? are thermals stationary / thermal map possible
Frank
I am a soaring beginner and have a short question:
Do thermals occur with high probability at the same places
or do the places change?
If so, then it should be possible to make a probability map
of thermals, showing where thermals are most likely to find.
(Such a map a could be generated from GPS-Logger-Data and should
be most useful near the starting field to find your first thermal)
Frank
-----------== Posted via Deja News, The Discussion Network ==----------
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Armand A. Medieros
"generally" provide fairly repeatable lift points, but not always in the
EXACT same place. Over the open ground, they move a lot!
Armand
Frank wrote in message <7est67$l7o$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
Sean
Neat idea but solar generated thermals would change depending on the time
of year, time of day and weather conditions.
Many soaring sites have 'more dependable' areas but you can get skunked
there as well.
I fly in the mountains so the local lift (areas where thermals occur with
higher probability) is easily pointed out visually. We usually try and fly
through these areas while still on tow.
There might be a benefit to mapping similar areas on a GPS logger when
flying over flatland though.
The first good thermal is always the toughest one to find...(with the
exception of the last good thermal <g>)
Sean
Frank <fka...@my-dejanews.com> wrote in article
Bob Lepp
out the canopy, not at your GPS, especially close to your home field
where other gliders are being launched. You'll get to learn the 'house'
thermal's position real soon!
Have fun!
Bob
Cragin Shelton
the very questions you raise. He is a soaring pilot and a hang glider
pilot, and wrote the book specifically for the soaring community of
sailplanes, hang gliders, para gliders, as well as ultra lights.
He describes how thermals form and are moved, common thermal triggers,
and myriad other useful details.
I highly recommend you get Dennis's book. It is available from a variety
of locations, including the SSA web page bookstore, the US Hang Gliding
Association web site, http://www.ushga.org and other locations.
Cragin Shelton
USHGA Intermediate HG Pilot (H3)
Al
I also note the altitude that I found it at.
Now for the bit that will get the group really going.....
I have found consistantly that on any given day I can return to that
waypoint and be almost assured lift. This is also based on the area I fly
at. we have consistant winds in the summer afternoons (weather systems
excluded) Thus on long glides I "join the dots" on the GPS.
Believe it or not this technique works.
The same can be said for wave systems. I have a map in my GPS (which
supports 750waypoints) of all the hot spots I have found wave flying.
This does not stop you looking out the canopy and finding thermals in other
locations. but based on the fact that thermals (strong regular ones) are
triggered from the sames thermal source there is no harm in mapping them. I
remember one final glide where I was a bit below glideslope. I simply
looked at my GPS and steared towards the nearest thermal waypoint I had
stored.... sure enough boom 10 knots 2 turns later I was set.
As a low time XC pilot myself I find this is a great aid and confidence
builder when pushing out and exploring.
Final thought.. All this tech is a tool.. use it accordingly but do not
rely on it. Use it to enhance your performance and confidence.
This pearl of wisdom was bought to you from the people that bought you
Geese at 18,000ft.
Regards
Frank
> Hi Frank,
>
> Neat idea but solar generated thermals would change depending on the time
> of year, time of day and weather conditions.
Hello Sean,
your experience is in contradiction to what Al describes in this thread.
Al describes, that he is able to mark good thermals whith his GPS and find
them again on another flight.
Let me point out, what I mean by a "map". With map I mean not a paper map,
but rather a computer-generated map, which is parametrized by wind velocity
and direction, time of the day, time of the year and perhaps other parameters.
My assumption is, that under similar conditions you will find thermals at the
same places, because the circumstances for the development of the thermals are
the same.
Flydallas
map real time thermals on your screen. It puts a blip on your screen
everywhere the vario detects lift.
You can see yourself on the screen relative to the thermal.
Not sure if is compensates for wind drift or not.
Kent
Miles Bailey
I think that over time you may notice that thermals appear frequently in the
same place, however, you must remember that thermals are solar generated,
and so are likely to vary in strength. I know this because over the last
three days I've picked up 3kts of lift off a golf course that I have never
seen before.....
hope this has answered your question
MilesB
Frank wrote in message <7est67$l7o$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
>Hy,
>
>I am a soaring beginner and have a short question:
>
>Do thermals occur with high probability at the same places
>or do the places change?
>
>If so, then it should be possible to make a probability map
>of thermals, showing where thermals are most likely to find.
>
>(Such a map a could be generated from GPS-Logger-Data and should
>be most useful near the starting field to find your first thermal)
>
Sean
>>a computer-generated map, which is parametrized by wind velocity
and direction, time of the day, time of the year and perhaps other
parameters.<<
If you can program your 'map' with all those parameters you'll have an
amazing resource.
Keep in touch.
Sean
Frank <fka...@my-dejanews.com> wrote in article
<7eut13$dfr$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
> Hi Frank,
>
> Neat idea but solar generated thermals would change depending on the time
> of year, time of day and weather conditions.
Hello Sean,
your experience is in contradiction to what Al describes in this thread.
Al describes, that he is able to mark good thermals whith his GPS and find
them again on another flight.
Let me point out, what I mean by a "map". With map I mean not a paper map,
but rather a computer-generated map, which is parametrized by wind velocity
and direction, time of the day, time of the year and perhaps other
parameters.
My assumption is, that under similar conditions you will find thermals at
the
same places, because the circumstances for the development of the thermals
are
the same.
Frank
bruns...@my-dejanews.com
Frank <fka...@my-dejanews.com> wrote:
> Do thermals occur with high probability at the same places
> or do the places change?
>
> If so, then it should be possible to make a probability map
> of thermals, showing where thermals are most likely to find.
Such a map actually exists for Denmark (only covering the Jutland Peninsula,
as far as I remember).
It consists of two maps. The first one shows the best areas for thermals, and
basically maps high and dry ground. Being a flat country surrounded by water
this has to be modified for the actual day based on wind-direction and
strength.
The other maps is even more interesting. It is a plot of outlandings for a
number of experienced pilots over a period, and thus gives you a statistical
plot of areas with bad thermal conditions. Looking at the map one will find
that there are areas with a very high proportion of outlandings compared to
other areas. I can personally testify that some of those bad spots really are
bad - just showing, that a map is worth nothing if the pilot lacks the brains
to read it BEFORE the flight instead of AFTER :-(
As far as I know the maps were originally compiled by Ib Braes (who then left
the country for Australia - clever move).
Bo Brunsgaard
Std. Libelle OY-XKB
Frank Kaiser
> Such a map actually exists for Denmark (only covering the Jutland Peninsula,
> as far as I remember).
Hello Bo,
how fine grained is this map. I have seen such a map for whole Germany
somewhere in the internet, but it is not fine grained enough to find
local thermals.
Frank
Frank Kaiser
> There is a new-ish hang gliding vario that works in conjuntion with your GPS
to
> map real time thermals on your screen. It puts a blip on your screen
> everywhere the vario detects lift.
Hello Kent,
where can I find more Info about this vario?
Is it somewhere on the net?
bruns...@my-dejanews.com
Frank Kaiser <fka...@my-dejanews.com> wrote:
>
> > Such a map actually exists for Denmark (only covering the Jutland Peninsula,
> > as far as I remember).
>
> Hello Bo,
>
> how fine grained is this map. I have seen such a map for whole Germany
> somewhere in the internet, but it is not fine grained enough to find
> local thermals.
>
It's only an area map. As someone pointed out earlier in this thread, with
the possible exception of mountain regions, you cannot predict any specific
thermal. What you can do, and what this map does, is to point out general
areas that will produce better thermals on an average. In fact, you can
produce a rough map like that from a normal map that shows heights, river
beds etc.
You can use a map like this to plan tasks in such a way that your route will
stick to the best areas, but that's all. For instance, our club has a standard
306 km triangle that is laid out to run up and down an area of fairly high and
dry ground, thus giving you a better than average chance of consistently good
thermals "somewhere" on track. But it doesn't guarantee that you'll find them.
Once you've gotten a bit of experience of the local area around you home
field you'll develop some local knowledge of where thermals usually form. But
you can still end up disappointed and standing on the ground 5 km out because
the thermal that's always there - well, it wasn't today.
So, to quote a song by the Norwegian band Little Eden: "there's no shortcut
road to the promised land" - you have to go out there, fly, learn and keep
learning. That's part of what makes it so much fun really - you're always
learning.
Bo Brunsgaard
Std. Libelle OY-XKB
-----------== Posted via Deja News, The Discussion Network ==----------
Steve Sovis
> http://www.dejanews.com/ Search, Read, Discuss, or Start Your Own
I suspect there is great potential here. With enough of the right
parameters predictability would improve to the point of real usability.
We could start by having everyone enter their "house" thermals. Think
of it as a sort of extended turnpoint database. To be really useful we
should concentrate on one major soaring center. Any ideas on how to get
started?
Steve Sovis
Steve Sovis
Steve Sovis "US"
Al
>
>Steve Sovis "US"
Go flying XC with your GPS!!!
Al
DFitzpa144
in some favourable locations eg. over sunny hillsides. In moderate wind
conditions, thermals tend to START at prefered locations and then drift
downwind in streets. This has been confirmed by high power radar observations.
Try watching the sky for an hour or two and see how the clouds behave. Not
every cloud has a silver lining, but all fairweather Cu have thermals
underneath!
Frank Kaiser
> I suspect there is great potential here. With enough of the right
> parameters predictability would improve to the point of real usability.
>
> We could start by having everyone enter their "house" thermals. Think
> of it as a sort of extended turnpoint database. To be really useful we
> started?
>
Hi Steve,
the problem is Entering of the Data.
My suggestion is to automatically extract thermals from GPS-Logger - Data.
Vision:
After a flying-day the logger data are transferred to a PC and
later via Internet into a central Database, so that the data of many
Pilots contribute to a detailed thermal-map.
How could we get started:
I am a Software-Developer and could make a map-software. But I am also
a beginner in soaring and and have no logger-data yet availible.
Can someone provide me with sample logger data?
Gerhard Wesp
Frank Kaiser <fka...@my-dejanews.com> wrote:
>Vision:
> After a flying-day the logger data are transferred to a PC and
> later via Internet into a central Database, so that the data of many
> Pilots contribute to a detailed thermal-map.
NOOO! it is already technically possible to collect the data _online_,
that is as soon as a pilot finds a thermal, all other pilots could
be directed to it by their gps's. over the flying day the accuracy of
the thermal map would steadily improve. lateron (or even online), the
data can be processed to obtain statistical information about the
thermal strengths/locations and other interesting things (correlation
with wind, other weather factors,...).
the data could either be broadcasted
by the plane who collects them, or sent to a central server (``thermal
server'') to which the other pilots have access via a wireless internet
connection.
ITSP (internet thermal server protocol) anyone? ;-)
greetings,
-gerhard
--
| Gerhard Wesp | ++43 (0)662 8044 5320 (office) | ++43 (0)662 630329 (home)
| http://www.cosy.sbg.ac.at/~gwesp
| Caution: Cape does not enable user to fly.
| -- Batman costume warning label, Wal-Mart, 1995.
Frank Kaiser
> NOOO! it is already technically possible to collect the data _online_,
> that is as soon as a pilot finds a thermal, all other pilots could
> be directed to it by their gps's.
Im sure that it's technically possible to do that, the question is how to make
an usable implementation available soon.
could this become a new open source project?
> the data could either be broadcasted
> by the plane who collects them, or sent to a central server (``thermal
> server'') to which the other pilots have access via a wireless internet
> connection.
To share data of a single day rather than rely on statistical data of
longer time frames is a nice idea. Perhaps a combination of both might be
useful.
Establishing a wireless internet connection might be a problem.
Ruud J. Holswilder
<fka...@my-dejanews.com> wrote:
>
>the problem is Entering of the Data.
>My suggestion is to automatically extract thermals from GPS-Logger - Data.
>
>Vision:
> After a flying-day the logger data are transferred to a PC and
> later via Internet into a central Database, so that the data of many
> Pilots contribute to a detailed thermal-map.
>
>How could we get started:
> I am a Software-Developer and could make a map-software. But I am also
> a beginner in soaring and and have no logger-data yet availible.
> Can someone provide me with sample logger data?
>
IGCview marks all the thermals by drawing a box around them, so the
tool of thermal marking is already available.
You can contant me by email for further details.
Rgds.
Ruud Holswilder.
In case of reply via email, remove the NOSPAM in the return address.
Al
I have the servers and space available to start such a project.
I will donate it initialy and the relevant ODBC sockets etc.
All we need to do is narrow this down to a specification of what information
we want stored.
Anyone want to rise to the challenge.
Frank Kaiser wrote in message <7f4grp$7k1$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
Frank Kaiser
yesterday I got an email from a racing pilot stating to be a former
USA World Team Member.
In short he confirmed me that a thermal map would make sense from his point
of view and would likely be strongly demanded by racing pilots.
He also is willing to support tests.
I think we should think about how to progress to an open source implementation
of the idea of mapping thermals.
Anyone who is interested to participate on the development of such a tool:
please write me an email or append a posting.
Like Al I have my own webserver and will perhaps make a new website
available dedicated to the project.
Steve Sovis
>
> Hi,
>
> yesterday I got an email from a racing pilot stating to be a former
> USA World Team Member.
>
> In short he confirmed me that a thermal map would make sense from his point
> of view and would likely be strongly demanded by racing pilots.
> He also is willing to support tests.
>
> I think we should think about how to progress to an open source implementation
> of the idea of mapping thermals.
>
> Anyone who is interested to participate on the development of such a tool:
> please write me an email or append a posting.
>
> Like Al I have my own webserver and will perhaps make a new website
> available dedicated to the project.
>
> Frank
>
One idea for how to continue for now:
Start related threads on:
-what sort of specific data should be collected in addition to the
thermal's strength and location [eg. time of day, cloud base, weather
conditions (wind velocity & direction etc.)].
-what soaring site(s) to concentrate on as initial site(s) to test a
pilot system.
-the objectives and general operation of a "thermal mapping system
TMS". real time vs. historical or both.
Then see who's drawn to the discussion and what resources they'd like to
bring to a pilot development program. If a skillful quorum emerges,
begin discussions on the development process and any necessary
organizational mechanisms (a dedicated development web site is a
teriffic idea). TMS itself is a great idea, but I'm not sure there are
enough of the right resources interested to pursue a pilot. Let's
continue to figure out how to find interested resources.
Steve Sovis "US"
Michael Deleo
> Any ideas on how to get started?
> >
> >Steve Sovis "US"
>
> Go flying XC with your GPS!!!
>
> Al
Comparing two different gps traces, one where someone made a low save
in a strong thermal under a cloud street and the fellow above him
hammered along the same street at cloudbase never stopping to turn,
outta be an interesting challenge for someone. The same case would
apply for wave, shearline, etc where someone may not stop to
"thermal".
Somehow climb rate, distance over time and speed need to be
compared??? Check out the traces from Carl Herold, Jim Payne, the
Minden guys and others. You don't see a huge amount of time spent
circling.
Anyway, better get some large and fast servers... you're gonna need
'em!
ps: no server vendor recommendations implied in the signature.
Mike
--
______________________________________________________
Michael Deleo - Market Development Engineering
Sun Microsystems Computer Company
Tel: 650 786-4084 Fax: 650 786-9555
Email: michae...@eng.sun.com
F.L. Whiteley
Steve Sovis wrote in message <37176E...@shore.net>...
>Frank Kaiser wrote:
>>
>> Hi,
>>
>> yesterday I got an email from a racing pilot stating to be a former
>> USA World Team Member.
>>
>> In short he confirmed me that a thermal map would make sense from his
point
>> of view and would likely be strongly demanded by racing pilots.
>> He also is willing to support tests.
>>
>> I think we should think about how to progress to an open source
implementation
>> of the idea of mapping thermals.
>>
Collect all IGC format logs. All needed data is in these. The format will
allow pilots to upload their logs into the data warehouse.
Development of data mining applications will occur by those interested in
viewing the data. It may be possible to collect archival observed weather
data later to improve resolution of the data.
Tablespace and design of the database will require some thought. Monthly
tables or geographic areas? You could be getting 10 to 30000 logs per month
or more at 2000+ records per log.
Some thoughts on developing information applications. Cruise speed can be
derived from the data as can winds from drifts. Current applications like
Taskfinder have functions for this. By accepting some mean for glider
performance (and accepting variation in pilot skill) energies can be
calculated for long street cruises. Then you simply query across geographic
parameters and map the hot and cold spots.
Some bright young meteorology grad student in 2030 will probably query the
data and discover that the PW-5 World Class Contest of 2007 and it's
resulting "Butterfly Effect" was responsible for the great North American
drought of 2010-2015 and that the total effects of 100 years of soaring
flight have triggered global cooling and the next ice age forecast for the
27th century.
Good thing large hard drives are cheap.
F. Whiteley
David Leonard
http://acro.harvard.edu/SSA/JL/LOGS/
Lots of data over a reasonable\y small geographic area over a short time
period. Ought to be enough data to start trying theories on.
Dave Leonard
ZL
Al
I think the use of waypoint files rather than logs would be better otherwise
we will be buried with IGC files!!! as opposed to 200char's per flight.
www.silentfligth.com will have posted in a day or so a page to distribute
the relevant information based on discussions on this newsgroup.
Al
(visual studio at the ready)
Al
Stick to the high ground... ;-)
Al
O'Neal
models, wind speed, wind direction, and temperature we can project the
"most likely" areas on course... I might even find that home field
thermal again...
Bob.
Frank Kaiser
> I think the use of waypoint files rather than logs would be better otherwise
> we will be buried with IGC files!!! as opposed to 200char's per flight.
the question is wherer to get the waypoints from. My suggestion is to
calculate waypoints by appliing some criteria on IGC files, and then store
only the waypoints. IMO it is important that the marking of a waypoint is not
a result of individual decision but rather a result of a reproducible
automatic decision. By using automatic decision you ensure waypoints being
evenly distributed in a map.
F.L. Whiteley
won't cut it. You might just as well ask your sage old pilots where the
best spots are and places to avoid and mark it on your map. The point is,
we now have the technical means and data to derive the information directly.
The Brits did a micro meteorology study in the '70's and discovered a lot
about what crop should go where. They measured the sun, wind, and moisture
field by field by field to get the required resolution of data to garner the
information. Waypoints, like interviewing, are trying to distill things at
the information level. You have to gather the data.
F. Whiteley
Frank Kaiser wrote in message <7f9fd9$ija$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
Frank Kaiser
I do not understand fully what you want to say to me:
> Thought you wanted to know where the thermals are likely to be. Waypoints
> won't cut it. You might just as well ask your sage old pilots where the
> best spots are and places to avoid and mark it on your map.
Might be a Method too. But tell me please, why this thingi seems to be of
interest for a former World Team member who surely is as good as the sage old
pilots.
> The point is, we now have the technical means and data to derive the >
information directly.
What do you mean by the term "more directly"? Derive information from what?
> The Brits did a micro meteorology study in the '70's and discovered a lot
> about what crop should go where. They measured the sun, wind, and moisture
> field by field by field to get the required resolution of data to garner the
> information.
What was the result of this study. Do they have a map or a way to calculate
a map? What is the input into the map calculation?
> Waypoints, like interviewing, are trying to distill things at
> the information level. You have to gather the data.
Of course, waypoints are the result of a measurement and a contribution to the
measurement is done by a sailplane itself while flying and using a
flight-logger.
Hope you could make me understand what you wrote.
Thanks: Frank
Al
Now you are getting off track..
Remember that the thermal map will show an indication of where lift is not a
garuntee of lift to be there. thus waypoint data is more that suitable.
So go fly with your GPS's and mark every boomer you find.
Email your user waypoint file to me as a text file.
I will publish the rest
Regards
Al
Frank Kaiser wrote in message <7fa86c$512$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
Mike Lindsay
<dfitz...@aol.com> writes
--
Mike Lindsay
cg...@onwe.co.za
> Frank Kaiser wrote:
> >
> >
> > I think we should think about how to progress to an open source implementation
> > of the idea of mapping thermals.
Yes open source.
> >
> > Anyone who is interested to participate on the development of such a tool:
> > please write me an email or append a posting.
> >
> > Like Al I have my own webserver and will perhaps make a new website
> > available dedicated to the project.
> >
> > Frank
> >
>
> One idea for how to continue for now:
>
> Start related threads on:
>
> -what sort of specific data should be collected in addition to the
> thermal's strength and location [eg. time of day, cloud base, weather
> conditions (wind velocity & direction etc.)].
>
> -what soaring site(s) to concentrate on as initial site(s) to test a
> pilot system.
>
> -the objectives and general operation of a "thermal mapping system
> TMS". real time vs. historical or both.
>
> Then see who's drawn to the discussion and what resources they'd like to
> bring to a pilot development program. If a skillful quorum emerges,
> begin discussions on the development process and any necessary
> organizational mechanisms (a dedicated development web site is a
> teriffic idea). TMS itself is a great idea, but I'm not sure there are
> enough of the right resources interested to pursue a pilot. Let's
> continue to figure out how to find interested resources.
>
> Steve Sovis "US"
>
Some advice based on my knowledge/experience in:
1. Gliding. Sorry, I'm no longer active, since the political/crime
situation here (S.African - good soaring conditions), precludes
inessential road travel.
2. Instrumentation, computerisation both hardware & software:
These resources are, for "personality-type" reasons, strong in the
soaring community.
3. Management of distrubuted collaboration:
This is were such projects fail; after starting with great enthusiasm.
A. avoid the common pitfall: "I've got a XYZ, lets use that".
B. use low tech (commonly available resources), to not preclude
potential contributors.
C.>Let's continue to figure out how to find interested resources.
If it's open & easily accessable, potential contributers will join.
The problem will not be in finding 'members', but in controlling info.
Initiators, organisers, in-depth-contributors are often different
persons/skills.
Usually the core resources are available, but poor structure leads to
chaos & failure.
Thanks, Chris Glur. cg...@onwe.co.za
Dennis Eckert
Frank Kaiser wrote in message <7f9fd9$ija$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
>Hello Al,
>
>> I think the use of waypoint files rather than logs would be better otherwise
>> we will be buried with IGC files!!! as opposed to 200char's per flight.
>
>the question is wherer to get the waypoints from. My suggestion is to
>calculate waypoints by appliing some criteria on IGC files, and then store
>only the waypoints. IMO it is important that the marking of a waypoint is not
>a result of individual decision but rather a result of a reproducible
>automatic decision. By using automatic decision you ensure waypoints being
>evenly distributed in a map.
>
B Lacovara
flight. Looks interesting. http://www.ballvarios.com/
Bob
Frank Kaiser
> Ball Varios has a software package that produces a 3-D view of an entire
> flight. Looks interesting. http://www.ballvarios.com/
looks very interesting but still is not what I understand as thermal map.
What we need is a software which integrates flight log data of flights from
many pilots to something like a "possibility to find a thermal"-map or
landscape.
The package is still nothing more than an impressive presentation of a single
flight.
Frank Kaiser
I thought about a way to proceed quickly to a thermal map.
Here is my suggestion:
- Write a small piece of software, to convert IGS GNSS FR files
into a format readable by a standard package. (see next point)
- Analyze the converted files with a statistical Package like SPSS
or a Mathematical Package like Mathematica, Maple, ...
Advantages:
- One can concentrate on finding the right formula, for example to
correct for wind shift, rather than on making a new computer program.
- Because the remaining programming is very small one can play with
different formula-ideas to find out, what works good.
- The mentioned packages all have very good data-presentation modules
built in.
Only very few lines of code are needed to display data.