Wormhole Stability Question
Ro
What is the full range of wormhole stability (e.g. rock solid,..
stable,.. unstable, ..), and does anyone know what is the *quantitative*
difference between the various levels? Specifically, what does
'extremely volatile' mean - can I expect it to be around another 2
turns?
* Ro
--
GMD/E/S d>! s: a- C++ ULIS P+ L+ E W++ N++ K- w++@ O M--- V PS--@ PE+++
Y+ t(t--) 5++(+++) X+ R(+) tv(+) b+ DI+ D- G++ e++>++++>+++++
h----()(*) r+++ x++++*
Aldaron
Ro wrote:
> What is the full range of wormhole stability (e.g. rock solid,..
> stable,.. unstable, ..), and does anyone know what is the *quantitative*
> difference between the various levels? Specifically, what does
> 'extremely volatile' mean - can I expect it to be around another 2
> turns?
This is straight out of the manual:
"Rock Solid wormholes can stay in one general area for 30 years or more.
Very Unstable (read extremely volatile) tend to move to a different area
within about 5 years.
Each end of the wormhole moves independently. Due to their complex nature,
wormholes jiggle a bit every year. Their exact location is always shifting"
--
We walk in the darkness where others fear to tread
We stand upon the bridge so none shall pass
We walk between the Shadow and the Light
We live for the One
We die for the One....in Valen's name.
----Anla'Shok Moto
Ro
>
> > What is the full range of wormhole stability (e.g. rock solid,..
> > stable,.. unstable, ..), and does anyone know what is the *quantitative*
> > difference between the various levels? Specifically, what does
> > 'extremely volatile' mean - can I expect it to be around another 2
> > turns?
>
> This is straight out of the manual:
>
> "Rock Solid wormholes can stay in one general area for 30 years or more.
> Very Unstable (read extremely volatile) tend to move to a different area
> within about 5 years.
Yes, yes, I read the manual. The reason I posted this question is because the
words "Very Unstable" and "Extremely Volatile" do not read the same.. at least
not in English. Since the difference between "moves to a different area in 5
years" and "moves to a different area in 2 years" is the difference between
life and death in some cases, the question is relevant.
Thanks anyway, I always appreciate replies.
Gary Seven
Ro wrote:
>
> > Ro wrote:
> >
> > > What is the full range of wormhole stability (e.g. rock solid,..
> > > stable,.. unstable, ..), and does anyone know what is the *quantitative*
> > > difference between the various levels? Specifically, what does
> > > 'extremely volatile' mean - can I expect it to be around another 2
> > > turns?
> >
> > This is straight out of the manual:
<snip>
>
> Yes, yes, I read the manual. The reason I posted this question is because the
> words "Very Unstable" and "Extremely Volatile" do not read the same.. at least
> not in English. Since the difference between "moves to a different area in 5
> years" and "moves to a different area in 2 years" is the difference between
> life and death in some cases, the question is relevant.
Wormhole movement is random. I have seen Extremely Volotile WHs
linger for 5-10 years... basicly, with an extremely volotile
WH, there is a *really good* chance that it will be gone the
following year... Since I have never recorded WH persistance, I
really couldn't quote you the odds tho.
--
---> Gary Seven
GarySeven on #Stars
gary...@abcde.cncfamily.com
http://abcde.cncfamily.com/waypoint87.html
Graham Scarborough
Christmas Lunch I did a little 'Wormhole
Watching'
This was done in the J Patch RC2 in a Small
Universe where 3 wormhole 'pairs' were observed
The wormhole stability goes in the following scale :
Rock Solid
Stable
Mostly Stable
Average
Slightly Volatile
Volatile
Extremely Volatile
I observed each of the 6 holes through at least one
full 'cycle' each.
I judged a cycle to begin in the year that a wormhole
jumped a significant distance.
In every case (a total of 15 cycles), the year that
the jump occurred, the wormhole gained the status of
'Rock Solid'
In general terms the wormhole gradually decayed from
rock solid through to Extremely volatile, before
jumping to a new location and regaining the rock solid
status.
The most common cycle (8 out of 15) consisted of :
10 or 15 years at Rock Solid
5 years at Stable
5 years at Mostly Stable
5 years at Average
5 years at Slightly Volatile
5 years at Volatile
followed by "a number of" years at Extremely volatile
(anywhere between 1 and 68 years in the tests I did ! )
50% of the wormholes observed spent 10 years at Rock
Solid and 50% spent 15 years at Rock Solid.
The remaining 7 cycles aborted early somewhere between
Stable and Volatile i.e. the wormhole jumped and regained
Rock Solid status before the 'regulation' 5 years had
elapsed at one of the intermediate stabilities
I did not observe any wormhole with a Rock Solid status
making a jump.
Only a small test but some pretty strong patterns have
emerged.
Hope this helps
Graham
Ro
Thanks. I don't think I could have gotten a more thorough answer.
I have passed this information along to Dave Johnston with the
suggestion that he add it to the current advanced technical faq. Last
time I checked there was nothing there about wormholes.
* Ro
Jason Cawley
Graham Scarborough wrote in message
<946171992.14821.0...@news.demon.co.uk>...
>Only a small test but some pretty strong patterns have
>emerged.
>
>Hope this helps
Super-neat, Graham :-) Good work. The beta-decay of wormholes, looks
like...
Sincerely,
Jason Cawley
Wesley Clifford
Somebody should put this up on a website somewhere, a Wormhole FAQ
this is!
--Wesley
The only stupid question is the unasked question.
And that's a good thing, because I hate stupid questions!
Pekka
>
> What is the full range of wormhole stability (e.g. rock solid,..
> stable,.. unstable, ..), and does anyone know what is the *quantitative*
> difference between the various levels? Specifically, what does
> 'extremely volatile' mean - can I expect it to be around another 2
> turns?
A stupid question: "on a qualitative level", what is the
overall story of wormhole life?
They gradually turn up? Or are all of them in the galaxy all the
time, since the game and galaxy were created? (We just spot them
gradually?)
They never vanish completely, one end or the other just moves
to another area in the galaxy, as explained earlier in this thread?
Each wormhole endpoint lives a life of its own, independently
of the other end or other wormholes?
I know that there may be no good answers to stupid questions
(except at Jeff's), but what is your general opinion?
- Pekka
--
Please send your replies to: pilah...@netscape.net ;
... but in any case ...
just relax my friend, life's nothing but one's personal
collection of workarounds to deal with the odd reality.
Klempner
> Whilst the rest of the family slept off the
> Christmas Lunch I did a little 'Wormhole
> Watching'
>
I can absolutely confirm Grahams test and have some
additionl figures (using J-RC2, german version)
I used a small to medium testbeds with one to four
pairs of wormholes
the number of wormholes never changed in a game
each wormhole has its "Rock-Hard-Period" that never
changed during the tests
the "Rock-Hard-Period" (the initial period after a
jump described by Graham) has been 5, 10 and 15 years
I never observed a Jump during a "Rock-Hard-Period"
and here come some data from Worm Hole Watching:
Rock Solid 0 Jumps / 950 years = 0.00%
Stable 2 Jumps / 336 years = 0.60%
Mostly Stable 6 Jumps / 317 years = 1.89%
Average 10 Jumps / 269 years = 3.72%
Slightly Volatile 7 Jumps / 231 years = 3.03%
Volatile 12 Jumps / 193 years = 6.21%
Extremely Volatile 32 Jumps / 865 years = 3.70%
It is interesting to see that "Volatile" Wormholes
are more likely to jump than "Extremely Volatiles"
the record for Extremely Volatile Wormholes was
a jump after 104 Extremely Volatile years
hope that this was
interesting for someone
Peter
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.
Martin Leslie Leuschen
<useful WH stuff>
: Hope this helps
It does indeed. Saved for future reference.
Regards,
martinl
John
Klempner <klem...@my-deja.com> wrote:
> "Graham Scarborough" wrote:
> > Whilst the rest of the family slept off the
> > Christmas Lunch I did a little 'Wormhole
> > Watching'
> I can absolutely confirm Grahams test and have some
> additionl figures (using J-RC2, german version)
Great work, both of you.
> the "Rock-Hard-Period" (the initial period after a
> jump described by Graham) has been 5, 10 and 15 years
So, as I under stand it, it really have 1, 2 or 3 periods at rock solid?
All periods being 5 years.
> Rock Solid 0 Jumps / 950 years = 0.00%
> Stable 2 Jumps / 336 years = 0.60%
> Mostly Stable 6 Jumps / 317 years = 1.89%
> Average 10 Jumps / 269 years = 3.72%
> Slightly Volatile 7 Jumps / 231 years = 3.03%
> Volatile 12 Jumps / 193 years = 6.21%
> Extremely Volatile 32 Jumps / 865 years = 3.70%
Looks like what you would expect, a gradually increasing chance.
> It is interesting to see that "Volatile" Wormholes
> are more likely to jump than "Extremely Volatiles"
> the record for Extremely Volatile Wormholes was
> a jump after 104 Extremely Volatile years
Well, above groups will have to jump after 5 years.
The chance for a EV WH to jump in the first 5 years would be
interesting, even if data sets will have to be quite large when dealing
whit tis small chances.
--
Can I have a new cat now?
Brian Singleton
current cycle? I mean, will it increase the chance of a state change or a
jump?
Brian
"Martin Leslie Leuschen" <mar...@rice.edu> wrote in message
news:850bl2$igj$1...@joe.rice.edu...
Klempner
> I have a question. Does usage of a wormhole decrease it's life in
> the current cycle? I mean, will it increase the chance of a state
> change or a jump?
good question!
I always assumed that there is NO influence
and it might take a long time to get sufficient data
to answer that question
I might do a short test but if the lifetime of the
used wormhole does not decrease drastically
I will continue to assume no difference
until someone else will prove me wrong
greetings
Peter
Klempner
> I have a question. Does usage of a wormhole decrease it's life in
> the current cycle? I mean, will it increase the chance of a state
> change or a jump?
I have executed some further Wormhole test - this time
sending 200 fleets (SFX with Trans Star 10) through the
holes for a while:
Rock Hard _______: 0/280 = 0.00%
Stable __________: 1/109 = 0.92%
Mostly Stable ___: 2/101 = 1.98%
Average _________: 4/97 = 4.12%
Slightly Volatile: 5/71 = 5.04%
Volatile ________: 4/42 = 9.42%
Extremly Volatile: 6/160 = 3,75%
The numbers are rather similar to the numbers
without wormhole usage. I think we can assume no
important influence from this side.
I am now 99.99% sure that RockHard Wormholes will
NEVER jump (please tell me if anyone vitnesses
such an event).
I was expecting that the probability to jump would
increase with decreasing stability
Therefore I was very surprised by the staility of
extremely volatile wormholes. Since I have been
watching several thousand wormhole years i am pretty
sure not to be mislead by outlyers (dont know how to spell this word)
Michael Rickert
"Klempner" <klem...@my-deja.com> wrote in message
news:8561iu$kbh$1...@nnrp1.deja.com...
Volatile, that end will eventually suddenly jump to a random spot, and
become rock-solid. Is this true? and if so, am I just being stupid by
asking?
Mic
Wesley Clifford
<mric...@home.com> wrote:
>I have a question...It seems to me that once a wormhole gets to Extremly
>Volatile, that end will eventually suddenly jump to a random spot, and
>become rock-solid. Is this true?
Yes, that is true.
>and if so, am I just being stupid by
>asking?
See my .sig.
Klempner
> Klempner wrote:
> > Rock Hard _______: 0/280 = 0.00%
> > Stable __________: 1/109 = 0.92%
> > Mostly Stable ___: 2/101 = 1.98%
> > Average _________: 4/97 = 4.12%
> > Slightly Volatile: 5/71 = 5.04%
> > Volatile ________: 4/42 = 9.42%
> > Extremly Volatile: 6/160 = 3,75%
"Michael Rickert" <mric...@home.com> wrote:
> I have a question...It seems to me that once a wormhole gets to
> Extremly Volatile, that end will eventually suddenly jump to a
> random spot, and become rock-solid. Is this true? and if so, am
> I just being stupid by asking?
>
> Mic
The question definitely is not a stupid one and I will try
to explain what I know about wormholes once again:
1.the number of wormholes in a galaxy during a game is a constant!!
there are always two, wormhole ends connected for the entire game
2.the wormhole ends exist is cycles
a.after a jump the end always is "Rock Solid" and it will remain
"Rock Solid" for 5, 10 or 15 years - which is a constant for
every end during the entire game
b.while an end is "Rock Solid" it will NEVER jump (I would bet
on that - and only the Jeffs could make me insecure by posting
that the chance >0.00%)
c.after this initial "Rock Solid" period the end suffers a steady
decrease of stabilty (Stable, Mostly Stable, Average, Slightly
Volatile and Volatile) staying in each period for five years until
it finally will becom Extremly Volatile
d.sometimes wormholes jump even before becomeing "Extremly Volatile"
(otherwise there would not be much sense in defining different
stability levels) - and the only thing is was surprised of, was
the fact that "Extremly Volatile" ends are significantly more
stable than "Volatile" ones - see the figures above
3.the chance of a jump is proably not changed by usage a wormhole
at least I could not cause a siginficant change even by really
excessive use
I did my tests with JRC2 german version exclusively and I dont know
if the chances have changed from patch to patch
I think that was the most one could say about wormholes
James Felling
Klempner wrote:
> > Klempner wrote:
> > > Rock Hard _______: 0/280 = 0.00%
> > > Stable __________: 1/109 = 0.92%
> > > Mostly Stable ___: 2/101 = 1.98%
> > > Average _________: 4/97 = 4.12%
> > > Slightly Volatile: 5/71 = 5.04%
> > > Volatile ________: 4/42 = 9.42%
> > > Extremly Volatile: 6/160 = 3,75%
>
> "Michael Rickert" <mric...@home.com> wrote:
> > I have a question...It seems to me that once a wormhole gets to
> > Extremly Volatile, that end will eventually suddenly jump to a
> > random spot, and become rock-solid. Is this true? and if so, am
> > I just being stupid by asking?
> >
> > Mic
>
> The question definitely is not a stupid one and I will try
> to explain what I know about wormholes once again:
>
> 1.the number of wormholes in a galaxy during a game is a constant!!
> there are always two, wormhole ends connected for the entire game
False. I have seen games with 3 plus pairs of wormholes in existence for
a long time.
My guess is that they can be created/destroyed by random events.
Damon Domjan
<james....@mail.arcanelogic.com> wrote:
>> 1.the number of wormholes in a galaxy during a game is a constant!!
>> there are always two, wormhole ends connected for the entire game
>
>False. I have seen games with 3 plus pairs of wormholes in existence for
>a long time.
Perhaps what he meant is that there's always a minimum of 1 pair - eg
in a tiny. I have a feeling the number of wormholes scales with the
universe size, though I haven't gone and testbedded exclusively for
it.
>My guess is that they can be created/destroyed by random events.
I doubt it, but have no evidence to back me up. Anyone want to run
wormhole tests in the various size/density universes? (gut instinct
says it's the size and not the density that affects the number of
wormholes).
Damon
Orca on #Stars!
--
http://dariasounds.home.dhs.org/
PixelCat
news:38875D92...@mail.arcanelogic.com...
> > 1.the number of wormholes in a galaxy during a game is a constant!!
> > there are always two, wormhole ends connected for the entire game
> False. I have seen games with 3 plus pairs of wormholes in existence for
> a long time.
Actually, what I think he meant is that wormholes always come in pairs.
Klempner
> > False...
Ok, I definitely did not express this clear enough
the number of wormholes is constant during a game
(I have never see the creatint nor destruction)
and the number of ends is an even number
(wormholes always come in pairs)
the total number of wormholes is a function of
universe size but influenced by random
(I had small Universes with 1, 2 or three wormholepairs)
I don't know what the maximum number of wormholes is
I have not tested that
still anything unclaryfied?
Michael Rickert
"Damon Domjan" <ro...@127.0.0.1> wrote in message
news:klqe8s4dreu7rigb6...@4ax.com...
> >> there are always two, wormhole ends connected for the entire game
> >
> >False. I have seen games with 3 plus pairs of wormholes in existence for
> >a long time.
>
> in a tiny. I have a feeling the number of wormholes scales with the
> universe size, though I haven't gone and testbedded exclusively for
> it.
>
> >My guess is that they can be created/destroyed by random events.
>
> I doubt it, but have no evidence to back me up. Anyone want to run
> wormhole tests in the various size/density universes? (gut instinct
> says it's the size and not the density that affects the number of
> wormholes).
>
> Damon
> Orca on #Stars!
> --
> http://dariasounds.home.dhs.org/
game
Wesley Clifford
wrote:
>still anything unclaryfied?
One last thing, has anybody ever observed both ends of the same
wormhole vanish and reappear somewhere else in the same year? It's
possible given the evidence we've already got, but does the game allow
it. Assuming it is possible, has it ever been observed that this could
create an extra wormhole pair, or possibly destroy the wormhole pair?
Klempner
> One last thing, has anybody ever observed both ends of the same
> wormhole vanish and reappear somewhere else in the same year?
it happened during my wormhole watching tests a couple
of times. I would guess every single wormhole end is
jumping completely independent
> Assuming it is possible, has it ever been observed that this could
> create an extra wormhole pair, or possibly destroy the wormhole pair?
It is rather difficult to falsify the possibility of
a wormhole creation (i cant see any other than looking
at the program itself) but I have never seen any (within
about 10,000 wormhole years = turn x number of wormhole
ends existing in the galaxy)
Michael Cook
bothering me for some time. I've checked out the advanced FAQ, in
particular the question about the order of events.
In the order of events is the event "Wormhole entry points jiggle". Then
other events are listed. Then comes the event "Wormhole exit points
jiggle". Aren't the entry points and the exit points the same things?
It has been my experience that if one of my fleets shows an ETA of one
year to a wormhole, it will make it in that year. So, I suspect that the
jiggling occurs after fleet movement.
--------------------------------------
Pie aren't square. Pie are round!
Klempner
> While we're on the subject of wormholes ...
>
> In the order of events is the event "Wormhole entry points jiggle".
> Then other events are listed. Then comes the event "Wormhole exit
> points jiggle". Aren't the entry points and the exit points the same
> things?
>
> It has been my experience that if one of my fleets shows an ETA of
> one year to a wormhole, it will make it in that year. So, I suspect
> that the jiggling occurs after fleet movement.
Hm, I think you are right. Contrary to the "Order of Events" list
I also think there is no "entry point jiggle". I also can't remember
ever having failed getting into a wormhole
I have not run any explicit test (and won't) so I will not change
the "Order of Events" list, but maybe someone else will do so