseball prospect; he
played one summer for the semi-pro Saskatoon Gems before the Red Wings
put a stop to it. My dad says he remembers Howe hitting batting-practice
home runs in Tiger Stadium in the 1950s...

--RMc

Rob McLean

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to


CrafRusO wrote:

> SE>James Weisberg wrote:
> SE>> I think Cobb could have been an Olympic runner, sure. But
> SE>> Thorpe was faster. On the other hand, Thorpe wasn't much of a
> SE>> ballplayer.
> SE>>
> SE>> Personally, I still think Jackie Robinson was the best
> SE>> all-round athlete to ever take a field. And he could play a
> SE>> mean game of ping-pong too!
>
> SE>Getting back to Bo Jackson, it's clear to me that he was a much better
> SE>running back than he was an outfielder. Of the recent two-sport
> SE>players, Jackson's really the only one who didn't opt for the sport at
> SE>which he performed the best. Deion Sanders is clearly a better football
> SE>player, and I think Brian Jordan is better at baseball.
>
> SE>DJ Dozier wasn't particularly good at either.
> SE>--
> SE> Sean Lahman / se...@baseball1.com
> SE> The Baseball Archive - http://www.baseball1.com
>
> IMO, Kirk Gibson would have been better in football. But he was a hell
> of a player in either sport.

Oh no, you don't! I'm glad I didn't pick up the Detroit Free Press in
October 1984 to read:

"PADRES COMPLETE SWEEP IN SERIES; Gibson's TD catch wins it for Lions,
21-14"...


--RMc


Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to


Chris Kahrl wrote:

> Of course, the comparison to Inky becomes more apt when talking about their
> defensive skills, even before the injury.

Do you have anything to back this up? Bo could jog faster than Inky sprints, and
had the arm of a cannon. Even if he he was forced to wear 50lb ankle weights I
would think that he would still be better.


JMcMar1

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

Dan Holmes wrote:

>BTW, the loudest crack I ever heard was off the bat of Willie Horton, >man he
had some strength. I remember he once broke his bat on a >checked swing!! Any
others have similar memories to share?

I saw Mantle, batting left-handed, hit a ball into the air and then flip his
bat in disgust as if he had popped out. The ball landed in the right field
bleachers at Yankee Stadium, at least 407 feet from home plate if my memory is
any good.

BTW, the only two hitters I have seen who have the power to consistently hit
deep home runs on balls that they do NOT hit cleanly are Mantle and Piazza. I
imagine McGwire has the power to do this also, but I have not seen it.
Jim McMartin

Sean Lahman

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

Dan Holmes wrote:
> BTW, the loudest crack I ever heard was off the bat of Willie Horton,
> man he had some strength. I remember he once broke his bat on a
> checked swing!! Any others have similar memories to share?

Bo Jackson did the same thing. Glen Braggs swunh and missed at a pitch
in the 1990 World Series and the bat broke against his back on the
follow through.

Lots of guys have broken their bat over their knee.

--
Sean Lahman / se...@baseball1.com

Michael David Jones

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

Sean Lahman <se...@baseball1.com> writes:
>Dan Holmes wrote:
>> BTW, the loudest crack I ever heard was off the bat of Willie Horton,
>> man he had some strength. I remember he once broke his bat on a
>> checked swing!! Any others have similar memories to share?
>Bo Jackson did the same thing. Glen Braggs swunh and missed at a pitch
>in the 1990 World Series and the bat broke against his back on the
>follow through.
>Lots of guys have broken their bat over their knee.

I once saw Jim Rice just grab the ends of his bat and snap it in half
after striking out. Not over his knee, just *snap* in midair.

Mike Jones | jon...@rpi.edu

Each program has an appropriate level of care and sophistication
dependent on the uses to which it will be put.
- Gerald Weinberg, The Psychology of Computer Programming

Mike Harmon

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

On 12 Jun 1998 20:01:09 GMT, JMcMar1 <jmc...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>BTW, the only two hitters I have seen who have the power to consistently hit
>deep home runs on balls that they do NOT hit cleanly are Mantle and Piazza. I
>imagine McGwire has the power to do this also, but I have not seen it.

I've never seen it in person, but about half of his HR's that make
the highlights look to me like they should be pop-ups to shallow
center. It looks like he just hit it a mile high, and then it lands
in the upper deck.

--
Look, Maw, I done made me one of them thar' .sig file thingies!
Temporary addresses: | Permanent addresses:
rx7...@concentric.net | mikeh...@usa.net
http://www.concentric.net/~rx7guy | http://www.HCLabs.com -- soon!

Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to


JMcMar1 wrote:

> Dan Holmes wrote:
>
> >BTW, the loudest crack I ever heard was off the bat of Willie Horton, >man he
> had some strength. I remember he once broke his bat on a >checked swing!! Any
> others have similar memories to share?
>

> I saw Mantle, batting left-handed, hit a ball into the air and then flip his
> bat in disgust as if he had popped out. The ball landed in the right field
> bleachers at Yankee Stadium, at least 407 feet from home plate if my memory is
> any good.
>

> BTW, the only two hitters I have seen who have the power to consistently hit
> deep home runs on balls that they do NOT hit cleanly are Mantle and Piazza. I
> imagine McGwire has the power to do this also, but I have not seen it.

> Jim McMartin

I have seen Frank Thomas do this. He kind of swatted at the ball and hit the end of
his bat. I have seen Cecil Fielder hit one out on a half swing but that was down
the right field line at Tiger Stadium, certainly not 400 ft.


Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

Please look at these statistics and rank each season from best to worst with
explanations. Use any method that you would like. Rc/25, ops, whatever you want.
The following are fictional statistics of fictional player Jay Casat. After Casat's
third season with his dismal team, the the manager decided to be the hitting coach
as well and fired the old hitting coach along with cutting some players. Believing
that his job security depended on doing what his coach said, Casat faithfully
changed his style.

Year Pa AB BB H 1B 2B 3B HR K
1 567 491 76 126 64 35 2 25 125
2 567 498 69 145 97 27 2 19 78
3 567 495 72 138 80 34 2 22 99
4 567 501 66 156 107 31 2 16 50
5 567 503 64 160 110 33 2 15 38
6 567 505 62 166 116 35 2 13 25

Sadly, Casat suffered a fictional injury and never played again.


Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

Terry May

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

Re: "Home Runs: Mark McGwire vs. Bo Jackson", tom...@umich.edu pitched the
following on 12 Jun 98 @ 16:21:51:

t> : DJ Dozier wasn't particularly good at either.
t>
t> And Danny Ainge was apparently better at basketball than
t> baseball.

And John Elway was slightly better at football than baseball.

... Atlanta Braves - Six straight division titles!
--

Terry May - Las Vegas, NV

Terry May

unread,
Jun 12, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/12/98
to

Re: "Home Runs: Mark McGwire vs. Bo Jackson", jon...@alumni.rpi.edu pitched
the following on 12 Jun 98 @ 16:20:48:

j> I once saw Jim Rice just grab the ends of his bat and snap it in
j> half after striking out. Not over his knee, just *snap* in midair.

Ty Cobb once broke a bat just by looking at it.

... PITCHERS.BAT found! Delete DH.SYS (Y/y)?

JMcMar1

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

Jason Kassa asked:

>Please look at these statistics and rank each season from best to worst >with
explanations. Use any method that you would like. Rc/25, ops, >whatever you
want.

<major snip>

Season 1 was his best year (TH = 316), barely edging out Year 3 (TH = 314).
Seasons 5 and 6 tie for his next best seasons (TH = 306), which were barely
better than season 4 (TH = 305) and season 2 (TH = 302).

TH = Total Hitting = Total Bases + BB

Actually, my answer assumes that the league average Total Hitting is identical
from one season to the next. My "favorite toy" is to divide a hitter's TH by
the league average that season to construct his Relative Total Hitting (RTH,
pronounced "Ruth"). [BTW, using RTH, I found that Piazza's 1997 season was NOT
the best hitting season by a catcher].


Jim McMartin

Mike Harmon

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

On 13 Jun 1998 03:20:36 GMT, JMcMar1 <jmc...@aol.com> wrote:
<snip>

>TH = Total Hitting = Total Bases + BB
>
>Actually, my answer assumes that the league average Total Hitting is identical
>from one season to the next. My "favorite toy" is to divide a hitter's TH by
>the league average that season to construct his Relative Total Hitting (RTH,
>pronounced "Ruth"). [BTW, using RTH, I found that Piazza's 1997 season was NOT
>the best hitting season by a catcher].

Actually, you found that Piazza's 1997 season was NOT the highest
RTH for a catcher. The *best hitting* season by a catcher is
something different, and must be evaluated by some measure that
takes outs into account.

Dale J. Stephenson

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

In article <6lro9r$in7$1...@nntp.Stanford.EDU>, n...@Xenon.Stanford.EDU
(Nelson Lu) wrote:

> In article <35814E...@baseball1.com>,
> Sean Lahman <se...@baseball1.com> wrote:
>

> >Getting back to Bo Jackson, it's clear to me that he was a much better

> >running back than he was an outfielder. Of the recent two-sport

> >players, Jackson's really the only one who didn't opt for the sport at

> >which he performed the best. Deion Sanders is clearly a better football

> >player, and I think Brian Jordan is better at baseball.
>

> Yeah, but would Tom Glavine or Kirk McCaskill have been better at hockey had
> they *really* wanted to? :-)
>

According to Glavine, if he had played on Los Angeles with Gretzky, the
Great One would have had to move to wing :->.

--
Dale J. Stephenson * dst...@sirius.com * past his prime

"I know nothing, Colonel Turner, nothing."
-- Sgt. Schuerholz

David Marc Nieporent

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

In <6lrt0m$i...@tako.wwa.com>, James Weisberg <chad...@news.wwa.com> claimed:
>Space Coon <ekau...@usd.edu> wrote:

>>I know this isn't going to go
>>over all that well here, either, but I have to say that
>>Cobb was not even *close* to the athlete Jim Thorpe was.
>>I just had to say it.

> How do you arrive at that conclusion? I don't mind if
>you say that if you indeed are really evaluating the athletic
>skill of both men. Have you done that?
> I mean, Cobb did play other sports at times, but he didn't
>do it professionally. He played some scrimmage games against
>some college football teams, and ran rings around them.

Wow. He "ran rings around" whole teams by himself. What in the world
does that mean?

>He drove race cars.

Not a sport.

>He played golf reasonably well.

Not a sport.

>He was an
>expert hunter/fisherman, if that means anything to you.

Not a sport.

> Primarily, he played and studied the game of baseball.
>But the man was a terrific athlete in his prime. Had he
>concentrated on other sports, there's absolutely no reason
>he couldn't have excelled in them as well.

Right, and there's no reason he couldn't have been elected president and
invented the transistor had he concentrated on doing these things. Get
real, James.

>Cobb was basically
>the same size/shape as Jim Thorpe. And Thorpe didn't even
>work very hard to keep himself in shape at times. Historically,
>I guess Thorpe goes down as a superior athlete, but there's
>no way I would claim it wasn't even close.

Does this surprise anyone?
--
David M. Nieporent "Mr. Simpson, don't you worry. I
niep...@alumni.princeton.edu watched Matlock in a bar last night.
2L - St. John's School of Law The sound wasn't on, but I think I
Roberto Petagine Appreciation Society got the gist of it." -- L. Hutz

DougP001

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

In article <3641_o...@lvdi.net>, outr...@lvdi.net (Terry May) writes:

>
> j> I once saw Jim Rice just grab the ends of his bat and snap it in
> j> half after striking out. Not over his knee, just *snap* in midair.
>
>Ty Cobb once broke a bat just by looking at it.
>

After Ty Cobb heard about George Foster's "Black Beauty" bats, one was
found sawn in half, suspended by a noose from a tree limb "as a warning
to the others."
Doug Pappas

James Weisberg

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

In article <199806131155...@ladder01.news.aol.com>,

Rather uncalled for. Cobb wouldn't have done such a thing.

He did us a black bat, though.

David Marc Nieporent

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

In <358147...@baseball1.com>, Sean Lahman <se...@baseball1.com> claimed:
>David Marc Nieporent wrote:
>> Sean Lahman <se...@baseball1.com> claimed:

>> >Consider each players top-five HR totals:
>> >Griffey: 56 49 45 40 27
>> >McGwire: 58 52 49 42 39
>> >Jackson: 32 28 25 22 16

>> Come on, Sean. The likelihood of Jackson producing, post-hip, was
>> very low, but you're comparing pre-inflated offense numbers with
>> Jackson to post-inflated offense numbers with Griffey-McGwire.

>The original question was whether he'd be doing what McGwire is _absent_
>the hip injury. My opinion was Jackson wouldn't have made much of a
>bang even if he didn't need to have his hip replaced.
>If it makes you feel better, here are some normalized stats comparing
>the three.

[Snip numbers] It does.

>If Jackson's in the same class as those guys, I sure don't see it.

I don't think anybody believes he was as good an overall hitter as these
guys.

>Since we're talking about HR ability. maybe the best comparison is to
>the league leader each year. First, here are the raw numbers.

> 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
>NL Lead: 37 49 39 47 40 38 35 46 43 40 47 49
>AL Lead: 40 49 42 36 51 44 43 46 40 50 52 56
>Griffey: - - - 16 22 22 27 45 40 17 49 56
>McGwire: 3 49 32 33 39 22 42 9 9 39 52 58
>Jackson: 2 22 25 32 28 3 - 16 13

Exactly. This is my point. Pre-inflated offense, McGwire was hitting
30-40 HRs a year, though he was jumping wildly around. Pre-inflated
offense, Griffey was hitting 20-30 HRs per year, though he hadn't yet
reached his prime so it's not fair to make a direct comparison.
Pre-inflated offense, Jackson was hitting 25-30 HRs per year. They're not
that different.

>Then we'll convert them to a percentage (player's HR/AL leader's HR) as
>a rough guide to how well the player did compared to his peers.

> 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
>Griffey - - - 44 43 50 63 98 100 34 94 100
>McGwire 8 100 76 92 76 50 98 20 23 78 100 104
>Jackson: 5 45 60 89 55 7 35 33 - - - -

>And if we look at each guy's best five, that'd be:

>Griffey: 100 100 98 94 63
>McGwire: 104 100 100 92 78
>Jackson: 89 60 55 45 35

>Only once was Jackson even close to leading the league in homers, while
>Griffey and McGwire have each been #1 or #2 four times.

That's "only once" out of four (relatively) full seasons for Jackson,
versus nine seasons for McGwire and eight seasons for Griffey.

>The original question was whether Jackson might have ended up where
>McGwire is now (poised to hit 60+ homeruns), and I just don't see
>_anything_ that remotely suggests that would have happened.
>I'd be pleased to see any data that you think supports that theory, DMN.

I don't think it's likely that he would have, but I don't think your
comparisons make any sense.

I don't think anybody is suggesting that Jackson would hit 60 HRs every
year, so the question is what HR level Jackson would _peak_ at. Looking
at lots of years of Jackson's career, when he wasn't healthy and such,
doesn't help us answer that. Look at the years he was healthy and played
full time, since obviously he's not going to threaten the record in a year
when he's not healthy.

He's approximately the same age as McGwire, and while they were both
playing regularly, their totals looked like this:

> 87 88 89 90
>McGwire: 49 32 33 39
>Jackson: 22 25 32 28

Given that Jackson's development was obviously delayed by football, and
that he was improving as a slugger each year (His SLG each of these four
years: 455-472-495-523), I don't see much here to suggest that McGwire was
a much better HR hitter than Jackson. (McGwire's SLG those years:
618-478-467-489) And Jackson was developing all-around as a hitter, with
his OBPs going like this: 296-287-310-342.

Do I think it's likely he'd have hit 60 HRs? Of course not. It's not
"likely" anybody will. And after 1990, I think it was incredibly unlikely
either of them ever would have.

And after 1991, Jackson had gotten hurt while McGwire's offense had simply
collapsed, so, again, it didn't at all likely that either of them ever
would have.

Your numbers, I fear, do more to obscure than to enlighten. Given those
first four years of Bo's career, what do you think his HR path would have
looked like sans hip injury, given that leaguewide offense jumped way up
in 1993?

Bo, when he started, was a circus act, not a baseball player. But his
final year of health, he was a legitimately good player. 272/342/523,
before league offensive levels went up, was very good.

Paul G. Wenthold

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

Jason Kassa wrote:
>
> Please look at these statistics and rank each season from best to worst with
> explanations. Use any method that you would like. Rc/25, ops, whatever you want.
> The following are fictional statistics of fictional player Jay Casat. After Casat's
> third season with his dismal team, the the manager decided to be the hitting coach
> as well and fired the old hitting coach along with cutting some players. Believing
> that his job security depended on doing what his coach said, Casat faithfully
> changed his style.
>
> Year Pa AB BB H 1B 2B 3B HR K
> 1 567 491 76 126 64 35 2 25 125
> 2 567 498 69 145 97 27 2 19 78
> 3 567 495 72 138 80 34 2 22 99
> 4 567 501 66 156 107 31 2 16 50
> 5 567 503 64 160 110 33 2 15 38
> 6 567 505 62 166 116 35 2 13 25
>
> Sadly, Casat suffered a fictional injury and never played again.

Between years 3 and 4, this player took a different approach
and hit for a little better average at the expense of
homeruns. Note, however, that his SLG doesn't really change
over the 6 years, while his OBP takes a pretty big jump
(.020) because his BB didn't decrease. Year 1 is the
least productive, because of the additional outs (only a .350
OBP).

The last three years are better.

paul

--
Invention is 93% perspiration, 6% electricity, 4% inspiration,
and 2% butterscotch ripple --- Willie Wonka

Paul G. Wenthold

unread,
Jun 13, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/13/98
to

JMcMar1 wrote:
>
> Jason Kassa asked:

>
> >Please look at these statistics and rank each season from best to worst >with
> explanations. Use any method that you would like. Rc/25, ops, >whatever you
> want.
>
> <major snip>
>
> Season 1 was his best year (TH = 316), barely edging out Year 3 (TH = 314).
> Seasons 5 and 6 tie for his next best seasons (TH = 306), which were barely
> better than season 4 (TH = 305) and season 2 (TH = 302).
>
> TH = Total Hitting = Total Bases + BB
>

Which doesn't take the cost into account at all. Season
1 had the most bases+walks, but at the cost of more outs.
Year 3 was better than 1 because of the fewer number of outs
(365 vs 357). By the time you get to year 6 (339 outs), it's even
worse. Do those 10 extra bases obtained make up for the
26 extra outs? No way.

Gerry Myerson

unread,
Jun 15, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/15/98
to

In article <35814C...@baseball1.com>, se...@baseball1.com wrote:

[Bo Jackson projection, much snipped]

-> Year Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG
-> Tot 1356 4809 709 1184 164 27 308 852 424 .246
->
-> That puts him roughly in the company of guys like Jim Wynn
-> (.250/291 HRs).... Better company for sure, but still nowhere
-> near the Hall of Fame.

Hold on there. Have you looked at the BB columns for Wynn & Bo?
The Toy Cannon didn't get any BBWAA support for Cooperstown,
but I say the wrong Wynn is in the Hall.

Gerry Myerson (ge...@mpce.mq.edu.au)

Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 15, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/15/98
to

Please look at these statistics and rank each season from best to worst with
> explanations. Use any method that you would like. Rc/25, ops, whatever you want.
> The following are fictional statistics of fictional player Jay Casat. After Casat's

> third season with his dismal team, the the manager decided to be the hitting coach
> as well and fired the old hitting coach along with cutting some players. Believing
> that his job security depended on doing what his coach said, Casat faithfully
> changed his style.
>
> Year Pa AB BB H 1B 2B 3B HR K
> 1 567 491 76 126 64 35 2 25 125
> 2 567 498 69 145 97 27 2 19 78
> 3 567 495 72 138 80 34 2 22 99
> 4 567 501 66 156 107 31 2 16 50
> 5 567 503 64 160 110 33 2 15 38
> 6 567 505 62 166 116 35 2 13 25

Here are the years ranked by various standards of excellence.
OPS TH%(TOTALBASES+BB)/PA'S) RC/25
6(.885) 1(.557)
6(7.65)
5(.876) 3(.554)
5(7.4)
4(.863) 5,6(.540)
4(7.17)
3(.859) 4(.538)
3(6.65)
2,1(.845) 2(.533)
2(6.608)

1(6.21)

I used these 3 because they are the best methods I know of. The results do not agree
with each
other. What was his best year? If these are the best methods we can safely assume it
was not
season 2. Can anyone explain to me the strengths or weaknesses of a particular method?
Or which
method they think is best and why?

Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 15, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/15/98
to

Jason Kassa

unread,
Jun 15, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/15/98
to
 

Jason Kassa wrote:

Jason Kassa wrote:

> Please look at these statistics and rank each season from best to worst with
> explanations. Use any method that you would like. Rc/25, ops, whatever you want.
> The following are fictional statistics of fictional player Jay Casat. After Casat's
> third season with his dismal team, the the manager decided to be the hitting coach
> as well and fired the old hitting coach along with cutting some players. Believing
> that his job security depended on doing what his coach said, Casat faithfully
> changed his style.
>
>    Year    Pa    AB    BB    H    1B    2B    3B    HR    K
> 1        567    491    76    126    64    35    2    25    125
> 2        567    498    69    145    97    27    2    19    78
> 3        567    495    72    138    80    34    2    22    99
> 4        567    501    66    156    107    31    2    16    50
> 5        567    503    64    160    110    33    2    15    38
> 6        567    505    62    166    116    35    2    13    25

Here are the years ranked by various standards of excellence.OPS             TH%(TOTALBASES+BB)/PA'S)                 RC/25

Ron Johnson

unread,
Jun 15, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/15/98
to

In article <3585B979...@wam.umd.edu>,
Jason Kassa <jas...@wam.umd.edu> wrote:

Please watch your line lengths. This was a major pain to read.

> Please look at these statistics and rank each season from best
> to worst with explanations.

> Use any method that you would like. Rc/25, ops, whatever you want.

> The following are fictional statistics of fictional player Jay Casat.
> After Casat's third season with his dismal team, the the manager
> decided to be the hitting coach as well and fired the old hitting
> coach along with cutting some players. Believing that his job
> security depended on doing what his coach said, Casat faithfully
> changed his style.

> Year Pa AB BB H 1B 2B 3B HR K
> 1 567 491 76 126 64 35 2 25 125
> 2 567 498 69 145 97 27 2 19 78
> 3 567 495 72 138 80 34 2 22 99
> 4 567 501 66 156 107 31 2 16 50
> 5 567 503 64 160 110 33 2 15 38
> 6 567 505 62 166 116 35 2 13 25
>

>Here are the years ranked by various standards of excellence.
> OPS TH%(TOTALBASES+BB)/PA'S) RC/25

(Couldn't parse this section)

>I used these 3 because they are the best methods I know of.

They're all mediocre tools. Of the three RC/25 has the
best correlation with runs scored.


>The results do not agree with each other.

It happens. The years aren't that far apart in value.
If I really care, I'll look at a year using a variety of methods.

And I consider years within 5 runs of each other to have had
essentially the same value.

Here's how a couple of other metrics see the years.

Year RPA BRC RRC AOPS
1 89 86 82 .916
2 91 88 86 .921
3 92 90 87 .933
4 95 94 93 .947
5 96 96 95 .955
6 97 98 98 .966

RPA is Steve Mann's Run Productivity Average. A linear weight
formula with an OBP adjustment. Correlates better with runs
scored than any of the RC formulae.

BRC is basic runs created.

RRC is relative runs created. Runs created adjusted for the
extra outs used.

AOPS is OBP*1.2 + SLG

>What was his best year?

Probably year 6. Though there's really no difference between years
4, 5 and 6

(One of my pet peeves is listings of runs contributed - any method -
that list runs to tenths. This implies far greater accuracy than
any method provides.)

>2. Can anyone explain to me the strengths or weaknesses of a
> particular method?

The primary virtue of OPS is obvious. It's simple and it gets you
within spitting distance.

Before the end of a season, I can't imagine using any other method.

>Or which method they think is best and why?

I think the concept behind Steve Mann's method is the best. I'm
pretty sure that his weights aren't quite right and it's
an annoyingly complicated method.

--
RNJ

Joshua D Rosenthal

unread,
Jun 24, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/24/98
to

This thread got me thinking a little bit...what was the coolest or most
memorable homer you ever saw, personally?

I can think of two instances. One, at a Red Sox game this year, when
little leadoff man Darren Lewis hooked one just around the Pesky Pole...I
think it gave the Sox the lead, too. It was even cooler 'cause I was
sitting in the right field boxes :).

The other was at a Sox game four years back, when Tim Naehring and Scott
Cooper hit back-to-back homers TWICE. That's cool when it happens once,
but twice in the same game? With the same two players?? DAMN, that
rocked.

Josh

Michael David Jones

unread,
Jun 25, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/25/98
to

Joshua D Rosenthal <jd...@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu> writes:

>This thread got me thinking a little bit...what was the coolest or most
>memorable homer you ever saw, personally?

I'll add another Sox one: Sox vs. Royals at Fenway while Joe Morgan
was managing the Sox. Sox were down in the bottom of the ninth with
Jeff Montgomery on for the Royals. We'd already headed up to the back
of the stands to be near the exits. Suddenly, the Sox rally bringing
Mike Greenwell to the plate as the potential winning run. But wait,
they're announcing a pinch hitter! Who? Kevin Romine? And, of course,
Romine hits a walkoff HR into the screen. I vowed at that moment to
never question a Joe Morgan decision, no matter how bizarre it seemed
at the time.

Mike Jones | jon...@rpi.edu

The user does not know what he wants until he sees what he gets.
- Ed Yourdon

NawrockiT

unread,
Jun 25, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/25/98
to

Joshua D. Rosenthal wrote:

: The other was at a Sox game four years back, when Tim Naehring and

: Scott Cooper hit back-to-back homers TWICE. That's cool when it
: happens once, but twice in the same game? With the same two players?? :
DAMN, that rocked.

Ozzie Guillen and

Tom Nawrocki

NawrockiT

unread,
Jun 25, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/25/98
to

Joshua D. Rosenthal wrote:

Ozzie Guillen and Craig Grebeck once hit back to back homers off Nolan Ryan. I
kid you not.


Tom Nawrocki

Lurker Below

unread,
Jun 25, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/25/98
to

On Wed, 24 Jun 1998 11:38:43 -0400, Joshua D Rosenthal
<jd...@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu> wrote:

>This thread got me thinking a little bit...what was the coolest or most
>memorable homer you ever saw, personally?

>I can think of two instances. One, at a Red Sox game this year, when


>little leadoff man Darren Lewis hooked one just around the Pesky Pole...I
>think it gave the Sox the lead, too. It was even cooler 'cause I was
>sitting in the right field boxes :).

>The other was at a Sox game four years back, when Tim Naehring and Scott


>Cooper hit back-to-back homers TWICE. That's cool when it happens once,
>but twice in the same game? With the same two players?? DAMN, that
>rocked.

Personally? Hmmmmmm....

_In person_, Daryl Strawberry hits the scoreboard clock at Busch off
of Ken Dayley in 1985.

On TV _live_, that's tough. Ozzie Smith takes Niedenfuer deep at Busch
in the 1985 NLCS is one, Jack Clark takes him deep at Chavez Ravine in
the next game, Fisk's HR in the 1975 WS, Reggie goes deep for the 3rd
time in (was that 1977?), McGwire hits one out at Busch in his first
AB after signing his contract, Aaron's 715th, Jeter's HR in the 1996
ALCS, Kirby Puckett's HR at the Metrodome in Game 6 of the WS are all
just fantastic. (No, I didn't see Gibson's or Carter's)

Billy

unread,
Jun 25, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/25/98
to

Joshua D Rosenthal <jd...@jhunix.hcf.jhu.edu> writes:

>The other was at a Sox game four years back, when Tim Naehring and Scott
>Cooper hit back-to-back homers TWICE. That's cool when it happens once,
>but twice in the same game? With the same two players?? DAMN, that
>rocked.

Javy Lopez and Andruw Jones did that last week. Back to back
HR in consecutive innings, and to the same part of thepark
(first LF stands, then at the CF camera).


Billy

Paul Botts

unread,
Jun 25, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/25/98
to

In article <6mv0dc$9s5$1...@nnrp1.crl.com>,
Colin Campbell <col...@crl.crl.com> wrote:
> I thought it was terribly cool when Ken Griffey and Ken Griffey Jr.
>hit back-to-back home runs in a Mariners game a few years ago.
>

1. I saw two of the dozen or so "roof shot" homers hit in the old
Comiskey at its true full dimensions (445 to center, 355 down each line,
was altered in the mid-80s by moving the plate out). One was by John
Mayberry and they didn't even give him credit, but I was sitting in the
box seats on a perfect line with the RF foul line when he hit the thing,
saw it the whole way perfectly and it was up on the roof before it
bounced back.
The other was Greg Luzinsky - I was late and walked out the
tunnel into the LF upper deck just as the crowd roared and jumped to its
feet. I literally looked straight up just in time to see the ball vanish
directly over my head onto the roof. THen I looked at how far I was
standing from the plate and got a chill.

2. I saw Robin Ventura at the new COmiskey hit the most classic
game-ender I ever saw: bottom 9th, two out, bases full, alas only *2*
runs down, Texas brings in the aging Gossage. Ventura takes a strike
then goes yard for the win.

3. In 1977 the White Sox' "South Side Hit Men" had the wierdest most
wonderful season I ever saw up close. Mediocre pitching, no defense at
all, no stars of any magnitude, Bill Veeck running "The World's Biggest
Outdoor Saloon", Harry leading "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" from the
booth in a drunken stupor every night. All they had was a bunch of
one-dimensional slugs named Zisk and Gamble and Soderholm, and they
broke every team HR record ever set, and in mid-August they were in
first place and the old joint was rocking every night. Comiskey was
Chicago's 16- to 25-year-old male collective party that whole summer;
the testosterone could be cut with a knife. I probably wouldn't like it
much now as a 35-year-old father and husband, but as a teenager it was
the greatest place in the world.
So one Friday night in mid-August comes a huge series with the
Royals. Of course the Royals were the best team in the division, we all
knew that, but by God there we were clinging to first place anyway.
It's a tense pennant race battle, 4-4 heading into the bottom of
the 9th in front of about 45,000 screaming lunatics (and that old yard
just absolutely rattled and rolled when it had 45,000 people in it).
Lamar Johnson, our favorite utterly mediocre first baseman, leads off
and lines one into the LF lower deck.
I was never in the middle of an explosion like that (and mind
you I was present at the first NBA FInals game the Bulls ever won!). The
fireworks go off from the scoreboard, Veeck in the pressbox cues the
"Hallelujah Chorus" at earplitting volume over the loudspeakers, we all
dance and scream and pound each other on the back (this was
pre-high-five era for all you youngsters). We didn't even start to leave
for a good 20 minutes and after Johnson had to make two curtain calls.
Of course reality set it eventually: the Sox tailed off and more
importantly the Royals went something like 25-5 in September and blew
away the division. But I'll never forget that homer!

--
"The United States would be just about perfect if it were not for three
flaws: it is obsessed with race, it is full of lawyers, and it is
overrun by religious nuts." Gwynne Dyer, Chicago Tribune, 4/22/98
This email was from Paul Botts: p...@mcs.com, http://www.mcs.net/~prb/

cpd2.usu.edu

unread,
Jun 25, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/25/98
to

Reds' reliever Clay Carroll, in a tie game in the 10th inning one day in
the late '60's. Off Bob Gibson. Imagine, oh, Rod Beck hitting an
extra-inning game winning homer off Maddux, and you've about got it.

Perry

Colin Campbell

unread,
Jun 26, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/26/98
to

Greg Ioannou

unread,
Jun 26, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/26/98
to

In article <35927831...@news.inlink.com>, lur...@below.com (Lurker Below) wrote:

>On TV _live_, that's tough. Ozzie Smith takes Niedenfuer deep at Busch
>in the 1985 NLCS is one, Jack Clark takes him deep at Chavez Ravine in
>the next game, Fisk's HR in the 1975 WS, Reggie goes deep for the 3rd
>time in (was that 1977?), McGwire hits one out at Busch in his first
>AB after signing his contract, Aaron's 715th, Jeter's HR in the 1996
>ALCS, Kirby Puckett's HR at the Metrodome in Game 6 of the WS are all
>just fantastic. (No, I didn't see Gibson's or Carter's)

Best I've ever seen in person (or ever will) was Carter's. A friend who was
too sick to go to the game gave me her ticket in section 539 that day. It
felt like Joe hit the home run right AT ME! It eventually landed a couple of
rows out of my reach. My brother, who saw the game on TV, phoned the next day,
and said, "you wore that sweater I gave you to the ball game last night,
didn't you?"

Best I've ever seen on TV? The one that bounced off Jose Canseco's head and
over the fence. I don't think I've even laughed so hard.

Greg Ioannou
gr...@e-mend.com

Thomas White

unread,
Jun 28, 1998, 3:00:00 AM6/28/98
to

In a 1995 three-game series, Boston at Texas, we witnessed
- a home run by Willie McGee (one of two all season)
- a pinch-hit grand slam by Bill Haselman
- Luis Alicea going yard from both sides in one game.

Most impressive I've seen at The Ballpark: Thomas' blast in the
1995 All-Star Game. It barely reached its apex before landing
in a skybox.

--
Thomas White %
Austin, TX % As pictured on the cover of Total Baseball V.
% (One of the tiny pixels in centerfield.)
tjw...@io.com %

0 new messages