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Indurain redux?

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Scott

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Jun 20, 2006, 3:58:44 PM6/20/06
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It seems from Basso's recent comments re: losing time in the TT's to
Ullrich that he may not be able to make up in the mountains, that we
may be seeing a return to the Indurain model: crush 'em in the TTs and
stay close in the mountains.

I'm hoping that while Basso tries everything to shake Ullrich he sets
up Floyd for the win. After reading the current Outside magazine
article on Floyd I find myself pulling for him to win even more.

Tom Kunich

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Jun 20, 2006, 9:52:17 PM6/20/06
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"Scott" <hendric...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1150833524.1...@u72g2000cwu.googlegroups.com...

That's undoubtedly Jan's best chance plan.

Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.


T Ruth

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Jun 21, 2006, 7:13:52 AM6/21/06
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>
> Floyd has only one chance - that's if Jan and Ivan crash each other out of
> the racing. Floyd can't TT with Jan nor climb with Ivan.

I guess it's possible Floyd could end up on the podium if Basso and Jan
are out of the race. But not likely.

Simon Brooke

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Jun 21, 2006, 8:31:20 AM6/21/06
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in message <1150833524.1...@u72g2000cwu.googlegroups.com>, Scott
('hendric...@hotmail.com') wrote:

> It seems from Basso's recent comments re: losing time in the TT's to
> Ullrich that he may not be able to make up in the mountains, that we
> may be seeing a return to the Indurain model: crush 'em in the TTs and
> stay close in the mountains.

H'mmm... I'm skeptical. At this level, a good TT performance can be worth
a couple of minutes at best, but a good mountain break is at least twice
that; and there are more mountain stages than time trials. 'Stay close
in the mountains' is fine if you can, but once you're off the back you
are losing time fast. The only person who consistently stayed with Basso
in the mountains in the Giro was Piepoli, and, as others have pointed
out, he's not starting the Tour.

Ullrich will take a minute at most out of Basso in each individual time
trial - stage 7 and stage 19. Basso will take more out of Ullrich on
each of stage 11 (Val d'Aran) stage 15 (Alpe d'Huez), stage 16 (la
Toussuire). Therefore Basso will have the yellow jersey in Paris.

--
si...@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

to err is human, to lisp divine
;; attributed to Kim Philby, oddly enough.

Stu Fleming

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Jun 21, 2006, 9:21:49 AM6/21/06
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Oh.
I had my top 3 for the Tour as Ullrich, Basso, Landis.

gym.gravity

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Jun 21, 2006, 10:11:40 AM6/21/06
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I'm going to bookmark these posts.

Scott

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Jun 21, 2006, 2:50:57 PM6/21/06
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Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.

As for the folks who say Floyd can't TT with Ullrich or climb with
Basso, I think we'll see in a few weeks that you're wrong on both
counts.

riggo...@hotmail.com

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Jun 21, 2006, 3:45:06 PM6/21/06
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> Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
> TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
> lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
> along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.

Remember the Galibier stage in the '98 tour? A rain-soaked Ullrich in
the yellow jersey, grovelling up the climb in a state of utter bonkdom
while Pantani was putting huge minutes into him off the front.

In truth I think it was actually toward the end of the '97 tour that
the climbers actually started to figure out the Ullrich could be
attacked successfully in the mountains. They seemed to come out
swinging in '98.

> As for the folks who say Floyd can't TT with Ullrich or climb with
> Basso, I think we'll see in a few weeks that you're wrong on both
> counts.

If nothing else, it should be an interesting TdF...which is more than
you can say about the last few years editions.

Dan Connelly

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Jun 21, 2006, 3:48:00 PM6/21/06
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The logic was flawed. He doesn't need to out time trial Ullrich, just gain more
time on climbs than Ullrich gains in time trials, and gain more time in time trials
than Basso gains in mountains.

But it won't happen. He might get second, but Basso is a rock solid lock for
first.

Dan

Scott

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Jun 21, 2006, 4:06:50 PM6/21/06
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riggo...@hotmail.com wrote:
> > Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
> > TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
> > lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
> > along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.
>
> Remember the Galibier stage in the '98 tour? A rain-soaked Ullrich in
> the yellow jersey, grovelling up the climb in a state of utter bonkdom
> while Pantani was putting huge minutes into him off the front.
>
> In truth I think it was actually toward the end of the '97 tour that
> the climbers actually started to figure out the Ullrich could be
> attacked successfully in the mountains. They seemed to come out
> swinging in '98.
>

While I can't/won't say whether Ullrich is/was clean, we know pretty
certainly that Pantani wasn't. His ability to put Ullrich under such
pressure as to lead to his cracking on that day could very well have
been artificially inspired.

Regardless, we're not talking about the Ullrich of '98, we're talking
about the more recent Ullrich who's shown much more maturity and
tenacity in the mountains. Having said that, anyone can crack (yes,
even Basso) so on a given day who knows how things will turn out.

Barring unforseen circumstances, I don't see Basso putting so much
pressure on Ullrich that he rides himself into blowing up. A more
likely scenario is that Ullrich diesels along as always, limiting his
losses. Who knows, with the team of climbers he's bringing with him,
he may put Basso into trouble.

Either way, I'm still rooting for Floyd!

yeahyeah

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Jun 21, 2006, 4:12:34 PM6/21/06
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Simon Brooke wrote:
> in message <1150833524.1...@u72g2000cwu.googlegroups.com>, Scott
> ('hendric...@hotmail.com') wrote:

> Ullrich will take a minute at most out of Basso in each individual time
> trial - stage 7 and stage 19. Basso will take more out of Ullrich on
> each of stage 11 (Val d'Aran) stage 15 (Alpe d'Huez), stage 16 (la
> Toussuire). Therefore Basso will have the yellow jersey in Paris.

Stage 11's finish is 13km at a lowly 5.5% - I don't think that's going
to be steep enough for Basso to get much of an advantage.
Stage 15, might not be as decisive either if things go like 2003
Alpe d'Huez match ups:
2003: Basso 1:24 faster than Ullrich
2004: (ITT) Ullrich 1:22 faster than Basso

Stage 16 will be hard for Ullrich, but the finishing climb is 18.4 @6%
- not as steep as Plateau de Beille in 2004 where Ullrich lost 2:42,
and similar to Courchevel where Ulle held Basso to 1:12 in 2005.

I'm betting on Ullrich using the two long TT's to put time into the
rest, and holding his own in the mountains, limiting his losses to less
than a minute on these 3 stages and taking the yellow into Paris. I'm
betting on Basso having one catastrophic TT where he loses 2+ minutes
(but not as bad as the 6' he lost in '03).

Finally, bumbles bounce. This year the first real mountains don't come
until stage 10. Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash. The man went
through the back window of a car and finished on the podium of the
tour. Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One
high-speed get-off and he's gonna be screwed.

riggo...@hotmail.com

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Jun 21, 2006, 4:30:27 PM6/21/06
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Scott wrote:
> While I can't/won't say whether Ullrich is/was clean, we know pretty
> certainly that Pantani wasn't. His ability to put Ullrich under such
> pressure as to lead to his cracking on that day could very well have
> been artificially inspired.

Yeah Pantani probably was on the juice but Ullrich still cracked open
like a watermelon dropped off an 8-story building. All he had to do
was "ride within himself" and limit the damage but he couldn't do it.

That episode probably doesn't mean much for the 2006 Tour other than
one bad day in the mountains can cost you lots of time and maybe the
race. A bad TT, OTOH, is less likely to cost you as much. (See LA's
supposed "worst day ever on the bike"-- the TT in 2003 where Jan smoked
him. He got killed but "only" by 90 seconds. That was hardly the 9 or
10 minutes he lost to Pantani on the Galibier in '98).

> Regardless, we're not talking about the Ullrich of '98, we're talking
> about the more recent Ullrich who's shown much more maturity and
> tenacity in the mountains. Having said that, anyone can crack (yes,
> even Basso) so on a given day who knows how things will turn out.

> Barring unforseen circumstances, I don't see Basso putting so much
> pressure on Ullrich that he rides himself into blowing up. A more
> likely scenario is that Ullrich diesels along as always, limiting his
> losses. Who knows, with the team of climbers he's bringing with him,
> he may put Basso into trouble.

Agreed, but Jan is at that point where "maturity" can quickly turn the
into "over-the-hill". The fact is, if Basso (or anyone else) ramps up
the pace in the midst of a climb, Jan will not be able to go with them.
He will have to "diesel along" and hope the the protaganist dies.



> Either way, I'm still rooting for Floyd!

Floyd is the man!

jeremy

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Jun 21, 2006, 5:14:48 PM6/21/06
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I like Basso, but I'm a little concerned that he might have burnt his
matches in the Giro. I think there are two possible outcomes for Basso
in the tour - he rides like he did in the Giro and dominates, or he
gets sick and becomes pack fodder. I'm guessing it's the latter.

I also have one more prediction for this year's tour: everyone will be
Time Trialing like Floyd with their bars angled up next year because
Floyd will win one of the TTs this year (thank goodness you don't need
a good team to be a good time trialist).

h squared

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Jun 21, 2006, 5:30:13 PM6/21/06
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yeahyeah wrote:

> Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
> first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash.

yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
to go look at the stage details though.)

> Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One
> high-speed get-off and he's gonna be screwed.

wait, i thought you had a soft spot for the man.
(http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.racing/msg/1cb1397940777406?hl=en&)

or maybe the two issues are separate, dunno.

heather

Scott

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Jun 21, 2006, 6:23:04 PM6/21/06
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h squared wrote:
>
> yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
> is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
> to go look at the stage details though.)
>
> heather

Yea, but Floyd is a descending mofo, a skill he learned as a mountain
biker. Ullrich may sink like a stone, but he doesn't descend like one.
I doubt Basso has the stones to follow Floyd down the more perilous
descents, especially if it's raining.

If the situation presents itself, there's NO way Floyd would pull a
Simoni and agree to take it easy. I imagine he'd more likely flip him
the bird as he pulled away into the next hairpin.

BTW, if you haven't yet, read the article on Floyd in the current issue
of 'Outside'. What a character!

Ewoud Dronkert

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Jun 22, 2006, 3:06:04 AM6/22/06
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On Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:30:13 -0700, h squared wrote:
>yeahyeah wrote:
>> Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man.
>
>wait, i thought you had a soft spot for the man.
>or maybe the two issues are separate, dunno.

Or rather, connected?

--
E. Dronkert

Bob Martin

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Jun 22, 2006, 3:33:39 AM6/22/06
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I predict Landis will not be in the top 6.

Bob Martin

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Jun 22, 2006, 3:36:24 AM6/22/06
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in 508894 20060621 204506 riggo...@hotmail.com wrote:
>> Basso himself thinks he'll lose more time than that to Ullrich in the
>> TT's. I suppose you're right that if you blow up on the climbs you'll
>> lose lot's of time, but Ullrich doesn't typically blow up. He motors
>> along in diesel mode, limiting the damage.
>
>Remember the Galibier stage in the '98 tour? A rain-soaked Ullrich in
>the yellow jersey, grovelling up the climb in a state of utter bonkdom
>while Pantani was putting huge minutes into him off the front.
>
>In truth I think it was actually toward the end of the '97 tour that
>the climbers actually started to figure out the Ullrich could be
>attacked successfully in the mountains. They seemed to come out
>swinging in '98.

It wasn't Pantani that beat Ullrich on the Deux Alpes stage but the weather.
How many riders have the power to arrange a cold wet day then make the
most of it?

Donald Munro

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Jun 22, 2006, 5:42:45 AM6/22/06
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Bob Martin wrote:
> It wasn't Pantani that beat Ullrich on the Deux Alpes stage but the weather.
> How many riders have the power to arrange a cold wet day then make the
> most of it?

A puncture at the bottom of the climb wasn't particularly helpful to
Ullrich's cause either. If it had been LANCE presumably all the LANCE
tifosi would have said that Pantani should have waited.

Simon Brooke

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Jun 21, 2006, 6:10:42 PM6/21/06
to
in message <1150921827.4...@g10g2000cwb.googlegroups.com>,

> Scott wrote:
>> While I can't/won't say whether Ullrich is/was clean, we know pretty
>> certainly that Pantani wasn't. His ability to put Ullrich under such
>> pressure as to lead to his cracking on that day could very well have
>> been artificially inspired.
>
> Yeah Pantani probably was on the juice but Ullrich still cracked open
> like a watermelon dropped off an 8-story building. All he had to do
> was "ride within himself" and limit the damage but he couldn't do it.

He is /much/ more experienced now. Still, the wheels can still come off
him in the mountains, as we saw with the dreadfully fissile T-Mo of last
year. Here's hoping that T-Mo can at least ride as if they were all on
the same team this year - the biggest improvement to Ullrich's chances
is the departure of Vinokourov.

> That episode probably doesn't mean much for the 2006 Tour other than
> one bad day in the mountains can cost you lots of time and maybe the
> race. A bad TT, OTOH, is less likely to cost you as much. (See LA's
> supposed "worst day ever on the bike"-- the TT in 2003 where Jan smoked
> him. He got killed but "only" by 90 seconds. That was hardly the 9 or
> 10 minutes he lost to Pantani on the Galibier in '98).

Exactly, that's what I believe. Someone who's a great climber but a so-so
time trialler is always going to beat someone who is a great time
trialler but a so-so climber on general classification, because the time
you tend to lose when things go wrong is so much higher in the
mountains.

>> Barring unforseen circumstances, I don't see Basso putting so much
>> pressure on Ullrich that he rides himself into blowing up. A more
>> likely scenario is that Ullrich diesels along as always, limiting his
>> losses. Who knows, with the team of climbers he's bringing with him,
>> he may put Basso into trouble.
>
> Agreed, but Jan is at that point where "maturity" can quickly turn the
> into "over-the-hill". The fact is, if Basso (or anyone else) ramps up
> the pace in the midst of a climb, Jan will not be able to go with them.
> He will have to "diesel along" and hope the the protaganist dies.

Ullrich basically has to ride steadily in the hope of Basso getting ill
or crashing. Both of which are, let's face it, possible.

The trouble with Simon is that he only opens his mouth to change feet.
;; of me, by a 'friend'

yeahyeah

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Jun 22, 2006, 8:59:12 AM6/22/06
to

Actually, the girly man thing was a reference to that fake Ullrich
Myspace page... I still think Basso is adorable, but he just dominated
too much in the Giro to make it fun. I just want ol' Ulle to finally
get his 2nd TdF win.

Curtis L. Russell

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Jun 22, 2006, 9:15:11 AM6/22/06
to
On 21 Jun 2006 14:14:48 -0700, "jeremy" <jeremy...@gmail.com>
wrote:

The first doesn't really qualify as a prediction - its a guess. A
prediction is that Basso did 'burn the matches' and he will finish no
better than sixth - behind Ullrich, behind Landis, behind others.

Curtis L. Russell
Odenton, MD (USA)
Just someone on two wheels...

RonSonic

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Jun 22, 2006, 9:39:20 AM6/22/06
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And have precisely the correct dope combination for the day.

Ron

Simon Brooke

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Jun 22, 2006, 9:59:15 AM6/22/06
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in message <1150981152.5...@u72g2000cwu.googlegroups.com>,

yeahyeah ('pedal...@hotmail.com') wrote:

>
> h squared wrote:
>> yeahyeah wrote:
>>
>> > Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
>> > first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash.
>>
>> yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
>> is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
>> to go look at the stage details though.)
>>
>> > Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One
>> > high-speed get-off and he's gonna be screwed.
>>
>> wait, i thought you had a soft spot for the man.
>>
(http://groups.google.com/group/rec.bicycles.racing/msg/1cb1397940777406?hl=en&)
>>
>> or maybe the two issues are separate, dunno.
>

> Actually, the girly man thing was a reference to that fake Ullrich
> Myspace page... I still think Basso is adorable, but he just dominated
> too much in the Giro to make it fun. I just want ol' Ulle to finally
> get his 2nd TdF win.

To be honest, so do I. He's worked so hard for it over so many years and
won't have many more chances. But I don't think he will. Essentially
he's a second Poulidor - a great cyclist who spent his best years in the
shadow of a greater cyclist (much as it pains me to say that). Basso is
taking the role of Merckx - the rising star to take over from
Headstrong's Anquetil. Not that I'm suggesting that Headstrong is fit to
fill Monsieur Chrono's boots, of course.

It's sad. Ullrich deserves the win if anyone does. But it doesn't alter
the fact that he isn't going to get it - even if Basso does fail.

[ This .sig subject to change without notice ]


yeahyeah

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Jun 22, 2006, 10:21:46 AM6/22/06
to

Scott wrote:
> h squared wrote:
> >
> > yeah, i want him to win, and i'm almost more afraid to find that there
> > is a steep downhill finish than a steep uphill finish... (i'm too lazy
> > to go look at the stage details though.)
> >
> > heather
>
> Yea, but Floyd is a descending mofo, a skill he learned as a mountain
> biker. Ullrich may sink like a stone, but he doesn't descend like one.

Jeez, the guy rides into a ditch on one descent and he's labeled a poor
descender...
I seem to recall a certain muscular German attacking on the descent a
couple years ago (wasn't that the stage where Pants outsprinted
Kloden?).
Floyd is a good descender, but not as fast as Savoldelli. What about
the Falcon? We probably shouldn't discount him in this tour. I doubt
he'll be domestique for George by stage 16.

fred....@yahoo.com

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Jun 22, 2006, 11:08:43 AM6/22/06
to

yeahyeah wrote:
> Jeez, the guy rides into a ditch on one descent and he's labeled a poor
> descender...

Reminds me of a saying about how you can be an engineer and build
bridges all your life, and no one remembers you as Joe the bridge
builder, but you suck one cock and you're Joe Cocksucker till the day
you die.

Fred

jeremy

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Jun 22, 2006, 11:14:30 AM6/22/06
to
Here's another guess.

1. Ullrich
2. Cadel Evans
3. Floyd
4. Valverde
5. Leipheimer
6. Vino
7. Menchov
8. Vandevelde
9. Karpets
10. Savoldelli

DNF - Basso

Bookmark it!

jeremy

h squared

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Jun 22, 2006, 11:19:37 AM6/22/06
to
yeahyeah wrote:

> Jeez, the guy rides into a ditch on one descent and he's labeled a poor
> descender...

the humor of the incident makes it memorable :)

> I seem to recall a certain muscular German attacking on the descent a
> couple years ago (wasn't that the stage where Pants outsprinted
> Kloden?).
> Floyd is a good descender, but not as fast as Savoldelli. What about
> the Falcon? We probably shouldn't discount him in this tour. I doubt
> he'll be domestique for George by stage 16.

mmmm, muscular, outsprinted, descender, tour, domestique...good talk.

heather

Donald Munro

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Jun 22, 2006, 12:42:36 PM6/22/06
to
yeahyeah wrote:
>> Jeez, the guy rides into a ditch on one descent and he's labeled a poor
>> descender...

fred.garvin wrote:
> but you suck one cock and you're Joe Cocksucker till the day
> you die.

Thats a bit of a below the belt attack on poor heather.

Curtis L. Russell

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Jun 22, 2006, 12:55:25 PM6/22/06
to
On 22 Jun 2006 08:14:30 -0700, "jeremy" <jeremy...@gmail.com>
wrote:

>Here's another guess.
>
>1. Ullrich
>2. Cadel Evans
>3. Floyd
>4. Valverde
>5. Leipheimer
>6. Vino
>7. Menchov
>8. Vandevelde
>9. Karpets
>10. Savoldelli
>
>DNF - Basso
>
>Bookmark it!
>
>jeremy

I'll buy this as a good guess and even a prediction. Not sure who I'm
putting between Ullrich and Floyd, but think I'm more likely to swap
your number 2 and 4. Nah, don't think I can pick Evans in the top 10.
Maybe top 15, with Beloki (wishful thinking).

So I'll go this far...

1. Ullrich
2. Valverde
3. Landis
4. Hincapie
5. Vino
6. Menchov
7. Basso
8. Leipheimer
9. Kloden
10. Michael Rogers (to have an Aussie in the top ten)

I think that 9 and 10 will happen because protecting the Diesel is
easier than launching LA up the mountain day after day.

Rasmussen to repeat in the mountains, but I'll pass on points leader
this year, partly because I really don't care for once.

h squared

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Jun 22, 2006, 2:32:18 PM6/22/06
to
Donald Munro wrote:

excuse me?!

if that's how it going to be, i'd rather be called a big hugh cocksucker
than a joe average cocksucker, thank you very much.

h (unwilling to sign full name to this post) h

yeahyeah

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Jun 22, 2006, 3:56:52 PM6/22/06
to

jeremy wrote:
> Here's another guess.
>
> 1. Ullrich
> 2. Cadel Evans
> 3. Floyd
> 4. Valverde
> 5. Leipheimer
> 6. Vino
> 7. Menchov
> 8. Vandevelde
> 9. Karpets
> 10. Savoldelli
>
> DNF - Basso
>
> Bookmark it!
>
> jeremy


You can take your candyass picks over to
http://www.fantasycyclinggame.com - apparently the prize list will be
up later on today.

It's reminiscent of the old Performance Bike game in concept: very
simple pick a team and go with it. None of this swapping riders
mid-Tour, etc.

Stu Fleming

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Jun 22, 2006, 4:39:06 PM6/22/06
to

Or "above the navel attack", it depends.

Donald Munro

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Jun 22, 2006, 5:22:39 PM6/22/06
to
h squared wrote:
> h (unwilling to sign full name to this post) h

You could always sign yourself as hugh then, however you is probably the
correct rbr fonetic speling.

jeremy

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Jun 22, 2006, 5:48:58 PM6/22/06
to
> You can take your candyass picks over to http://www.fantasycyclinggame.com

If I understand the rbr definition of 'candyass' correctly, then I
would pick Basso to win on my fantasy team.

jeremy

Scott

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Jun 22, 2006, 5:59:04 PM6/22/06
to

Simon Brooke wrote:

>
> It's sad. Ullrich deserves the win if anyone does. But it doesn't alter
> the fact that he isn't going to get it - even if Basso does fail.
>
> --
>

Okay, I'll bite: If Basso fails and Ullrich won't win, then who does?

Simon Brooke

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Jun 22, 2006, 6:50:44 PM6/22/06
to
in message <1151013544....@g10g2000cwb.googlegroups.com>, Scott
('hendric...@hotmail.com') wrote:

> Simon Brooke wrote:
>
>> It's sad. Ullrich deserves the win if anyone does. But it doesn't
>> alter the fact that he isn't going to get it - even if Basso does
>> fail.
>

> Okay, I'll bite: If Basso fails and Ullrich won't win, then who does?

Somebody who can climb. Which means, of course, on this years form, not
Hincapie, not Savoldeli, not di Luca, not Simoni... Oh, and not
Rasmussen either, since although being able to climb is important, being
able to time trial also matters. Sandy Casar? It would cheer the French
up a bit.

Iraq war: it's time for regime change...
... go now, Tony, while you can still go with dignity.
[update 18 months after this .sig was written: it's still relevant]

h squared

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Jun 22, 2006, 7:29:23 PM6/22/06
to

dumbass, for my lameass joke to work, we need to spell it "huge".
anyway, even though it was lame and only two people could possibly get
it, i was quite proud of my reply, especially since i was nearly
speechless with the shock of being called a cocksucker in civil and
polite rbr society.

h, aka, cocksucker

b...@mambo.ucolick.org

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Jun 22, 2006, 7:33:19 PM6/22/06
to
Simon Brooke wrote:
> Scott ('hendric...@hotmail.com') wrote:
> > Simon Brooke wrote:
> >
> >> It's sad. Ullrich deserves the win if anyone does. But it doesn't
> >> alter the fact that he isn't going to get it - even if Basso does
> >> fail.
> >
> > Okay, I'll bite: If Basso fails and Ullrich won't win, then who does?
>
> Somebody who can climb. Which means, of course, on this years form, not
> Hincapie, not Savoldeli, not di Luca, not Simoni... Oh, and not
> Rasmussen either, since although being able to climb is important, being
> able to time trial also matters. Sandy Casar? It would cheer the French
> up a bit.

Alexandre,

If Sandy Casar outclimbs Ullrich with any consistency, even
L'Equipe's belief in the peloton-at-two-speeds theory will be
severely tested.

Last year, how many people consistently outclimbed Ullrich?
Perhaps Armstrong, Rasmussen, Basso; with Mancebo,
Leipheimer, Vino coming in a little behind Ullrich on average. Then
Landis, Kloden, Evans, maybe Christophe-Moreau-of-all-people.
Valverde could have been better, but he didn't finish and we didn't
get a sense of his consistency.

The fact is, in July, Ullrich has been a damn good climber for a
Sausage Creature. That doesn't mean he will win, but it means
somebody has to be a top-of-the-line climber _and_ not lose much
in the time trials to compete with Der Wurstjunge.

I wouldn't say Ullrich "deserves" the win - nobody deserves a Tour
win, they have to earn it. Well, okay, maybe Pou-Pou or Zoetemelk
deserved it. If Jan does manage to win it, it may be in spite of
himself, but you shouldn't count him out early.

Tom Kunich

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Jun 22, 2006, 9:58:43 PM6/22/06
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"Bob Martin" <bob.m...@excite.com> wrote in message
news:nJrmg.23305$n13....@newsfe2-win.ntli.net...

And I'm guessing he's 4th.


hiza...@yahoo.com

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Jun 23, 2006, 1:10:22 AM6/23/06
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My guess is that Basso will try to win TT's and try and make a early
decisive attack in the first mountains. As for Ullrich his best chance
might be to win the early TT's and try to burn Basso out on the flat
stages. This scenario is rather unlikely since Basso is a balanced
rider with a strong team. The only other scenario for Ullrich is to
play other teams against Basso in the mountains.
yeahyeah wrote:
> Simon Brooke wrote:
> > in message <1150833524.1...@u72g2000cwu.googlegroups.com>, Scott
> > ('hendric...@hotmail.com') wrote:
>
> > Ullrich will take a minute at most out of Basso in each individual time
> > trial - stage 7 and stage 19. Basso will take more out of Ullrich on
> > each of stage 11 (Val d'Aran) stage 15 (Alpe d'Huez), stage 16 (la
> > Toussuire). Therefore Basso will have the yellow jersey in Paris.
>
> Stage 11's finish is 13km at a lowly 5.5% - I don't think that's going
> to be steep enough for Basso to get much of an advantage.
> Stage 15, might not be as decisive either if things go like 2003
> Alpe d'Huez match ups:
> 2003: Basso 1:24 faster than Ullrich
> 2004: (ITT) Ullrich 1:22 faster than Basso
>
> Stage 16 will be hard for Ullrich, but the finishing climb is 18.4 @6%
> - not as steep as Plateau de Beille in 2004 where Ullrich lost 2:42,
> and similar to Courchevel where Ulle held Basso to 1:12 in 2005.
>
> I'm betting on Ullrich using the two long TT's to put time into the
> rest, and holding his own in the mountains, limiting his losses to less
> than a minute on these 3 stages and taking the yellow into Paris. I'm
> betting on Basso having one catastrophic TT where he loses 2+ minutes
> (but not as bad as the 6' he lost in '03).
>
> Finally, bumbles bounce. This year the first real mountains don't come
> until stage 10. Ullrich stands a much better chance of surviving the
> first flat week without getting screwed up in some crash. The man went
> through the back window of a car and finished on the podium of the
> tour. Basso, on the other hand, is a fragile little girly-man. One

Tuschinski

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Jun 23, 2006, 3:43:47 AM6/23/06
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> The fact is, in July, Ullrich has been a damn good climber for a
> Sausage Creature.

That is what is so amusing about it all. The last 7 years there has
been ONE rider who was consistently better in climbs: Lance. Basso is
on the upswing and he fits the bill as better climber too. But then?

Rasmussen? He had a good year, but the years before he didn't
CONSISTENTLY finish near Jan
Mancebo? No way
Leipheimer? *giggle*
Hamilton? Nope, many stages where he lost to Jan.

I guess all these guys are even fatter than Jan^^

> That doesn't mean he will win, but it means
> somebody has to be a top-of-the-line climber _and_ not lose much
> in the time trials to compete with Der Wurstjunge.
>

The only person that comes to mind is Basso. All the other competitor
have never proven to be better (consistent!) climbers than Jan. Of
course, there are the dark horses and there might be a new star that
stands up, but statistically it will be Basso vs. Jan.

And I think Basso will win :(

Donald Munro

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Jun 23, 2006, 5:20:35 AM6/23/06
to
h squared wrote:
> dumbass, for my lameass joke to work, we need to spell it "huge".
> anyway, even though it was lame and only two people could possibly get
> it, i was quite proud of my reply, especially since i was nearly
> speechless with the shock of being called a cocksucker in civil and
> polite rbr society.

Sorry, my mental facilities are not at their peak late at night after I
receive my 2 pints of hyper-oxygenated blood - I probably need to add some
dutch pot belge to the recipe to wake me up.

Anyway don't worry according to this dictionary, cocksuckers are male:
http://members.tripod.com/~nelson_g/english.html

simplified spelling is all right, but, like chastity, you can carry it too
far.
Mark Twain AKA Benjamin Franklin

Ron Ruff

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Jun 23, 2006, 6:49:29 AM6/23/06
to

Simon Brooke wrote:
> Exactly, that's what I believe. Someone who's a great climber but a so-so
> time trialler is always going to beat someone who is a great time
> trialler but a so-so climber on general classification, because the time
> you tend to lose when things go wrong is so much higher in the
> mountains.

Tell that to the Chicken...

Ewoud Dronkert

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Jun 23, 2006, 8:15:31 AM6/23/06
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On Thu, 22 Jun 2006 16:29:23 -0700, h squared wrote:
>dumbass, for my lameass joke to work, we need to spell it "huge".
>anyway, even though it was lame and only two people could possibly get
>it

I thought you were channeling Divine Brown.

--
E. Dronkert

Carl Sundquist

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Jun 23, 2006, 10:04:26 AM6/23/06
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"Donald Munro" <fat-d...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:449bb07c$0$12369$ec3e...@news.usenetmonster.com...

>
> Sorry, my mental facilities are not at their peak late at night after I
> receive my 2 pints of hyper-oxygenated blood -

Try http://www.thebigox.com/


Tom Kunich

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Jun 23, 2006, 12:27:46 PM6/23/06
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"yeahyeah" <pedal...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1150986106.6...@p79g2000cwp.googlegroups.com...

>
> Floyd is a good descender, but not as fast as Savoldelli. What about
> the Falcon? We probably shouldn't discount him in this tour. I doubt
> he'll be domestique for George by stage 16.

That is an interesting possibility. Savoldelli certainly is favored by this
Tour course and George and he could be co-leaders in truth.

Donald Munro

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Jun 24, 2006, 12:02:08 PM6/24/06
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Donald Munro wrote:
>> Sorry, my mental facilities are not at their peak late at night after I
>> receive my 2 pints of hyper-oxygenated blood -

Carl Sundquist wrote:
> Try http://www.thebigox.com/

Don't tell pound about this, or oxygen will be added to the banned list.


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